Ukraine

[LFC]

Pope Francis, W...T...F?

Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Pope Francis has floated the idea that he wants to take a trip to Kyiv to try to broker a ceasefire. But now he says he would prefer to go to Moscow to try to talk some sense into Vladimir Putin, who he has not outwardly condemned in the now nearly three-month-old war and only did so lightly in a lengthy interview with an Italian newspaper.

“I feel that before going to Kyiv, I must go to Moscow,” he told Corriere Della Sera in an interview that ran Tuesday. But the meeting would not exactly be to condemn Putin, based on what he told the paper. He said that the real “scandal” of Putin’s war is “NATO barking at Russia’s door,” which he said caused the Kremlin to “react badly and unleash the conflict.”

Never mind that the 85-year-old pontiff is unable to walk after tearing a ligament in his knee (for which he says he will soon have surgery), or that Putin won’t even answer his calls. Francis repeated comments he has made in general audiences and in other interviews that the war is nothing more than a giant opportunity for a “trade in arms” and that it is still ongoing because of the constant shuttling of weapons to Ukraine. He has spoken twice by phone to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but mostly to urge him not to fight back. He also went to the Russian embassy to the Holy See days after the invasion began to “register his concerns” about what was happening.

“I don’t know how to answer—I’m too far away—the question of whether it is right to supply the Ukrainians,” he told the paper. “The clear thing is that weapons are being tested there. The Russians now know that tanks are of little use and are thinking of other things. This is why wars are waged: to test the weapons we have produced. Few people are fighting this trade, but more should be done.”

Whether the Italian journalists didn’t ask—or whether he didn’t answer— there was no mention about what would happen if Ukrainians were not fiercely fighting back, whether it would mean a full annexation of the entire country, millions of deaths, or empowering an already insatiably power-hungry Putin.

Francis veered toward conspiracy theory as he blamed the international community for instigating the war. “You cannot think that a free state can make war on another free state,” he said. “In Ukraine, it seems that it was others who created the conflict. I am pessimistic but we must do everything possible to stop the war.” The pope then said that in a state visit to Rome by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, he was told “the Russians have a plan, that everything will end on May 9” without giving any further explanation. May 9 is the day Russia celebrates its liberation and the end of World War II.

I'm getting sick and tired of these opinions that the West is at least partly to blame for creating and expanding NATO. It's like the U.S. (and maybe the U.K., Germany, and France) and Russia are the only countries involved here. All of those little piss-ant countries like Romania, Slovakia, and now Finland? Yeah, they don't get a say and should never be allowed to seek security with Western nations.

[goldenvalley]

May 3, 2022 17:27:54 GMT LFC said:

Pope Francis, W...T...F?

Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Pope Francis has floated the idea that he wants to take a trip to Kyiv to try to broker a ceasefire. But now he says he would prefer to go to Moscow to try to talk some sense into Vladimir Putin, who he has not outwardly condemned in the now nearly three-month-old war and only did so lightly in a lengthy interview with an Italian newspaper.

“I feel that before going to Kyiv, I must go to Moscow,” he told Corriere Della Sera in an interview that ran Tuesday. But the meeting would not exactly be to condemn Putin, based on what he told the paper. He said that the real “scandal” of Putin’s war is “NATO barking at Russia’s door,” which he said caused the Kremlin to “react badly and unleash the conflict.”

Never mind that the 85-year-old pontiff is unable to walk after tearing a ligament in his knee (for which he says he will soon have surgery), or that Putin won’t even answer his calls. Francis repeated comments he has made in general audiences and in other interviews that the war is nothing more than a giant opportunity for a “trade in arms” and that it is still ongoing because of the constant shuttling of weapons to Ukraine. He has spoken twice by phone to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but mostly to urge him not to fight back. He also went to the Russian embassy to the Holy See days after the invasion began to “register his concerns” about what was happening.

“I don’t know how to answer—I’m too far away—the question of whether it is right to supply the Ukrainians,” he told the paper. “The clear thing is that weapons are being tested there. The Russians now know that tanks are of little use and are thinking of other things. This is why wars are waged: to test the weapons we have produced. Few people are fighting this trade, but more should be done.”

Whether the Italian journalists didn’t ask—or whether he didn’t answer— there was no mention about what would happen if Ukrainians were not fiercely fighting back, whether it would mean a full annexation of the entire country, millions of deaths, or empowering an already insatiably power-hungry Putin.

Francis veered toward conspiracy theory as he blamed the international community for instigating the war. “You cannot think that a free state can make war on another free state,” he said. “In Ukraine, it seems that it was others who created the conflict. I am pessimistic but we must do everything possible to stop the war.” The pope then said that in a state visit to Rome by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, he was told “the Russians have a plan, that everything will end on May 9” without giving any further explanation. May 9 is the day Russia celebrates its liberation and the end of World War II.

I'm getting sick and tired of these opinions that the West is at least partly to blame for creating and expanding NATO. It's like the U.S. (and maybe the U.K., Germany, and France) and Russia are the only countries involved here. All of those little piss-ant countries like Romania, Slovakia, and now Finland? Yeah, they don't get a say and should never be allowed to seek security with Western nations.

Naivety.  He didn't live in quite the cloistered Church coming from South America but he still has little idea what the real world is. The idea that Putin would even let him in Moscow is a joke.  Putin has been embracing the Russian Orthodox Church as part of his schtick. Putin is telling Russians they are in a Holy War.  No way would he meet with an RC Pope or take advice from him.

[pnwguy]

May 3, 2022 20:08:10 GMT goldenvalley said:

Naivety.  He didn't live in quite the cloistered Church coming from South America but he still has little idea what the real world is. The idea that Putin would even let him in Moscow is a joke.  Putin has been embracing the Russian Orthodox Church as part of his schtick. Putin is telling Russians they are in a Holy War.  No way would he meet with an RC Pope or take advice from him.

I am gratified that heavily Catholic Poland has been so supportive of Ukraine, even when they are bearing a HUGE burden of refugees and weapons logistics. Of course, they have plenty of experience in Soviet (and Nazi German) occupation, so it does give them a common bond that seems stronger than the religious friction.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) - start
--
3/25 : 1831 (289) -   7 days (4 weeks since invasion on Feb 24)
4/01 : 2175 (359) - 14 days (5 weeks since...)
4/07 : 2614 (449) - 21 days (6 weeks since...)
4/14 : 2885 (505) - 28 days (7 weeks since...)
4/21 : 3068 (528) - 35 days (8 weeks since...)
4/28 : 3248 (580) - 42 days (9 weeks since...)
5/05 : 3417 (605) - 49 days (10 weeks since...)

Equipment destruction is at about the same pace but tank destruction is slowing down. I guess there are fewer target and fewer opportunities, or maybe Ukraine is more focused on blowing up Russian generals.

[indy]

No idea if this is actually true. If so, another 500 million dollar Russian ship may be damaged to some degree.

[andydp]

May 5, 2022 13:26:48 GMT LFC said:

Equipment destruction is at about the same pace but tank destruction is slowing down. I guess there are fewer target and fewer opportunities, or maybe Ukraine is more focused on blowing up Russian generals.

Speaking of Tanks...  The T-90 is probably as advanced as the US Abrams tank.  It has reactive armor which would negate a shape charge warhead by setting off an explosive at the site.  As with all machines, there are "soft spots".  (Remember the "Death Star ?) Note it was taken out not by another tank but my a small, cheap missile: "Javelin"


Russia's most advanced tank in service was destroyed by Ukraine this week, according to reports.

The military vehicle had been in Ukraine for less than two weeks before it was hit, officials said.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said the tank was hit by a Javelin anti-tank missile system.

Russia faced yet another military setback this week following reports that one of the country's most advanced tanks in service, the T-90M, was destroyed just days after it was deployed to Ukraine.

Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko first posted a picture of the charred vehicle on Wednesday from the Kharkiv region, which he said was recently liberated by Ukrainian forces.

Tsaplienko shared a photo of himself standing in front of the ruined tank, jokingly telling his followers that the destroyed vehicle is "hot, it's smokin' hot."

news.yahoo.com/russias-most-advanced-tank-obliterated-205429121.html

[andydp]

May 6, 2022 18:51:28 GMT indy said:

No idea if this is actually true. If so, another 500 million dollar Russian ship may be damaged to some degree.

Several news reports seem to confirm this.  In case you forgot, Snake Island was where the UKR soldiers told the Russians "F*&^ You"

Russian warship Admiral Makarov ‘on fire after being hit by Ukrainian missile’

Russia’s Admiral Makarov warship has been hit by Ukrainian missiles and burst into flames, according to Ukrainian officials.

The frigate would be Russia’s latest high-profile naval loss in a troubled campaign, coming after reports that US intelligence helped Ukraine locate and sink the Russian warship Moskva weeks ago.

The Makarov was said to have been sailing close to Snake Island in the Black Sea south of Odesa.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Anton Gerashchenko reported on his Telegram page that the Admiral Makarov was hit by a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile. He cited Russian sources.

Russian navy ships stationed in Crimea were sent to help Admiral Makarov, he added.

Dumskaya, a Ukrainian-state news website, said Russian forces had sent helicopters to rescue the crew of the ship, said to be 180-strong.

Admiral Makarov is a modern frigate loaded with guided missiles, according to the World Directory of Modern Warships. If lost, Russia’s frigate fleet will be down to 10.


www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-warship-admiral-makarov-e2-80-98on-fire-after-being-hit-by-ukrainian-missile-e2-80-99/ar-AAWYPwZ?ocid=BingNewsSearch

[LFC]

With all of this bad news for Russia this seems particularly fitting.

[indy]

You really have to wonder about the Russian Navy. This latest ship was put to sea in 2017 or thereabouts. It's like brand new. It was conceivable that the Ukrainians were really, really lucky with the Moskva. It was an older ship. It hadn't been upgraded according to schedule, or maybe the captain was lax or incompetent.

But two of them? Nah. Something is quite broken with their defensive capabilities. Kinda like the offensive capabilities of their ground game.

[andydp]

Follow up to the Makarov damage, sinking etc..  I realize this is a rehash of the prior article but the Defense Minister's quote is worth it.

Ukraine Says It Sank Another Russian Ship Near Snake Island

The Ukrainian military announced Saturday that it has brought down yet another Russian ship trolling the Black Sea near Snake Island. The Defense Ministry of Ukraine tweeted a video of a ship that it identified as a Russian Serna craft, a type of boat used to transport troops for amphibious landings, Radio Free Europe reports. According to the military, a Bayraktar drone was used to sink the warship. “The traditional parade of the Russian Black Sea fleet on May 9 this year will be held near Snake Island—at the bottom of the sea,” the Defense Ministry said. A Russian antiaircraft system en route to Snake Island was also allegedly destroyed by the Bayraktar drone strike.

(A reminder)

Russia has yet to comment on the incident and outside sources have yet to independently verify the sinking.

www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-reports-sinking-another-russian-warship-near-snake-island?fbclid=IwAR0sYOTU4xp7Bk7MWhyMhrkdsEvwOpiodkkYmXUIHvYZHIPzFG70SyYCExQ

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

Date  Vehicles      Tanks      Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks

 

I reformatted a bit and added increases to better see what's going on. Equipment destruction seems to be going back up and I wonder if it's because the latest shipments of weapons are being deployed. I have heard that there are Ukrainian counter-offensives which may be taking their toll. No matter what this moronic war is bleeding the Russian military pretty badly.

BTW here is the list of ships taken out. I didn't expect that Russia would have taken on much in the way of ship losses at all but clearly Ukraine is targeting them.

Naval Ships (9, of which destroyed: 7, damaged: 2)

1 Project 1164 Slava class guided missile cruiser 'Moskva': (1, sunk)
5 Project 03160 Raptor class patrol boat: (1, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (2, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (3, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (4, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (5, damaged)
1 Project 1171 Tapir class landing ship 'Saratov (BDK-65)': (1, destroyed)
1 Project 775 Ropucha class landing ship: (1, damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna class landing craft: (1, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2)

[goldenvalley]

May 12, 2022 16:32:25 GMT LFC said:

Equipment destruction update:

Date  Vehicles      Tanks      Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks

 

I reformatted a bit and added increases to better see what's going on. Equipment destruction seems to be going back up and I wonder if it's because the latest shipments of weapons are being deployed. I have heard that there are Ukrainian counter-offensives which may be taking their toll. No matter what this moronic war is bleeding the Russian military pretty badly.

BTW here is the list of ships taken out. I didn't expect that Russia would have taken on much in the way of ship losses at all but clearly Ukraine is targeting them.

Naval Ships (9, of which destroyed: 7, damaged: 2)

1 Project 1164 Slava class guided missile cruiser 'Moskva': (1, sunk)
5 Project 03160 Raptor class patrol boat: (1, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (2, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (3, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (4, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (5, damaged)
1 Project 1171 Tapir class landing ship 'Saratov (BDK-65)': (1, destroyed)
1 Project 775 Ropucha class landing ship: (1, damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna class landing craft: (1, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2)

Destroy the Russian Navy might mean the Russians lose interest in Odesa?  No ships to dock there.

[andydp]

This is something I'm very familiar with.  Amphibious landings on a hostile shore and river crossing operations are the most difficult and complex operations ANY Army could do.   Having drones take out the pontoons (floating bridge sections) is one problem I didn't get to consider. The threat of airstrikes and resistance on the opposite shore make this sort of operation dangerous and very prone to failure unless both shores are cleared of enemy.

Ukraine Thwarts Russia's Attempts To Cross River In Luhansk; Destroys Pontoon Bridges

Russia lost nearly an entire battalion while trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River that runs between the separatist-held region of Luhansk and Donetsk.

In a key development, Russia on Wednesday claimed that it lost nearly an entire battalion while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River that runs between the separatist-held region of Luhansk and the Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine. As the war rages on in its 11th week, Zelenskyy’s troops thwarted Russian attempts to cross the river by blowing up two pontoon (floating) bridges near Bilohorivka. Satellite images accessed by geospatial intelligence firm Blacksky and shared by Ukrainian Defense Forces depict the destroyed bridges. Several other images also indicate charred Russian tanks.

(Side note: the tanks are massed together.  The way it works there are control points who will tell the vehicles when to get to the bridgehead.  My first impression is they tried to do this "on the fly" and it failed miserably.)

Of note:

In a key development, Russia on Wednesday claimed that it lost nearly an entire battalion while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River that runs between the separatist-held region of Luhansk and the Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine.


www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/ukraine-thwarts-russias-attempts-to-cross-river-in-luhansk-destroys-pontoon-bridges-articleshow.html

[LFC]

May 12, 2022 20:07:37 GMT andydp said:

In a key development, Russia on Wednesday claimed that it lost nearly an entire battalion while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River that runs between the separatist-held region of Luhansk and the Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine. 

Two takeaways for me.

a) I had to look it up but a Russian rifle battalion is about 370 troops. If armor was placed there as Andy mentioned it could have been a lot of men killed and equipment destroyed.

b) HOLY CRAP! Russia ADMITTED it!

[indy]

Not a rifle battalion. It's a Battalion Tactical Group (BTG). That's quite a bit more. Each BTG has approximately 600ish soldiers, 10 tanks, and 40 other armored vehicles. Of course, those are probably overestimates given the number of things Russia has already lost so I expect each BTG in Ukraine is undermanned currently.

[LFC]

More on the Russian casualties from their ill-fated attempted river crossing.

[LFC]

The Ukrainian offensive has apparently pushed most Russian artillery out of range of Kharkiv. Russia now has to decide if it wants to just try to hold on in the north or move resources from elsewhere to strengthen their position.

A site tracking who holds what is linked to. Here's a full map of the Ukrainian front.

This tweet from the same source has a GIF showing what the Russian military has lost in the past two weeks. It's not huge but it sure does seem strategic.

[goldenvalley]

I'm learning a lot here from you guys.  Wish I didn't have to learn via a live war.

[indy]

Here is a pretty awesome thread by the Ukrainian military engineer who accurately predicted where the Russians were going to attempt to cross the river.

[indy]

I've been watching some artillery strikes by the Ukrainians and am flabbergasted at their precision. Eight vehicles sitting in a large field and nearly all the rounds hit something. They are apparently doing something pretty sophisticated. Not sure how much of this is true but the theory I read is that they are using single guns in several different locations and at several different distances to target the same Russian grouping. The rounds are fired at different times (to account for the different distances to the target).

The Russian radar detects each single round as it is fired, but a single round being fired is below the threshold that would trigger a counter strike. However, the rounds are perfectly timed to arrive at the target at the same time.

Ingenious.

[jackd]

TOT, (time on target) has been a tool of American artillery for many years. I agree that the foiing of counter battery fire is ingenious.

[andydp]

May 12, 2022 23:21:08 GMT indy said:

Here is a pretty awesome thread by the Ukrainian military engineer who accurately predicted where the Russians were going to attempt to cross the river.

Having been a Combat Engineer, this guy and the UKR Army did everything perfectly in coordinating the defense and destruction of the attempted river crossing. 

Doctrinally, there are three phases of a river crossing:

Assault boat: small groups cross over (via rubber boats) and secure the far shore.  This is done by clearing direct fire weapons from the bridgehead area.

Rafting: where you slowly bring over some armored vehicles to further secure the other side, expand your occupied area, and defend the bridgehead. Without getting technical, the rafts are made up of the bridge parts. After everything is secure, they are connected and made into pontoon bridges

Bridging: Once the area is secured, assemble the bridges and start sending over the "big guns".

Based on the report, looks like they tried to go over without securing the far shore.

It is simply amazing. Some things to glean from the story: 

UKR is using recon drones effectively and has overall good INTEL.  (I'm sure the Ukrainians in the area aren't doing much to help the Russians.)
Their coordination, AKA: Command Control Coordination (C3) capabilities are top notch.  Makes me think they've been practicing this for years.
As shown in previous reports, RUS Armed Forces have major C3 breakdowns.  I can also assume they haven't practiced this type of operation.
I'm tempted to think their tactics are still based on overwhelming the NATO ground and air forces in Germany, like the "old USSR" days.

According to the report, looks like there was no Russian air cover.  That sector's air defenses should have been of the highest priority.  

I think every Combat Engineer in the world will be studying this report for years to make sure they don't repeat the Russian mistakes.

[andydp]

May 12, 2022 22:50:26 GMT goldenvalley said:

I'm learning a lot here from you guys.  Wish I didn't have to learn via a live war.

Sadly, professional soldiers are all studying these battles to learn how to avoid the mistakes.  We're seeing this played out every day by the Russians.  The only thing we can do is to learn and develop tactics to avoid unnecessary casualties.  

In no other profession are the penalties for employing untrained personnel so appalling or so irrevocable as in the military.

Douglas MacArthur

When he was criticized for "overtraining" his troops Gen Patton responded

A pint of sweat, saves a gallon of blood.

George S. Patton

[LFC]

Russia is struggling though they still hold a significant area. It seems like a war of attrition with Russia against a whole lot of other countries. It doesn't help them that they aren't fighting for their homes and families. I found this thread interesting, especially what Russia is saying about the combat power it has remaining.

Russia still has the "majority" of its combat power – including weapons, troops, and supplies – left for the fight in Ukraine. Weeks ago that number was 75 percent.

Western officials peg Russia as deploying roughly 65-70 percent of ground forces to Ukraine

Does that mean they've lost 1/3 of their combat abilities? How many troop casualties have they actually sustained?

[andydp]

May 13, 2022 21:19:12 GMT LFC said:

Russia is struggling though they still hold a significant area. It seems like a war of attrition with Russia against a whole lot of other countries. It doesn't help them that they aren't fighting for their homes and families. I found this thread interesting, especially what Russia is saying about the combat power it has remaining.

Russia still has the "majority" of its combat power – including weapons, troops, and supplies – left for the fight in Ukraine. Weeks ago that number was 75 percent.

Western officials peg Russia as deploying roughly 65-70 percent of ground forces to Ukraine

Does that mean they've lost 1/3 of their combat abilities? How many troop casualties have they actually sustained?

 

One has to remember these figures may be a bit misleading. They may still have "units", but the reality is most of the fighting parts (people and equipment) are likely gone. Also, the Russians count "border police" and other paramilitary groups as part of the Army.

This is the same situation like the last days of the Third Reich and "the bunker". They were moving units here and there but the units were only the administrative and logistical parts. The combat parts were long gone.