jackd
Assistant Professor
Posts: 813
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Post by jackd on Jun 15, 2022 21:21:51 GMT
There is a 5/11 Phillips Academy Poll of registered voters showing DiSantis 35.5%; Crist 34.8%, and 29.7% undecided
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Post by Bact PhD on Jun 15, 2022 21:41:59 GMT
There is a 5/11 Phillips Academy Poll of registered voters showing DiSantis 35.5%; Crist 34.8%, and 29.7% undecided Thanks for the lead. A search for Phillips Academy poll pulled up a Twitter post linking to this Newsweek article from a couple of weeks ago: www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-beating-ron-desantis-midterm-according-polls-1710876Hm. Most of the polls RCP cites are from well before the Disney dust up. It’s hard to tell whether the PA poll is indicative of a shift, or merely an outlier. |
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Jun 16, 2022 0:52:43 GMT
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Post by Bact PhD on Jun 16, 2022 13:10:29 GMT
I’m keeping the salt shaker handy. That last poll 538 cites, The Political Matrix, seems to skew a bit leftward. Their February one showed Crist up 57/44, whereas UNF and St. Leo Universities’ polls from the same time frame have Supreme Emperor up 55/34 and 49/33, respectively. If either of those other 2 pollsters, or one of the major players, were to show Crist within low single digits of Supreme Emperor, I will get more optimistic. |
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Post by indy on Jun 16, 2022 13:35:56 GMT
First point I would make is that it is way too early to take polls seriously because poll errors are significant this far out from an election. September is absolutely the earliest date I start paying any attention to them.
Second point I'd make is that I think polls are systematically off right now and pollsters are trying to figure out how to adjust. Polls last cycle had, for example, Biden winning Wisconsin by like 8% and he won by < 1%. Collins was going to lose by 2%; she won by 11%. My theory on this is that people who don't trust media, and by and large have views they'd rather not reveal because...well, they aren't popular views...are not responding to polls. Those people are voting Republican. So even if polls showed Crist with a 2% lead the day before the election, I wouldn't believe them for a second.
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Jun 16, 2022 20:52:04 GMT
I would hope that the pollsters have finally adjusted to the fact that many simply no longer have land lines. Add in that most people may not answer calls from unknown numbers because of the high likelihood that they will be spam.
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Post by Bact PhD on Jun 16, 2022 20:59:56 GMT
I would hope that the pollsters have finally adjusted to the fact that many simply no longer have land lines. One would hope, but somehow I doubt it. |
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Post by goldenvalley on Jun 16, 2022 22:45:17 GMT
I would hope that the pollsters have finally adjusted to the fact that many simply no longer have land lines. One would hope, but somehow I doubt it. Because cell phone numbers are portable it's hard for pollsters to figure out where the person holding the number actually lives. Once we're all microchipped that won't be a problem anymore.  |
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Jun 16, 2022 23:27:17 GMT
One would hope, but somehow I doubt it. Because cell phone numbers are portable it's hard for pollsters to figure out where the person holding the number actually lives. Once we're all microchipped that won't be a problem anymore.  Better break out the dewormer, then. |
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Post by LFC on Sept 19, 2022 17:22:27 GMT
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 19, 2022 18:33:05 GMT
And he's right about that. He can't turn himself into a lame duck even if he has no intention of ever running. |
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Post by LFC on Sept 28, 2022 14:30:29 GMT
Trump is whining because DeSatanist is stealing his thunder. Polls show him leading Trump in Florida and that's gotta' be winding up some serious Trumper Tantrums. Bold of bonus gag inducing faux concern from Jared.
What higher road would that be, Kushy? Ripping children away from their parents' arms, forcing them to live separately, and then screwing up the records so bad that they can't be reconciled? Because that's the "high road" I remember.
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Sept 28, 2022 14:50:51 GMT
Has the ketchup been hitting the walls?
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Post by LFC on Nov 6, 2022 17:14:11 GMT
'Murica, the best superpower money can buy.
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Post by goldenvalley on Nov 7, 2022 1:08:39 GMT
I recall the book House of Bush, House of Saud being published back in 2004. There was some entanglement of Bush the Elder with the Carlyle Group which did a lot of business in military contracting with Saudi Arabia. Yeah, those were the days. Now we've had Trump touching the magic sphere and Jared Kushner reaping the rewards of some sort of involvement with the current Saudi ruler.
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Post by goldenvalley on Nov 8, 2022 1:24:53 GMT
Apparently there is a fear that such an announcement would motivate Democrats to flock to the polls tomorrow...as if the certainty that Trump will announce isn't enough to send Democrats to the polls. It seems that Trump believes the mere announcement will inoculate him against prosecution. I do hope the DOJ doesn't allow the fear of appearing "partisan" to stop them from getting to a grand jury. |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 8, 2022 13:10:34 GMT
Just my opinion: I doubt Pres Trump will announce a candidacy any time soon. As long as he isn't a candidate, he can do what he wants with the money he gets from friends and the fleeced. (Someone pointed out his donation site says the money will not be for election purposes. I.E. Spend it to fix the trump Plane) Once he declares, election laws ** step in. ** Laws: only written for PNT (People NOT Trump) |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 16, 2022 13:28:23 GMT
This popped up in our daily Op ed page. Not sure what planet this person was on during the Trump Administration, but I doubt it was this one Why Trump should not run againBased on his record in office, Trump should be considered one of the greatest conservative presidents in modern times. The Abraham Accords are worthy of a Nobel Prize. Operation Warp Speed is the greatest public health achievement in human history. Trump made the United States an energy superpower and drove the Islamic State from its caliphate. He has a perfect record in appointing judicial conservatives to the Supreme Court. More apologias at link. digital.olivesoftware.com/olive/odn/albanytimesunion/default.aspx |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 16, 2022 13:34:55 GMT
Fortunately, this happened at the networks last night: Broadcast Nets Not Clamoring To Carry 'Big' Trump AnnouncementIt doesn't look like former president Donald Trump will be getting much broadcast primetime coverage for his "big announcement" Tuesday night (November 15), which is widely expected to be his decision to enter the 2024 presidential race. That announcement is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET from Trump's Mar-A-Lago resort. ABC News was not commenting, but according to someone familiar with its plans those did not include live coverage of the announcement that would preempt any of the second hour of Bachelor in Paradise.**
www.nexttv.com/news/broadcast-nets-not-clamoring-to-carry-big-trump-announcement
** I may start watching if only to thank the network |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 16, 2022 13:37:10 GMT
Then we have this choice:  |
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Post by LFC on Nov 16, 2022 14:39:48 GMT
Blocked from the link but there's some Grade-A bullshit in the part you quoted. Based on his record in office, Trump should be considered one of the greatest conservative presidents in modern times. The Abraham Accords are worthy of a Nobel Prize. Operation Warp Speed is the greatest public health achievement in human history. Trump made the United States an energy superpower and drove the Islamic State from its caliphate. He has a perfect record in appointing judicial conservatives to the Supreme Court. The worst is Operation Warp Speed. Pfizer saw the gov't meddling as so bad they refused the money. And of course we know how well the Trump Administration handled the pandemic. This writer puts the "sick" in "sickophant!" |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 16, 2022 15:16:44 GMT
Blocked from the link but there's some Grade-A bullshit in the part you quoted. Based on his record in office, Trump should be considered one of the greatest conservative presidents in modern times. The Abraham Accords are worthy of a Nobel Prize. Operation Warp Speed is the greatest public health achievement in human history. Trump made the United States an energy superpower and drove the Islamic State from its caliphate. He has a perfect record in appointing judicial conservatives to the Supreme Court. The worst is Operation Warp Speed. Pfizer saw the gov't meddling as so bad they refused the money. And of course we know how well the Trump Administration handled the pandemic. This writer puts the "sick" in "sickophant!" Full article. Note the italicized paragraphs: a "blinding flash of the obvious." Why Trump should not run againBy Marc A. Thiessen Donald Trump appears to be surrounded by a band of enablers who refuse to tell him things he doesn’t want to hear, so I will: Mr. President, it is not in your interest to run in 2024. If you do, you will likely lose. And you will destroy what remains of your legacy in the process. Please, don’t do it. Based on his record in office, Trump should be considered one of the greatest conservative presidents in modern times. The Abraham Accords are worthy of a Nobel Prize. Operation Warp Speed is the greatest public health achievement in human history. Trump made the United States an energy superpower and drove the Islamic State from its caliphate. He has a perfect record in appointing judicial conservatives to the Supreme Court. But another presidential run will obliterate what’s left of that legacy. After the 2020 election, I wrote that he should pursue his legal challenges but that if the courts rejected them (which they did), he should graciously concede, focus on saving the Senate majority in Georgia’s runoff, preside over a smooth transition, attend Joe Biden’s inauguration and prepare to reclaim the presidency in four years. Instead, he embraced election denial and surrounded himself with a clown show of legal advisers who convinced him he could hold onto office. Trump’s failure to accept the election results meant he never understood why he lost: Instead of expanding his coalition by winning over Americans who had not voted for him the first time, he alienated millions who approved of his policies but not of him. In September 2020, a record 56 percent of registered voters told Gallup that they were better off under Trump than they had been four years earlier — a remarkable share amid the worst pandemic since 1918, the worst racial unrest since the 1960s and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. But 56 percent of Americans didn’t vote for Trump; if they had, he would still be president. And his conduct after the election only served to confirm their judgment. Last Tuesday, voters made clear that their judgment still stands. Despite the disasters President Joe Biden has unleashed, they rejected Trump’s handpicked candidates — his proxies on the ballot — and gave Democrats back their Senate majority. That should be a wakeup call for Trump. He cannot win the presidency with his base alone. Now, he is alienating his base by attacking Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. When Trump attacked Jeb Bush or Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., MAGA-world loved it. But MAGA voters also love DeSantis and don’t understand why Trump is going after him. DeSantis delivered the only bright spot on an otherwise dark election night. The smart move for Trump would have been to endorse DeSantis, campaign for him and claim some share of credit for his victory. Instead, Trump devised a weak nickname and an even weaker attack — which has backfired. Even before the midterms, DeSantis was leading Trump by eight points in a hypothetical Florida primary. Now, a YouGov poll shows him leading Trump by seven points nationally among Republican voters. The share of Republicans favoring Trump in 2024 has declined precipitously — from 78 percent in October 2021 to just 35 percent this month. Trump is surrounded by a cabal of grifters who do not have his best interests at heart — sycophants who see him as their meal ticket and a 2024 campaign as a chance to vacuum up millions of dollars, win or lose. They won’t give him hard advice because they don’t care about him — they just want his money.
If they cared, they would tell him the truth — that it’s time to pass the torch. They would have told him to spend some of the $161 million he raised through Sept. 30 on the candidates he endorsed, rather than hoarding it for an ill-begotten 2024 run.Instead of announcing a presidential campaign Tuesday night, Trump should announce he is going all in for Herschel Walker with a massive cash infusion for the Georgia Senate runoff. He should mend fences with DeSantis and stand aside. I say all this in sadness, not anger. I will always defend Trump’s accomplishments in office. But his conduct since losing office has made him unelectable. He promised we’d win so much, we’d be sick of winning. Well, right now, conservatives are sick of losing. Democrats have won the past two elections running against Trump. If he runs again, they will win a third. That would do irrevocable harm to both the country and Trump’s legacy. He can go to his grave claiming that the 2020 election was stolen, and many will believe it. But if he loses the 2024 election — or, worse, the GOP primaries — he will go down in history as a loser. So, Mr. President: For the sake of your reputation and the good of the country, if you want to Make America Great Again — please, stand down. ▶› Marc A. Thiessen writes for The Washington Post. |
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Post by LFC on Nov 16, 2022 15:32:47 GMT
Marc Thiessen. That's all you need to know.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 16, 2022 15:48:38 GMT
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Post by LFC on Nov 16, 2022 18:25:41 GMT
Trapped with Trump. What a perfect metaphor for the spineless Republicans who don't really believe all the nonsense being sewage spilled by their party but are too cowardly to do anything but remain in a defensive crouch.
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