Ukraine

[LFC]

According to a person who posted this, Russia is basically saying, "It’s just psy-ops, say the Russians. UAF rode in, took a photo, then left again. Everything is fully under Russian control." Bonus points for using the words "deep state" even though they're meaningless in this context.

The question is, of course, how many of these reports are real progress by Ukraine and how many are designed to drive Russian military leadership insane with doubt, leaving them to act like deer in the headlights? It still seems like Dear Leader refuses to let them plan any type of orderly, strategic withdrawal.

[LFC]

This is an interesting animation of the advance, set to an interesting music choice.

[LFC]

These are some more maps of the offensive. That third one with the new southward push shows how close they're coming to cutting off Izyum, the city just west of the southern tip of the Oskil Rive/Reservoir. At this point every supply/escape route for the Russians in Izyum involves a river crossing. The only other choice is to go through the Ukrainian lines which has not worked out so well for a while.

[LFC]

Is this the state of previously mothballed equipment Russia is sending in to battle?

I have no idea where this was taken or if it's legit but I'm sure it will hit all the propaganda channels as Ukraine continues to win those battles.

[LFC]

Russian soldiers abandoned this very important radar component of an advanced counter-battery system. This is a system that can detect incoming artillery rounds and figure out the positions of the guns, a pretty handy thing to have when you're being hammered. I suspect that this is also another military intelligence boon for the U.S. It seems like a lot of Russia's military secrets are being left for the taking.

Speaking of Russian soldiers, this is a video of a Russian tank returning fire and being struck from another direction. The poster points out it was not "hull down", where the main body of the tank is below some sort of cover and only the turret is up in the open. That makes it a much more vulnerable target.

[LFC]

Already? Which direction are the Ukrainians coming from? Conventional wisdom seems to be that the Ukrainians won't invade the city and go street by street but will, instead, cut the Russians off and make them desperate. The big question is, of course, how many civilians are in Izyum who will suffer as much or more?

Status-6
@archer83able

According to reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine approached Russia-occupied city of Izyum in Kharkiv Oblast of Ukraine; the battle is underway there.
4:05 PM · Sep 9, 2022

This chart shows that the entire area of operation is within range of Ukrainian operated / U.S. made M270 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) vehicles.

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@iaponomarenko
M270 MLRS has already been seen in recently-liberated Balakliia — note their effective range against Russian groupings in Kupyansk and Izium, as well as Russia’s ground lines of communications in the region.
Pretty much the whole of the sector is in Ukrainian crosshairs.

[AnBr]

Sept 9, 2022 16:18:16 GMT LFC said:

This is an interesting animation of the advance, set to an interesting music choice.

Isn't that from "The Producers"?

[andydp]

Sept 9, 2022 21:00:38 GMT LFC said:

Is this the state of previously mothballed equipment Russia is sending in to battle?

I have no idea where this was taken or if it's legit but I'm sure it will hit all the propaganda channels as Ukraine continues to win those battles.

Too much to write about.  The BMP normally "floats" about three inches above the water line.  That "wake board" is designed to push the water away from the open hatches. Obviously, a major component to prevent sinking, a real possibility even with the old US M113 personnel carriers.  BMPs actually had propellers or turbo propelling systems and were "slightly" advanced over the US ones.

The tankers who got shot up basically deserved it for being so exposed to hostile fire.  I'm assuming the shot came from the side and is likely a direct fire weapon.  In other words, the tank had to be in their sights and they didn't secure their perimeter.

I said it before, if the supply lines get cut, the Ru Army will have no option but to wither on the vine. With that big an area under the MLRS umbrella, anything is possible. But supply problems are only the beginning.

[LFC]

Sept 10, 2022 0:30:34 GMT andydp said:

The tankers who got shot up basically deserved it for being so exposed to hostile fire.  I'm assuming the shot came from the side and is likely a direct fire weapon.  In other words, the tank had to be in their sights and they didn't secure their perimeter.

I've read a few interesting comments about the Russian tanks. The first is that Ukraine has been supplied with an enormous number of anti-armor weapons so there's a lot of danger for them in every direct conflict. The second is that somebody called their tanks "pop tops" (I don't know what that means) and said that when a tank is hit the entire crew often dies. I do remember reading that latter part earlier in the war. This means that more and more of the tank crews have nobody aboard who is experienced. That's a bad combo for the Russians.

[LFC]

This map shows the criticality of Kupiansk to the Russian's rail supply of a large northwester swath of the Donbas.

[LFC]

I can't even follow all the actions being reported now. It sounds like Ukrainians pushed in some areas, Russia reacted by pulling troops from other areas, and now the Ukrainians are breaking through in multiple places. I've read several comments that while the Ukrainian forces are moving quickly the Russian defense line was actually so thin and the collapse of many units so fast that they can't keep up. It must be insane trying to figure out which units to send where at a time like this.

Meanwhile it appear that Izyum is pretty much encircled. Ukraine controls all the main roads out. One report said that civilians were being evacuated and that there were roughly 10,000 Russian troop caught there.

[LFC]

I'm generally skittish of DailyKos but they appear to have a good summary of what is know up to this point.

Events are happening so quickly in the Ukrainian counteroffensive that it’s genuinely impossible to cover them all. This morning, the version of the map posted showed just under 1,000 square kilometers of territory liberated by Ukrainian forces in this single drive across Kharkiv Oblast. Eight hours later, that number is over 1,600 square kilometers. Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken out the bridge at Kupyansk, captured the town of Senkove, and possibly even moved 10 km down the eastern bank of the Oskil River. There are reports that Ukraine has liberated Buhaivka, which was known to be the site of a major Russian vehicle storage and repair depot, and of units engaged as far south as Vesele and Kunje, less than 20 km north of Izyum

And that’s far from all. Just three days ago, this was part of the morning Ukraine update:

Lyman. Remember Lyman? It was one of the largest town Russia had captured when it fell in mid-May, and that’s about the last time we’ve had a reason to mention it. Only I’m mentioning it now, because Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken Staryi Karavan, only 3km from Lyman.

There are reports on Friday that there is active fighting in both the suburbs and in Lyman itself, as what was thought to be a token force of Ukrainian troops in Staryi Karavan and Ozerne surges to the north. It’s getting to where there is no place in Ukraine safe for a Russian military crew. Just as it should be.

It goes on with a lot of information. They clearly state when it is strongly corroborated and when it's still a bit shaky. That's good. I'm worried about picking up too much rah-rah info.

[LFC]

Speaking of can't follow what's happening, all I did was post and look at DailyKos's homepage. The top article, posted less than 15 minutes ago, reports massive collapse across Russian defenses.

In a day that caps what has been an already incredible offensive freeing of thousands of square kilometers in northeast Ukraine, Saturday morning brought news that seems too perfect to be true: Russian forces have reportedly either fled or surrendered in Kupyansk, then in Lyman, and now in Izyum. Locations that have been under Russian occupation for months, and at the center of Russian operations in eastern Ukraine, have been freed.

Not only that, but all three areas have been freed without a protracted street to street battle, or drawn out artillery duel. Meaning that, unlike cities captured by Russia such as Severodonetsk or Mariupol, these cities have not been reduced to rubble in the process. It’s the very definition of a win win. With an extra win.

You might notice that this morning’s update doesn’t come with maps. That’s because I don’t have a clue about how to draw them. Russian forces have reportedly fled these strategic cities, but have they also moved away from all the front line positions they’ve fought over so long? What’s going on in Andriivka and Ivanivka, and at dozens of other points that now find themselves on the wrong side of a line that flew back 50km seemingly overnight? There are reports of large scale surrenders in some areas, and of highways clogged with fleeing vehicles in others. Nothing is confirmed, and it will likely be days before the picture becomes clear.

Is the capture of these cities in any sense complete? There are plenty of images coming in from Kupyansk, but less so from Izyum and Lyman. It’s possible that Ukrainian forces in any of these cities have occupied a portion of that locality, and that there is still fighting ahead. However, reports from Russian sources certainly seem to indicate that Lyman and Izyum are “surrendered”—mostly while screaming at Moscow for failing to take swift action (and in some cases calling for a nuclear strike). There was definitely fighting in Kupyansk, but it seems just as definitely over.

This is an official Russian media outlet reporting that “Russian troops left the city of Izyum in the Kharkov region.” And that’s about the best we’re going to get for anything definitive until Ukraine makes its own official announcement. (On that same outlet’s Telegram channel, there is no mention of Izyum at all. Instead, the only war news is three days of reporting on Ukrainian shelling that reportedly killed two in Donetsk, and a mysterious report of a “line of refugees” at Kupyansk.)

As of early this morning, (6 AM ET, 2 PM in Kyiv) there were reports that Sviatohirsk, in that arc of the front line between Lyman and Izyum, had been occupied by Ukrainian troops that were moving to the west, and that more Ukrainian forces were pressing north from positions south of the city—from places like Dovhen'ke, where they have fought so long and so hard. Those are both good indications that Russian forces have fled, not just the cities, but the smaller locations around them that have marked the front line for weeks, and in some cases months.

The general assumption is, when the dust settles, everything west of the Oskil River will be in Ukrainian control. How far Ukraine also extends its reach to the other side of that river, and to the north of the Siverskyi Donets, is yet to be seen. There is, as yet, no sign of Ukraine sitting back to congratulate themselves on a job well done and taking a break. Maybe they don’t have to. After all, there are numerous reports on Saturday morning of Russian forces fleeing locations like Svatove, which is another 50km from any fighting.

Those Russian reserves that are reaching the area are said to be caught in a traffic tangle with the vehicles of Russian forces, local collaborators, and Russia’s cadre of propaganda artists—all of whom are trying to get out. Chaos is not a bad description.

There is still a lot of information yet to emerge on all fronts.

[andydp]

Sept 10, 2022 13:31:17 GMT LFC said:

Sept 10, 2022 0:30:34 GMT andydp said:

The tankers who got shot up basically deserved it for being so exposed to hostile fire.  I'm assuming the shot came from the side and is likely a direct fire weapon.  In other words, the tank had to be in their sights and they didn't secure their perimeter.

I've read a few interesting comments about the Russian tanks. The first is that Ukraine has been supplied with an enormous number of anti-armor weapons so there's a lot of danger for them in every direct conflict. The second is that somebody called their tanks "pop tops" (I don't know what that means) and said that when a tank is hit the entire crew often dies. I do remember reading that latter part earlier in the war. This means that more and more of the tank crews have nobody aboard who is experienced. That's a bad combo for the Russians.

Russian tanks are not designed for crew survivability:  their ammunition is stored in open racks inside the working area.  I explained before, the US M-1 tank's ammo is stored in the rear of the turret. Except for the panel facing the inside of the turret, it has "flimsy" sides that fly off when the ammo detonates so the force of the explosion does not go into the crew area.

What is a "pop top" tank ?  When the tank is hit, the ammunition detonates, and the turret "pops" off.  The results are calamitous.  I don't have to describe what the inside looks like after a few thousand pounds of ammo goes off.  

[indy]

Hard to tell what's going on but hopefully Russia shows the same sort of competence in retreating as they did in advancing, except faster.

[LFC]

[andydp]

Sept 10, 2022 14:48:05 GMT indy said:

Hard to tell what's going on but hopefully Russia shows the same sort of competence in retreating as they did in advancing, except faster.

Unless done right by a well trained force, a “tactical retreat” can quickly turn into a rout.

We’ve seen Russian abilities in the advance. What we’re witnessing now is likely a rout. You don’t advance 50km if there’s effective, dug in units. If we see reports of abandoned weapons and equipment you can bet the soldiers aren’t planning on going to supplemental positions.

[LFC]

[LFC]

Sept 10, 2022 17:07:29 GMT andydp said:

What we’re witnessing now is likely a rout. You don’t advance 50km if there’s effective, dug in units. If we see reports of abandoned weapons and equipment you can bet the soldiers aren’t planning on going to supplemental positions.

Already multiple reports including this ammunition depot apparently in Balakliia. This is a pile of stuff they should have blown up before leaving, especially since it's all stuff Ukraine is immediately prepared to use against them. I saw a short video of the same stockpile and it's a lot.

[LFC]

Now Donetsk! That's to the ESE of Izyum.

Michael MacKay
@mhmck

The Gauleiter for the Russian fascists in temporarily-occupied Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, has fled the city.

Ukrainian forces are attacking Donetsk airport – for the first time since the epic fight by the “Cyborgs” in 2014-15.
11:33 AM · Sep 10, 2022

[LFC]

This is a recap thread but it notes that the south is still under attack, both from actual Ukrainian military and partisan resistance. So Russia is trying to hold onto an area filled with people trying to kill them. That's gotta' suck.

11/n Meanwhile, there have been explosions in Melitopol, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Crimea, and a whole bunch of other cities, by partisans and the AFU.

russians are unable to reinforce in any area, their weapons are not working, and numerous videos are emerging of their surrenders

Izyum sounds like a quick shit show for the Russians.

14/n Izyum has been liberated on the 10th of Sep, after a surprise operation by the AFU in the dead of night. russians were surrounded, cut off from all communication and supplies, and after taking heavy defeats, tried to run, and then surrendered.

I hope NATO nations will pitch in and help house and care for the POWs. That's an ever greater burden for Ukraine. Of course Russia doesn't have as much of an issue because they're capturing fewer Ukrainians and too often killing them.

[LFC]

Pro-Russian civilian in Kharkiv have been told to run. I assume this means Kharkiv oblast since the city is firmly in Ukrainian hands. That's a huge area.

John Simpson
@johnsimpsonnews

Pro-Russian civilians have been told to leave Kharkiv & escape to Russia to save lives, according to the Russian news agency TASS. Earlier, Ukrainian forces took the key railway hub of Kupiansk, cutting major Russian army supply route. It’s starting to look serious for Putin.

[LFC]

It's almost impossible to keep up as Ukraine drives further than anybody expected. Russia is being pummeled and Putin is being humiliated. I would head to be a high level official anywhere around him.

[LFC]

If these are anywhere close it's a staggering loss for Russia. I suspect they're actually low, and there's no mention of how many Russians are fatalities.

Ukraine Battle Map
@ukraine_map

Russian Military Aid to Ukraine 🇺🇦
From September 7- September 10
-7,000 Soldiers (As Prisoners)
-457 Main Battle Tanks
-1,380 Armored Combat Vehicles
-54 Artillery Pieces with Ammo
-20 Air Defense Systems
-11 Special Equipment

[LFC]

Shorter UA Deputy Minister of Defense: "Chill."