Coronavirus, Monkeypox, and Other Contagious Diseases

[indy]

By Wednesday afternoon, everyone in the house will have had both shots.

Will actually being playing in a live chess tournament two weeks after, the first group gathering of any kind I will have participated in for over a year.

[andydp]

May 10, 2021 12:04:27 GMT indy said:

By Wednesday afternoon, everyone in the house will have had both shots.

Will actually being playing in a live chess tournament two weeks after, the first group gathering of any kind I will have participated in for over a year.

Now we know

EVEN CHESS LEAGUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERFORMANCE-ENHANCING DRUGS


www.inverse.com/article/27054-chess-performance-enhancing-drugs-doping-vassily-ivanchuk

Are you required to do a "test" of some sort prior to the match ?

[indy]

May 10, 2021 12:22:36 GMT andydp said:

May 10, 2021 12:04:27 GMT indy said:

By Wednesday afternoon, everyone in the house will have had both shots.

Will actually being playing in a live chess tournament two weeks after, the first group gathering of any kind I will have participated in for over a year.

Now we know

EVEN CHESS LEAGUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERFORMANCE-ENHANCING DRUGS


www.inverse.com/article/27054-chess-performance-enhancing-drugs-doping-vassily-ivanchuk

Are you required to do a "test" of some sort prior to the match ?

Uh, no. There is little money at stake at the level I play. In fact, I'll make more money playing poker in a couple of off hours when I'm not playing chess than I would if I could win the entire chess tournament. And to be clear, I'll never win a chess tournament, since pre-teens beat me pretty regularly. I might as well set the entrance fee on fire. It's a humbling game for someone who took it up pretty late in life. My older son, who is 22, is pretty good, 2200+ rating, but even he took it up too late. He plans on turning it into a side-gig as a teacher. I go mostly just to keep him company, not that I have any real ambitions of my own.

[Traveler]

From the Quora Coronavirus thread.  

VERY INTERESTING article on the lab escape hypothesis. 

In conclusion. If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As may now be obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it. The list is led, of course, by the Chinese authorities. But virologists in the United States and Europe have no great interest in igniting a public debate about the gain-of-function experiments that their community has been pursuing for years.['...]
The US government shares a strange common interest with the Chinese authorities: Neither is keen on drawing attention to the fact that Shi’s coronavirus work was funded by the US National Institutes of Health. One can imagine the behind-the-scenes conversation in which the Chinese government says, “If this research was so dangerous, why did you fund it, and on our territory too?” To which the US side might reply, “Looks like it was you who let it escape. But do we really need to have this discussion in public?”

It still beggars belief.  But it does comport with the facts as they present them.   TL, just cut to the chase.  Interesting to hear others' thoughts.  

[Bact PhD]

May 10, 2021 18:54:05 GMT Traveler said:

From the Quora Coronavirus thread.  

VERY INTERESTING article on the lab escape hypothesis. 

In conclusion. If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As may now be obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it. The list is led, of course, by the Chinese authorities. But virologists in the United States and Europe have no great interest in igniting a public debate about the gain-of-function experiments that their community has been pursuing for years.['...]
The US government shares a strange common interest with the Chinese authorities: Neither is keen on drawing attention to the fact that Shi’s coronavirus work was funded by the US National Institutes of Health. One can imagine the behind-the-scenes conversation in which the Chinese government says, “If this research was so dangerous, why did you fund it, and on our territory too?” To which the US side might reply, “Looks like it was you who let it escape. But do we really need to have this discussion in public?”

It still beggars belief.  But it does comport with the facts as they present them.   TL, just cut to the chase.  Interesting to hear others' thoughts.  

I'm about halfway through the article, and my reaction:

YIKES!

This is some pretty damning stuff. This isn't intended to be complete, but merely based on what I've read so far.

Damning #1: Interview with Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York, on December 9, 2019, weeks before COVID hit Western news media:

“And we have now found, you know, after 6 or 7 years of doing this, over 100 new SARS-related coronaviruses, very close to SARS,” Daszak says around minute 28 of the interview. “Some of them get into human cells in the lab, some of them can cause SARS disease in humanized mice models and are untreatable with therapeutic monoclonals and you can’t vaccinate against them with a vaccine. So, these are a clear and present danger….

“Interviewer: You say these are diverse coronaviruses and you can’t vaccinate against them, and no anti-virals — so what do we do?

“Daszak: Well I think…coronaviruses — you can manipulate them in the lab pretty easily. Spike protein drives a lot of what happen with coronavirus, in zoonotic risk. So you can get the sequence, you can build the protein, and we work a lot with Ralph Baric at UNC to do this. Insert into the backbone of another virus and do some work in the lab. So you can get more predictive when you find a sequence. You’ve got this diversity. Now the logical progression for vaccines is, if you are going to develop a vaccine for SARS, people are going to use pandemic SARS, but let’s insert some of these other things and get a better vaccine.” The insertions he referred to perhaps included an element called the furin cleavage site, discussed below, which greatly increases viral infectivity for human cells.

In disjointed style, Daszak is referring to the fact that once you have generated a novel coronavirus that can attack human cells, you can take the spike protein and make it the basis for a vaccine.

All well and good in theory, as long as the lab safety procedures are up to snuff. Oh, wait...

(Damning #2; bold mine)

The real problem, however, was not the unsafe state of the Wuhan BSL4 lab but the fact that virologists worldwide don’t like working in BSL4 conditions. You have to wear a space suit, do operations in closed cabinets, and accept that everything will take twice as long. So the rules assigning each kind of virus to a given safety level were laxer than some might think was prudent.

Before 2020, the rules followed by virologists in China and elsewhere required that experiments with the SARS1 and MERS viruses be conducted in BSL3 conditions. But all other bat coronaviruses could be studied in BSL2, the next level down. BSL2 requires taking fairly minimal safety precautions, such as wearing lab coats and gloves, not sucking up liquids in a pipette, and putting up biohazard warning signs. Yet a gain-of-function experiment conducted in BSL2 might produce an agent more infectious than either SARS1 or MERS. And if it did, then lab workers would stand a high chance of infection, especially if unvaccinated.

Much of Shi’s work on gain-of-function in coronaviruses was performed at the BSL2 safety level, as is stated in her publications and other documents. She has said in an interview with Science magazine that “[t]he coronavirus research in our laboratory is conducted in BSL-2 or BSL-3 laboratories.”

“It is clear that some or all of this work was being performed using a biosafety standard — biosafety level 2, the biosafety level of a standard US dentist’s office — that would pose an unacceptably high risk of infection of laboratory staff upon contact with a virus having the transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2,” Ebright says.

This really jumped out at me, having "been there, done that" with BSL-3 work (back when I was a post-doc; my Ph.D. lab work was in BSL-2; BSL-4 is for stuff like Ebola). Gain-of-function studies with "first cousins" of viruses like SARS1 and MERS...in BSL-2?!? WTF?!?? Can you say "recipe for disaster"?!??

Damning #3: I won't quote the passage in its lengthy entirety (excerpts wouldn't make much sense), but the furin cleavage site and how it might have entered the genome is...interesting.

To be continued...

[goldenvalley]

I'm glad we have our very own expert to give context and help with interpretation. Thank you BactPhD

[Traveler]

Thanks for the quick take Bact. I knew we could count on you to distill this rather formidable article. Looks like a real clusterfuck actually did happen. I had no idea BSL2 was that lax. I mean, essentially no precautions against escape. Check the numbered conclusion no. 4:

The responsibility of the NIAID and NIH is even more acute because for the first three years of the grant to EcoHealth Alliance, there was a moratorium on funding gain-of-function research. Why didn’t the two agencies therefore halt the federal funding, as apparently required to do so by law? Because someone wrote a loophole into the moratorium.

The moratorium specifically barred funding any gain-of-function research that increased the pathogenicity of the flu, MERS, or SARS viruses. But then a footnote on page 2 of the moratorium document states that “an exception from the research pause may be obtained if the head of the USG funding agency determines that the research is urgently necessary to protect the public health or national security.”

This seems to mean that either the director of the NIAID, Anthony Fauci, or the director of the NIH, Francis Collins, or maybe both, would have invoked the footnote in order to keep the money flowing to Shi’s gain-of-function research.

“Unfortunately, the NIAID director and the NIH director exploited this loophole to issue exemptions to projects subject to the Pause—preposterously asserting the exempted research was ‘urgently necessary to protect public health or national security’ — thereby nullifying the Pause,” Ebright said in an interview with Independent Science News.

[LFC]

This seems to mean that either the director of the NIAID, Anthony Fauci, or the director of the NIH, Francis Collins, or maybe both, would have invoked the footnote in order to keep the money flowing to Shi’s gain-of-function research.

Without a compelling reason being presented I'd first if there was a classic big organization failure like reports not being flagged or just not being filed without pushback. In sort of a corollary to the famous "never attribute to malice..." quote I'd add "bureaucracy." To be blunt I find this more frightening than an intentional override because it means few people actually know what's going on. If we take the set of all of the labs in the world that are handling potentially dangerous bugs how many are really following the protocols they should be? If it's even just 10% that are failing to do so (which I'd assume was low when looking at human nature) it gets real scary real quick.

[LFC]

A group studied the data and on average Republican governors killed more of their people per capita than Democratic governors. Welcome to Republican "governance." Interesting to see how Florida failed to get the benefit during the time period where they actually had more protective policies in place.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, a partisan divide has existed over the appropriate government response to the public health crisis. Democrats have been more likely to favor stricter policies such as prolonged economic shutdowns, limits on gathering in groups and mask mandates. Republicans overall have favored less stringent policies.

As political scientists and public health scholars, we’ve been studying political responses to the pandemic and their impacts. In research published in the summer of 2020, we found that “sub-governments,” which in the U.S. means state governments, tended to have a bigger impact on the direction of pandemic policies than the federal government. Now, as data on last year’s case and death rates emerge, we’re looking at whether the political party in the governor’s office became a good predictor of public health outcomes as COVID-19 moved across the country.

Looking at states’ COVID-19 case and death rates, researchers are finding the more stringent policies typical of Democratic governors led to lower rates of infections and deaths, compared to the the pandemic responses of the average Republican governor. In preparation for future pandemics, it may be worth considering how to address the impact that a state government’s partisan leanings can have on the scope and severity of a public health crises.

[Bact PhD]

May 12, 2021 21:10:04 GMT LFC said:

A group studied the data and on average Republican governors killed more of their people per capita than Democratic governors. Welcome to Republican "governance." Interesting to see how Florida failed to get the benefit during the time period where they actually had more protective policies in place.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, a partisan divide has existed over the appropriate government response to the public health crisis. Democrats have been more likely to favor stricter policies such as prolonged economic shutdowns, limits on gathering in groups and mask mandates. Republicans overall have favored less stringent policies.

As political scientists and public health scholars, we’ve been studying political responses to the pandemic and their impacts. In research published in the summer of 2020, we found that “sub-governments,” which in the U.S. means state governments, tended to have a bigger impact on the direction of pandemic policies than the federal government. Now, as data on last year’s case and death rates emerge, we’re looking at whether the political party in the governor’s office became a good predictor of public health outcomes as COVID-19 moved across the country.

Looking at states’ COVID-19 case and death rates, researchers are finding the more stringent policies typical of Democratic governors led to lower rates of infections and deaths, compared to the the pandemic responses of the average Republican governor. In preparation for future pandemics, it may be worth considering how to address the impact that a state government’s partisan leanings can have on the scope and severity of a public health crises.

I'm not sure where on Earth the authors of this piece got the notion that Flori-DUH had "more protective" policies in place. We NEVER had a statewide mask mandate (and as time went by, DeMinimis actively curtailed the ability of local governments to keep them imposed), and re-opening got rocking and rolling fairly early in the going (May-June). Moreover, we had the spring breakers in our midst just as the pandemic was getting going, but before the shutdowns actually took effect.

I fully expect DeMinimis to win re-election next year.

[goldenvalley]

I heard Michael Lewis interviewed about his new book The Premonition.  Here's the NYT review of it.  Lewis says the problem aside from Trump and the politicization of the pandemic is the CDC and public health in general.  It's not set up to handle a pandemic.  It seems like the Control part of the title is not really operative.  

[Deleted]

Michael Lewis has a new book out? Ok time to hop over to Kindle.

[goldenvalley]

Ohio is using the COVID relief money.

 Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine on Wednesday announced a novel incentive program for people in his state to get vaccinated — a $1 million lottery.

DeWine, a Republican, said only people who've gotten the vaccine will be eligible to win the prize, which will be paid for by federal coronavirus funds.

"Two weeks from tonight on May 26th, we will announce a winner of a separate drawing for adults who have received at least their first dose of the vaccine. This announcement will occur each Wednesday for five weeks, and the winner each Wednesday will receive one million dollars,"DeWine said in a series of tweets.

"To be eligible to win, you must be at least 18 years of age or older on the day of the drawing. You must be an Ohio resident. And, you must be vaccinated before the drawing," he added.

I'd rather get a beer for a shot.  I never win with gambling.

[jackd]

Yes, a shot and a beer is traditional.

[beelzebuddy]

[Bact PhD]

May 13, 2021 18:05:03 GMT beelzebuddy said:

Saw stories in WaPo & WSJ as well.
Woo-hoo!!!

Tempered, however, with the knowledge that an awful lot of unvaccinated (and vaccine-resistant) adults still move among us and have also been the predominant anti-maskers from the get-go…

[Deleted]

May 13, 2021 18:22:20 GMT Bact PhD said:

May 13, 2021 18:05:03 GMT beelzebuddy said:

Saw stories in WaPo & WSJ as well.
Woo-hoo!!!

Tempered, however, with the knowledge that an awful lot of unvaccinated (and vaccine-resistant) adults still move among us and have also been the predominant anti-maskers from the get-go…

1. There are no good credentialing (worth that word) implemented to differentiate between vaccinated and unvaccinated.

2. Credential verification is verboten. 

3. Vaccinated and unvaccinated will co-mingle in indoor settings without masks.

4. CDC must believe the risk to the vaccinated from the unvaccinated must be extremely low, otherwise it would not be releasing such guidance.

5. Which means, CDC must have reached a point of frustration with the unvaccinated such that they are thinking "Wanna gamble, motherfuckers?" 

[jackd]

Herd immunity one way or the other. too bad if infection spoils your day (or your life.).

[Traveler]

An interesting article on the inertia and groupthink of supposed scientists, and how it resulted in a lot of needless cases in the first wave.

[LFC]

Delta Airlines is hiring, but only if you're vaccinated.

If you want a job with Delta Air Lines, you better sign up for a COVID-19 vaccine. The CEO, Ed Bastian, told CNN that in addition to encouraging existing employees to get vaccinated, it’s decided to impose a mandate for new employees—one of the biggest companies to do so. Bastian also said that current employees who decide against the vaccine might find their wings clipped; they might not be able to work on international flights, for instance. Just 60 percent of the airline’s 75,000 employees have had at least one shot, but Delta has created its own clinic and is administering 5,000 jabs a day to workers and their families.

[Deleted]

May 14, 2021 15:54:03 GMT LFC said:

Delta Airlines is hiring, but only if you're vaccinated.

If you want a job with Delta Air Lines, you better sign up for a COVID-19 vaccine. The CEO, Ed Bastian, told CNN that in addition to encouraging existing employees to get vaccinated, it’s decided to impose a mandate for new employees—one of the biggest companies to do so. Bastian also said that current employees who decide against the vaccine might find their wings clipped; they might not be able to work on international flights, for instance. Just 60 percent of the airline’s 75,000 employees have had at least one shot, but Delta has created its own clinic and is administering 5,000 jabs a day to workers and their families.

I almost exclusively fly on Delta Airlines. I like this.

[pnwguy]

May 14, 2021 15:57:11 GMT @probabilistic3 said:

May 14, 2021 15:54:03 GMT LFC said:

I almost exclusively fly on Delta Airlines. I like this.

I used to, until they cancelled their agreements with Alaska Airlines, the largest carrier out of PDX and SEA.  I'm still a million miler (from my Northwest Airlines days), so I will always remain Silver Medallion when I do fly them.  But yes, I think it's smart.

I expect all other carriers to declare the same thing, unless the F/A union starts to object.  But I think those requirements were always there for other immunizations for international staff, since they have to honor the requirements of countries they fly into.

[beelzebuddy]

[andydp]

May 14, 2021 19:51:09 GMT beelzebuddy said:

just got to Denver last night.

Everyone was masked, no one made a fuss. (I suppose fines and jail are stopping that thought)

Airports were masked. Some were mask less outside of the terminal.

I’m still wearing mine going into stores. Went shopping in Golden, all stores required masks.

[LFC]

TPM  has a piece (paywalled) on vaccination rates by state called Two COVID Americas. The line is pretty much where you expect it to be.

COVID vaccination, for all the slowdown, remains fast moving across the United States. It seems likely we’ll see a brief surge in shots as parents bring their 12-15 year olds in for their shots. But we’re already seeing the emergence of what in the later months of 2021 is like to be two separate Americas as defined by COVID.

This is a map from the CDC vaccine data portal.



Click here and scroll down to see an interactive version the map.

It shows doses per 100k residents. Precisely how this factors out in vaccinated people is a touch blurry since the great majority of vaccinations are two-shot course. States range from just over 50,000 to just over 100,000 doses per resident.

What jumps out first is how tightly the vaccination data maps to the country’s political geography. It’s not a perfect match. Generally Democratic Nevada is relatively low at ~73k doses per 100k and the Dakotas are better vaccinated than similarly Republican states. But by and large the line is pretty complete.

We shouldn’t assume this is all politicized vaccine resistance. Deep South states generally have poorer health in general than other parts of the country. So some of it is likely more tenuous public health infrastructure. But it seems clear that the driving factor is ideology and partisan identity.

Alabama and Mississippi both have under 60k doses per 100k residents. If you look across the rest of that Deep South swath of states only the Carolinas are significantly about ~65k. The difference between Georgia at 65,973 doses and Pennsylvania at 88,758 or New York at 90,637 isn’t that vast. It could be made up pretty quickly if Georgia picked up the pace. The real question is whether these Southern tier states and the group in the Intermountain West have already hit a wall of vaccine resistance.