2022 Congressional & State Elections

[LFC]

Oct 10, 2021 0:57:10 GMT AnBr said:

Democrats edge toward dumping Iowa’s caucuses as the first presidential vote

The caucuses have always struck me as undemocratic as they favor those who have no problem taking the time off. Time to leave them in the dustbin of history. And if Iowa doesn't do it you can at least make it not matter.

[LFC]

Oct 10, 2021 14:05:04 GMT Traveler said:

This.  Dems have done absolutely NOTHING to address the elephant in the room. 

Progressives hate to admit the kind of country we actually live in. They want to change the character of the nation through legislation only. It doesn't work that way, especially if you don't even have enough of a critical mass to actually create legislation. The Republicans went full metal Atwater during the BLM protests. Violence by protesters was screeched about at 11. So was violence by opportunistic non-protesters. So was violence by right-wing counter-protesters. It was all heaped on the nnnn... BLM protesters. You gotta' hand it to the GOP, they know their ignorant, frightened, racist audience.

[LFC]

Josh Marshall on Ezra Klein's article citing David Schor. It's not optimistic. The part about enormous, oversized expectations from the Democrats when they have almost the slimmest of majorities possible rings very true but without big accomplishments the Dems have nothing to run on. S&M are killing the one best chance at the party maintaining any level of power.

This is truly the season of Democrats’ discontent. Ezra Klein has this piece about David Shor, which is an interesting and illuminating read on its own terms but is also a window into these anxious, verging on frenzied intra-Democratic debates. You’ll find neologisms like “popularism” which is a sort of hipster, data-science rebranding of what a generation of Democrats have ridiculed as poll-tested, consultant-driven campaigning. Which doesn’t mean it’s wrong!

The idea is that Democrats, clustered in major cities and lead by a cadre of hyper-educated activists and campaign professionals, have political views that are much to the left of the average voter and much more to the left than they realize. Given the range of structural factors weighted against them – electoral college, gerrymandering, Big Lies, etc. – their only hope is to mercilessly review their policy wishlists, choose the ones that poll really well and shut up about the rest.

Klein’s article is a good window into these debates, whichever of them you think has the better part of the argument. But the real story – or the one that seems most meaningful – is the landscape in which various factions each have their own pet theories of the proper way forward for Democrats. Each argument is good as far as it goes. But step back a bit and you realize that successful political movements or parties or campaigns need to do all these things at once. What you really see is an anxious bordering on frenzied exchange defined by a common belief in looming disaster in the 2022 midterm election. Everything is suddenly existential – the threats, the proposed solutions and the necessity of getting the right strategy to avoid the first and implement the second.

And of course it’s not one disaster but the belief that this one will lock in that exclusion from power into the future, whether it’s from gerrymandering that will last through the 2020s or a Congress that, empowered by the Big Lie, will simply refuse to certify a Democratic presidential win in 2024.

I wish I could say that I’m here to peel back all this doom-casting. But I’m not. I’m not endorsing it. But all these fears and warnings and the realities that spawn them are quite real. The surprise twin senate victories in Georgia were one of the best and most unexpected things to happen for Democrats in ages. But in one way they were a poisoned chalice: they created a nominal majority and a frenzied drive to do something, anything … if possible everything to stave off what was coming: adding new states, passing federal democracy protection legislation, historic climate legislation, the biggest reboot of the American social safety net in half a century, immigration reform, rebalancing the federal judiciary.

[LFC]

Republicans despair at ‘clown show’ primary candidates for Missouri Senate seat

My question is, what Republicans? These clowns are the base of the party now. They're the movers and shakers, the public face of the party. Maybe they're worried about losing but they certainly can't be upset that their own kind is running.

A wide-open Republican primary for the retiring Sen. Roy Blunt's seat in the U.S. Senate has attracted a melange of conservative characters, but GOP insiders are worried about their chances to win the general election.

Disgraced former governor Eric Greitens has eked out a lead in the polls at about 35 percent support, ahead of state attorney general Eric Schmitt, Rep. Billy Long, Rep. Vicky Hartzler and Mark McCloskey, the St. Louis lawyer who was photographed with his wife pointing guns at Black Lives Matter protesters, and Donald Trump ally Rep. Jason Smith is also considering a run, reported Politico.

"To call it a clown show is an underestimation of the chaos, the pandering, the disingenuousness of the candidates," said one longtime Missouri Republican activist. "You cannot overestimate how bizarre this primary is shaping up to be. In that world, who says McCloskey can't win?"

[LFC]

Kinzinger has given up trying to accomplish anything in the fascist party.

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), one of the few Republican lawmakers who’ve been outspoken in denouncing ex-President Donald Trump, announced on Friday morning that he will not run for reelection in the 2022 midterms.

Kinzinger posted a video on Twitter declaring that the “time is now” for him to leave Congress.

The GOP lawmaker lamented that the “price tag to power has skyrocketed, and fear and distrust has served as an effective strategy to meet that cost.”

“We’ve allowed leaders to reach power selling the false premise that strength comes from degrading others and dehumanizing those that look, act or think differently than we do,” he said. “As a country, we’ve fallen for those lies, and now we face a poisoned country filled with outrage blinding our ability to reach real strength.”

[jackd]

He's probably going to run for governor.

[goldenvalley]

Oct 29, 2021 17:12:54 GMT jackd said:

He's probably going to run for governor.

He's pretty right wing isn't he?  Uber religious etc?   I don't think the tribe is going to support him because he isn't a Trump cultist.  A nice cushy job at a conservative foundation will be more lucrative.

[jackd]

Today he said, "Maybe Senator". Mostly he figured he couldn't beat Lahood into whose district he'd been pushed. Very right wing but, to his credit, not a Trumper.

[LFC]

From the Department of Don't Let the Door Hit You In the Ass...

On the heels of the so-called “audit” of the 2020 election in Maricopa County that elevated her to a level of prominence rarely seen among state legislators, Senate President Karen Fann will retire after next year rather than seek another term in the legislature.

“It has been a privilege to advocate on behalf of Arizona citizens in my twelve years at the State Legislature and the honor of a lifetime to serve as Senate President. I look forward to a successful session in 2022 advancing policies that benefit all Arizonans, and then enjoying the life my husband and I have built for ourselves in retirement with our family,” Fann said in a statement on Monday announcing her retirement.

I guess she'll either crawl into a whole with her shame (HAH!) or is looking to cash in on her faudit by spouting even more lies about our elections (ooooh, yeah).

[pnwguy]

Nov 2, 2021 14:38:51 GMT LFC said:

From the Department of Don't Let the Door Hit You In the Ass...

On the heels of the so-called “audit” of the 2020 election in Maricopa County that elevated her to a level of prominence rarely seen among state legislators, Senate President Karen Fann will retire after next year rather than seek another term in the legislature.

“It has been a privilege to advocate on behalf of Arizona citizens in my twelve years at the State Legislature and the honor of a lifetime to serve as Senate President. I look forward to a successful session in 2022 advancing policies that benefit all Arizonans, and then enjoying the life my husband and I have built for ourselves in retirement with our family,” Fann said in a statement on Monday announcing her retirement.

I guess she'll either crawl into a whole with her shame (HAH!) or is looking to cash in on her faudit by spouting even more lies about our elections (ooooh, yeah).

She is a lock on a cabinet position within the Trump Restoration in 2025 (or sooner if the MAGAt civil war takes place before that)

[AnBr]

The Hill: Carville blames ‘stupid wokeness’ for Democratic losses

Democratic political strategist James Carville blamed his party's recent losses and weak performance in state elections on "stupid wokeness" on Wednesday.

"PBS NewsHour" host Judy Woodruff asked Carville what went wrong for the Democratic Party in the Virginia gubernatorial race in which Republican Glenn Youngkin beat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

"What went wrong is just stupid wokeness. Don't just look at Virginia and New Jersey. Look at Long Island, look at Buffalo, look at Minneapolis, even look at Seattle, Wash. I mean, this 'defund the police' lunacy, this take Abraham Lincoln's name off of schools. I mean that — people see that," Carville said.

"It's just really — has a suppressive effect all across the country on Democrats. Some of these people need to go to a 'woke' detox center or something," he added. "They're expressing a language that people just don't use, and there's backlash and a frustration at that."

...

Carville said that suburbanites in Virginia and New Jersey "pulled away" from such "wokeness." He pointed out that Youngkin never ran any ads against President Biden and suggested that the Republican candidate had simply allowed Democrats to "pull the pin and watch the grenade go off."

Of course with the gerrymandering snubbing suburbanites is even more damaging.

[goldenvalley]

Nov 4, 2021 22:53:00 GMT AnBr said:

The Hill: Carville blames ‘stupid wokeness’ for Democratic losses

Democratic political strategist James Carville blamed his party's recent losses and weak performance in state elections on "stupid wokeness" on Wednesday.

"PBS NewsHour" host Judy Woodruff asked Carville what went wrong for the Democratic Party in the Virginia gubernatorial race in which Republican Glenn Youngkin beat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

"What went wrong is just stupid wokeness. Don't just look at Virginia and New Jersey. Look at Long Island, look at Buffalo, look at Minneapolis, even look at Seattle, Wash. I mean, this 'defund the police' lunacy, this take Abraham Lincoln's name off of schools. I mean that — people see that," Carville said.

"It's just really — has a suppressive effect all across the country on Democrats. Some of these people need to go to a 'woke' detox center or something," he added. "They're expressing a language that people just don't use, and there's backlash and a frustration at that."

...

Carville said that suburbanites in Virginia and New Jersey "pulled away" from such "wokeness." He pointed out that Youngkin never ran any ads against President Biden and suggested that the Republican candidate had simply allowed Democrats to "pull the pin and watch the grenade go off."

Of course with the gerrymandering snubbing suburbanites is even more damaging.

There is some element of truth to this conclusion.  But is it the only one?  Are there no statewide or local issues that the voters hear about or care about or has national media and political parties so nationalized politics that the voters in each state don't care about internal state issues?

[jackd]

There is also the issue of how campaign funds are used. If it's all TV ad buys, probably not very effective. The Stacy Abrams ground game, on the other hand, has worked wonders and doesn't seem to have been used in Tuesday's contests.

[LFC]

Just a little reality check from Josh Marshall in a paywalled piece.

As I wrote Tuesday night, this isn’t a surprising result. The President’s popularity is underwater. Polls say the public sees the country going in the wrong direction – a reality regardless of whether you or I think it is an accurate perception. But let’s also get real: the incumbent President’s party has consistently lost these two governorships every cycle for more than 30 years. The one exception was Terry McAuliffe in 2013. Murphy’s victory in New Jersey sees the first Democrat reelected governor in that state in 44 years.

So what has happened for multiple decades happened and it's proof that the Democrats are in free fall? I'm not saying they can't improve their chances in 2022 but for a media that is ravenous for taking tiny historical data points and extrapolating them forward to show "meaning" this is a pretty big miss.

[Bact PhD]

Florida Man Strikes Again!!

(bold mine)

The winning Republican in this week’s congressional primary in South Florida is a felon who did not go through the state’s process to restore his civil rights after his imprisonment, interviews and records show. That step is required under Florida law for a candidate to hold political office.

Jason Mariner, 36, of Palm Beach Gardens, an advertising executive and self-described “America First” conservative candidate, won Tuesday’s GOP primary with 58 percent of votes in the heavily Democratic 20th congressional district.

[snip]

Mariner had served roughly two years total behind bars over 2007 and 2012 on charges that included felony theft, burglary, cocaine possession, obstruction and violently resisting arrest, records show. He was open during his campaign about his criminal background, telling voters, “Before running for Congress, I ran from the law.” He also promised he will be tough on crime.

Under new clemency rules Gov. Ron DeSantis announced earlier this year, felons are automatically entitled to have their rights restored – including the right to hold political office – but must submit to a formal process administered by the Florida Commission on Offender Review and Office of Executive Clemency. Under a constitutional amendment that Florida voters approved in 2020, felons can register to vote once they serve their prison terms and pay any court fines.

Mariner confirmed Thursday that he did not go through the process to restore his right to hold office. “No, nothing,” he said. He said later he was confident he was a lawful candidate. “No, it’s not going to be an issue,” he said.

"The rules for thee, but not for meee," I guess???

[LFC]

A little good news for the Dems.

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire announced Tuesday that he’d decided not to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) in 2022, a huge break for Democrats in what could have become a potential Republican flip.

“I’d rather push myself 120 miles an hour delivering wins for New Hampshire than to slow down, end up on Capitol Hill debating partisan politics without results,” Sununu said at a live streamed event. “That’s why I’m going to run for a fourth term.”

“Senator Hassan won her last race by 1,017 votes, and we know that no matter who emerges as the Republican nominee this is going to be a hard-fought race,” Hassan campaign manager Aaron Jacobs told TPM. “The senator has shown that she can work across the aisle to get results for Granite Staters — and that is why she has a record of winning tough races. Our campaign is ready for the challenge ahead.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) former campaign manager and chief of staff was aghast.

Apparently there's been real pressure on Sununu to run for the seat.

McConnell personally lobbied Sununu to run after the popular governor cruised to a 30-point victory in 2020 in a state President Joe Biden also won fairly easily. Sununu is the son of a former governor and brother of a former senator, making his a household name in the Granite State.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, reportedly even flew in to fete Sununu personally.

Hassan unseated Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) in 2016 by just over 1,000 votes, making the seat a target.

A possible reprieve in New Hampshire, depending on who else jumps into the race, would be welcome to Democrats who’ll fight tooth and nail to maintain their effective majority in the 50-50 Senate next year.

[LFC]

John Abbott's Trump-Lite(tm) act isn't actually playing that well in Texas, only with the rabid, fascist Republican base. Of course that and a host of voter suppression techniques may be more than enough to win.

[LFC]

The McAuliffe camp did a post-mortem (paywalled).

In an election post-mortem, the Terry McAuliffe gubernatorial campaign in Virginia highlighted some of its findings in the immediate wake of Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory.

Depressed Democratic turnout, the campaign said, wasn’t the problem. The high Democratic numbers simply weren’t enough to counter the Republican surge.

“Turnout was up across the board compared to 2017, with African-American turnout up 116% and Latino turnout up 125%,” the campaign wrote. “In any other off year, seeing African-American turnout increase 116% would be enough to result in a Democratic victory.”

The campaign pointed to August as the moment majorities of voters started to say the country and state were on the wrong track, dragging down Democratic support from late-deciding voters. It also found that COVID-19, the economy and health care — not education, as has often been cited — were the issues consistently on voters’ minds throughout the campaign.

The campaign ultimately fingered two culprits in helping Youngkin juice turnout: intra-Democratic stalemate in D.C. and the Republican’s effective use of the rightwing media machine.

[Traveler]

Actually, it was CRT. And non college educated women. They went 75%! against Dems. Good article in Sunday Inky, but cannot search for it. Very poor website.

[LFC]

Daddies don't let your babies grow up to be fascists.

[LFC]

Marshall says the Dems can't let voters forget who virtually every Republican obeys. Youngkin hid his fealty to Emperor Trump with great skill but most won't be able to. (Paywalled.) Bonus points for TPM's photo selection.

Trump and His Cornfield Still Haunt the GOP


You’ve probably seen reports that House Republicans are now considering stripping committee assignments from the 13 Republican members who voted for the bipartisan Biden infrastructure bill. It’s the latest DC GOP purity test. In a speech Monday at a National Republican Congressional Committee dinner ex-President Trump ripped into the 13 as traitors to the GOP and to him. One of them, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis – the sole Republican from New York City – was there in the crowd appearing “visibly shaken,” according to a source who spoke to The New York Post. It is another reminder that while Republicans have numerous advantages going into 2022, managing the GOP is inherently difficult with ex-President Trump’s ever-changing list of Republicans he wants to wish to the cornfield because they weren’t nice to him.

I find it hard to believe the GOP House conference will strip these members of their committee assignments. They didn’t do that for the even greater betrayal of those members who voted to investigate the January 6th insurrection. But as we’ve seen, a substantial number of those members have already been forced into retirement. You can’t cross Trump in today’s GOP. You can make vague comments. You can sigh a few times. But you can’t cross him. There are very, very few examples of any who have and still have any future in the party.

These are each key tension points that Democrats should be hitting over and over and over during the next twelve months.

Glenn Youngkin’s narrow victory in Virginia had many roots. A critical one, as I’ve noted repeatedly, is that the out party at the presidential level almost always wins the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races. But clearly Youngkin’s ability to not only hold but supercharge the Trump base while also keeping his distance from Trump was the sine qua non factor propelling him to victory. That’s not easy. And we shouldn’t underestimate the prowess of Youngkin and his campaign in pulling it off. But it’s even harder when you’re operating at the federal level. Youngkin didn’t have to make votes on infrastructure or January 6th committees. All these folks do. The key to Republican victory in 2022 is supercharged support from the MAGA base combined with the more passive disenchantment of a slice of the electorate that is downcast over the economy and COVID and not really thinking about Trump even if they don’t like him. The key for Democrats is to make it as hard as possible to straddle that divide.

Trump will give them countless opportunities.

The infrastructure bill is a cudgel that can be used in various ways against House Republicans who voted against it (think Rep. Young Kim in California) and those who voted for (think Rep. Malliotakis in New York).

There’s a precedent for this. Actually there are tons of them. But there’s one that is particularly apt. Republicans stormed back into power in the 2010 midterm. But it took them until 2014 to recapture the Senate. There are a bunch of reasons. But the big one is that in 2010 and to a lesser but still real degree in 2012 they kept nominating nutball candidates. Harry Reid won his last term in the Senate in large part because his campaign helped the GOP along in ditching a more palatable candidate for Tea Party yahoo Sharron Angle, who Reid defeated. Gov. Sununu’s decision not to run – which seems to have caught Republicans completely off guard – appears to be part of a pattern in which top tier GOP recruits are proving hard to convince, in part because being a Trump toady in a party-line vote Senate just doesn’t seem like much fun.

Much remains outside Democrats control. But this isn’t one of them. Democrats – certainly everyone with any responsibility for campaigns – needs to spend the next twelve months working over, irritating, inflaming these fissures.

[LFC]

After Sununu announced he wasn't going to run for Senate another Republican crackpot (there's so many of them) threw a temper tantrum at him. He's a conspiracy theorist and retired brigadier general described as an ally of Michael Flynn's. In other words he's yet another fascist traitor who rose through the ranks of our military. He's that scary mix of being insane and not very bright with delusions of grandeur. He's a perfect fit for the GOP.

We learned earlier this week that New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu would not be running for Senate, despite being lobbied to do so by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC head Rick Scott.

Who will Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan face instead? One option is the conspiracy theorizing retired brigadier general Donald Bolduc, an ally of Michael Flynn in his campaign to paint the 2020 election as rigged.

In a wild radio interview this week, Bolduc took personal credit for Sununu’s decision not to run.

“I derailed governor Sununu from running for Senate,” Bolduc claimed. “Lets face it: The most powerful political family in New Hampshire made a decision not to run against a political outsider.

But things escalated from there. Bolduc was, apparently, annoyed that Sununu had not endorsed his previous, ill-fated bid for Senate. “He abandoned me last election. I’m not looking for his support,” Bolduc griped.

But it wasn’t just personal, he insisted. Bolduc had “political reasons” for disliking Sununu as well. He began to outline them, and it got weird.

“He’s a Chinese communist sympathizer!” Bolduc declared. “He’s in business with Saudi Arabian companies that give money to terrorist organizations.”

“He is?” Heath asked incredulously. “Who is?”

“He’s a globalist world-government guy,” Bolduc continued.

“Who’s in business with Saudi Arabia?” asked Heath.

“So yes, I have political differences with him,” Bolduc concluded.

[LFC]

Retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) is using his war chest to help out his former chief of staff in her bid for his seat and in opposition of Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) who, as we all know, is batshit nuts.

Retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) reportedly plans to spend $5 million of his campaign funds to help his former chief of staff in the GOP primary to replace him, according to the Washington Post.

Shelby’s endorsement of Katie Britt comes after Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL), a booster of Trump’s election fraud falsehoods, was endorsed by Trump.

Federal records indicate that Shelby, who is retiring next year, has $9.7 million in cash in his campaign account and $6.5 million in his leadership PAC. Shelby reportedly plans to allocate $5 million of it to an independent SuperPAC supporting Britt, who previously served on his staff before becoming the CEO of the Business Council of Alabama.

[LFC]

Murkowski is in. The primary (and she's being primaried) will be telling. Is it even possible for a sane Republican to win a statewide election in a very red state? She apparently had a tough time of it already, something I didn't realize.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) announced on Friday morning that she’s running for reelection in the 2022 midterms as her party’s leader goes on a warpath to oust every pro-impeachment Republican lawmaker from Congress.

In her announcement video, Murkowski paints herself as a moderate who can work with Democrats and Republicans alike and calls herself an “independent voice.”

“My heart is, and always has been, in Alaska, and that’s why I am proud to announce my campaign for reelection to the US Senate in 2022,” the GOP senator said in a separate statement. “I pledged to be Alaska, always. I’m still committed to those values and meeting the challenges Alaskans face today.”

Murkowski has stood out in recent years as one of the GOP’s few critics of Donald Trump, especially after voting to convict the then-president in his second impeachment trial for inciting the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. Trump punched back by endorsing Murkowski’s primary challenger, Kelly Tshibaka, though he had sworn revenge against the Alaska senator even before the trial for criticizing him.

The Alaska GOP also punished the senator by censuring her and endorsing her primary challenger.

However, Murkowski has long been at odds with her own party, dating back to 2010, when she lost to a primary challenger, Joe Miller, and then defeated him in the general election — as a write-in candidate.

[pnwguy]

Today’s Lunch with Lincoln reinforces our dilemma. The coup has been building for decades.  The GOP has a 20 year head start on shutting down democracy in America.