2024 Presidential Election

[LFC]

MTG made a campaign ad for Biden-Harris! Well, at least she provided the content.

[AnBr]

www.instagram.com/reel/Cu84b32N8VM/

[goldenvalley]

A recent Monmouth Poll:

In a Biden-Trump rematch, just under half of registered voters say they will either definitely (36%) or probably (11%) vote for the Democratic incumbent and 4 in 10 will definitely (26%) or probably (14%) support the Republican. Majorities, though, say they will not vote for either Biden (46% definitely not and 6% probably not) or Trump (50% definitely not and 8% probably not). These results are statistically similar to poll results from two months ago.

Interesting information on the idea of a viable 3rd party candidate that those who fall in the both Biden and Trump are terrible and I want another choice camp:

At this point, 3 in 10 Americans say they would entertain voting for a third-party “fusion” ticket comprised of a Democrat and a Republican. Just 5% say they would definitely vote for this option if Biden and Trump are the major party nominees and another 25% say they would probably vote third party. At the other end of the spectrum, 31% say they definitely would not support a fusion ticket and 34% probably would not.


Support for a third-party ticket drops even lower when names of possible candidates are introduced into the equation. The No Labels group has been pursuing ballot access and unveiled a policy statement this week at an event headlined by Democratic West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and Republican former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman. Monmouth tested Manchin and Huntsman as an alternative ticket in a Biden-Trump race and found that only 2% of voters would definitely vote for this specific third-party option and just 14% would probably vote for them. Moreover, 44% definitely would not vote for a Manchin-Huntsman ticket and 31% probably would not. It does not appear to matter whether Manchin or Huntsman tops the ticket. Versions of this question that flipped the two names in the presidential and vice presidential slots got nearly identical support levels.

I wonder if the 3rd party curious folks will sit out the election as they probably did in 2016.

[jackd]

I think the more relevant question is which of the major party candidates would be most damaged in the general election should a third party run (e.g. Nader in 2,000 and Perot in 1992).

[indy]

These kinds of poll results are pretty routine this far out from an election. People tend to come home when they are presented with concrete choices.

[indy]

Btw i found this article pretty interesting: www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/21/gop-college-towns-00106974

[goldenvalley]

Jul 24, 2023 20:24:42 GMT indy said:

These kinds of poll results are pretty routine this far out from an election. People tend to come home when they are presented with concrete choices.

In general I think that's true.  What struck me about this one is that the number who would vote 3rd party went down when actual concrete names (Manchin-Huntsman) were offered.  Still it's largely theoretical. 

[Bact PhD]

Jul 24, 2023 20:30:23 GMT indy said:

Btw i found this article pretty interesting: www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/21/gop-college-towns-00106974

Interesting, but

Name the flagship university — Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, among others — and the story tends to be the same. If the surrounding county was a reliable source of Democratic votes in the past, it’s a landslide county now. There are exceptions to the rule, particularly in the states with the most conservative voting habits. But even in reliably red places like South Carolina, Montana and Texas, you’ll find at least one college-oriented county producing ever larger Democratic margins.

Natch, I live in one of those “exceptions.” Although the city proper is deep blue, and the county as a whole is supposedly blue-to-purple, the influx in recent years is pushing the county red-ward — we even have some of the loudmouths coming out of the woodwork nowadays. Leon County, home to the state capital and Florida State University, may have gone deeper blue; I don’t know.

[indy]

Well, Florida is a special case as always. So white (75%) and so populous (3rd) that it is still a stark contrast to another even more populous state like Texas which is nearly 50% non-white. It's pretty hard for Florida Universities to have a tipping point effect. I think you really kind of need the right combination of lower population (especially if the rural areas are declining), demographics, and growth of urban areas to see how college towns might become the deciding factor. In really white places like Iowa which is even whiter than Florida at 90%, you have rural counties losing populations but two of the ones gaining the most have the two largest public universities so the effect on voting patterns can be tremendous. Places like Arizona are more populous (twice that of Iowa) but is only around 50% white, so again a small shift could have an oversized effect. In Virginia I think it is probably the growth of urban areas that made the college towns more decisive. You can probably place most of the states mentioned somewhere along this spectrum of having the right kinds of shifts in these areas. Florida though...

[indy]

Florida is kind of amazing actually. I found this table: edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/Pop_0401_a.pdf

In 1970, Florida was 84% white. In 2022, it is...79%. However, the growth in population has been tremendous so the sheer number of white voters has far outpaced non-white.

Meanwhile, Texas in 1970 was 86% white and is now 50% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Texas) so the opposite has happened.

It's actually kind of funny how DeSantis is the face of the racial panic crowd.

[goldenvalley]

Ah DeSantis is really a grifter too. First we learn about stays at the Four Seasons (the fancy resort type places, not the landscaping company) and private jets.  Now this:

[pnwguy]

Pretty much nails it.

[LFC]

Man, DeStainist is even dull in his planning.

Hundreds of documents posted online by a firm owned by the chief strategist of Ron DeSantis’ super PAC have provided an extensive look at the cringeworthy advice guiding the Florida governor as he preps for the GOP presidential debate next week.

“There are four basic must-dos,” said one memo obtained by The New York Times. Referring to DeSantis as “GRD,” it said: “1. Attack Joe Biden and the media 3-5 times. 2. State GRD’s positive vision 2-3 times. 3. Hammer Vivek Ramaswamy in a response. 4. Defend Donald Trump in absentia in response to a Chris Christie attack.”

Citing “Roger Ailes’ Orchestra Pit Theory,” the document recommended DeSantis go especially hard on Ramaswamy, who is rising in the polls, with the rather lame, Trump-style insult of “Fake Vivek” or “Vivek the Fake.”

Ramaswamy responded to the advice in a tweet Thursday, hitting back at DeSantis with an insult of his own.

“Another boring, establishment attack from Super PAC-creation ‘Robot Ron’ who is literally taking lame, pre-programmed attack lines against me for next week’s debate,” Ramaswamy wrote.

[goldenvalley]

From the Washington Post report it looks like Carlson (Tucker on X, formerly Tucker on Twitter LOL) wanted Trump to talk about political violence.  Was he trying to stoke it or just trying to make headlines by getting the attention of the newspapers because of Trump's answers?  Is he seeking attention or does he have an evil, violent streak in him?

“The next stage is violence,” Carlson said. “Are you worried they’re going to try to kill you? Why wouldn’t they try to kill you?”

Trump did not directly answer. Carlson tried again later. “If you chart it out it’s an escalation,” Carlson said, recounting the two impeachments and four indictments against Trump. “So what’s next? They’re trying to put you in prison for the rest of your life, that’s not working. So don’t they have to kill you now?” Trump again avoided answering directly.

At the conclusion of the 46-minute interview, Carlson returned to the subject of potential violence. “Do you think we’re moving toward civil war?” he said. “Do you think it’s possible that there’s open conflict?”

“I don’t know,” Trump said.

Trump's answers were pretty noncommittal.

[LFC]

The know-nothing party is in full swing this election season.

Most are clinging to the cult.

Chris Christie, Asa Hutchison, and Doug Burgum represent no one and had no place being on the debate stage. Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott represent the last vestiges of the former GOP, and their anemic response to Trump even now exemplifies how the Republican Party got itself into this mess to begin with. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy are explicit about wanting to be the next Trump and are soulless enough to pull it off but lack his skills and appeal. Ramaswamy was particularly horrifying to watch, a know-nothing who will say anything and do so convincingly.

If this debate had an iconic moment it was the halting raising of hands captured in the photo above when the candidates were asked if they would support Trump as GOP nominee even if he were a convicted felon by then. All but Christie and Hutchison were down for Trump 2.0.

[pnwguy]

For you, Bact....

[goldenvalley]

I've not been posting articles about polling or about the various indictments because none of it is actually new and because nothing much has happened beyond anticipated legal maneuvering and defendants playing to their media audience.  But recently I've noticed a whole lot of writing pundits talking about Biden being old. Wow I didn't know that!  

It has been the norm for elected officials, whether they are presidents or other federal, state, or local offices run for re-election at least once. And it's also been the norm for members of the same political party to acquiesce in that.  Considering that the former president is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination why would Democrats change horses mid stream?  

[jackd]

I doubt they will and I think they need to concentrate their efforts on the swing states and the independents and Democrats there that actually can decide the election. National polls are almost meaningless in that regard.

[goldenvalley]

Trump's version of empathy for Black voters: 

Former President Trump is pushing his mug shot, arrests and criminal charges to try to claim new solidarity with Black voters — a group that has largely shunned him in elections.

Why it matters: Trump has latched on to a narrative promoted last month by Fox News commentators and others in conservative media — that his arrests could boost his standing among African Americans who believe the criminal justice system is unfair.

The big picture: There's little evidence he's getting an indictment bump among Black voters, despite his claim that support rose after the mug shot from his arrest in Atlanta was released.But his team believes he can make inroads with Black voters by pushing an I-am-a-victim-just-like-you storyline.
Zoom in: Trump claimed in a recent interview with conservative host Hugh Hewitt that his poll numbers among Black voters "have gone up four and five times" since his mug shot was released.

That's not true, as CNN reported.
And it's unclear whether Trump's favorability with Black voters has increased beyond the 8% or so share he received in 2020. (Recent polls have suggested Trump's support among Blacks is improving, but pre-election polls in 2020 overstated his support.)
Driving the news: In recent weeks Trump has promoted videos of Black people defending him, and senior Trump advisers have kept in touch with Black celebrities who have supported him publicly.

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung posted on X a TikTok video of a 34-year-old Black man saying, "We rocking with Trump, man. Even the youth, they know what time it is."

"I just think — especially, again with the (Black) men — they're going to see through" the charges against Trump, "because they've been dealing with this for a long time," Donald Trump Jr. told Newsmax.

Black artists including Lil Pump, Kodak Black and Chief Keef have posted mugshots of themselves next to Trump's, shared supportive messages, or otherwise indicated they're rooting for him.

Keef mused that Trump would "run the prison" if he's convicted.
Another artist, Bandman Kevo, got Trump's image tattooed on his leg.
Several artists have pointed to actions Trump took while in office, including passing the First Step Act and PPP loans, as reasons for their support.

I'm not Black but I'm insulted by the BS.  Trump has benefited by the two tier system of justice for years...that's why he's still walking free while awaiting trial.

[AnBr]

[Bact PhD]

Soooo… RFK Jr. is (kinda) switching teams…and Repubs are screaming!

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/09/republican-leaders-attack-robert-kennedy-jr-independent-campaign-announcement/

The Republican National Committee greeted his announcement with a press release that described Kennedy as “just another radical, far-left Democrat,” with a number of talking points that could be used by the expansive network of conservative commentators who tend to take messaging cues from the party.

“Make no mistake — a Democrat in Independent’s clothing is still a Democrat. RFK Jr. cannot hide from his record of endorsing Hillary, supporting the Green New Deal, fighting against the Keystone Pipeline, and praising AOC’s tax hikes — he is your typical elitist liberal and voters won’t be fooled,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement.

[snip]

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s pivot Monday to an independent run for president met immediate resistance from Republican leaders, who have concluded that his new effort threatens to cannibalize their vote share next year, helping to reelect President Biden.

Different team colors, same rhetoric:

The attacks came as Democrats remained largely silent on Kennedy’s shift, reflecting a relative optimism among the party’s top strategists that Kennedy poses little threat to Biden as an independent candidate. Kennedy’s polling in the Democratic nomination fight had fallen in recent months, and current national polling shows higher approval ratings for Kennedy among Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Kennedy, in a speech Monday at an outdoor rally in Philadelphia, cast his new campaign as an attempt to disrupt the efforts of partisan leaders to pit Americans against themselves for personal gain. He signaled no shift in the underlying conspiratorial and populist theme of his campaign, the idea that the nation’s leaders, in politics, the media and business, have been secretly lying to the American people — and that he is best positioned to expose those lies.

[indy]

Various polls have suggested RFK Jr will peel off more Republican votes than Democratic ones, so a number of GOP PACs are sharpening their knives.

I was amused at the Republican who was interviewed in a focus group who said he would vote for Biden over Trump even if Biden were dead. Yep, me too.

www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/-i-d-still-vote-for-biden-if-he-was-dead-pa-voters-react-to-trump-biden-2024-rematch-194683973849

[goldenvalley]

Oct 10, 2023 12:01:57 GMT indy said:

Various polls have suggested RFK Jr will peel off more Republican votes than Democratic ones, so a number of GOP PACs are sharpening their knives.

I don't know why that's surprising.  Did he or Republicans believe that the Kennedy name automatically means that Democrats would vote for him?  That magic, if there ever was any, is long gone.  And there is a person named Kennedy that is Louisiana's US Senator.  His name is John Kennedy. 

[indy]

Whatever love affair Americans had with the Kennedys seems long over and of a completely different political era.

I am encouraged about how focused Democrats seem to be over the next election.

[goldenvalley]

Same song, different year: