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Post by LFC on Sept 30, 2022 18:40:50 GMT
The current situation for Russians in Lyman is deteriorating quickly.
That hardly means it's a breeze for Ukraine. Just the opposite as distance will disappear.
The Russians have almost no escape route left. It does appear that they're trying to get out now. Now the question is home many will escape, how many will be destroyed trying to escape, and what happens to any who can't escape. Remember that Putin demanded they fight until the bitter end. It sounds like "the bitter end" is pretty much here. |
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Post by LFC on Sept 30, 2022 18:43:44 GMT
Here's hoping. I feel badly for the Russian conscripts who aren't committing war crimes but AFAIC the death of each and every member of the Wagner Group is a cause for celebration, and that's doubly true if they're in a senior leadership position.
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Post by LFC on Sept 30, 2022 18:48:59 GMT
As Russia finally wakes up to the fact that they shouldn't leave their shit lying around in the open, longer range targets may be shifting from equipment and supplies to troops. As new concentrations of conscripts appear the U.S. is helping Ukraine prepare. Somebody likened it to a massive, medium-range shotgun. As if dealing with a supposed 300,000 conscripts wasn't going to be insane enough for the totally unprepared Russian military, now they'll have to keep them all in relatively small, well spaced groups? Yeah, good luck with that. |
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Post by LFC on Oct 1, 2022 18:42:10 GMT
Lyman has fallen.
Ukraine had a few words for Russia.
I read that reports make it sound like Russian troops ran rather than executing an early, safer, escape or a fighting retreat. It sounds like it may have been a bloodbath with Russians being chased down in some areas and blown up with shells and HIMARS in others. Putin wanted them to stay in Lyman "at all costs" and it sound like many paid just that.
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Post by LFC on Oct 1, 2022 18:44:19 GMT
Cheezes. Remember that Russia's plan was to simply outlast Ukraine because they had more manpower and equipment. That's strategy ain't gonna' work with disparate loss rates like this.
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Post by LFC on Oct 1, 2022 20:15:20 GMT
Sounding more and more like Russia's withdrawal was chaos. Didn't realize or didn't care? |
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Post by LFC on Oct 1, 2022 20:19:19 GMT
Several analysts are noting that compared to the initial Kharkiv offensive, where Ukraine had an element of surprise, the battle of Lyman was a clear victory over Russia in terms of strategy and fighting. Russia is getting their ass handed to them and it's highly doubtful that they have anybody in the pipeline who could gain control, especially with Putin repeatedly taking control of the "strategy" on the battlefields. |
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Oct 2, 2022 2:47:10 GMT
it's highly doubtful that they have anybody in the pipeline who could gain control, especially with Putin repeatedly taking control of the "strategy" on the battlefields. Wasn't that one of the problems with Germany in WWII where Hitler would interfere with his military leaders and force his "strategy" with less than successful results, like dropping bombs on the beach that tended to blow upwards in the sand instead of outwards for maximal kills? |
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Post by indy on Oct 2, 2022 14:47:24 GMT
Sounding more and more like Russia's withdrawal was chaos. Didn't realize or didn't care? Reports seem to indicate that Lyman was pretty bad for the Russians with a very large number of dead and injured. I've read a few reports from some Americans who are there and it sounds pretty horrific with bodies everywhere. |
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 17:02:30 GMT
Reports seem to indicate that Lyman was pretty bad for the Russians with a very large number of dead and injured. I've read a few reports from some Americans who are there and it sounds pretty horrific with bodies everywhere. A few recent reports indicate that Russia may have lost thousands, not including POWs.
They also continued to resupply Ukraine. Now it makes sense why they stored their ammunition in large stockpiles that were vulnerable. They literally don't have the trucks to properly handle multiple smaller, less vulnerable stockpiles. As a result when they retreated the Ukrainians are just picking them up. And once nobody even tried to blow them up on their way out.
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 17:22:46 GMT
From TPM's chat room. Putin keeps digging in, screwing up, and STILL refuses to retreat to a more easily defensible line. There doesn't seem to be any ability to figure out where and how to make a stand. On top of that Putin seems to think a strategic retreat is still an unacceptable retreat and he's clearly only interested in the short game, even though he keeps losing that game.
I read an analysis that said the Ukrainians likely let the Russians escape Lyman rather than going into the city due to mines and difficult building to building fighting. Then they shelled the shit out of the Russians as they tried to get away down a very limited escape route. Absolutely brutal, and very, very smart. Russians take similar casualties as if Ukraine went into the city and Ukraine takes vastly less. Russia hasn't shown any sign that they're able to fight this intelligently.
Look at that the Oskil River, that long section of water running from Kupiansk up north to Borova further south. Only two weeks or so ago Russia held the entire east bank and were digging in there. Now Ukraine controls both the northern and southern ends with troops moving up from Lyman and behind the Russian lines. If they pull another Lyman, and under Putin's now direct command they very well might, they'll get encircled and trapped just like we've now seen several times.
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 17:32:25 GMT
Meanwhile, down south in Kherson, things continue to be deteriorating for Russia. It's just staggering to me that, once again, Russia is allowing their troops to be pinned down (in this case up against the Dnipro River) without the ability to send reinforcements, to provide supplies, and with no escape route. It feels like suicidal rinse, wash, repeat.
These are translations of soldiers' posts in Telegram confirming movement by Ukraine down the west bank of the Dnipro River. As the translator says, posts in smaller (i.e. less monitored) channels tend to be more truthful. I imagine Moscow watches the main boards to make sure they can do whatever is possible to clean them up of reality.
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 17:41:04 GMT
The one place where Russia continues to be the aggressor is Bakhmut, just northwest of Donetsk and in the center portion of the line, a move that all analysis seems to state is strategically meaningless and is just racking up massive casualties for them.
Here's a map of the whole line. Look at Donetsk and realize that Bakhmut is just to the NW. So if Russia managed to break through their they'd create a small bulge that would instantly be surrounded on 3 sides while having no strategic target to move towards.
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Post by goldenvalley on Oct 2, 2022 17:51:14 GMT
What is the breaking point for Putin? The one that either leads to someone overthrowing him or leads to him unleashing nukes? I fear we are going to find out sooner rather than later.
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Post by indy on Oct 2, 2022 18:15:58 GMT
What is the breaking point for Putin? The one that either leads to someone overthrowing him or leads to him unleashing nukes? I fear we are going to find out sooner rather than later. I for one do not make the assumption that bringing Putin down will result in some sort of easing of the situation in Ukraine. I think the probability is much higher that a coup will result in an even more extreme hardliner. |
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 18:38:50 GMT
What is the breaking point for Putin? The one that either leads to someone overthrowing him or leads to him unleashing nukes? I fear we are going to find out sooner rather than later. I for one do not make the assumption that bringing Putin down will result in some sort of easing of the situation in Ukraine. I think the probability is much higher that a coup will result in an even more extreme hardliner. It's certainly possible that the person to take out Putin would be a hardliner but if they're remotely smart they should pull back, blame it all on Putin (like Putin blames the generals despite the fact he's in control), and then tell the Russian people they had to pull back to repair all the damage Putin did and pick up in the future. Burying Putin under a heap of blame would be crucial. Quadrupling down on a failed war they aren't prepare to escalation wouldn't help their position.
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 19:28:56 GMT
Shit, things are still happening quickly. Up north Ukrainian troops are reportedly pushing both southwest of the Oskil River and northeast towards the city of Svatove, where Russians were apparently attempting to form some kind of defensive line as well as provide support for their troops along the Oskil. Russia may soon be losing another mass of troops up north. |
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 19:30:34 GMT
Things are happening just to the north of Kherson where Ukraine appears to have made a breakthrough.
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 19:40:59 GMT
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 20:15:17 GMT
" On social media." Holy crap, they are so f***ed. I wonder how ready Ukraine is for that air support. They've had a lot of time to prepare. They may be licking their chops at the very thought. |
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Post by indy on Oct 2, 2022 21:22:25 GMT
I for one do not make the assumption that bringing Putin down will result in some sort of easing of the situation in Ukraine. I think the probability is much higher that a coup will result in an even more extreme hardliner. It's certainly possible that the person to take out Putin would be a hardliner but if they're remotely smart they should pull back, blame it all on Putin (like Putin blames the generals despite the fact he's in control), and then tell the Russian people they had to pull back to repair all the damage Putin did and pick up in the future. Burying Putin under a heap of blame would be crucial. Quadrupling down on a failed war they aren't prepare to escalation wouldn't help their position. Well, of course that is also possible but even assuming this happens, it will not be long before there will be agitation to avenge their wounded pride. OK, so you regrouped, they will say, now show that you have the guts to avenge us. So there may be a reprieve but can the Russian national psyche swallow a defeat to the poorest country in Europe? It just seems so unlikely to me. |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Ukraine
Oct 2, 2022 22:26:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by andydp on Oct 2, 2022 22:26:26 GMT
I said this in an earlier post. The Ukrainians are not meeting any kind of resistance or obstacles. The only assumption for THAT sector is the Russians have collapsed. |
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Post by LFC on Oct 2, 2022 23:46:56 GMT
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Post by indy on Oct 3, 2022 0:39:44 GMT
I can explain it. They never existed except on paper and the money was used for vodka and dachas instead.
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Post by indy on Oct 3, 2022 0:41:55 GMT
[SHIT! SOMEHOW I EDITED INDY'S POST (ADMIN PRIVILEGES ALLOWED IT) INSTEAD OF REPLYING. SINCEREST APOLOGIES!]To flesh this out a little further and explain what I think the end game is, I think hands are forced at this point and Ukraine has no choice except to join NATO and NATO has no choice except to allow it. I remember several people noting that Putin was a lot less worried about Ukraine joining NATO than the EU, something that was likely to happen before his war. They are were a huge semi-trapped market for Russia's goods which aren't exactly very competitive on the global market.
I think you're right about NATO just because they'll want to secure Ukraine's grain and Black Sea shipping. Putin has really made a mess of everything he wants or Russia depends upon.
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