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Post by indy on Sept 1, 2024 20:26:22 GMT
Unfortunately most information out there re the election is suspect. Twitter is a massive hell-hole. YouTube is replete with individuals wanting more clicks/eyeballs to make money. I'm not against making money, if the information is accurate. But I suspect the tendency is more monetarily based than altruistic. And of course tv, newspapers need to make money to survive. Throw in AI, bots, and furriners ... and I'm heading back into the garden.  While I think that much (but not all) of the election polling is not really suspect--it just has limitations--I also think that of all the terrible things the internet has wrought one of the worst is the ability to turn lying into an occupation. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Sept 1, 2024 23:15:23 GMT
This is interesting. Comparing voter registration from July 21, 2020, to July 21, 2024 (the date Biden withdrew - not sure how that adds up...).
Looks like a lot of women are planning to vote.
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 2, 2024 1:13:39 GMT
Now, as for actual polling of swing states, we are getting some fairly inconsistent messages. Why are Trump and Harris tied in Arizona while the Democratic senate candidate is ahead by 7 points or more? Are voters voting for Trump while not voting for the Trump imitating senate candidate? That seems...unlikely. Same applies to Nevada where the same thing is happening. In NC, the Democratic governor candidate is ahead by nearly double digits but Trump and Harris are tied?
Are people turning out to vote for Trump and leaving the rest of the ballot blank? I think that is likely. Considering the number of ballots cast in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections as compared to prior elections I strongly suspect that a lot of people turned out to vote for the very first time or that they are infrequent voters in the first place. Combine that with my past experiences fielding phone calls at my local tv station on Election Day where the questions from voters tended to be "where is my polling place" (no longer much of a question these days in my state.). I engaged a few of them in further conversation and was frequently told "I only vote in the important elections." Important to who, I don't know. I do know we got lots more phone calls during presidential Election Day than the governor election days and voter turnout reflects that too. I've always theorized that many of those ballots cast for Trump were blank for the rest because they weren't "important." Lack of knowledge about what Congress Critters do leads people to think the president is the most important office. North Carolina's governor race is between a sane person and a madman on the Republican side. The Republican is black too. I don't think he's very entertaining, not like Trump used to be. Those things might account for what we are seeing in the polling. Nevada is always interesting...strong union presence in Las Vegas, strong "leave me alone" individualists in the rest of the state. |
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Post by indy on Sept 2, 2024 11:19:09 GMT
Anything is possible of course, but it seems strange that the effect is so strong. In NV, AZ, MI, WI, OH, and PA, the Dem Senate candidate has consistently been ahead and running stronger than I would expect given the current polling of the presidential race in those states. Even in Texas, Florida, and Nebraska the Senate races are a lot closer than I would expect. I mean, it's early, polling is thin, so it's easy to read in too much so I'm not trying to say anything except this seems a little out of the ordinary and has me scratching my head a bit.
And I agree, the NC governor race is probably explainable by the candidate.
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Post by indy on Sept 2, 2024 12:30:01 GMT
This is interesting. Comparing voter registration from July 21, 2020, to July 21, 2024 (the date Biden withdrew - not sure how that adds up...). Looks like a lot of women are planning to vote. If young women actually turn out to vote, the election is already over and it will be a blue wave. That's a mighty big 'if' though. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Sept 2, 2024 13:42:45 GMT
I started looking at Twitter at the very beginning of the pandemic. At the time, there was virtually no accurate information to be found anywhere - because information did not exist. But at TWitter you could find individuals (virologists/medicos) with more accurate first-hand information or opinions. Not perfect, but it was something. (Like polling.) Now at Twitter, especially with politics and Elon ownership, it's impossible to know what is the truth. Blatant lies, total misrepresentations of who is posting (parody accounts), AI doctored photos, mis-attributed videos, not to mention total idiots and bots, etc. It's best to stay away from the place.
Counting on the youth to actually vote has always been a disappointment. Hopefully this time with reproductive issues on the line, young women have personal interests at stake. Hopefully it won't be another fall when Lucy pulls the football away from Charlie Brown's attempted kick.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,012
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Post by andydp on Sept 3, 2024 14:27:43 GMT
As long as we’re taking about “X” the Brazilian Supreme court has banned X from Brazilian servers for basically lying their patoots off.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,012
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Post by andydp on Sept 3, 2024 15:35:54 GMT
Caught a nice cold while on vacation. Staying in room while friends visit Churchill Downs.
Haven’t heard or read much on Boebert and Taylor Green.
Do you think they told them to sit in a corner and keep quiet until after November ?
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Post by Bact PhD on Sept 3, 2024 16:20:38 GMT
Caught a nice cold while on vacation. Staying in room while friends visit Churchill Downs. Haven’t heard or read much on Boebert and Taylor Green. Fo you think they told them to sit in a corner and keep quiet until after November ? Bummer about the cold. Get better soon! Now that you mention it, that segment of the Planet Twilo has been vewwy, vewwy qwwiet (Elmer Fudd voice). Dunno about being sent to “time-out,” though— neither of them strikes me as the sort to “follow orders” from party bosses. |
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 3, 2024 19:22:43 GMT
Caught a nice cold while on vacation. Staying in room while friends visit Churchill Downs. Haven’t heard or read much on Boebert and Taylor Green. Fo you think they told them to sit in a corner and keep quiet until after November ? Bummer about the cold. Get better soon! Now that you mention it, that segment of the Planet Twilo has been vewwy, vewwy qwwiet (Elmer Fudd voice). Dunno about being sent to “time-out,” though— neither of them strikes me as the sort to “follow orders” from party bosses. Congress hasn't been in session much recently and those two aren't on either House Committee investigating the assassination attempt, so I think they just haven't had a platform for their craziness. MTG is in a safe seat in Georgia. Not sure what will happen with the Boebert race but she might actually have to campaign in the new district. |
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Post by indy on Sept 6, 2024 13:40:49 GMT
Vote.org--a nonpartisan voter registration organization--announced yesterday that they just passed 1 million new voter registrations this cycle. 79% of them were people under 35 years old and 40% of them are after Biden dropped out. That is a lot.
The largest curve ball for polling is estimating the make up of the electorate. They struggle when the composition of the electorate substantially changes for some reason from previous elections. I think that happened when Trump brought out a lot of occasional or first time voters. This may be one of those elections but in the opposite direction.
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Post by Rue Bella on Sept 6, 2024 17:19:24 GMT
The largest curve ball for polling is estimating the make up of the electorate. They struggle when the composition of the electorate substantially changes for some reason from previous elections. I think that happened when Trump brought out a lot of occasional or first time voters. This may be one of those elections but in the opposite direction. Lots of new voters voting blue, plus perhaps a small % of magas simply having gotten bored with the faded, old guy. The racism, misogyny, sexuality, guns, religion and anger are still there, but Trump is no longer the vital force he used to be. If a lot of them were "occasional or first time voters", some may blend back into the shadows. Since casting mail-in ballots have been frowned upon, their way of voting is getting into the car and finding the polling place, they may not want to take the time to actually do so. He (the idea of him) still would be their guy, but is going to vote this time worth the time? |
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Sept 6, 2024 21:57:59 GMT
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Post by Rue Bella on Sept 7, 2024 0:50:58 GMT
Two things of note today. Three, if you count our 106 degree day. Just our usual back-to-school Sept heatwave. But egads.
1. The judge in Trump's 34 felony case has delayed sentencing till after the election. Probably a good thing. Trump would likely have gotten more sympathy votes if he had gotten a harsh-ish sentence. He was not going to get jail time before the election. After the election? Depends on who wins. Either way it's going to be a real circus.
2. Today both Liz and Dick Cheney said they would vote for the Harris ticket. Yesterday it was a McCain son. I doubt endorsements carry much weight. It would be nice however if in the coming weeks there was a steady stream of other prominent Republicans doing the same thing. But they won't if they have any hope of having a future in GOP politics, even appearing on Fox.
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 7, 2024 18:52:25 GMT
Two things of note today. Three, if you count our 106 degree day. Just our usual back-to-school Sept heatwave. But egads. 1. The judge in Trump's 34 felony case has delayed sentencing till after the election. Probably a good thing. Trump would likely have gotten more sympathy votes if he had gotten a harsh-ish sentence. He was not going to get jail time before the election. After the election? Depends on who wins. Either way it's going to be a real circus. 2. Today both Liz and Dick Cheney said they would vote for the Harris ticket. Yesterday it was a McCain son. I doubt endorsements carry much weight. It would be nice however if in the coming weeks there was a steady stream of other prominent Republicans doing the same thing. But they won't if they have any hope of having a future in GOP politics, even appearing on Fox. One little item that the media didn't talk a lot about was that there was a motion to have the testimony of Hope Hicks and another White House employee stricken based on the immunity decision...the idea that if a member of the government was consulted then any evidence that comes from that cannot be used against the president. The judge didn't want to have to rule on that before the election...sending it probably up to the US Supreme Court maybe as an urgency motion. I wish the Cheney endorsements meant something to the undecided voters in the swing states but I suspect they don't know who the Cheneys are and if they do, will think they are just traitors because that is what the little media they look at says about them...and Kinzinger too...traitors to Trump who would care what they say? |
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 11, 2024 2:02:34 GMT
Well that was quite a debate.
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Post by indy on Sept 11, 2024 10:33:42 GMT
Shout out to ABC and the moderators. They actually held Trump's feet to the fire and gave him exactly the right amount of rope to hang himself with. Good job.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,012
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Post by andydp on Sept 11, 2024 11:15:31 GMT
My "Trumpie" FB friends are strangely silent... I'm sure the "best" is yet to come.
Full disclosure: did NOT watch the debate; Red Sox were losing.
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Post by Rue Bella on Sept 11, 2024 12:44:15 GMT
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Post by Rue Bella on Sept 11, 2024 12:57:14 GMT
I also did not watch the debate. Watching Trump for extended minutes was not going to happen. But I have seen clips this morning and it looked good. As one commentator said, Trump's poor performance is not likely to have gained any new voters.
He's just not likable, and looked like sh*t. That shouldn't matter if he actually had substance, but he lacks that too . It reminds me of what was said re the Kennedy-Nixon debate - those who watched on TV thought Kennedy had won, those who listened on the radio thought Nixon had won. In this case, Trump would have lost on both.
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Post by Traveler on Sept 11, 2024 13:09:05 GMT
Well that was quite a debate. Sure was!!! By the end, I was on my third shot of Johnny Black. I hadn't had so much fun in years. Quite the contrast from the Biden debacle. Which was actually a total blessing, albeit in disguise at that moment. But once he withdrew strategically after the RNC convention, it ended up being a sheer genius move. Completely threw the maggots off their feed and totally turned the tables in a way that would have been impossible if had capitulated earlier. Then followed by that dump debacle last night in contrast to Harris really shining, the momentum has clearly shifted. I heard some CNN poll said 92% (!!!) thought he lost last night. I had written off the Dems and no contributions until Biden withdrew. That changed after her candidacy. Now trying to figure where to contribute. Any suggestions here are greatly appreciated. |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Post by andydp on Sept 11, 2024 13:18:40 GMT
Well that was quite a debate. Sure was!!! By the end, I was on my third shot of Johnny Black. I hadn't had so much fun in years. Quite the contrast from the Biden debacle. Which was actually a total blessing, albeit in disguise at that moment. But once he withdrew strategically after the RNC convention, it ended up being a sheer genius move. Completely threw the maggots off their feed and totally turned the tables in a way that would have been impossible if had capitulated earlier. Then followed by that dump debacle last night in contrast to Harris really shining, the momentum has clearly shifted. I heard some CNN poll said 92% (!!!) thought he lost last night. I had written off the Dems and no contributions until Biden withdrew. That changed after her candidacy. Now trying to figure where to contribute. Any suggestions here are greatly appreciated. As stated, did not have an interest in watching the debate. From what I'm reading Trump is now the old confused guy. As for donating: go to the LOCAL office. If you do the online thing, be careful which boxes you check or uncheck. |
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Post by Bact PhD on Sept 11, 2024 13:19:11 GMT
I also did not watch the debate. Watching Trump for extended minutes was not going to happen. But I have seen clips this morning and it looked good. As one commentator said, Trump's poor performance is not likely to have gained any new voters. Chem PhD and I didn’t, either—I’ve reached the point where I can’t stand the sound of Dolt 45’s voice for longer than a few seconds. However, Dear Son *did*. He came upstairs a couple of times early on, saying that Harris was tending to veer into stump speech territory (my phraseology), rather than answering the actual question that was posed. We could also tell when Trump was speaking—laughter would erupt from downstairs. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Sept 11, 2024 13:51:46 GMT
At first I was pleased by how well received the results of the debate have been. But now I'm slipping back into being nervous about being too happy, lol.
I also keep hearing that Trump was not prepared for the debate, that his team did not do a good job. Of course not. The fact is he is in an ever-advancing stage of dementia and is no longer capable of rational, linear thinking, even drug assisted. He will not get better in the coming weeks. He's passed the cognitive tipping point. And with JD Vance as a back-stop? Yikes.
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Post by indy on Sept 11, 2024 15:09:04 GMT
I also did not watch the debate. Watching Trump for extended minutes was not going to happen. But I have seen clips this morning and it looked good. As one commentator said, Trump's poor performance is not likely to have gained any new voters. Chem PhD and I didn’t, either—I’ve reached the point where I can’t stand the sound of Dolt 45’s voice for longer than a few seconds. However, Dear Son *did*. He came upstairs a couple of times early on, saying that Harris was tending to veer into stump speech territory (my phraseology), rather than answering the actual question that was posed. We could also tell when Trump was speaking—laughter would erupt from downstairs. Both candidates dodged the questions they were asked. Moderators tried a few times to get them to answer but mostly to no avail. Harris did indeed travel down a few of her well-worn rhetorical paths, but she is by far the one still reaching out to those voters that don't know her so it's by design. |
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