Ukraine

[LFC]

I came across a link that pointed to this Foreign Policy article written by two Rand Corp. analysts. Let's just say that it has not aged well. The Twitter thread provides some choice quotes. Ouch. Just ... ouch.

“In short, this war will look nothing like the status quo ante of conflict in Ukraine, and that undermines the first justification for U.S. aid: deterring Russia…

…The Ukrainian military has been shaped to fight the conflict in the Donbass and thus poses little deterrent threat to Russia; provision of U.S. weapons can do nothing to change that.”

“And, regardless, they could not be procured, delivered, and be made operational—to say nothing of getting the Ukrainian operators trained up to use them—in time to have an impact on this crisis”

“Ukraine does not have anywhere near enough forces to credibly defend against all the potential avenues of attack”

“Mobile engagements would benefit Russian forces, which are far better trained and equipped to conduct coordinated air and land maneuver warfare than their Ukrainian opponents.”

“Russia’s combat aircraft and strategic air defenses give Moscow many more options to control the air and to strike Ukrainian forces, and most Russian pilots have recent real-world experience in Syria”

I picked this up directly from the article. Two out of 3 arguments proved to be very true.

The justification for the aid has varied. Some have made the case that U.S. military assistance to Ukraine can change Russia’s calculus now, possibly deterring Moscow from launching an attack. Others claim that aid to the Ukrainian military can have a real impact on a possible fight with the Russians, making it meaningfully more challenging for the Kremlin to achieve victory and ruling out certain military options Russia might be considering. And there are also voices who call for additional capabilities merely to raise costs for Moscow—that is, to kill more Russian soldiers—so as to create political problems for President Vladimir Putin at home, although without much expectation that Ukraine would prevail.

None of these arguments is convincing. That does not mean security cooperation with Kyiv should cease. It does mean that military assistance is not an effective lever for resolving this crisis.

I'd also like to note that I've posted analysts here who said that while they didn't realize the Russian military was this bad they knew, and stated from that outset, that it was pretty bad. Certainly a lot worse than the average person realized. At least one of the authors tried the "nobody thought" angle, when multiple analysts clearly had different opinions, rather than just admitting he was flat out wrong. He was savaged, and rightly so.

Some of the comments have corrected his self-defense of "nobody thought."

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

Date   Vehicles     Tanks       Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks
5/27:  4150 (+475)  733 (+62)  13 weeks
6/02:  4207  (+57)  747 (+14)  14 weeks
6/09:  4273  (+66)  762 (+15)  15 weeks
--
7/05:  4573 (+200)  830 (+68)  19 weeks
7/12:  4683 (+110)  865 (+35)  20 weeks
7/19:  4738  (+45)  869  (+4)  21 weeks
7/26:  4822  (+84)  887 (+18)  22 weeks
8/02:  5038 (+216)  922 (+35)  23 weeks
8/09:  5103  (+65)  930  (+8)  24 weeks

Another slowdown.

Then there are these assessments by Colin Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy. They are not verified numbers but they are stunning all the same. Also at this link is the fact that we sent HARMS anti-radar missiles, something that hadn't really been disclosed before.

Russia, Kahl said, has had approximately 70,000-80,000 casualties of war, including killed and wounded in action, so far in the conflict.

“That number might be a little lower, little higher, but I think that’s kind of in the ballpark,” he said. He also added that Russia has lost between 3,000-4,000 armored vehicles.

[LFC]

Russia is bleeding badly. Now they're stripping jet liners for parts.

(I can't see the tweet so just in case here's a link to the Reuters article.)

[LFC]

There's been talk that, contrary to Russia's claims of new offensives, the Ukrainians are now the ones ready to take the offensive. They just made a drive deep into Russian held territory to strike a strategic target. There's also a report of explosions at a Russian airbase on Crimea.

Ukrainian military carries out its deepest strike yet in Russian-occupied area

From CNN's Tim Lister

The Ukrainian military has carried out what appears to have been their deepest strike yet into Russian-occupied regions of the country.

"This morning there was a good news, there was a very powerful detonation in Henichesk region," Serhii Khlan, adviser to the head of Kherson Civil Military Administration, said on Ukrainian television Tuesday.

Henichesk is in southern Kherson region, close to Crimea, and about 200 kilometers, or about 125 miles, from the nearest Ukrainian front line.

Khlan suggested that the target had been on the railway between Henichesk and Melitopol.

"We are still waiting for the official confirmation of our Armed Forces, from the General Staff, but it's a very pleasant news. The detonation was heard during 1.5-2 hours on this railway station, which connects Crimea and Melitopol," he said.

As mentioned before cutting of Crimea from the land puts Russia in a tight spot since they'll have to supply it from the sea, a place that is not safe as it was very early in the war. Then the Ukrainians figured out how to attack and the Russian ships were sitting ducks.

[indy]

Here is video of this latest strike. It gives a pretty good perspective on the scale.

[LFC]

I saw this tweet posted in a TPM chat room. I had to look it up but ATACMS is Army Tactical Missile System.

So Ukraine bombed a Russian airbase in Crimea using fairly long-range missiles. That's a game changer for the Russians and may require them to pull some vulnerable assets back even further from the front lines.

Then I clicked on the person he said gave him the info and here's his latest tweet. If true this is a huge hit. Between the HARMS being sent by the U.S. to help take out radar installations and the destruction of possibly dozens of Russian aircraft the Russians may have trouble maintaining air supremacy. On top of that the Ukrainians are apparently receiving some aircraft and also spare parts. If they can go toe to toe with the Russian air force then Putin and his invasion are even more f***ed than they are now. I could not have even imagined this was the remotest possibility six months ago.

[LFC]

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense dropped this sweet piece of trolling. I read months ago that Ukraine had achieved mastery in the PR theater of the war and that a lot of the things it was pushing out was meant to grind down the morale of Russian troops. I can see this piece of mockery being posted for exactly that reason.

[LFC]

Ukraine claims 9 Russian planes destroyed in Crimea which is a more sane number. It's also obvious they hit at least one ammunition storage facility there. This is video of apartments a kilometer away, supposedly with their windows shattered by the force of the explosion.

[LFC]

Russians are running from Crimea. The launch of a strike on the Russian airfield and strikes against key bridges have people in a panic. I imagine they are scared of being trapped on an island and depending on Russia to bring necessary supplies by sea. This map shows how vulnerable to being cut off the region really is.

Here are two reports on traffic jams on the bridges.

[LFC]

Russia is making offers to convicts in a desperate bid to keep their manpower up. Multiple analysts have stated that all of these ramp up quick schemes aren't going to work very well. People are being turned into soldiers with insufficient equipment, the barest of training, and being put in actual combat roles, not being restricted to support roles.

Promises of freedom and riches are made to convicts in cramped jail cells. Frantic phone calls ensue between relatives and inmates weighing the offer. Then prisoners vanish, leaving their loved ones to sift through reports of the wounded arriving in hospitals.

This scene is playing out in the convict communities across Russia. With a regular army stretched thin after nearly six months of a disastrously executed and bloody invasion of Ukraine, there’s increasing evidence that the Kremlin is making ugly choices in its ugly war and recruiting Russia’s prisoners to fight.

Over a month-long investigation, CNN has spoken to inmates caught up in Russia’s newest recruitment scheme, along with their relatives and friends. Activists believe hundreds have been approached in dozens of prisons across Russia – from murderers to drug offenders. Some have even been taken from the prison where one high-profile American jailed in Russia, Paul Whelan, is held. His brother David said in a statement in July he had heard ten volunteers had left IK17 in Mordovia for the frontlines in Ukraine

Dozens of chat messages between relatives, reviewed by CNN, detail the tempting rewards offered to fight in Ukraine, where the risk of death is high. The latest Western assessments suggest up to 75,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured since the invasion began (a claim the Kremlin has denied).

One prisoner spoke to CNN from his cramped jail cell, a cat crawling across bunk beds, and a fan clamped on top of an ageing television tried to cool the air between heavily barred windows. Imprisoned for multiple years for drugs offenses, he spoke on condition of anonymity using a contraband smartphone – quite common in Russia’s prison system – to outline the conditions on offer.

“They will accept murderers, but not rapists, pedophiles, extremists, or terrorists”, he said. “Amnesty or a pardon in six months is on offer. Somebody talks about 100,000 rubles a month, another 200,000. Everything is different.” He said the offer was made when unidentified men, believed to be part of a private military contractor’s firm, came to the prison in the first half of July, and that acceptance into the program would lead to two weeks of training in the Rostov region in southern Russia. While he had two years’ service in the military, he said the recruiters did not seem to insist on military experience.

“In my case, if it’s real, then I’m all for it,” the prisoner said. “It can make a real difference for me: be imprisoned for nearly a decade, or get out in six months if you’re lucky. But that’s if you’re lucky. I just want to go home to the children as soon as possible. If this option is possible, then why not?”

[LFC]

I don't even know what to say other than I guess he's just taken too many hits to the head. And yes, it's real.

[LFC]

The satellite images are out showing the Russian air base in Crimea. These are before and after pics taken just one day apart. Holy shit. Whatever was used in the attack, it was accurate as f***. Direct hits on aircraft and a building, which I suspect held ammunition, completely vaporized. The Russians have to be pissing themselves and reassessing vulnerabilities all over the place.

[LFC]

WTF is going on?

Video footage of explosions at Belarus’ Ziabrauka airfield allegedly contradicts official version

Update 12.44.pm (August 11) “Video of one of the flashes near Ziabrauka airfield, filmed at a distance of about 20-25 km. from the airfield.
It shows a large flash, which doesn’t look like an “engine fire.”

“We remind that a group of the Russian Armed Forces with an impressive amount of equipment is stationed at Ziabrauka airfield: about 10 units of S-400 Triumf systems, two units of Pantsir systems, and Iskander systems. In addition, there are also tanks and BMPs digged.”

“Based on all available data, we have several versions of what happened:

At this point it's all conjecture but if Ukraine attacked air bases in Crimea and Belarus that quickly the Russians must be in a complete tailspin trying to figure out how to protect what assets they have left.

[LFC]

Analysis of the damage from the Saki Airbase attack. This one hurt.

[LFC]

This analysis isn't of the damage, it's of the position that the attack puts the Russians in especially since nobody but the Ukrainians seem to know exactly how the attacks were executed. The distance from the front lines and the different possible methods of attack (and there's nothing saying it was just one) leave Russia with multiple choices of what to do to defend their military assets, all of which are likely to harm their offensive efforts.

The thread also starts discussing what kind of attack it was, and tbh, it’s still not clear. I’ve seen a number of options presented, all of which have some supporting evidence. Ukr Spec Forces, UAVs, long range rockets (even ATACMS), homegrown Ukr missiles…

The Ukrainians aren’t saying, and tbh, they shouldn’t. The gravity of this attack can’t be underestimated, and if the Russians don’t even know how it was launched, it’s impact will be magnified.

Say it’s Ukr Special Forces, operating deep in Russian held territory, able to penetrate into one of the most important air bases Russia has, lay precise charges around the base, and get out. If so this is a security fail by Russia on an epic scale. They will have to fear similar SF operations everywhere (including in Russia). They will have to deploy ground forces now behind the lines for security, maintain constant patrols, etc. not good.

Otoh, say it’s a homegrown Ukr system. Just as destabilising in a different way. Basically the Ukr have been able on their own to construct a system that can outwit what we were assured was some of the most advanced anti air forces in the world. An epic Rus fail there.

Finally, what if it is the ATACMS (long range HIMARS ammo that has not officially been supplied). This is also terrifying to the Russian army. Means that the Ukr are getting things the Russians clearly didn’t anticipate, can use them with extraordinary accuracy already. Yikes.

So the importance of the operation is magnified by not knowing what the Ukrainians did. Each method points to a real problem for the Russians. Best to make them worry about all of them.

[LFC]

More analysis. The numbers seem to be coalescing around 10 Russian aircraft lost. It appears that fuel and ammo depots were not targeted.

[LFC]

Ukraine is making the most of the situation by rattling the Russian military and people. There is strong support for the war in Russia but Ukraine is working to undermine that. First, here's the English version mocking Russians who like to vacation in Crimea. (Bananarama? Really?)

The attack definitely hit the psyche of Russian tourists and perhaps even Crimean residents.

[LFC]

More warfare through another avenue. I posted about Ukraine instituting a resistance program well before the invasion. It looks like it's bearing at least some fruit.

[LFC]

First evidence of a Ukrainian war crime. Taking away their beer? I mean, C'MON!

[goldenvalley]

Aug 11, 2022 16:06:47 GMT LFC said:

First evidence of a Ukrainian war crime. Taking away their beer? I mean, C'MON!

Oh the humanity!!!

[LFC]

At every announcement like this I wonder how much is true and how much, like the number of supposedly revealed Russian positions, is bogus and just designed to drive the Russian command and control nuts.

[LFC]

These are the explosions that didn't happen at the airbase in Belarus.

[LFC]

Another epic troll by Ukraine as they continue to own the social media propaganda war. As Mick Ryan said, morale means a lot and these are the kinds of things that keep taking the wind out of their sails.

[andydp]

Aug 11, 2022 21:14:53 GMT LFC said:

These are the explosions that didn't happen at the airbase in Belarus.

I've said it at the start: I'm certain EVERY NATO Special Ops unit is in the area.  I'm betting they're having a lot of "fun". 

Note that to get accurate fire on a target, you can put a laser on the target. That means a person is actually looking at the target.

[indy]

I wonder why Ukraine would antagonize Belarus? It seems odd.