Ukraine

[LFC]

Feb 13, 2023 17:11:41 GMT jackd said:

I have a feeling some of the hype has been generated by Ukraine to enhance its pleas for western aircraft.

Per the piece Ukraine is actually taking a different tack because the trope of massive Russian military prowess has stirred up the "Ukraine has to negotiate NOW!" crowd. One would like to think that anybody expounding on Ukraine's course forward would actually understand the realities of the battlefield, but that's apparently too much to hope for.

[pnwguy]

No wonder the GOP and Fox hosts are pulling for Putin. He knows how to deal with prisoners! I can't wait for the return of Trump in 2025! Make America Fascist Again!

[LFC]

Feb 15, 2023 0:42:58 GMT pnwguy said:

No wonder the GOP and Fox hosts are pulling for Putin. He knows how to deal with prisoners! I can't wait for the return of Trump in 2025! Make America Fascist Again!

Putin rules with an iron fist. All opposition is crushed before it can get started. He has weaponized Christianity with an utterly insane, immoral, and corrupt leader of the Russian Orthodox Church. He turned gays into scapegoats. He run a corrupt network of oligarchs to help him retain power. He doesn't care if those educated eggheads (i.e. people who can actually do shit) leave the country. Election results are a foregone conclusion. All that ever matters is that he wins. He needs to put on sad, pathetic little displays of "manliness" to make himself feel manly.

All in all, they have a virtually identical list of "values."

[LFC]

I've been following a number of sources and here's the general status of the war in Ukraine. With the one year anniversary of the invasion coming up Putin is desperate for a victory. ANY victory. The following are some things that have been well reported on with the current Russian push.

Here's what Russia is doing and trying to accomplish:

• Russia has sent large numbers of recently mobilized soldiers into Ukraine.
• They are trying to create one or more breaks in the Ukrainian defenses to push a large-scale offensive attack.
• A secondary goal is to gain better defensive positioning for the expected counterattacks.
• A further secondary goal is to dull any major Ukrainian offensives planned for spring and summer.
• Despite pushing all along the front line, Russia is failing to make all but the smallest gains. They STILL haven't been able to take Bakhmut and they've been beating that drum for over 6 months.
  
• They are bleeding men and equipment at a much higher rare than Ukraine. KIA is now at 1,000+ per day and equipment is being devastated.
• In some areas they aren't just losing the newly mobilized soldiers, they're losing the long-term experienced ones. Russia has been trying to hold them in reserve but the desperation for a breakthrough has more of them being committed and lost.
  

The Russian military still has many of the same problems and is unlikely to have any great deal of success in their big offensive. Even if they manage to create a break it's doubtful they can capitalize on it with any major push. Compared to when they started the invasion they have fewer and lower quality everything in terms of tanks, fighting vehicles, transport vehicles, artillery, ammo, and on and on. Putin is still mobilizing (it was supposed to have stopped already but didn't) but each successive wave is provided with less and lower quality equipment. Despite moving more to a war economy they still aren't producing what they need in the basics much less high tech equipment.

Thecurrent strategy is mostly to throw masses of troops at fortified positions. It's horrific, insane, but is actually the way Russia has fought for centuries. As the experienced troops are being destroyed, especially officers in command and control, they are becoming less and less capable of actually executing large or even medium scale coordinated operations. Russia has never been able to rule the skies and have lost a lot of aircraft, and now Ukrainian air defenses are much stronger than at the start of the war. And between HIMARS deployment and American intel, supply depots are either 50+ miles away or getting pounded.

All in all Russia seems ill prepared to execute an offensive like this which requires a modern, coordinated, disciplined, and well supplied military. That doesn't mean they aren't dangerous or that they will be easy to dislodge. Inexperienced, poorly supplied troops can be more effective on defense than offense. Ukraine still has a heavy lift to push Russian troops out of their country. My single biggest fear for them are the Republicans who want to yank all aid to support their buddy.

[LFC]

The right-wingers continue to shill for Putin. On a side note, if Kirk is right and Putin is mobilizing an additional 300,000-500,000 conscripts (LOTS of caveats on if that's even possible) then my view is give Ukraine everything they need to destroy them. I hate war in all its forms but if forced to choose which side should take the brunt of the casualties I'm going to pick Russia, hands down. You know, the side murdering, torturing, raping, pillaging, and performing all manner of war crimes against civilians.

Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦
@ronfilipkowski

Nobody is “demanding” this. The UKRAINIAN PEOPLE say they are willing to fight and die to defend every inch of their country from a foreign invader. Just as we would do. Putin allies like Kirk know this, so they dangle fictitious “peace” that really means surrender & subjugation.

[goldenvalley]

Feb 15, 2023 19:15:40 GMT LFC said:

The right-wingers continue to shill for Putin. On a side note, if Kirk is right and Putin is mobilizing an additional 300,000-500,000 conscripts (LOTS of caveats on if that's even possible) then my view is give Ukraine everything they need to destroy them. I hate war in all its forms but if forced to choose which side should take the brunt of the casualties I'm going to pick Russia, hands down. You know, the side murdering, torturing, raping, pillaging, and performing all manner of war crimes against civilians.

Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦
@ronfilipkowski

Nobody is “demanding” this. The UKRAINIAN PEOPLE say they are willing to fight and die to defend every inch of their country from a foreign invader. Just as we would do. Putin allies like Kirk know this, so they dangle fictitious “peace” that really means surrender & subjugation.

Why is Kirk not asking that question of Russia? Hmmmmm...

[LFC]

The great Russian offensive is fizzling as the weather is turning warmer and rainier, which makes fields and some roads impassable due to the mud. There's a chance that they've finally taken Bakhmut but at the cost of massive losses. Further south near Vuhledar they gave up what little they had rushed in to gain and then failed on successive followups, again at the cost of massive losses.

Meanwhile Ukraine has just hit bases and ammo depots in Mariupol, which was supposed to be unreachable by HIMARS. Whether longer range rockets have arrived from the U.S., Ukraine tweaked the HIMARS, or they have some home-grown longer range missiles has yet to be revealed but Russia now finds itself in a position where every square inch of the Donbas is in range along with the top 20-30% of Crimea. They're already struggling to supply troops from 60 miles away and now that appears to be insufficient.

I've read multiple analyses that Ukraine has been biding its time. It's training up more troops, many in specialized operations at NATO bases, and degrading Russian resources as they've desperately flung themselves into offensives to get some kind (ANY KIND!) of win for Putin. On top of that, more equipment is arriving. Watch for Ukrainian offensives in the spring or early summer after the rains are over. Russia is throwing up defenses all over the place so they clearly believe they're coming.

[LFC]

Here's the latest list of support soon to be headed from the U.S. to Ukraine.

A new Pentagon budget realignment file dropped (with $3.8 billions of new orders). Again it has a lot of interesting info about what weapons have been sent to Ukraine... even though every time more and more of the orders are classified (but I have a good idea what they are).
1/13

The thread has a LOT of specifics. It includes a lot of smart munitions.

155mm fuzes, primers, charges: $43m
155mm rounds: $227.1m
155mm Excalibur: $202.6m

This is the first time the Pentagon spends almost as much on Excalibur as on standard 155mm rounds. It's also more than double all of the previous Excalibur orders combined, which were $184,2m

Here comes the range extension which brings us back to every part of the Donbas in range as well as northern Crimea.

So far the Pentagon ordered an extra $480.5m in GMLRS rockets, which is around 3,200 rockets.

This time the Pentagon ordered $1,143,382,000 (!) in GMLRS rockets. But now the type of GMLRS is classified... which makes me think they ordered 7,600+ of the 150km ER-GMLRS.

And then there's Air Force support.

Now onto the US Air Force, which is ordering three new missiles.

AIM-120D AMRAAM: $40m
AGM-158C LRASM: $105,6m
AGM-88G AARGM-ER: $62,7m

Interesting part is that Pentagon says Ukraine received AIM-120B AMRAAM air-to-air missiles - likely for the NASAMS 2 air defense system.

The AGM-158C LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) replaces AGM-84 Harpoonmissiles given to Ukraine... which is interesting, as this is the air-launched variant of the Harpoon... so... maybe Ukraine has now integrated Harpoon anti-ship missiles on their fighters.

The AGM-88G AARGM-ER (Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile Extended Range - to the rear) is a Ramjet upgrade of the AGM-88E HARM (to the front) introduced in 2010.

AGM-88G is the world's most advanced and fastest anti-radiation missile with a 400 km range.

In short: the US Air Force is giving Ukraine excellent older missiles that are great at defeating russia, and replaces them with missles that are meant to defeat China.

At 400km the Kerch Strait Bridge supplying Crimea, which was already badly damaged, is in range.

[LFC]

There's a thread within a thread here explaining how Russia is changing its tactics, but also how it doesn't really have the trained personnel, the training personnel, or the leadership to pull it off in the midst of a war.

This is an another excellent thread from @tatarigami_UA that explores Russian tactical adaptation in eastern #Ukraine. In particular, the shift to infiltration tactics is interesting. A thread on tactical innovation and why it needs to be nested within operational plans. 1/22

[snip]
10/ So there are a couple of challenges for the Russian Army if it is to start using these tactics in the east.
11/ First, to use these tactics widely, the Russians will need to implement a wide scale retraining and re-equipping program in the middle of a war. This includes troops in theatre, and those that are being trained at home.
12/ We should not under estimate the challenge of doing this in a system that is under great pressure and that has lost many of its middle and junior leaders. Do they have the institutional agility for this?
13/ Second, and more importantly, the Russian military needs a plan to exploit the tactical gaps that might be created with such tactics. Once again, having good tactics won't win the war for Russia.
14/ Just ask Germany. Good tactics in WW1 and WW2 did not help them win the wars they started. As Murray and Millett have written: “Mistakes in tactics can be corrected, but political and strategic mistakes live forever.”
15/ Russian exploitation of these tactical 'gaps' created by new tactics would require strong, mobile reserves - based on armoured and mechanised forces - that have the leadership, authority and agility to penetrate deep into Ukrainian territory. Image
16/ Such a operational penetration would aim to dislocate large parts of the Ukrainian defensive scheme of manoeuvre, while destroying HQ, logistics, reserve troops and longer-range artillery.
17/ It is not clear that the Russian Army in #Ukraine now possesses the ability to create tactical 'break ins' and then conduct (and logistically support) operational exploitation. Their losses in personnel, leaders and equipment have been massive.
18/ And even if the Russian were able to concentrate these mechanised reserves, it is highly probable that it would be detected and interdicted by Ukrainian long range fires. The Ukrainians are very good at this!

[andydp]

Feb 15, 2023 22:45:24 GMT goldenvalley said:

Feb 15, 2023 19:15:40 GMT LFC said:

Why is Kirk not asking that question of Russia? Hmmmmm...

To paraphrase Mr Clemenceau at the Versailles negotiations:

History will show the Ukraine did not attack Russia.

[LFC]

Jeezes, if this represents the loss of equipment then how many men did they lose? All of this was due to ill conceived, ill planned, and ill executed offensives launched to soothe the butthurt ego of a desperate madman.

Russia has lost at least 130 tanks and armoured personnel carriers in a three-week battle in the town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian officials said the “epic” fight on a plain near Vuhledar produced the biggest tank battle of the war so far and a stinging setback for the Russians, the New York Times reported.

Lots of other interesting tidbits at the link.

[andydp]

Mar 1, 2023 20:17:12 GMT LFC said:

Jeezes, if this represents the loss of equipment then how many men did they lose? All of this was due to ill conceived, ill planned, and ill executed offensives launched to soothe the butthurt ego of a desperate madman.

Russia has lost at least 130 tanks and armoured personnel carriers in a three-week battle in the town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian officials said the “epic” fight on a plain near Vuhledar produced the biggest tank battle of the war so far and a stinging setback for the Russians, the New York Times reported.

Lots of other interesting tidbits at the link.

Don’t forget each tank or personnel carrier has a crew. The tanks have 4-5 man crew while, personnel carriers have a small crew but carry about 10 soldiers. Losing a tank also means losing the crew.
The question that needs to be asked is are they counting the crews/passengers of these vehicles in the casualty count ?

[LFC]

About that bridge to Crimea...

[andydp]

Not sure if I read this here or not but its a keeper.

"If Trump was President when the Russians attacked, they would be in Poland by now."

Found it !!


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/if-donald-trump-were-president-during-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-vladimir-putin-s-forces-would-be-in-poland-right-now-scaramucci-says/vi-AA188kc2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=899e3be0502c4791d01d667cf4a67d93&ei=32

[AnBr]

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Could Not be Prevented

In the end, it wasn’t NATO that threatened Russia, it was Ukraine itself. Not militarily — Ukraine’s military was tiny, and while more effective when measured soldier for soldier than the Russian horde, it was a defensive force, not an invasion force. The threat from Ukraine came in the form of a functional democracy. Note, all democracies are dysfunctional, but Ukraine’s was no more dysfunctional than many, and better as a whole than quite a few.

Ukraine’s economy was growing rapidly, and despite a much lower GDP the average citizen of Ukraine lived better than the average Russian. Better roads, better plumbing, better internet, better rule of law, better opportunities in business. Since ousting the Russian puppet in 2014 (in a completely legal manner in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine) the country was on a bumpy, pot-hole filled path to success, and Russia could see this. Putin saw it, but more troubling to Putin was that Russians could see it.

Ukraine was probably not joining NATO but they were growing apart from Russia. With their modernizing military perhaps eventually would have taken back the occupied Donbas and Crimeans start to realize life is better there. Economically he was losing the country. For the wannabe Czar this could not be.

[LFC]

Mar 3, 2023 6:02:19 GMT AnBr said:

Ukraine was probably not joining NATO but they were growing apart from Russia. With their modernizing military perhaps eventually would have taken back the occupied Donbas and Crimeans start to realize life is better there. Economically he was losing the country. For the wannabe Czar this could not be.

Before the war Ukraine explicitly offered to sign off on never joining NATO, but contrary to Putin's bullshit that was never the real fear. It was always that they would join the EU and leave the festering remains of Russia behind. It was well reported early in the war how stunned many Russian soldiers were at the living conditions of the average Ukrainians, hence all of the reported washing machine thefts. If you live outside the Moscow or St. Petersburg areas life is pretty hard and Putin has no real ideas or even interest in improving that.

[andydp]

Why is this attitude so familiar ?  Remember: History will show Ukraine did not invade Russia.

Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us'


Sergey Lavrov, Russia's top diplomat and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a conference in India Thursday said that the war in Ukraine "was launched against us," prompting the crowd to erupt in laughter.

Lavrov was a speaker at India's G20 Summit in New Delhi, leading a session that was part of a "Raisina Dialogue 2023" series. He was in discussion with Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman of the Observer Research Foundation in India, and took questions from the audience.

One audience member asked Lavrov: "How the war has affected Russia's strategy on energy, and will it mark a privilege toward Asia? And if it does, how is India going to feature in it?"

"You know, the war, which we are trying to stop, which was launched against us, using the..." Lavrov began, before being cut off by loud laughter from the crowd.

"...The Ukrainian people, uh, of course, influenced..." Lavrov tried again, before being cut off by more laughter and a shout of "Come on!" from the crowd.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/crowd-erupts-in-laughter-at-russia-s-top-diplomat-after-he-claimed-the-ukraine-war-was-launched-against-us/ar-AA18bUHI?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=778a78ea91904ca0a0fcfc60ffd89fc6&ei=7

[andydp]

Mar 3, 2023 18:54:08 GMT LFC said:

Mar 3, 2023 6:02:19 GMT AnBr said:

Ukraine was probably not joining NATO but they were growing apart from Russia. With their modernizing military perhaps eventually would have taken back the occupied Donbas and Crimeans start to realize life is better there. Economically he was losing the country. For the wannabe Czar this could not be.

Before the war Ukraine explicitly offered to sign off on never joining NATO, but contrary to Putin's bullshit that was never the real fear. It was always that they would join the EU and leave the festering remains of Russia behind. It was well reported early in the war how stunned many Russian soldiers were at the living conditions of the average Ukrainians, hence all of the reported washing machine thefts. If you live outside the Moscow or St. Petersburg areas life is pretty hard and Putin has no real ideas or even interest in improving that.

Sorry to go on a tangent, but that is my attitude about what an attack on South Korea would devolve to:

North Korean Military will stop at the first McDonalds and gorge themselves into a stupor.  

[jackd]

Probably not so for China and Taiwan however.

[LFC]

One reason why Russia needs to be pushed out of Ukraine. War criminals and terrorists should not be rewarded.

[jackd]

International legal concepts are really irrelevant without courts or other agencies of competent and effective jurisdiction to enforce them. Currently there are none in this context.

[LFC]

Ukraine is slowly withdrawing from Bakhmut. They had recently reinforced some areas which caused a lot of hand wringing over whether they knew what they were doing or were getting sucked in on a losing proposition. (Not by cooler heads who've been following the two sides closely, BTW.) It turns out they very much knew what they were doing and are, once again, sucking the Russians in and bleeding the hell out of them. Ukrainian troops have been withdrawing a little, Russia tries to move in quickly, and they get hit with urban defenses which are brutal to overcome. Prigozhin is losing his shit because in this kind of fighting he has to commit his best Wagner Force troops, not a pile of prisoners who simply absorb Ukrainian ammo with their bodies.

Here's a good daily report out of Ukraine. It's certainly a little biased but he doesn't shy away from tactical setbacks and his annotated maps are the easiest to follow that I've found. He explains just how Ukraine positioned themselves for what's happening now. BTW I've followed a number of sources and have seen no indication that Russia is capable of executing this kind of multi-point, coordinated planning.

[andydp]

Mar 7, 2023 19:10:39 GMT LFC said:

Ukraine is slowly withdrawing from Bakhmut. They had recently reinforced some areas which caused a lot of hand wringing over whether they knew what they were doing or were getting sucked in on a losing proposition. (Not by cooler heads who've been following the two sides closely, BTW.) It turns out they very much knew what they were doing and are, once again, sucking the Russians in and bleeding the hell out of them. Ukrainian troops have been withdrawing a little, Russia tries to move in quickly, and they get hit with urban defenses which are brutal to overcome. Prigozhin is losing his shit because in this kind of fighting he has to commit his best Wagner Force troops, not a pile of prisoners who simply absorb Ukrainian ammo with their bodies.

Here's a good daily report out of Ukraine. It's certainly a little biased but he doesn't shy away from tactical setbacks and his annotated maps are the easiest to follow that I've found. He explains just how Ukraine positioned themselves for what's happening now. BTW I've followed a number of sources and have seen no indication that Russia is capable of executing this kind of multi-point, coordinated planning

This is being shown to us time and time again.  Russians are being played like a cheap violin.  The Russian attitude is one where you're winning and the enemy is a disorganized mess. Reality shows us, the Russian think they're winning, Ukrainians sucker them in further.  Where they run up against a well entrenched and highly organized Army taking them apart piecemeal and eliminating their best soldiers. 

[goldenvalley]

Mar 7, 2023 19:39:31 GMT andydp said:

This is being shown to us time and time again.  Russians are being played like a cheap violin.  The Russian attitude is one where you're winning and the enemy is a disorganized mess. Reality shows us, the Russian think they're winning, Ukrainians sucker them in further.  Where they run up against a well entrenched and highly organized Army taking them apart piecemeal and eliminating their best soldiers. 

When will the Russian army run out of cannon fodder?  Can the Ukrainians sustain inevitable losses while having to turn the fodder into fodder?  

[LFC]

Mar 7, 2023 21:30:21 GMT goldenvalley said:

Mar 7, 2023 19:39:31 GMT andydp said:

This is being shown to us time and time again.  Russians are being played like a cheap violin.  The Russian attitude is one where you're winning and the enemy is a disorganized mess. Reality shows us, the Russian think they're winning, Ukrainians sucker them in further.  Where they run up against a well entrenched and highly organized Army taking them apart piecemeal and eliminating their best soldiers. 

When will the Russian army run out of cannon fodder?  Can the Ukrainians sustain inevitable losses while having to turn the fodder into fodder?  

Generally the opinion seems to be yes if (and it's a big if) the West gives Ukraine the arms, ammo, and supplies they need to get the job done. There's been a lot of criticism over the lag in getting them Leopard tanks and longer range rockets.