Ukraine

[andydp]

A reminder why the Ukrainians are not giving up 

If I were an American, as I am an Englishman, while a foreign troop was landed in my country, I never would lay down my arms never never never!

William Pitt

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) - start
--
3/25 : 1831 (289) -  7 days
4/01 : 2175 (359) - 14 days
4/07 : 2614 (449) - 21 days
4/14 : 2885 (505) - 28 days
4/21 : 3068 (528) - 35 days

The destruction seems to have slowed with Russia's retreat.

[indy]

I never thought I'd live long enough to see such an incompetently waged and poorly considered war. Even assuming Russia can succeed with their new and immensely lowered bar of 'freeing' eastern Ukraine, which should be doable but is really questionable given their performance thus far, the cost will be HUGE. Not only in men and material, but in lost economic opportunities and in a newly committed adversary in NATO.

And, yes, Afghanistan probably fits into the same category but nothing like this in scale of the failure.

[goldenvalley]

Apr 21, 2022 16:58:59 GMT indy said:

I never thought I'd live long enough to see such an incompetently waged and poorly considered war. Even assuming Russia can succeed with their new and immensely lowered bar of 'freeing' eastern Ukraine, which should be doable but is really questionable given their performance thus far, the cost will be HUGE. Not only in men and material, but in lost economic opportunities and in a newly committed adversary in NATO.

And, yes, Afghanistan probably fits into the same category but nothing like this in scale of the failure.

Yeah we were all raised during the time when the only equivalent to American military power was the Soviet Union.  While I'm happy to see that Russian plans for Ukraine conquest have been stymied to a large degree, the amount of destruction and loss of life in Ukraine is not worth that small sense of schadenfreude.  

Plus I'm not sure that the Donbas region will stay Ukrainian.  Putin may get what he wants after all.  And really that was what he wanted, plus Odessa, to cut off Ukrainian access to shipping through the Black Sea.

[jackd]

He may get what he wants but, surprise, surprise ! he may not.

[andydp]

Apr 21, 2022 17:59:22 GMT goldenvalley said:

Apr 21, 2022 16:58:59 GMT indy said:

I never thought I'd live long enough to see such an incompetently waged and poorly considered war. Even assuming Russia can succeed with their new and immensely lowered bar of 'freeing' eastern Ukraine, which should be doable but is really questionable given their performance thus far, the cost will be HUGE. Not only in men and material, but in lost economic opportunities and in a newly committed adversary in NATO.

And, yes, Afghanistan probably fits into the same category but nothing like this in scale of the failure.

Yeah we were all raised during the time when the only equivalent to American military power was the Soviet Union.  While I'm happy to see that Russian plans for Ukraine conquest have been stymied to a large degree, the amount of destruction and loss of life in Ukraine is not worth that small sense of schadenfreude.  

Plus I'm not sure that the Donbas region will stay Ukrainian.  Putin may get what he wants after all.  And really that was what he wanted, plus Odessa, to cut off Ukrainian access to shipping through the Black Sea.

Years ago I watched a PBS show where they broke down the USSR armed forces.  It was a revelation to my C&GS class the USSR counted Border Troops as part of the military, plus a couple of other groups with minimal combat effectiveness.  We also were awakened to the fact any Russian supplies would have to come through places like Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland.  Not exactly friendly towards the USSR. 

We also saw a clip by a former tank officer who said the USSR Equipment wasn't exercised or maintained to any sort of readiness level.  He mentioned when inspectors came, they would paint the lawns so they looked green

[indy]

At this point, I think it's a toss up if Russia can accomplish even their greatly diminished goals. The could, I think, if they fully mobilized but that seems politically problematic for Putin. Unless they do, I give the edge to Ukraine.

[LFC]

Apr 21, 2022 20:06:29 GMT indy said:

At this point, I think it's a toss up if Russia can accomplish even their greatly diminished goals. The could, I think, if they fully mobilized but that seems politically problematic for Putin. Unless they do, I give the edge to Ukraine.

I think they'll manage to occupy the two eastern puppet states. He might even try holding onto a land bridge to Crimea though that would likely be more of a clusterf*** and might not get sanctions lifted. It will be interesting to see if Ukraine continues to hold it's position about the puppet states being part of Ukraine or says goodbye and good riddance to the more ethnically Russian region.

[LFC]

Sounds like the military is using Ukraine as a live test site.

The White House is sending the government of Ukraine a new type of drone developed by the U.S. Air Force that’s never been used in the battlefield before, according to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby in a press conference Thursday.

Information about the drone, dubbed the Phoenix Ghost, is still classified but Kirby says it’s similar to the Switchblade, many of which have already been sent to Ukraine in the country’s fight against Russia. The Switchblade is a very small tube-launched drone equipped with a camera and an explosive, making it a “single-use” aerial weapon.

“This unmanned aerial system is designed for tactical operations—in other words, largely but not exclusively, to attack targets,” Kirby said about the Phoenix Ghost on Thursday.

“Like almost all unmanned aerial systems, it has optics, so it can also be used to give you a site picture of what it’s seeing, of course. But its principle focus is attack,” Kirby continued.

Kirby said that while the Phoenix Ghost had been in development before Russia first started to attack Ukraine on Feb. 24, the Air Force helped tailor the new drone to meet Ukraine’s needs—especially in the eastern part of the country. When asked by a reporter at Thursday’s press conference what that means, Kirby wouldn’t elaborate.

“Without getting into the specifications, the kinds of things this drone can do, lends itself well to this particular type of terrain. I think I’m just going to leave it at that. But the purpose is akin to the Switchblade,” Kirby said.

[indy]

Interesting thread about artillery. Apparently, if I am understanding this correctly, the anti-artillery radar systems we are sending can locate enemy artillery when they fire, digitally transmit the coordinates to the artillery guns and the guns can automatically retarget to the sight.

[andydp]

Apr 23, 2022 13:50:37 GMT indy said:

Interesting thread about artillery. Apparently, if I am understanding this correctly, the anti-artillery radar systems we are sending can locate enemy artillery when they fire, digitally transmit the coordinates to the artillery guns and the guns can automatically retarget to the sight.

What's not mentioned is the MLRS system.  It's also called a "Grid Killer".  One battery's volley can literally take out a grid square (1KM square on a map). That would be the system to deploy.  I would imagine after a couple of return fire volleys, the Russian Arty people may not want to do fire missions.


www.military.com/equipment/m270-multiple-launch-rocket-system

[LFC]

I suspect that the U.S. military is keenly interested to see how these weapons perform on a real battleflied in the hands of a modern, train, disciplined force as compared to, say, the now non-existent Afghan Army and guerilla forces.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) - start
--
3/25 : 1831 (289) -   7 days
4/01 : 2175 (359) - 14 days
4/07 : 2614 (449) - 21 days
4/14 : 2885 (505) - 28 days
4/21 : 3068 (528) - 35 days
4/25 : 3188 (553) - 39 days

Hmmmm. 25 tanks in 4 days? Slower, but maybe the destruction isn't that much slower. And if the tweet thread on the artillery capabilities is accurate and it's deployed effectively those numbers may go up quickly though unverifiably.

[LFC]

I was looking through the last few days of the TPM Hive (members only) thread on this and this retired US Army Major General seems to be cited a bit. I don't know where he gets his info but this sentence was the first thing I've read that has really surprised me.

U.S. now believes that Ukraine has more tanks than Russia on the battlefield after Czech and other NATO deliveries of T-72 tanks.

He also says that Russia is down to just 65% of its 120 BTGs (battalion tactical groups) initially deployed. Some are apparently being resupplied / re-manned in Russia but about a dozen BTGs are tied up in holding Mariupol. If that's what they require to hold just one devastated city then they have little ability to hold what they take.

There is also a mention of the attack on Mariupol being carried out mostly with long-range missiles. Huh? Not artillery? Dumb bomb drops? If true they're spending a LOT of money on trying to finalize the destruction and occupation of just one city.

[LFC]

Two questions:

a) Where did we get all this (I'm assuming) Russian stuff?

b) Why were we still hanging onto it? In case of just this type of emergency?

[LFC]

This is a good series of posts on why Russia wants to take eastern and southern Ukraine as well as the pretty monumental task it would be for them to hold it. Here's the "holding it" part. The Russians want so much and to rule so many Ukrainians (about 1/4 of the population) that it's tough to see this war settling out any time soon.

14/25 First, few of the regions captured (with the exception of Luhansk & Donetsk) have previously demonstrated sympathy for separatists or the idea of ‘Novorossiya.’ As seen by armed resistance in Mariupol, Kharkiv and beyond, the Ukrainians do not want Russian overlords.

15/25 Where Russia has managed to capture Ukrainian towns or cities, they have proven themselves to be brutal conquerors. Bucha and other towns offer abundant evidence for why Ukrainians continue to defend their towns and cities, even when they are in ruins.

16/25 So the Russians are not enlightened counterinsurgents. They have a long record of brutality against local people and insurgents in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria. Their methods will see the birth & fan the flames of a resistance movement.

17/25 Therefore the Russians will need to deal with an unsupportive populace that sees itself as Ukrainian, not Russian. It is a populace that will probably support any Ukrainian resistance movement that emerges in captured territory (as it appears to have in Kherson & Kharkiv).

18/25 What about numbers for a Russian occupation? The population in 2021 of five southern & eastern Ukrainian Oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv) was nearly 12 million.

19/25 The utility of insurgent to government forces ratios has been explored in many studies. But how do we define ‘insurgent’ (and produce numbers) if a resistance movement has the support of a majority of the populace? rand.org/content/dam/ra…

20/25 As such, the 10:1 ratio often quoted may not be helpful here. It is also focussed on police & military forces, when the key to counterinsurgency is addressing political issues. The best way to end insurgencies is negotiation, not military force. ismor.com/cornwallis/cor…

21/25 Other research examines counterinsurgent - population ratios. A study by @ida_org found that counterinsurgents had a 50% probability of success where there were 16 troops per 1000 population. Let’s assume this as a minimum figure needed. ida.org/-/media/featur…

22/25 This means Russia would need an occupation force of ~192K. With their manpower challenges, this is unlikely. It is also broad brush & does not include political / informational capabilities. And international sanctions will not be relaxed while Russia occupies Ukraine.

23/25 Given the likelihood of a Ukrainian insurgency (supported by the west) & a large proportion of Ukrainians that don’t want Russian governance, the Russians with their manpower challanges are unlikely to be able to hold all of their gains in the south & east in the LONG term.

24/25 However, we could see festering low level conflict in these regions in the SHORT & MEDIUM terms that will prolong the conflict, make Ukraine poorer, and see 1/4 of its populace under the rule of Russia. This is untenable for a sovereign democracy.

25/25 It makes a defeat of Russia's eastern offensive an imperative. And the west should provide increased support for future Ukrainian offensives to retake as much of their territory as possible before any ceasefire. End.

[LFC]

More insanity from undisciplined, rogue Russian troops.

A filmmaker from Mariupol is facing an agonizing ordeal. She has been told to pay around $5,350 to Russian troops or her son Alexey will be executed on camera. Olga Novikova, who is well known in her native Ukraine, posted details of the Russian threat in a since deleted Facebook post Sunday evening.

She says she has until Monday to collect the money and get it to the rogue Russian contingent holding her son captive. “If I don’t pay up, they promised to kill him and send me a video of the execution,” she told independent Russian outlet Meduza. “The bottom line is that there’s no guarantee they’ll let him live even after I pay the ransom.”

Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelensky, posted a video of the boy being questioned by the Russians on Twitter and claimed this was the behavior of terrorists. “The Russian military is increasingly reminiscent of ISIS militants. Russia should be recognized as a terrorist state,” he said.

[indy]

Apr 25, 2022 20:32:54 GMT LFC said:

Two questions:

a) Where did we get all this (I'm assuming) Russian stuff?

b) Why were we still hanging onto it? In case of just this type of emergency?

a) Russians have sold tons and tons of arms including all the good stuff in the export market. It's everywhere and easy to buy. You don't have to buy it directly from Russia, you can just get it from one of their client states.

b) A lot of NATO countries used to be in the USSR. They were trained in them, use to using them, and don't have the money to simply replace them with more modern equipment that costs more to buy, and then you have to get training from maintenance on up. Then you have to buy the parts for stock, and ammo for them. So they have kept many of them.

[LFC]

There was an attack on a Russian weapons depot inside of Russia. I read a comment that I can't confirm but it said that this was the 13th attack on war infrastructure inside Russia itself.

A series of blasts sounded across in the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border early Wednesday morning as authorities extinguished a fire at an ammunition depot.

Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said he woke “to a loud sound like an explosion” at about 3:35am in an update posted to Telegram.

“So far, not a single duty service of the city and the region has found the cause of this sound,” he added.

The explosions were said to have come from near the village of Staraya Nelidovka which lies about 40km outside the Ukrainian border.

“According to preliminary information, an ammunition depot is on fire. There is no destruction of residential buildings, houses. There were no casualties among the civilian population,” Gladkov said.

The Belgorod province borders Ukraine’s Luhansk, Sumy and Kharkiv regions, all of which have seen heavy fighting since Russia invaded Ukraine two months ago.

And if this is true Ukraine is trying to push further from the border to hit strategic targets.

[andydp]

Good article on cyberwar and intercepts by US and UKR military.  Looks like the intercepts are made with assistance from just about every Ukrainian. (Not to mention the initial mistake of stealing cell phones.)

I have been wondering this myself: Russia has sophisticated military and communications. What the heck ? Here's one take from the article:

”The Russians brought their own cellphones into Ukraine. When the Ukrainians figured this out, they cut off Russian phone numbers from the Ukrainian network — so the Russian phones stopped working. Russian troops then began seizing cellphones from Ukrainian civilians,

(snip)

…”Then We call on Ukrainians whose mobile phones were taken away by representatives of enemy troops to inform the operator as soon as possible," the Ukrainian agency said in a statement last month.

Ukrainian civilians have complied, and this let the Ukrainian government know which phones were stolen by the Russians — and effectively became listening devices for the Ukrainians.

www.npr.org/2022/04/26/1094656395/how-does-ukraine-keep-intercepting-russian-military-communications?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab

[LFC]

Russian propaganda is getting weirder. It's like a gov't infused with QAnon. You know, like America if it ends up being run by Republicans.

[LFC]

Here's a take by Francis Fukuyama that Russia will outright lose the war. Here are his first 3 points:

I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.

3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

[Bact PhD]

Apr 27, 2022 19:12:05 GMT LFC said:

Here's a take by Francis Fukuyama that Russia will outright lose the war. Here are his first 3 points:

I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.

3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

I hope he’s right.

[jackd]

Except for the possibility of Putin lashing out disastrously in panic.

[LFC]

Apr 27, 2022 20:20:52 GMT jackd said:

Except for the possibility of Putin lashing out disastrously in panic.

Always a worry. He's already gone from military invasion to mass murder.