Ukraine

[LFC]

Ukraine's offensive has clearly been well planned out. They understood the vulnerability of Russian troops on their side of the bridges over the Dnieper.

The first Ukrainian strikes seem to have fallen on positions occupied by the 109th Donets People’s Republic’s 109th militia regiment— puppet forces of the Russian occupation. These DPR forces are reported to have fallen back in disarray. More importantly, an adjacent unit of Russian VDV paratroopers, a first line unit that might have been expected to meet the attack, have apparently also fled the battlefield. Ukraine’s initial successes are likely to continue.

Ukrainian planners have prepared the battle space well.

Ukraine has ensured that Russian logistics were badly stressed. Over the past weeks, Ukrainian precision strike artillery has targeted Kherson’s rail and highway bridges, destroying one and badly cratering the other. Intelligence analysts estimate that Russian Ukrainian artillery strikes had reduced supply traffic across the Dnieper by as much as 70%. In the days before the offensive, Russian troops reported running out of food and fresh water.

The interdiction of Kherson’s river crossings has served two purposes: it has strangled Russian logistics and, more critically, it has greatly decreased the maneuver options available to Russian commanders.

The Russian 42nd Combined Arms Army now faces a developing Ukrainian offensive with an uncrossable river at its back. The occupiers of Kherson will have two options: to fight and die in place– or die trying to swim the Dnieper.

Nor is Kherson the only objective. Ukraine has been slowly and meticulously using precision artillery to disable the bridge associated with the hydro-electric dam complex at Nova Kakhovka. It is reported that Russian forces are being attacked on this axis as well. Like their comrades at Kherson, local Russian commanders now face the same grim dilemma: they can fight and die on the north bank– or die trying to swim the Dnieper.

One final problem faces the occupiers of Kherson: partisans. Deeply inserted Ukrainian Special Operations Forces have established Partisan direct action and intelligence networks throughout the city and the surrounding countryside.

Ukrainian partisan networks provide up-to-date targeting data on Russian troop movements and ammunition depots. In the past weeks, Ukrainian artillery has been able to hit bridges just as Russian ammunition convoys are attempting to cross. Partisans will now be passing information on the positions of Russian reinforcements; Ukrainian artillery will make sure they don’t arrive.

[LFC]

Maybe it's skewed reporting but it sure seems like Ukraine is targeting infrastructure but the Russians are mostly just bombing a nation. Grinding a population into submission is certainly a strategy but you need a lot of troops, equipment, and especially ammunition to do that. Ukraine seems to have grasped that.

[LFC]

These are updates from one analyst that I just picked up. Day 3 of the offensive. Reading through all the scattered reports the "fog of war" issue becomes pretty obvious. But it does seem that Ukraine hasn't made any major charge into the occupied territory. As the link starts out it appears that they're more interested in grinding down the Russian army than to reclaim land and send them fleeing. A war of attrition isn't flashy but for those facing constant attacks and a huge decrease in supply deliveries it's got to be pretty awful.

Phillips P. OBrien
Follow @phillipspobrien

Kherson counterattack day 3 (probably). Looks more and more like this is a Ukrainians shaping operation to accelerate Russian attrition. They are claiming high Rus losses in many categories yesterday; soldiers, tanks, artillery.

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Aug. 31, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Day 4.

Ukrainians remaining quiet. Few formal details on what’s happening. That’s good. At times in the past too much info seemed to be leaking out everywhere.

However they are reporting very heavy Russian losses in almost all categories, a major acceleration in losses from a week ago. Soldiers, tanks, APCs, artillery. Sign of intense fighting.

More official Ukrainian claims of Russian losses, specifically tied to Kherson front.

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent

⚡️Ukraine's southern counteroffensive increases Russian losses of troops, equipment.

Operational Command "South" reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 201 Russian troops, 12 T-72 tanks, 18 armored vehicles, over a dozen different artillery units, and 6 ammo depots.

[pnwguy]

I wish the Democrats could fight the MAGAts as fiercely as the Ukrainians are taking it to the Russians. Defending your country should motivate you. Dobbs is the opening salvo of gunfire that will hopefully wake people up to the attack.

[goldenvalley]

Sept 1, 2022 16:31:22 GMT pnwguy said:

I wish the Democrats could fight the MAGAts as fiercely as the Ukrainians are taking it to the Russians. Defending your country should motivate you. Dobbs is the opening salvo of gunfire that will hopefully wake people up to the attack.

I think Biden is trying to rally the troops and it might be working.  But what would really be effective with swing voters is if more Republican big wigs followed Cheney's lead to say that democracy is at stake here...don't follow the R if the person carrying it is a Trump supporter.  The swingers and those who tend to sit out elections unless they are wound up about something would be more influenced if they heard talk like that from both parties, not just one of them.

[LFC]

For any Rick & Morty fans.

[LFC]

A bit on the PR battle over the offensive which, at this point, doesn't mean shit.

Interesting that Ukraine has now virtually shut down any actual information on the fighting.

[LFC]

If this is even close to accurate then Russian troops are being devastated.

A quick lookup on their war in Afghanistan says they had 15,000 killed and 35,000 wounded. That was 10 years, not 6 months. And their population has dropped since then. I suspect Putin's going to have to make a choice about full mobilization sometime soon, and that will NOT be popular.

[LFC]

Putin's got a new deadline to implement Russia's counter-strategy in the southern occupied territories. Good luck with that one, Vlad. May it be as successful as the rest of your goals during this invasion.

Russia’s forces are working to regroup again and charge after the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, according to a report from a top Ukrainian official serving in the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly ordered Russian forces to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region by Sept. 15. Russia will be attempting to shift its third Army Corps to handle the Donetsk shift, the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate, Oleksiy Gromov, said Thursday, according to Interfax.

“We are considering the issue that directly with the participation of this unit there will be an attempt to conduct offensive operations in Donetsk direction,” Gromov said. “The enemy continues to hold the occupied areas of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions, and is also trying to create favorable conditions for the resumption of the offensive.”

But the new army corps that Russia wants to send to Donetsk to overpower Ukrainian forces isn’t necessarily the most impressive force. In recent days Russia has tried to gin up the new group of fighters by nixing an age limit for recruits and even recruiting prisoners, so that they can beef up their numbers, according to a senior U.S. defense official.

“Russia has already begun trying to expand recruitment efforts to staff at least one volunteer battalion per federal district and to raise a new third Army corps. They've done this in part by eliminating the upper age limit for new recruits, and also by recruiting of prisoners,” the senior U.S. defense official said in a briefing with reporters on Monday. “Many of these new recruits have been observed as older, unfit, and ill-trained. So what this all suggests to us is that any additional personnel Russia is able to muster by the end of the year may not, in fact, increase overall Russian…combat power.”

But watch out because, you know, Russia hasn't even begun to flex its muscle. Uh, huh. Yeah, let's go with that.

After several months of problems, Putin has tried to dismiss the idea that Russia has made full-force efforts to advance, only to fail. He warned in July that “by and large, we have not started anything seriously yet.”

Said the guy who is down 1,000 tanks, over 5,000 pieces of heavy equipment, tens of thousands of troops, and a major warship which is sitting at the bottom of the sea.

[LFC]

I'd say that this is the very model of desperation. Imagine being pressured with, "If you'd like to keep your nice, state provided job in a time when our economy is collapsing..." Of course it will be presented as an "offer."

[LFC]

Over 1,000 Russian destroyed tanks confirmed. The numbers that really jump out are how many were Soviet era tanks in total (38%) vs. how many were Soviet era tanks since August 1 (53%). It sounds like the Russians are digging deep into their aged reserve equipment and they clearly don't have the capacity to replace it with new equipment. The war of attrition marches on.

[LFC]

Trying to analyze what Russians have on the west side of the Dnipro River. A few interesting points:

7/17 First of all, it is beneficial for Ukraine to shift the focus of hostilities and draw the enemy's resources to the Kherson, rather than direct all forces to the Donetsk Region, where the enemy has short and protected supply routes.

The Russian regular troops are already tired, supplies are getting tough, and it sounds like being one of Putin's mercenaries is a high risk job.

8/17 Secondly, in the Kherson region, the enemy has many "beaten" units. Some of them fought in the Kyiv region. They have lower motivation and ability to recover than fresher troops in the East, where the main reserves and replenishments were directed.

9/17 Many have already tried to free themselves in these units

10/17 Thirdly, in recent months, Russia has developed a strategy that has significantly reduced losses among the regular military units of the RFA: the first line of attack in the Donbas is most often made up of "LDNR" and "Wagner", whose losses do not particularly concern Putin

11/17 Regular Russian units mostly go in the second line of attack and provide cover. And they will not suffer such losses as in March-May. Kherson Oblast is home to troops RFA (with the exception of a few units).

The logistics problems for Russia are huge. Ukraine's successful destruction of so many bridge crossings has been key.

13/17 These are about 15-25 thousand soldiers, 200 tanks, 700 armored vehicles, and 300 artillery systems. This is approximately the same as the entire military aid to Ukraine for 6 months.

14/ In order to support these Russian troops, it is necessary to provide up to 500 trucks per day with ammunition, provisions, ammunition.

If we take as a basis 2 points of crossings across the Dnipro, then it turns out that 10 trucks must pass through each crossing every minute

15/17 The wounded will also be a big problem for Russia. Kherson hospitals will be able to accept some of them. But the majority must be transported to Crimea.

[LFC]

Confirmation from Ukraine that they're not trying to retake large areas of territory. This is an offensive against the Russian troops themselves. I suspect this has been announced as part of their propaganda war. Russians will be hearing that the entire point isn't about land, towns, etc. The point is simply to make them dead.

More on the same topic.

My hypothesis on what’s Ukraine doing in Kherson region.
The Ukrainian military likely put a stake on gradually exhausting and embattling Russia’s grouping on the Dnipro right bank — while also keeping it isolated from supplies and from across the river…

[LFC]

More observations on the war. Ukraine saw an opportunity and rather than executing a strategic fallback to defensible positions Russia has decided to stand their ground. This may very well end up being disastrous for them.

Poor RU leadership pushed many BTGs over the Dnipro because Putin wanted Kherson City, Mykolayiv, and eventually Odesa.

But on the M14, there are only 2 Bridges across the Dnipro. Destroy those bridges...and logistics & a trapped force becomes a RU problem. 10/

In the last few days, UA has used HIMARs to "drop" the bridges, while also attacking RU forces

I won't draw military arrows or objectives, but reports indicate UA has been involved in intense fighting in Vysokopillya, Arkhangelske & Potemkine. (boxes on the map) 11/



There are also indications RU troops are falling back to the Beryslav Bridgehead (see box area on map) as part of a "refit" & "reconsolidate" operation.

Once there, it'll be hard for them to get back across the VERY WIDE river to escape (Note only 2 Bridges in Kherson). 12/



UA is targeting key RU w/ precision weapons, confusing a RU force that already has very low morale and poor leadership, with a relatively small combined arms (tanks, infantry, artillery, engineers, logistics, etc) force.

All while RU has depleted BTG w/ little supplies. 13/

A quick look at Google Maps shows that if Russian troops tried to cross the river SW of the Beryslav bridge they'd be facing nearly 1,000' river crossing. If the bridge gets completely blown (it's badly damaged and Russia is using pontoon ferries to move supplies) and they get trapped at the dam / bridge there the crossing is twice that. If they get trapped north of the dam then they're seriously f***ed with a crossing of well over 2 miles wide. The next bridge is in Zaporizhia, 120 miles to the NW but that's in complete control of the Ukrainians.

Meanwhile up in the Donbas, Ukraine simultaneously took advantage of Russia's repositioning of troops to the south.

While a relatively smaller victory, this action by UA in the Donbas is *after* the RU pulled forces to head south, again showing offensive spirit by Ukraine.

Russia simply doesn't have the troops and equipment to defend the places they're in but Putin's political face is on the line so they'll continue to try to do the impossible. A lot of people may end up dead and wounded over one man's vanity, not that this would be an even remotely unique happening in world history.

Ukraine seems to be in no hellbent rush to have a major head to head clash in an attempt to regain a ton of territory. They are clearly more than content to simply grind the Russians down to their nubs.

[LFC]

Ukrainian officials are making announcements again.

[LFC]

Battle of the Bulge all over again?

[LFC]

The grinding continues and it's taking its toll.

[LFC]

Moscow's latest deadline for its military doesn't look like it's going to be happening.

And speaking of sham referendums...

[LFC]

Russia apparently doesn't believe it can hold what it has taken through force, so now comes the thoroughly obvious whining (from a very weak position) for negotiations.

Ukraine is, predictably, brushing their desperation aside.

[LFC]

I'd say this is a pretty clear indication of how desperately low Russia is on ammunition.

Russia Buying Weapons From North Korea, US Intel Reports

The Kremlin is buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea to aid its brutal attack against Ukraine, according to U.S. intelligence officials.

Here's a Wayback Machine link to the paywalled article.

Remember they've already purchased drones from Iran. They're scrounging for the basics. And Ukraine's southern strategy seems intent on, and successful at, burning through what they have at a faster pace.

[LFC]

That's a good question. How much and what quality ammo is the wildly paranoid North Korea really willing to sell?

[LFC]

A lack of chips is killing Russia's hi-tech weapons production. These sanctions appear to be more effective at targeting military abilities, rather than just the well being of the broad population, than most sanctions we've seen in the past.

[LFC]

The Russians are being forced (as in forced by Putin) to send more troops and equipment to the south. Just as discussed by analysts weeks ago they're trying to defend a territory that's just too big and has too much border with too few resources. They're sacrificing stability in the north rather than pulling back to maintain it. As long as Ukraine has the will and is provided with the means Russia is stuck being nothing be reactive, except when they decide to murder a few more civilians by lobbing some artillery shells on them.

Ukraine Conflict Monitor: It is important to note that most of the best Russian formations (or what is left of them) had in recent weeks been deployed to the Kherson Oblast, which means that proxies and Wanger mercenaries are doing most of the fighting.1/5

This especially pertains to the most neuralgic areas in the Donetsk Oblast. The frontline between Kharkiv and Zaporozhihia is therefore deprioritised as long as the situation in the Kherson Oblast is not stabilised. This has three consequences. 2/5

Firstly, we expect the bulk of Russian military potential to be engaged near the Dnieper river over the medium term, limiting their ability to conduct offensive operations elsewhere. 3/4

Secondly, this opens up a window of opportunity for Ukrainians to undertake some raids into Russia-controlled territory. An example of this action could now be seen near the Ozerne area. 4/5

Lastly, Russians are unlikely to achieve their stated objective of capturing the remaining parts of the Donetsk Oblast anytime soon. 5/5

Just as a reminder here's a map of Ukraine's oblasts. Russia wanted to eventually take (and retain during "negotiations") all of the Luhansk and Donetsk but they are also desperate to hold a land bridge to Crimea. That requires holding the coasts of 3 oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk) that border the Sea of Azov. So much to defend. And the troops of Ukraine are a lot more motivated.

[LFC]

Boys will be boys. Reminds me of women trolling up Jan 6 insurrectionists on dating apps.

[andydp]

Sept 6, 2022 16:55:18 GMT LFC said:

Boys will be boys. Reminds me of women trolling up Jan 6 insurrectionists on dating apps.

As any woman can attest: men will do anything when "Mr Happy" needs entertainment.