Ukraine

[pnwguy]

Apr 27, 2022 21:06:35 GMT LFC said:

Apr 27, 2022 20:20:52 GMT jackd said:

Except for the possibility of Putin lashing out disastrously in panic.

Always a worry. He's already gone from military invasion to mass murder.

And he could up that ante by an order of magnitude if he decides to show he has nukes and won't ever be deterred.

Let's say he decides to level Kyiv with a nuke, to decapitate the government.  What realistically could NATO or the west do in retaliation, that doesn't launch a MAD response?  

[andydp]

Super interesting article even if a bit long.  Well worth the effort to read.

I mentioned in earlier posts about how Russian soldiers are not trained to take initiative. They train via "set piece" scenarios that don't necessarily equate to real world situations. Not to mention the rampant corruption and lack of training at all levels.  I leave out mention of incompetence because based on my experience, when people are trained and encouraged to take action as needed things change for the better.

I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.

The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.

My experiences with the Russian and Ukrainian armies over the two decades reminded me of a passage from Jean Larteguy’s The Centurions. In a moment of frustration, a French officer summarizes the two purposes an army can serve:

I’d like [France] to have two armies: one for display with lovely guns, tanks, little soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals, and dear little regimental officers who would be deeply concerned over their General’s bowel movements or their Colonel’s piles, an army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country. The other would be the real one, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display, but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That’s the army in which I should like to fight.

For all their bellicose rhetoric and Victory Day parades on Red Square, I sometimes wonder if Putin and Shoygu know the difference between the two types of armies. The Ukrainians sure do.


www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/?fbclid=IwAR1HiiR35c2kyhxECVZ2hXtCDe5wFN5Z1m6xeessNCWhyT89LAz-1cQxf1k

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) - start
--
3/25 : 1831 (289) -   7 days (4 weeks since invasion on Feb 24)
4/01 : 2175 (359) - 14 days (5 weeks)
4/07 : 2614 (449) - 21 days (6 weeks)
4/14 : 2885 (505) - 28 days (7 weeks)
4/21 : 3068 (528) - 35 days (8 weeks)
4/28 : 3248 (580) - 42 days (9 weeks)

I thought the destruction was slowing down. Apparently not.

[jackd]

The piece reminded me of my time at Grafenwoehr many years ago when it's most noteworthy feature was the ability to generate dust in the faces of vehicle commanders on tank trails during a drenching downpour.

[LFC]

The dolphins have been deployed.

Russia is using militarized marine mammals to protect a key Black Sea naval base, according to multiple reports. Satellite imagery shows what military experts believe are two dolphin pens floating off the mouth of its key navy base in Sevastopol harbor off Crimea.

Military analyst H.I. Sutton first broke the news in the USNI military outlet after analyzing current and archival satellite imagery which he says show that the pens were put there in February to coincide with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia keeps some of its most important military hardware at the base and the dolphins are likely trained for operations that would counter enemy divers or retrieve explosives to protect the port.

[andydp]

Apr 28, 2022 19:45:18 GMT LFC said:

The dolphins have been deployed.

Russia is using militarized marine mammals to protect a key Black Sea naval base, according to multiple reports. Satellite imagery shows what military experts believe are two dolphin pens floating off the mouth of its key navy base in Sevastopol harbor off Crimea.

Military analyst H.I. Sutton first broke the news in the USNI military outlet after analyzing current and archival satellite imagery which he says show that the pens were put there in February to coincide with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia keeps some of its most important military hardware at the base and the dolphins are likely trained for operations that would counter enemy divers or retrieve explosives to protect the port.

I'm wondering what animal they will be deploying against drones aimed at the facilities.

[LFC]

Biden is looking to ramp up the amount of aid to Ukraine by a lot.

Woofers
@notwoofers
Ok, so the Americans are serious. Biden is asking Congress for a $33 billion support package for Ukraine, including over $20 billion for military assistance.

To put that into perspective, the Ukrainian military budget is $5.9 billion.

[LFC]

Congress just gave Biden more maneuvering room to provide military support Ukraine and other Eastern European nations.

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender

The U.S House of Representatives has Passed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 and sent the Bill to President Biden’s Desk to be signed into Law, this will allow the President to send Military Aid to Ukraine and Eastern European Countries without restrictions.

[goldenvalley]

Apr 28, 2022 19:51:07 GMT andydp said:

Apr 28, 2022 19:45:18 GMT LFC said:

The dolphins have been deployed.

I'm wondering what animal they will be deploying against drones aimed at the facilities.

Don't forget Birds Aren't Real.  

[andydp]

Apr 28, 2022 21:26:38 GMT goldenvalley said:

Apr 28, 2022 19:51:07 GMT andydp said:

I'm wondering what animal they will be deploying against drones aimed at the facilities.

Don't forget Birds Aren't Real.  

At times like these, we should be looking at historical precedent: how did Washington protect the airfields ?

[LFC]

There are reports that Russia's top general in charge of the entire Russian military, General Gerasimov, could be deployed to take control over the entire Ukraine campaign. If true then it seems like one heck of a step down. 

[andydp]

Another good analysis of the UKR/RU situation.  If Russia changes to the Donbas/Chechia region they will get the advantage of "inner lines of communication and supply" something they showed they are incapable or not equipped to do when they were attacking Kyiv.  One short statement mentioned they're staying close to a rail line.  A VERY advantageous supply route for the amount of supplies they can transport.

Who has the advantage in the war for eastern Ukraine?

British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once famously cautioned following a decisive battlefield victory in 1942, when the tide of World War II seemed to be turning in the allies’ favor, that it was “not the end, not even the beginning of the end but, possibly, the end of the beginning.”

Russia launched a three-front invasion on Feb. 24, with the apparent goal of toppling the Ukrainian government. Nearly eight weeks into the war, that initial goal is almost certainly out of reach, thanks to stiffer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, substantial international help and well-documented logistical and strategic difficulties for Russia. Now, Russia is focused on a more modest objective: an offensive aimed at taking over the contested region of southeastern Ukraine known as the Donbas.

www.grid.news/story/global/2022/04/19/who-has-the-advantage-in-the-war-for-eastern-ukraine/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Paid&utm_campaign=FB-Paid-Advantage-in-Ukraine&fbclid=IwAR0YY7eP-DE4ZKEufeKriKFGEw5adfs-6JLcuGEI6u6YGit3-ByxGy5A6EQ

[andydp]

More encouraging news from NATO.  UKR Forces are set to receive NATO standard equipment.  Note the highlighted passage.  This "think tank" doesn't have a good opinion of RUS Forces or their abilities.  Which brings us back to "what's Putin going to do if he keeps stepping on his poncho ?"



Ukraine military to switch to modern weapons, holds off eastern assault


May 1 (UPI) -- Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian military, said Sunday that the country plans to move to using modern weapons that meet NATO standards as experts said the country continues to hold off Russia's assault on its eastern region.

Zaluzhny's comments were made in a telephone call with Gen. Mark Milley, the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, The New York Times reported. The country has been relying on using Soviet-era weapons shipped from its allies and has received some weapons that meet NATO standards that have not yet made it into its defense effort.

The Institute for the Study of War, a thinktank based in Washington, D.C., said in an analysis update Saturday that troop reinforcements Russia recently sent to eastern Ukraine are "unlikely to enable stalled Russian forces to achieve substantial advances."  The thinktank said that the reinforcements are "unlikely to enable Russian forces to break the current deadlock" because Russian attacks remain confined to two major highways "and cannot leverage greater numbers."

Ukrainian forces have also made several successful counterattacks out of Kharkiv and recaptured a ring of suburbs that may "force Russian forces to redeploy units intended for the Izium axis to hold these positions," according to the thinktank.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-military-to-switch-to-modern-weapons-holds-off-eastern-assault/ar-AAWOuPQ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f32246409e434b55bfc5cccc6fc5c8b7

[indy]

Reports today are that General Valery Gerasimov, who was just given overall command of the invasion like two weeks ago, has been injured in a Ukrainian artillery attack that also killed another Russian general and killed or injured a number of other Russian command staff. Gerasimov has apparently been evacuated.

[LFC]

May 1, 2022 20:49:09 GMT indy said:

Reports today are that General Valery Gerasimov, who was just given overall command of the invasion like two weeks ago, has been injured in a Ukrainian artillery attack that also killed another Russian general and killed or injured a number of other Russian command staff. Gerasimov has apparently been evacuated.

That was quick.

[indy]

May 2, 2022 0:12:45 GMT LFC said:

May 1, 2022 20:49:09 GMT indy said:

Reports today are that General Valery Gerasimov, who was just given overall command of the invasion like two weeks ago, has been injured in a Ukrainian artillery attack that also killed another Russian general and killed or injured a number of other Russian command staff. Gerasimov has apparently been evacuated.

That was quick.

Either the Ukrainians are incredibly lucky or are getting some really good battlefield intelligence from...somewhere.

[jackd]

There are reports of sabotage and attacks on targets inside Russia which the Ukrainians are being uncommunicative about. I'm guessing it's all related,.

[andydp]

May 1, 2022 20:49:09 GMT indy said:

Reports today are that General Valery Gerasimov, who was just given overall command of the invasion like two weeks ago, has been injured in a Ukrainian artillery attack that also killed another Russian general and killed or injured a number of other Russian command staff. Gerasimov has apparently been evacuated.

We all need to get past this diary of incompetence and remember, Pres Putin still has a "nuke card" he can play.  

Ex-NATO commander: Loss of top Russian officers amid invasion unprecedented in modern history

Retired Adm. James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander for Europe, claims that the Russian military’s “amazing incompetence” in Ukraine has resulted in a loss of generals and other top officers that is unprecedented in modern history.

For comparison, Stavridis cited recent American conflicts, saying that “not a single general was lost in actual combat” in the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“It’s not just the generals being killed,” said Stavridis of the Russian military, additionally noting “their inability to conduct logistics,” “bad battle plan” and “loss of their flagship at sea.”

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ex-nato-commander-loss-of-top-russian-officers-amid-invasion-unprecedented-in-modern-history/ar-AAWNZFf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=21ed2cfc77464dbdad11b1b65314bea4

[jackd]

Apparently General Gerasimov was not present at the time of the attack.

[andydp]

May 2, 2022 1:29:38 GMT jackd said:

There are reports of sabotage and attacks on targets inside Russia which the Ukrainians are being uncommunicative about. I'm guessing it's all related,.

Since this started, I've been willing to put money there's Black Ops people from every NATO ally in the Ukraine (and in Russia).  

Don't forget, with smart munitions all you need are the coordinates, and you get a big boom without being near the target.  

[indy]

May 2, 2022 12:35:38 GMT jackd said:

Apparently General Gerasimov was not present at the time of the attack.

That's too bad.

[LFC]

The propaganda campaign to drag Moldova / Transnistria into the conflict is ramping up.

All indications are that Russia is maneuvering to attack Odessa. They clearly hope to cut Ukraine off from the coast and any shipping ports completely.

[LFC]

This thread sounds to me like a pretty level-headed assessment of the situation. There were several points that jumped out at me.

• Western nations need to be speaking in one voice. Having different leaders stating different objectives is not going to be helpful in calming things down.
  
• The West needs to create a clear set of objectives, one of which is self-determination by Ukraine. Neither Russia nor the West gets to set how things must be.
  
• There will be no total victory for either side.
  
• The talks for this must be VERY delicate.
  

This kind of sums up one part of what the author is saying.

In the current crisis, it is crucial to ensure the Russian invasion of Ukraine fails; that Ukraine has the capacity to vigorously defend itself and not be forced to negotiate at any point from a position of weakness;

that it has the right to define its own version of an acceptable agreement to end the war; and that in future it has the right to choose its own friends and allies.

It is also vital that the European security order remains in tact and is not reverted to a pre-WW2 state where the strong dictate to the weak with impunity.

It is not and should not be a central objective for NATO to attack and totally destroy the Russian military, to seek regime change in Moscow, or for Ukraine to join NATO (unless its own government and people wish it and existing NATO members agree).

Western policymakers need to support Ukraine’s right to choose, not insist only one choice is valid.

There are some who will find these objectives too limited but in a crisis between nuclear armed adversaries we do not get to choose total victory on the scale of 1945.

[LFC]

It seems like Russia is trying to cover up the number of their dead from the Russian public.

Russian authorities are transporting the dead bodies of Russia’s fallen soldiers from Ukraine back to Russia in “small batches” in the dead of night in an attempt to conceal just how many Russian troops are dying in Ukraine, according to intelligence shared by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

The intelligence—intercepted calls between Russian troops the SBU said it picked up in the Zaporozhye region—suggests that Russia is also transporting the corpses back to Russia in small groups in order to avoid suspicion that Russia’s invasion is sustaining massive losses or faltering in Ukraine, the SBU said.

“They are bringing them in small packs, so that people don’t freak out,” one of the callers said.

But the process is delaying the transport of the dead, forcing the parents and families of the troops to grieve over “half-decomposed cargo of 200” that are sometimes unrecognizable by the time they arrive, the SBU said.

[LFC]

Real or Ukrainian propaganda?

Even Vladimir Putin’s elite units are abandoning the fight in Ukraine and heading home, according to new audio released by Ukrainian intelligence on Tuesday. In a 50-second audio clip that Ukraine’s Security Service says is an intercepted communication between a Russian soldier and his friend, the soldier complains of more losses in Ukraine “than in four years in Chechnya.” His comrade admits that he doesn’t even know the real death toll, as “they don’t voice [the numbers] here.” He then asks if it’s true that members of the RosGvardia, Putin’s National Guard, have been leaving Ukraine along with the special police known as the Omonovtsy. The soldier erupts with fury: “We don’t fucking need them. They’re returning [home] because they’re staging revolts, they don’t want to go any further. All these fucking special forces, our fighters, dammit, backtracked… and they refuse to go further.” Ukrainian authorities did not specify where the purported soldier in the recording was based in Ukraine, and it was not clear when the call was intercepted.