Ukraine

[andydp]

[indy]

[andydp]

More bridge destruction.  Very short article and little detail.  Does not say if it was a pontoon bridge.  Of note: The UKR Air Force did the attack, once again showing the Russian AF is basically non existent.

Ukraine Strikes Bridge to Repel Russian Forces


Ukraine’s Air Force said late Sunday that it struck a bridge in central-eastern Ukraine to prevent Russian forces from crossing the Inhulets river.


www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-05-16/card/ukraine-strikes-bridge-to-repel-russian-forces-OH3txn3usx3Ccw4QtNO1

[LFC]

Here's a good analysis of the current state of play. It's a time filled with possibilities depending upon who does what, when, and how competently. (Russia has been failing badly on that last one.) Russia may quickly be losing offensive capability.

5/ Despite the Russians recently reorienting their operational design on eastern Ukraine as its main effort, they have yet to make significant gains. Indeed, they have been fought to a near standstill by the Ukrainians.

6/ Not only are the Russians in trouble in the east, but the entire Russian campaign in Ukraine is also close to culminating. I would highlight – this is not the same as a Russian defeat. It just means that Russia may shortly be unable to conduct offensive operations.

7/ Russia, theoretically, might construct some last gasp offensive out of Crimea or elsewhere in the south. But this would be akin to the WW2 German Ardennes Offensive – tactically dangerous for a short time but ultimately operationally and strategically futile.

And it could all just end up in a big, ugly stalemate.

15/ Of course, Ukrainian success in any offensive is not guaranteed. Operational outcomes range from a Russian collapse followed by withdrawal; they fight each other to a standstill, followed by stalemate; or, potentially, a Ukrainian defeat. In war there are no certainties.

16/ Summarising, Ukraine doesn’t have a lot of time to assemble the forces & support if they are to conduct another counter offensive in the east. They have to strike before the Russians shift to a defensive posture. The Russians will be much harder to push back if that occurs.

[LFC]

Russia meant to divide the Ukrainian troops from their supplies. They may end up being in that very boat instead.

[LFC]

When even your cheerleaders start saying you suck, you know that you're aren't playing a great game/season.

The destruction wreaked on a Russian battalion as it tried to cross a river in northeastern Ukraine last week is emerging as among the deadliest engagements of the war, with estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggesting that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded.

And as the scale of what happened comes into sharper focus, the disaster appears to be breaking through the Kremlin’s tightly controlled information bubble.

Perhaps most striking, the Russian battlefield failure is resonating with a stable of pro-Russian war bloggers — some of whom are embedded with troops on the front line — who have reliably posted to the social network Telegram with claims of Russian success and Ukrainian cowardice.

“I’ve been keeping quiet for a long time,” Yuri Podolyaka, a war blogger with 2.1 million followers on Telegram, said in a video posted on Friday, saying that he had avoided criticizing the Russian military until now.

“The last straw that overwhelmed my patience was the events around Bilohorivka, where due to stupidity — I emphasize, because of the stupidity of the Russian command — at least one battalion tactical group was burned, possibly two.”

Mr. Podolyaka ridiculed the Kremlin line that the war is going “according to plan.” He told his viewers in a five-minute video that, in fact, the Russian Army was short of functional unmanned drones, night-vision equipment and other kit “that is catastrophically lacking on the front.”

“Yes, I understand that it’s impossible for there to be no problems in war,” he said. “But when the same problems go on for three months, and nothing seems to be changing, then I personally and in fact millions of citizens of the Russian Federation start to have questions for these leaders of the military operation.”

Another popular blogger, who goes by Starshe Eddy on Telegram, wrote that the fact that commanders left so much of their force exposed amounted to “not idiocy, but direct sabotage.”

And a third, Vladlen Tatarski, posted that Russia’s eastern offensive was moving slowly not just because of a lack of surveillance drones but also “these generals” and their tactics.

“Until we get the last name of the military genius who laid down a B.T.G. by the river and he answers for it publicly, we won’t have had any military reforms,” Mr. Tatarski wrote.

[LFC]

Damn, Putin is virtually "all in" on Ukraine already. There is hardly anybody left to send. And if it's true, as discussed here, that many of these units are likely staffed, equipped, and functioning well below peak levels tehn it's worse than it looks in the high-level numbers. On top of that Andy's last post notes that the Russian military is using semiconductors from consumer electronics to keep equipment and systems functioning.

All that's left to do is conscript a bunch of fresh troops with no experience. Even he does that how will they be equipped? How will they be moved on the battlefield? How will they be supported when they come under fire? Putin bought his own propaganda and is now just trying to save himself from humiliation.

[goldenvalley]

May 16, 2022 21:40:43 GMT LFC said:

Damn, Putin is virtually "all in" on Ukraine already. There is hardly anybody left to send. And if it's true, as discussed here, that many of these units are likely staffed, equipped, and functioning well below peak levels tehn it's worse than it looks in the high-level numbers. On top of that Andy's last post notes that the Russian military is using semiconductors from consumer electronics to keep equipment and systems functioning.

All that's left to do is conscript a bunch of fresh troops with no experience. Even he does that how will they be equipped? How will they be moved on the battlefield? How will they be supported when they come under fire? Putin bought his own propaganda and is now just trying to save himself from humiliation.

How many mercenaries are around? As long as the money comes in they'll stick around to kill a bunch of people.

[LFC]

May 16, 2022 21:50:03 GMT goldenvalley said:

How many mercenaries are around? As long as the money comes in they'll stick around to kill a bunch of people.

I remember reading, probably here, that the ones from Chechnya were pissed off because they were being slaughtered. When your command and communications structures suck, and is receiving a steady stream of more advanced weapons than you have, the risk / reward ratio starts to slide.

[LFC]

A light day in news but there are a few interesting things in this report. First, Russia is actually playing defense near Kharkiv to protect the city of Belgorod in Russia.

Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16. The Russian grouping around Kharkiv City is notably trying to hold the border and prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing further north. This activity is different from previous Russian withdrawals from around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy earlier in the war when the Russians pulled completely back to Russian territory. Russian troops may seek to retain positions in Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod, a major city in Russia and a key hub of the Russian military effort. The Russians might alternatively hope to conduct a counter-counter-offensive to push back south toward Kharkiv, although such an effort is highly unlikely to succeed.

The corruption angle comes up again.

Frictions between Russian occupation administrations and pro-Russian collaborators is growing in occupied areas of Ukraine. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces are having serious conflicts with collaborators due to interpersonal power conflicts.[4] A well-known collaborator in Zaporizhia accused the Russian-installed governor of the area of stealing his 10,000 ruble compensation. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryshchenko additionally claimed that relatives of those mobilized into the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are holding a mass protest against mobilization in Donetsk City. While ISW cannot independently verify these claims, such discontent amongst occupation elements suggests a general lack of planning by Russian authorities in occupied areas, now compounded by increasingly evident Russian losses.

And Ukrainian troops have reached the Russian border.

Ukrainian forces reached the Russian border north of Kharkiv City.

[LFC]

That's a lot of dead and arrested Russian officers. And 150 FSB officers? WTF?

[LFC]

An explanation of Ukraine's military strategy the author calls "corrosion."

[LFC]

This is an interesting analysis of the success of a slow flying drone against the Russian Navy. Coming from a non-military point of view it sure seems that the invention of drones, cruise missiles, and other technologies that get reported on are making naval vessels more and more vulnerable.

[LFC]

The list of war crimes perpetrated by Russia continues growing.

Russian forces gunned down a 14-year-old boy playing soccer and two teen brothers out for a walk after they seized control of villages in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions in the early weeks of the war, a new investigation reveals.

The teens were just a few of the victims of what Human Rights Watch has described as Russia’s “abhorrent, unlawful, and cruel” campaign against civilians from late February through March. Having interviewed dozens of survivors, the human-rights group on Tuesday revealed new “evident war crimes” that it says must immediately be investigated.

Survivors from the village of Yahidne recalled Russian soldiers holding more than 350 residents hostage in a school basement for 28 days, under such abysmal conditions that many of those who lived through the ordeal were still hospitalized in mid-April for conditions they developed during their time in captivity.

Seventy of those trapped in the basement were children, five of them babies, survivors said.

“After a week, everyone was coughing violently. Almost all the children had high fevers, spasms from coughing, and would throw up,” one survivor was quoted saying, noting that detainees were deprived of food for the first several days.

Ten of the older hostages are said to have died during their weeks in captivity.

In other cases, survivors recalled Russian troops searching for any excuse to kill villagers, and then executing them even if they didn’t find one.

The first Russian soldier is convicted of war crimes. You know that Putin will play tit for tat and accuse / convict (same thing in Russia) Ukrainian soldiers of false charges.

A 21-year-old Russian soldier has become the first to plead guilty to war crimes in Ukraine after confessing to shooting an unarmed 62-year-old man. Prosecutors say Vadim Shishimarin was commanding a unit when his convoy came under attack. After he and four other soldiers stole a car and drove to near Chupakhivka, they came across the 62-year-old on a bicycle. Prosecutors say Shishimarin was ordered to kill the civilian and did so using a Kalashnikov assault rifle. With the widow of the man he killed seated just meters away from him in court, the BBC reports that Shishimarin kept his head bowed. “Do you accept your guilt?” the judge asked. “Yes,” Shishimarin replied. “Totally?” the judge asked. “Yes,” he replied quietly. He now faces life in prison under penalties spelled out in the section of the Ukrainian criminal code around customs of war.

[LFC]

We are sending Ukraine a LOT of military aid.

[jackd]

They're likely to need every bit of it.

[LFC]

Just due to sheer numbers I find it hard to believe Ukraine will come out of this with their territory (post-Donbas / post-Crimea) restored. Putin will likely get his land bridge to Crimea but may have to give up on stealing their entire coastline.

[LFC]

May 12, 2022 16:32:25 GMT LFC said:

Equipment destruction update:

Date  Vehicles      Tanks      Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks

Definite slowdown as Russia seems to be more involved in shelling cities and towns to terrorize civilians and shoring up defenses rather than trying to take new territory.

[andydp]

This inset was in the "Corrosion" thread in UKR subject.


 

[andydp]

If you're familiar with WWII history, especially towards the end, you'll recognize the name of the weapon.  It has been modified over the years but its still out there.  Coupled with the design flaws in RUS tanks, once again cheap little weapons can destroy multi million dollar vehicles.

Tech nerd info:  RUS tanks and the crews have been suffering catastrophic damage simply because the ammunition is stored inside the working area. When the ammo is detonated by a round, the turret gets blown off the tank.   On the M1 Abrams Tank, the ammo is stored at the rear of the turret, separated from the crew by a blast shield.  The ammo compartment has relatively weak sides designed to let the blast forces escape through them.  The tank may have lost its ammo, but it can be repaired quickly and the crew survived the hit.  I have to assume most NATO tanks have the same ammo storage design.  Simply put, most of the area behind the tank commander is ammo storage





In Ukraine, the German Panzerfaust 3 is making Junk of Russian Tanks

It is no secret that the West has supplied Ukraine with various anti-tank and anti-armor weapon systems that have helped them fend off Russian tanks. The more well-known are the Javelins the US donated and the NLAWs that the British Government also gave the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, there’s another anti-tank weapon that has not been getting the recognition it deserves, and that is the German-made tank killer, the Panzerfaust 3.

Last February 3, the Netherlands, with Germany’s approval, donated some 400 Panzerfaust 3 rocket-propelled grenade launchers to Ukraine in an attempt to aid the Ukrainian defensive efforts.


sofrep.com/news/in-ukraine-the-german-panzerfaust-3-is-making-junk-of-russian-tanks/?fbclid=IwAR2y2FqrbVhpdVk4YMD96L679VyDnUmX3D8E-gzu5-6iPv3caqjgyZG5-ws

[LFC]

From that link. Wow.

he Ukrainians will not run out of these anti-tank weapon systems as they have been supplied by their western allies with stockpiles of them. The US alone has donated thousands of Javelin systems during the three-month-old war

“We’ve sent thousands of anti-armor and anti-[air] missile, helicopters, drones, grenade launchers, machine guns, rifles, radar systems. More than 50 million rounds of ammunition had already been sent,” Biden stated.

“The United States alone has provided 10 anti-armor systems for every one Russian tank that’s in Ukraine — a 10 to 1 ratio,” Biden explained.

[pnwguy]

Ukraine's defense against Russian forces has made the US military re-think the future of warfare.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/ukraine-russia-moskva-military-marine-corps/629930/

[andydp]

Follow up on Russian River Crossing Operations:  Short answer: These guys suck at this.  There is no long answer.

The article explains what I've been talking about: the complexity of the operation itself, the need to practice, all sorts of things we can see the Russians did not do, even if you don't know the subject.

Ukraine's Forces Sink Russian River Crossings, Inflicting Heavy Damage

A river crossing in combat is in many ways similar to storming a beach, say military experts. Both are generally extremely exposed, requiring painstaking preparation, speed and a complex combination of land, water and air forces. In both maneuvers, the element of surprise is hard to maintain with more than a small force or in daytime.

River crossings can be vital in offensive combat situations since bodies of water often form natural defenses. But because crossings entail unusual equipment, specialized forces, and can put large numbers of troops in harm’s way, they should be attempted only when absolutely necessary, say tacticians.

“Commanders only use them when they expect a big payoff,” said retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan. “They are normally done where an army expects to use that route as an important axis of advance.”

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-s-forces-sink-russian-river-crossings-inflicting-heavy-damage/ar-AAXC1AM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3f3a6335393a470e9b2c5bcbd662feb5

[andydp]

May 23, 2022 19:04:19 GMT pnwguy said:

Ukraine's defense against Russian forces has made the US military re-think the future of warfare.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/ukraine-russia-moskva-military-marine-corps/629930/

Thank you.  SUPER interesting.

[LFC]

(A day late from my regular updates.)

Equipment destruction update:

Date   Vehicles     Tanks       Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks
5/27:  4150 (+475)  733 (+62)  13 weeks

And the pace of Russian equipment destruction is back up. In fact it looks like it at its highest point in 6 weeks. Russia is making inroads into parts of the Donbas and perhaps they're engaging more.