Ukraine

[LFC]

This is just sad. I feel bad for these poor schmucks who are just being sent of to be maimed and slaughtered.

[LFC]

I'll go out on a stout limb and predict that Russia won't be doing the same for their troops, at least not at the same level.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@warmonitor3

NATO is supplying the Ukrainian military with huge amounts of winter uniforms.

[andydp]

Sept 22, 2022 17:08:47 GMT LFC said:

One analyst who has a pretty good track record says that Ukraine won't be letting up on Russia, providing them no time to regroup.

Ben Hodges
@general_ben

Charles, I believe there is no “obligatory operational pause”in the coming months. I expect Ukrainian forces will continue to maintain pressure on Russian forces, not giving them a chance to recover.

As long as the enemy is “on the ropes” you keep punching. Or, as Gen Patton said: “Grab them by the nose and kick them in the a$$”.

Unless Putin starts something stupid, a stalemate during the winter is not going to be kind to the Ru Army.

As a soldier, I feel bad for those mujiks who will bear the brunt of the misery. Burdened with a non existent, corrupt support system.

[LFC]

More attrition in the south.

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent

⚡️Ukraine’s military destroys Russian equipment in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported that Ukrainian forces killed 18 Russian troops and destroyed three Msta-S and Msta-B howitzers, two tanks, and two armored vehicles on Sept. 22.

[LFC]

Russia is still trying to use the east bank of the Oskil River as their next defensive line in the north. It doesn't sound like it's going to work.

ISW
@thestudyofwar

#Russia has fallen back into a defensive position, trying to use the #Oskil River as a defensive barrier. But Ukrainians have already breached a few points along the river, and the area is “ripe for exploitation,” @thestudyofwar geospatial analyst @georgewbarros told @nytimes

It sounds like they may have already lost control.

[LFC]

More on Russia's dilemma of how to supply their troops when doing so by rail is clearly at constant risk, bordering on impossible. "Here are some more tanks fo...[BOOM!]"

[LFC]

Russia has a fool in overall command.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said– a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that these sources said hints at the dysfunctional command structure that has plagued Russia’s war from the beginning.

Intelligence intercepts have captured Russian officers arguing among themselves and complaining to friends and relatives back home about decision-making from Moscow, one of these sources told CNN.

And there are significant disagreements on strategy with military leaders struggling to agree on where to focus their efforts to shore up defensive lines, multiple sources familiar with US intelligence said.

Reminds me of a line delivered brilliantly by Raul Julia in the "Addams Family" movie: "They say a man who represents himself has a fool for a client. Well, with God as my witness, I am that fool!" 

[LFC]

Well that looks legit. I imagine Republicans are taking notes.

[LFC]

"Winter is coming", and the Russians aren't prepared for it.

Mykola Bielieskov
@mbielieskov

“This winter, Russian forces will face the same dilemma as German forces invading Russia in 1941, that is do you deliver ammunition and fuel or will it be food and clothes, because logistics will already be less robust,” said Mr. Bielieskov.

www.wsj.com/articles/facing-russian-mobilization-ukraine-holds-steady-to-maintain-momentum-11663925403

[LFC]

OH, SNAP!

That has to sting! Poor Pootie is being humiliated at every turn.

ian bremmer
@ianbremmer

china foreign minister meeting with his ukrainian counterpart at #unga, reaffirms china’s support for full ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China is looking to the future. Ukraine has grain that they'll be able to sell anywhere. Russia has oil and gas but will have fewer customers so will sell to China out of necessity. China knows a future trading partner versus semi-vassal state when they see them.

[andydp]

Sept 23, 2022 19:41:16 GMT LFC said:

"Winter is coming", and the Russians aren't prepared for it.

Mykola Bielieskov
@mbielieskov

“This winter, Russian forces will face the same dilemma as German forces invading Russia in 1941, that is do you deliver ammunition and fuel or will it be food and clothes, because logistics will already be less robust,” said Mr. Bielieskov.

www.wsj.com/articles/facing-russian-mobilization-ukraine-holds-steady-to-maintain-momentum-11663925403

See my comments above.

Besides the civilians who have lost so much, the lower ranks of the Ru Army will be suffering. Cold, damp weather is a Petri Dish for respiratory illnesses. It is also the most difficult weather to operate in.

Based on their track record in decent weather, I don’t want to guess what the logistics will be like.

[LFC]

More reports on Putin's gunpoint referendum here and here.

[LFC]

More on Supreme Commander Pootie.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

This @nytimes article about Putin taking even more direct control over battlefield decisions in the war and refusing to allow Russian forces to pull back to the east bank of the Dnipro, has overwhelming vibes of Hitler refusing to let the 6th Army pull back at Stalingrad.

Here's one of his awesome command decisions as he rearranges chairs on the Titanic.

Rob Lee
@ralee85

Deputy Defense Minister for logistics Army General Dmitry Bulgakov was replaced by Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the previous head of the MoD's National Defense Management Center.

And also this morale booster!

Francis Scarr
@francis_scarr

Putin has just signed off a law imposing jail sentences of up to 10 years for soldiers who surrender

[LFC]

The Russian Air Force seems to be a non-issue, other than as targets. They're scared to death to fly over Ukrainian held territory. That's a lot of money dumped into weapons that are ineffective.

The Ukrainian military says that paratroopers from the 25th Airborne Brigade shot down Su-25 and Su-30 (Su-30SM) aircraft today. The footage shows the Su-30SM.

The Ukrainian General Staff claims they destroyed a Su-25, two Su-30, a Su-34 (possibly in the above video), and 5 UAVs. Russian Telegram channels confirm it was a bad day for Russian aviation.

[LFC]

Well this is a different version of "take the money and run." Imagine if this gets around and Russian mid-level officers realize they can cash out and bolt a doomed cause.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@warmonitor3

Russian soldiers have recently sold several armoured vehicles to the Ukrainian army in Vyskopillya area.

The exchange reportedly happened earlier in the week without incidents.

Just crazy...

[LFC]

Ukraine is still on the offensive in Kharkiv that at a clearly slow, strategic pace. It appears they're setting up to get around Russian troops yet again. These troops are dug in on the east bank of the Oskil River which is great protection from attacks from the west but Ukraine appears to be coming in from both the north and south. If they get cut off with their backs to water they are totally f***ed.

Here Ukraine continues to nudge eastward at the north end of the Oskil.

Kup'yans'k

The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Petropavlivka and GSUA reported a shelling in the area of Podoly. This would indicate further AFU expansion of the Kup'yans'k bridgehead, contrary to what Ru channels claim. There is also local telegram chatter confirming this.

From the southerly end they have enough forces to be pushing in at 3 places. If you looks to the west of that blue triangle you'll see Izyum, a city that we were discussing not that long ago. Now that whole area is firmly in Ukrainian hands.

Lyman

RU channels talk about a RU counter attack around Nove and Karpivka and fights around Ridkodub.
Blue marker is geolocated video of UA forces filming a RU jet being shot down.
This made me move the RU line of control further north.

[LFC]

Russia is already just moving bodies around rather than using people strategically by their training. Green conscripts with two weeks of training and marginal equipment isn't going to make things better.

Showed me two images of sleeve patches found in Izium.
This first one belongs to 183 training center of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, military unit 22994

The second one belongs to
Plesetsk Cosmodrome (separate engineering and testing unit)

What are the strategic missile forces and a testing unit from Plesetsk Cosmodrome doing at the front lines you might ask? The answer is simple, cannon fodder.

[LFC]

Down in Kherson the Russians have given up building a temporary bridge across the Dnipro River.

CJ
@casualartyfan

ANTONOVOSKY, KHERSON: After months of building a temporary bridge next to the one damaged by GMLRS, Russia is scrapping their plans entirely. More barge segments for other crossing points? A withdrawal across the Dnipro River? Who knows…

[LFC]

Ukraine continues to show its superiority in cyber and PR warfare.

[LFC]

More posts on Ukraine's offensive moves up north. Lyman is in their sites along with a lot of Russians still there.

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |
@chuckpfarrer

LYMAN/1430 UTC 25 SEP/ UKR forces have prosecuted a multi-pronged attack to isolate and dislodge RU troops occupying the important rail junction at Lyman. UKR has crossed and cut the O-0527 HWY near Drobysheve. UKR air defense is reported to have downed an Su-34 strike fighter.

Apparently Russia has made Lyman a red line for its troops to defend. That's unfortunate for those men who are in the process of being surrounded.

Michael MacKay
@mhmck

The russian fascist invaders have made a fatal decision to defend Lyman at all costs.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are engaged in offensives to trap the rashists in Lyman and liberate the north of Luhansk region. They're pushing the front towards Lunansk and no Russian "referendum" is going to change that.

[LFC]

Another report on fighting around Lyman. Once Ukraine controls this area they'll have a rail line that runs right along the front. That's damn convenient. It's also pretty clear that they control the southern end of the Oskil River / Reservoir. There's a whole lot of squeezin' goin' on.

War Mapper
@war_Mapper

Updates:

🇺🇦 have continued to advance north of Lyman, taken back control of Rubtsi and Lozove, and entered Novoselivka.

It is unclear how far they have been able to advance, there is reportedly fighting ongoing around Karpivka, Ridkodub, and Nove.

[LFC]

I'm no military expert but it seems that this rank is a bit low for commanding an engineering assault battalion. From what I can discern that put him in command of anywhere from several hundred on up to 1,000 troops who would be expected to be using pretty specialized techniques and equipment.

[LFC]

From the Russia thread (conscripting men) to the Ukraine thread (deploying them in battle). If this is true it's utter insanity as Russia simply tries to build a wall of dead and soon to be dead bodies.

[LFC]

Sounds like Russia is another general down.

Rob Lee
@ralee85

The Ukrainian General Staff claims that Major General Oleg Tsokov, the commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, was wounded near Svatove.

[LFC]

Analysis of Russia's upcoming strategy. The gist is that it won't work in today's modern warfare. Troops aren't facing single shot, inaccurate, slow to reload muskets anymore.

This Russian mobilization is a pretty clear attempt to use mass to stem the metaphorical bleeding on the battlefield through mass, but this is very unlikely to work. A (short) thread on mass:

Mass or concentration is probably the most common principle of war. It's commonly said quantity has a quality all its own. And it does, but that mass has to be used somehow.

Throwing every able-bodied male in uniform and shipping them out can get you units, but they can't get your capable units. Especially in modern warfare where physically-massing ground forces isn't a strength but a liability.

It used to be you could get away with this. For example in 1793 the French Revolutionary armies were faltering, so France launched the first levée en masse, putting 800,000 men into uniform within a year. That worked.

But that was a time when units still literally fought in massed formations. Mass indeed had a quality all its own because mass and combat power had a direct relationship.

That direct relationship no longer exists. These days, it's more about the quality of the troops and the planning, coordination, and sustainment of the tactics they employ over time. The operational art.

It's in the operational art where Russia has truly failed, ironic since it was Russian theorists who absolutely pioneered operational theory. But its Ukraine that has mastered this art, and matched it with the professional officer, SNCO, and NCO corps that really fuel it.