Ukraine

[LFC]

The Ukrainian offensive up north continues. This is a direct result of Russia having to move troops, including some of the best supplied and most capable, to the south. Welcome to whack-a-mole, Vlad.

[LFC]

Ukraine will be receiving a low cost air defense system called VAMPIRE that is more cost effective in combating enemy drones.

Alongside the billions of dollars in money and aid the U.S. has sent to Ukraine, a growing collection of new and innovative weapons has captured international attention. Outside of decades-old weapons systems such as the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher and HARM anti-radiation missile, the central focus of public interest has been in drone technology, including U.S.-supplied Switchblade and the more mysterious Phoenix Ghost.

Ukraine and Russia use hundreds of drones to spy on each other’s movements, identify targets for artillery, and fire munitions of their own. The drone war over Ukraine’s skies is becoming more intense as both sides modify commercial drones to do everything from dropping grenades into trenches to crashing into oil refineries.

Ukraine is eager to get systems that can shoot down Russian, and potentially Iranian, drones. The most recent U.S. aid package, $3 billion aimed at supplying current material and building long-term capacity, features a new weapon: the Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment (VAMPIRE). The confusingly named system is not the first or most capable air defense system the Biden administration has supplied to Ukraine, but its unique features and price point put it on the frontier of the evolving fight against small drones.

Compared to massive air defense systems like an S-400 or MIM-104 Patriot, the VAMPIRE looks unassuming. It’s just a four-barrel rocket launcher with a small sensor package on the back of a truck. It’s not exactly hi-tech either: the system fires a missile that’s been produced for a decade and its guidance is traditional. Its advantage, however, is in its modest size and price tag.

Where the VAMPIRE might change the game for the Ukrainians, and for the future of drone warfare, is the low cost. For traditional air defense, which was designed to take down airplanes and helicopters, small drones can present a costly dilemma. Depending on the system, the missile that shoots down the drone could cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, much more than the drone itself. Advanced drones also cost millions, but smaller ones can cost a few hundred dollars. Shorter-ranged systems are cheaper but spreading them thin to defeat drones could reduce their ability to engage helicopters and jets. As drones become cheaper and more available, militaries are looking for ways to shoot them down that don’t break the bank.

The VAMPIRE’s munitions cost about $27,000 each—cheap for a guided missile—and the launcher and targeting system can be attached to the back of most pickup trucks. Twenty-seven thousand dollars per round is expensive, but when compared to the U.K.’s $1.5 million Light-Multirole Missile, which was provided to Ukraine and has a similar range against drones, the financial benefits are immediately apparent. In sufficient numbers, systems like the VAMPIRE give Ukrainian forces the ability to quickly and cheaply threaten Putin’s drones while saving their most advanced anti-aircraft systems for the most important areas of the country.

The VAMPIRE by itself, however, is not a miracle solution for Russian drones in the short term. It will not be ready until May of next year and its short range and four-barrel limit mean that it might not be able to stop a concentration of drones without additional assistance. The range has been the subject of some debate because the missile has more often been fired from aircraft, but it is likely limited to about 2 miles. Additionally, civilian trucks to mount it on are plentiful, but they often lack armor, and could be vulnerable if they operate too close to the front. Ultimately, the VAMPIRE will be a part of a broader ecosystem of different kinds of sensors, launchers, and jammers that make up air defense in Eastern Ukraine.

[LFC]

Ukraine is now confirmed to be on the offensive in the north as well. Here is reporting on what's known. Here's the push. It's driving hard into territory outside the Luhansk oblast that Russia has taken in this war.

They're swinging around and entrapping Russians, just like they're working on doing in the south.

Videos are appearing of Russians caught in between.

Any operations around Kharkiv are right across the Russian border. Even the operation in the first tweet quoted above is only about 35 miles from the nearest Russian border point. This sounds like Ukraine is able to attack, and quite effectively, right on Russia's doorstep. Vlad must be losing his shit.

[LFC]

Here's an analysis of what has happened, what is happening, and what the author expects to happen with the northern offensive. I'm shocked that Ukraine has the strength to strike two completely different areas, whipsawing the Russians into supporting one or the other since they can't support both. Of course Russia is trying to support both and it sounds like it's going to get the crap kicked out of their military by spreading it too thin.

I am not very good at graphics, but I tried to draw up an explainer for the Ukrainian Kupiansk Offensive:

Redish = the territory occupied by russia

• yesterday Ukrainian troops liberated Balakliia (Blue 1)
• during the night Ukrainian troops moved to Volokhiv Yar (Blue 2)



• currently Ukrainian troops are advancing to Shevchenkove (Blue 3)

Once Ukrainian troops have firmly established themselves in these three settlements, the russian forces in the black hatched area must retreat North or will be crushed by Ukrainian forces.

Once the black hatched area is cleared Ukraine can move its M777 up and take the rail and road junctions, and russian supply depots in Kupiansk under fire.

The outer yellow rings show the range of M982 Excalibur rounds for precision strikes and the inner yellow rings show the range of unguided M795 155 mm projectiles.

With Kupiansk (upper red circle) under artillery fire, the russian supply line to its forces around Izyum (lower red circle) becomes unusable. If Ukraine then uses M777 fired Excalibur projectiles and M142 HIMARS fired M31A1 GMLRS rockets to take out the bridges over the Oskil river (the four purple pentagons) and whatever pontoon bridges the russians try to build, then the russian forces West of the Oskil river are trapped, just like the russian forces in Kherson.

This will give Ukraine two options how to finish the russians:
• either advance and take Kupiansk (Green 4) and then battle the trapped russians into surrender or
• leave an escape route for the russians between Shevchenkove and Kupiansk and then hammer them with artillery, TB2 drones, and rocket artillery when they flee North.

The first option guarantees annihilation for 10,000+ russians, but will also cause many Ukrainian casualties, while the second will brutally decimate the fleeing russians, with minimal Ukrainian losses.

No matter what options the Ukrainians choose, the russian forces West of the Oskil are doomed, as putin doesn't have 5-6,000 fresh troops for a counter attack.

This offensive (like the Kherson Offensive) makes excellent use of rivers, and while the Kherson Offensive ensures that russia can never launch an attack on Mykolaiv, the Kupiansk Offensive ensures that russia can never launch an attack on Sloviansk.

And with no chance to take Sloviansk, russia has also lost the Battle of Donbas.

putin is a moron, and now all can finally see that.

A smart leader would pull back into defensible positions, if he even still can, rather than watch his military gets ripped apart for absolutely no gain. A sociopathic narcissist who already can't handle his very public failures? Not so much even though it's a smarter move to preserve his forces.

[LFC]

More evidence that Russia's shift of assets to the south opened up a new opportunity for Ukraine to attack in the north. They're simply trying to hold too much territory with too few military resources. In the process they're losing more and more of those resources. I'm sure Putin is demanding they defend everything instead of allowing to figure out and defend what they can.

⚡️ISW: Russia’s deployment of forces to Ukraine’s south likely enabling Ukrainian counterattacks.

The Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine's counterattack in Kharkiv on Sept. 6 was likely an opportunistic effort enabled by the redeployment of Russian forces away from the area to reinforce their positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.

Obituary data on Russian soldiers suggests Russia deployed elements of the 147th Artillery Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army to Kherson Oblast no earlier than late August.

This is the first time ISW has observed elements of Russia’s elite 1st Guards Tank Army operating in southern Ukraine.

[LFC]

This is an analysis from yesterday which is already a little out of date, but it hits several points on just how badly the Russians are being outmaneuvered.

Yesterday, UAF proclaimed they had reached the level where 50,000 RU soldiers are "casualties." Not sure if those are killed, wounded, captured, deserted...but if close to the truth, that's 1/3 of the original RU force

Most were likely fighting forces, not support troops. 4/

After successful Donbas defense, Zelenskyy & Gen Zaluzhnyi saw an opportunity to shift forces to southern Ukraine.

Very smart move, since it was difficult for a depleted & immobile RU force to move to counter.

Plus, UKR has interior lines, easier for shifting. 5/

Add to that, UA has reinforced their forces with new soldiers, new equipment. Plus, they are resisting in areas where RU is trying to defending.

RU is nursing wounds, bearing loss of combat capabilities (people & equipment), have bad leaders. 6/

UA defense & small-scale counterattacks in Donbas along w/ recent deliberate attacks in Kherson (destroying RU logistics, bridges & ammo dumps) has generated a commander's favorite ally: momentum!

It has also placed RU on the horns of a dilemma: Where (& how) to defend? 7/

Russia's additional problems:
-a massively depleted force with few reinforcements
-hard to move/maneuver
-active UKR resistance + more capable & precision UKR conventional force (with good targeting)
-hampered supply lines + dysfunctional logistics
-crush of sanctions 8/

If I were Ukraine's field commander, here are my questions:
-Can we continue Donetz defense (all indications, yes).
-Are actions in Kherson Oblast achieving objectives (yes)
-If we attack toward Kharkiv will it draw RU forces away from Donbas & increase pressure (likely) 9/

[LFC]

Meanwhile, back in the south, the pontoon bridges are now vulnerable. Remember they said that the Russian forces on the west side of the river require about 500 trucks per day to deliver necessary supplies. Doing that by pontoon bridge is already a bit of a choke as speed is lowered. Doing it without a pontoon bridge means go to barges (if they have them) which is brutally slow.

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent

⚡️ Ukraine hits Russian pontoon bridges in Kherson Oblast.

According to the Southern Operational Command, Ukrainian forces attack two floating bridges near Darivka and Hola Prystan.

All Russian pontoon bridges in the region are in firing range, the military says.
9:36 AM · Sep 6, 2022

[LFC]

Down south Ukraine continues its slow push towards the Dnipro River. The Russian forces trapped between the Ukrainian military and the river have to either a) stop the Ukrainians, b) somehow manage a path of retreat, or c) stay and get f***ed which means either dying or surrendering. I don't think there's any other real outcomes for them here.

[LFC]

Germany, get on the ball!

"The German equipment delivered so far is not even sufficient to last another month," says @rustem_umerov. "We need at least ten times as much, of everything. Combat intensity is extremely high, and that intensity is deadly..."

"We need everything, 155mm grenades, multiple rocket launchers like the MLRS, armored personnel carriers & main battle tanks, and lots of everything. So far, only ten percent of the promised weapon systems have arrived."

"My main message is: We are primarily concerned with quantity and not so much with quality...We need howitzers and armored personnel carriers like the Marder, air defense weapons like the IRIS-T system, which can engage targets up to 40 kilometers away in all directions."

[LFC]

Here's an analysis of Russia's ammunition manufacturing problems. The upshot:

The destruction of Russian equipment and wearing out of barrels etc is causing them to use a diverse array of older guns. The charges needed for these guns are different and so there are bottlenecks in supply other than ammunition that may make shopping easier than making. 13/15

So how does this change the outlook. It suggests that the Russians can't resource the weight of fire they managed in June long term. It also increases the effect of strikes on their logistics. Finally, it makes the ongoing accidents at Russian industrial sites problematic. 14/15

However, for unguided ammunition natures of 152mm, 122mm shells and 122mm rockets domestic production is likely able to step up to ensure long term supply. If the Russians really lean into economic mobilisation that could pick up drastically next year. 15/15.

If they throw their all into it they might get manufacturing up to speed but will they have the artillery still in shape (and not destroyed) to use the ammo? Will they have soldiers to fire the guns that exist? Russia is burning through everything at one hell of a pace. They somehow have to crank up everything, including manpower. I don't know they have it in them. I guess we'll find out.

[LFC]

Sept 7, 2022 20:30:40 GMT LFC said:

Meanwhile, back in the south, the pontoon bridges are now vulnerable. Remember they said that the Russian forces on the west side of the river require about 500 trucks per day to deliver necessary supplies. Doing that by pontoon bridge is already a bit of a choke as speed is lowered. Doing it without a pontoon bridge means go to barges (if they have them) which is brutally slow.

Cheezes, they're already getting hammered. Their supply lines must be bordering, or already at, being non-functional.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@warmonitor3

Russian forces continue to try to establish pontoon bridges over the Dnipro river near Kherson.

They have tried 3 times and got destroyed 3 times.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

Date   Vehicles     Tanks       Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks
5/27:  4150 (+475)  733 (+62)  13 weeks
6/02:  4207  (+57)  747 (+14)  14 weeks
6/09:  4273  (+66)  762 (+15)  15 weeks
--
7/05:  4573 (+200)  830 (+68)  19 weeks
7/12:  4683 (+110)  865 (+35)  20 weeks
7/19:  4738  (+45)  869  (+4)  21 weeks
7/26:  4822  (+84)  887 (+18)  22 weeks
8/02:  5038 (+216)  922 (+35)  23 weeks
8/09:  5103  (+65)  930  (+8)  24 weeks
8/16:  5200  (+97)  952 (+22)  25 weeks
8/23:  5321 (+121)  970 (+18)  26 weeks
8/30:  5362  (+41)  988 (+18)  27 weeks
9/07:  5554 (+192) 1022 (+34)  28 weeks (one day late)

The destruction is back up again. With the offensives in both Kherson and Kharkiv I don't expect low numbers next week.

[LFC]

Shortly after I posted that I stumbled onto this. 50,000 dead means a staggering number of total casualties.

Then there's this. Estimated Russian casualties and equipment losses are a lot higher than the individually verified numbers, as you can imagine. And they're accelerating.

Putin seems like a deer in the headlights. His military is being pummeled and there's still no sign of a real, tactical withdrawal. And where's their air power?

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

yep--but so far the Russians have been afraid to fly over the battle area

Trent Telenko
@trenttelenko

The only rapidly available tool for the Russians appears to be airpower.

The Russians have to commit the VKS in a big way to slow this Ukrainian break-in down and helicopter lift infantry blocking forces in front of the Ukrainians to save their logistical position at Izyum.

Izyum is backed up against another river. Not as wide as the Dnipro to the south but wide enough at 100-200', making it an obstacle for heavy equipment. If, however, Russian troops get pushed pretty much east and just a hair north then they're above a dam and things get a lot wider and deeper.

[LFC]

Ukraine suckered Putin right in.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

The Ukrainian move to draw Russian forces into Kherson is clearly one of the great strategic moves of the war. It brought some of the best Russian units into Kherson where they cant be supplied and are being methodically attrited. And made the Russians thin the line in Kharkiv.

Reports of Russian losses continue to mount, including from among the Russian soldiers. These are from the Twitter account for Ruslan Trad who describes himself as, "Security Researcher at @atlanticcouncil’s @dfrlab;🔎 Russia, Syria, and hybrid warfare." He paints the same picture we've been seeing reported elsewhere. Nice of Russian soldiers to use the readily accessible Telegram to provide info.

Telegram channels are full of graphic images and video footage of Russian soldiers in Kherson and Eastern Ukraine. For the last few hours, the Russian army has been experiencing serious blows. Entire units have been wiped out.

Towns are falling. I've read that defensive positions in cities will likely be bombed and starved rather than rushing in to what would be brutal street fighting.

With the recent counterattacks, Ukraine’s army has already taken back about a dozen settlements moving forward both on the southern and the eastern fronts. The Russian units and linked channels are in unprecedented hysteria.

More on what is being posted up.

Today in Ukraine, the Russian army is suffering a humiliation not seen for a long time. The footage shows both many killed on the fronts in southern and eastern Ukraine, as well as POWs. Will Moscow defend its “For ours!” mantra and get its soldiers back? I doubt.

Russians are pissed. The observation here is that this doesn't mean they'll actually turn on the war.

Comments on Russian forums show anger against the officers, accused of incompetence that allowed the Ukrainian forces to advance. In such situations, countries like Russia are unpredictable. Don't expect public criticism demanding an end to the war - quite the opposite.

From what I've read, and posted here, many elite and ordinary Russians have very high opinions of themselves compared to the Ukrainians, despite the fact that Ukraine was actually on a better track on multiple fronts than the shithole they live in. It may take a lot of death, destruction, and economic pain to break their support. They're practically genetically programmed to blame everybody else for their woes, in this case Ukraine for ... I guess fighting back.

[LFC]

WaPo has an article detailing the challenges that the Ukrainian forces are having down in Kherson. The casualties are apparently fairly high and Russia still retains some real advantages.

The soldiers were interviewed on gurneys and in wheelchairs as they recovered from injuries sustained in the offensive. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid disciplinary action. Others, like Denys and Ihor, agreed to reveal only their first names. But most spoke plainly about the disadvantages they faced.

Russia’s Orlan drones exposed Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their movements.

Russian tanks emerged from newly built cement fortifications to blast infantry with large-caliber artillery, the wounded Ukrainian soldiers said. The vehicles would then shrink back beneath the concrete shelters, shielded from mortar and rocket fire.

Counter-battery radar systems automatically detected and located Ukrainians who were targeting the Russians with projectiles, unleashing a barrage of artillery fire in response.

Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.

Ukraine has discouraged coverage of the offensive, resulting in an information lag on a potentially pivotal inflection point in the nearly seven-month conflict.

People and their f***ing phones. How can they not know this?

Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members — a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.

“When we turn on mobile phones or radio, they can recognize our presence immediately,” said Denys. “And then the shooting starts.”

This occurs on both sides. Ukraine has been using Russian cellphone signals to target troops, equipment, and recently a pontoon bridge as it was in use.

Unlike up north Russia had already prepared defensive positions.

Thomas C. Theiner
@noclador

The Kherson Offensive is slower than the Kupiansk Offensive, as russia built a series of defensive lines in Kherson to fall back to once Ukraine broke through the frontline.

russia built no such lines in the Kupiansk sector and so Ukrainian troops are able to maneuver there.

On top of that the topography of the area makes any offensive difficult.

D. mojavensis 🇺🇲 🇺🇦
@dmojavensis

Not only did they build fortifications, but also Kherson Oblast has a large number of irrigation canals, which a) themselves can be used for defense and b) can not be easily crossed by the advancing enemy.

I can understand why Ukraine is concentrating on destroying supply lines and cutting of the Russians rather than trying to battle them head to head.

[LFC]

Evidence is now out that Ukraine has been supplied with, and is using, some very, very accurate artillery rounds. They are accurate enough to target an individual tank from 40-70 km away, depending upon the gun firing it. And apparently a direct hit isn't remotely required. Tests showed that armored vehicles and/or their crew can be disabled if the round lands within 30m of its target. They are actually rated to have about 94% of rounds land within 10m of their target.

1/ Why is visual confirmation that Ukraine now has M982 Excalibur artillery rounds in its inventory such a big f'ing deal, as a certain US president might say? A 🧵 on why Russia might well need to fear Excalibur more than HIMARS.

[snip]

3/ A donation of Excalibur rounds by Canada was reported way back in April. The US media also reported planned future donations of Excalibur in July/August. But as far as I know this is the first published visual evidence that they're now actually in use in Ukraine.

4/ Excalibur is a Swedish-US 155mm artillery round that can be fired from a range of NATO-standard artillery systems. It's GPS-guided, gliding on folding fins from the top of its ballistic arc onto its target. Before firing, the target coordinates are set using the EPIAFS system. Image

5/ Excalibur is extraordinarily accurate, with a circular error probable (CEP) of only 5m. (In testing, 1.6m CEP was achieved.) It effectively turns 155mm howitzers into oversized sniper rifles capable of picking off individual targets from tens of kilometers away.

6/ To understand why this is so significant, let's dip a little bit into the concept of CEP. It's simply a circle within which 50% of shots will land. Another 43.7% of shots will land within a wider circle equivalent to twice the radius of the first 50%.



[snip]

9/ Let's consider the real-world impact of this using the T-72 tank. A T-72 hull is 6.95 m long by 3.59 m wide. Here's what it looks like (roughly) superimposed on the 5m CEP of an Excalibur round. 93.7% of shots are either going to hit it directly or impact within 8m at most.

[LFC]

Ukraine has retaken the city of Balakliya in the north. As their offensive continues a large Russian force is more and more at risk of being completely cut off from their supply lines. On top of that Ukraine could the primary rail and road routes that are critical to Russia's aim of taking control of and holding the entire Donbas. While the world was looking at Kherson the Ukrainians pulled a real strategic maneuver that could be disastrous to the Russians.

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@iaponomarenko

This is incredible, folks.
Balakliya has been retaken.
I think the next main goal is Kupyansk — the key railroad and automobile transportation center between Russia and northern and central Donbas.
Sever this GLOC and Russians are in the world of shit.

[LFC]

More reporting on progress in the northern offensive.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@warmonitor3

“Armed Forces of Ukraine says over 20 settlements were liberated in Kharkiv region, in some areas penetration in Russian defense positions up to 50 kms”

[LFC]

Dafuq? Is this for real or is this just a forward group of scouts? Either way it's not what Russia wants to see.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@warmonitor3
Picture of Ukrainian soldiers in front of Izyum District sign.
"We are already here"

[LFC]

And more analysis.

So what is happening in Kharkiv?

(I tell you the map that I’ve draw for this is 🤌)

Red is the Ru front line. Red circle is Izyum which is a town the Russians need to hold for logistical reasons if they want to go further into Donbas. Yellow is a KEY railway junction and black is the railway from Russia down which all the supplies come.



So as you can see from my artwork, the Ukr are taking advantage of the thinned out Ru front lines to try and capture that railway junction which will cut the supplies to Izyum, which will cause most of that Ru front to collapse. If they pull that off it’s serious rout time.

But there is something also very interesting.

Kherson front = total news blackout
Kharkiv front = loads of videos of Ru prisoners, positions under attack, Ru equip destroyed etc.

(And Ru telegram channels confirm that on both fronts the Ukr are making significant gains)

So why the difference in what the Ukr are allowing out from the two fronts? They are the masters of info ops (or at least have been so far in the war)

My guess is that Kherson is still the prize or main effort - more important strategically and lots of Ru troops trapped there in the blender.

But they are releasing videos of panicking Ru up in Kharkiv to overload Ru decision making, and maybe force them to redeploy some assets

After all - Kharkiv is not a big front - the Ru there can just retreat across the border. Donbas is more important to Ru, and Crimea even more important still (Kherson is gateway to Crimea)

And so looking forward - my prediction from two days ago still stands - that Kherson is the way to Crimea and Russian collapse, but the Kharkiv front is just a nice little side line that makes that easier.

[indy]

Sept 8, 2022 20:06:46 GMT LFC said:

Dafuq? Is this for real or is this just a forward group of scouts? Either way it's not what Russia wants to see.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@warmonitor3
Picture of Ukrainian soldiers in front of Izyum District sign.
"We are already here"

Anything is possible, but I don't take these things too seriously. They literally make those signs, and they could be erected anywhere.  But damn, these guys are good.

[LFC]

Shit is happening quickly. Ukraine is clearly pushing for a major railway junction which would cut supplies off from a large force of Russians in Izium to the south. I suspect there's some real panic in Russia's leadership ranks right now.

Franz-Stefan Gady
@hoanssolo

The speed of the 🇺🇦 advance is remarkable.
map: Nathan Ruser

[LFC]

Some additional info on why the railways are so important. Apparently Russia doesn't have nearly enough truck to keep their troops supplied and are dependent on rail.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

Ive probably been the most damning critic of the Russian Armed forces from before Feb 24, but I cant believe they are this terrible. Do they have no reserves? Nothing protecting supply lines? Im worried that they cant be this bad--because the Ukrainians really are exposed.

This is also the problem for a rail born army with a dwindling truck supply, such as the Russians. It’s not easy to move a force quickly without planning. With lots of trucks the Russians would at least have options to try and rush reinforcements.

[andydp]

Sept 9, 2022 14:55:44 GMT LFC said:

Some additional info on why the railways are so important. Apparently Russia doesn't have nearly enough truck to keep their troops supplied and are dependent on rail.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

Ive probably been the most damning critic of the Russian Armed forces from before Feb 24, but I cant believe they are this terrible. Do they have no reserves? Nothing protecting supply lines? Im worried that they cant be this bad--because the Ukrainians really are exposed.

This is also the problem for a rail born army with a dwindling truck supply, such as the Russians. It’s not easy to move a force quickly without planning. With lots of trucks the Russians would at least have options to try and rush reinforcements.

I wrote my original on a spin bike, so I want to clean it up a little.  My first thought was that I'm happy to see the adage about armies march on their stomachs is being verified.

Since the US Civil War railroads have been mainstays in military supply operations. To say they are a strategic and tactical asset would be too simplistic. I don’t have to explain the capabilities of one railroad vs the same capacity in vehicles.  Even in the era of air power, nothing beats a railroad for hauling supplies.  Air resupply would have to be in the scale of the Berlin Airlift. Ru AF has been missing in this conflict.

Protection of supply lines and equipment is the only way to make sure your supplies get there.  Supply lines are assumed to be in secure areas and not subject to disruption.  We have seen the Ru Army is incapable of doing much.  They lack ability to establish bridgeheads and realistically you can only use them temporarily until you get "permanent" bridges built.  (Doctrinally bridgeheads also need to be secure from enemy fire.)  I noted in one account they are "rafting" supplies. This is NOT a preferred method because its much slower.

A MAJOR CAVEAT:

If the Uk Army cuts off the Ru army be prepared for some “desperate” move. I don’t have to say it out loud.

[LFC]

Reports are flying in. One is that Sen'Kove was freed. That's at the north end of the Oskill River/Reservoir, about 30 miles NE of Izyum, which would be necessary to control to prevent the large body of Russian forces in Izyum from receiving supplies or escaping by land in that direction. BTW that is 35 miles ENE of where they were just a few days ago.

Here's a photo of Ukrainian troops who, allegedly have taken Kupyansk at the very north end of the Oskill Reservoir. That would mean they have control of the northern end of the river.

There's also reports of fighting in Bilohorivka which is about 30 miles ESE of Izyum. It sounds like Urkaine's attempt at encirclement is proceeding.