Ukraine

[AnBr]

Ukraine Strike on Russian Headquarters Kills 200 Paratroopers: Official

[LFC]

Cheezes. These are the helmets being supplied to Russian soldiers.

[LFC]

Both Ukraine and Western intelligence apparently believe that Russia has launched over half of its missiles.

[andydp]

Aug 29, 2022 0:02:28 GMT LFC said:

Cheezes. These are the helmets being supplied to Russian soldiers.

One comment was paper machiè ? Some third rate fiberglass helmet liner would do better.
(Helmet liner: before the Kevlar ones the old helmets were two parts: the steel “pot” and the fiberglass liner that had the straps.)

[Bact PhD]

Aug 29, 2022 0:02:28 GMT LFC said:

Cheezes. These are the helmets being supplied to Russian soldiers.

I’ve seen stronger bicycle helmets!

Oh, and was that one dude channeling his inner John “Bluto” Blutarski?

(:45 in)

m.youtube.com/watch?v=LARx7M9s15w

[LFC]

Aug 29, 2022 1:03:36 GMT Bact PhD said:

Oh, and was that one dude channeling his inner John “Bluto” Blutarski?

You make that sounds like a bad thing!

I read a comment that the helmets consist of a high amount of aluminum, something Russia has quite a lot of.

[LFC]

Russia no longer considers Sevastopol to be safe. They're right, of course.

[Bact PhD]

Aug 29, 2022 13:48:16 GMT LFC said:

Aug 29, 2022 1:03:36 GMT Bact PhD said:

Oh, and was that one dude channeling his inner John “Bluto” Blutarski?

You make that sounds like a bad thing!

I read a comment that the helmets consist of a high amount of aluminum, something Russia has quite a lot of.

Not intended to sound like a “bad thing” at all—merely an observation.

Aluminum…just like…hmm…could it be…BEER CANS??
(No apologies to another SNL alum, Dana Carvey)

[LFC]

Here are some insights into the race between Ukraine and Russia to get their armies back to full fighting strength.

This.

Shashank Joshi
@shashj
Aug 25

Western officials say that more than half of Russia's brigades and regiments in Ukraine are now at less than 60% of their original manpower and equipment, making them technically “combat ineffective” for their original missions. Some are in dire shape.

Apparently Russia's recruitment efforts for contract soldiers has not been particularly successful. Putin said he wanted well over 100,000 new troops in fairly short order. Outside of a general mobilization, which would bankrupt Russia, I don't see how he gets there.

[LFC]

I have a work buddy who is insistent on the importance of continuing talks. I don't see it, at least not yet. Putin has made it pretty clear that he's not interested in anything short of Ukraine falling on its knees and turning control of their country over to him and a puppet gov't he installs.

[LFC]

Something fairly big is happening.

One commenter pointed out this.

I’ve been eyeying Nova Kharkovka for quite a while now because it controls the canal that supplies water to Crimea. Drink up while you still can, rashists!

This sounds like it may be real.

Just now - Russian fighter in Ukraine Anatoliy Dryomov - "there is a big risk to lose Kherson, many losses among ours".

All that official source in Ukraine seem to be willing to say is this from one of Zelensky's advisers.

Today, the only possible option for negotiations with Russia is being conducted by a special Ukrainian delegation in the southern and other directions of the frontline. “Negotiations” are going well. We expect new “compromises” in the form of “gestures of goodwill”.

[pnwguy]

Aug 29, 2022 19:53:36 GMT LFC said:

Something fairly big is happening.

My fear is that Putin will continue to have so many losses that he'll order the sabotage of the nuclear power plant.  Yes it will kill perhaps more Russians over time than Ukrainians.  But he'll declare that the Ukrainians did it, and justify the use of tactical nukes to take out Kviv, before those Nazis kill more Russians with their evil.  And like his understudy in Mar-a-Lago, it doesn't matter to him how many of his countrymen he kills to cover his guilt and escape retribution for his actions.

[jackd]

I share that concern. Putin is definitely worried about the situation ,having fired his minister of defense and aggressively recruiting more troops

[LFC]

There's a stream of bits and pieces but it all sounds like Ukraine is pushing to take back Kherson, they've busted through the Russian lines, and Russian troops are retreating.

[LFC]

Aug 29, 2022 20:01:58 GMT pnwguy said:

My fear is that Putin will continue to have so many losses that he'll order the sabotage of the nuclear power plant.  Yes it will kill perhaps more Russians over time than Ukrainians.  But he'll declare that the Ukrainians did it, and justify the use of tactical nukes to take out Kviv, before those Nazis kill more Russians with their evil.  And like his understudy in Mar-a-Lago, it doesn't matter to him how many of his countrymen he kills to cover his guilt and escape retribution for his actions.

I saw this AM that an international team was coming in, apparently with Putin's agreement, to take over the nuclear power plant. If anything happens to them it will be a shit show for sure.

[LFC]

Still more.

Wagner fighter Grey Zone confirms Ukrainian advance, says AFU have successes in numerous areas. Confirms Sukhoy Stavok is certainly taken. So far, most of the things Ukrainians military have said appear true.

[LFC]

The bits and pieces at TPM's chat room keep pouring in. Somebody who can clearly read Russian noted this that was not supplied in a translation. That's the danger of occupying an area where the people are hostile to your intentions.

The Russian text shown was not at all what the translation said. The actual text said it was very hot and they had a problem with water. They (Russians) couldn’t get water from locals for fear of poisoning. They only bought water in bottles.

[LFC]

Another Russian who believes they will lose the city of Kherson and surrounding area.

It sounds like they've picked their area for attack and are moving fast to keep the Russian in retreat.

The person who posted this at TPM had this to say:

My reading thus far suggests the UA shelled the shit out of Ru positions the night before on the west side of the river, and then just sprinted in at full speed, putting the Ru defenders (I like the sound of that) on their heels. Since they’ve also basically taken out the bridges, the fleeing Russians are now backed into a corner.

This suggests t me that they will take and hold Kherson, plus everything north and west of the Dnipro river. I don’t think the Ua can push beyond the river at this time, but will take their victory and consolidate.

If they're completely routed do the Russians on the other side of the river have any capacity for evacuating them? If not it could be an enormous loss of troops that they are in no position to replace. If a large number of captives are taken then hopefully NATO will help with aid for the POW facilities that will be needed.

[LFC]

These are known offensives. If Ukraine is truly pushing for the western bank of the Dnipro River then they're pushing for a region that runs about 90 miles SW to NE and about 25 miles wide, roughly 2,200 square miles of territory with a VERY defensible border.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

Date   Vehicles     Tanks       Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks
5/27:  4150 (+475)  733 (+62)  13 weeks
6/02:  4207  (+57)  747 (+14)  14 weeks
6/09:  4273  (+66)  762 (+15)  15 weeks
--
7/05:  4573 (+200)  830 (+68)  19 weeks
7/12:  4683 (+110)  865 (+35)  20 weeks
7/19:  4738  (+45)  869  (+4)  21 weeks
7/26:  4822  (+84)  887 (+18)  22 weeks
8/02:  5038 (+216)  922 (+35)  23 weeks
8/09:  5103  (+65)  930  (+8)  24 weeks
8/16:  5200  (+97)  952 (+22)  25 weeks
8/23:  5321 (+121)  970 (+18)  26 weeks
8/30:  5362  (+41)  988 (+18)  27 weeks

The destruction looks like it has slowed but I suspect those numbers may be jumping soon if the Ukrainian offensive in Kherson is successful. One analyst noted that the Russians there are mostly cut off from both supplies and escape and that could force them to leave behind a lot of heavy equipment.

[LFC]

Tuckums must have gotten a message from Vlad to step it up a bit.

[goldenvalley]

Aug 30, 2022 16:37:52 GMT LFC said:

Tuckums must have gotten a message from Vlad to step it up a bit.

Yeah Putin is getting upset that the US keeps increasing the amount of money supporting Ukraine.  He wants the MAGATs to oppose further spending.  Does Trump talk about this at all or is he so lost in his attempts to redo the election and fundraising over the execution of a search warrant that he has no time for it?

[andydp]

[LFC]

Another day, another ammo dump explosion. This was apparently a big one.

Big booms aren't the only way Russia is being attacked. And it's not just Ukrainian military. The resistance that was organized well before Russia invaded is taking making its own progress.

[LFC]

Here's a short discussion on the impacts of attrition on Russian forces.

If this is true then morale is utterly collapsing and I don't see how Putin gets anywhere close to the signups he says he wants.

There are also reports that Russia is refusing to rotate units out for rest and refitting because contracts have been and are soon to be expiring. They're assuming these soldiers will walk if not trapped far from home.