Ukraine

[LFC]

Things continue to move fast in Kherson. BTW "right bank" means the western bank. Russian troops there are f***ed. Putin may soon be dealing with a massive loss of men and equipment plus Crimea becomes more and more vulnerable.

Business Ukraine mag
@biz_Ukraine_Mag

Reports are mounting of a Russian collapse on the Kherson front, where approximately 25,000 Russian troops are trapped on the right bank of the Dnipro River with bridges across the river partially destroyed and unable to support military vehicles

[LFC]

Once again Russian troops look like they're going to be encircled and slaughtered all due to Vladimir Putin's orders that nobody retreats. He's a regular master of military strategy.

Michael MacKay
@mhmck

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are enveloping a large Russian fascist invasion army in the north of Kherson region.

The advance of Ukrainian forces down the T-04-03 road towards Beryslav is rapid. The rashists are immobilized by "no retreat" orders and are in a hopeless position.

So much for Putin as an "evil genius." Like Trump he is simply a psychopath who doesn't believe in any rules applying to him. This war shows he'd actually pretty dumb.

[LFC]

This map shows where many of Russia's forces are and how they're being encircled. It's starting to feel like and endless loop tape and Putin just can't up with any response other than "fight to the death!"

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24

Apart from pressing south along the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian Army is also advancing from the West, having reached the village of Chkalove.

The Russian forces are once again under threat of encirclement as the Ukrainians go for another pincer maneuver.

[LFC]

These are very rough translations but the gist is that it sounds like Russia's special forces are withdrawing from positions in Kherson and taking their heavy equipment with them. There seems to be a lot of chatter that the whole Russian situation is one of confusion, chaos, and panic.

The big question is, where the hell are they going to go with their tanks? The bridges are all either completely blown or there may be one or two badly damaged bridges that would allow men to escape but probably not heavy equipment, at least not all in one convoy. If the heavy equipment is backed up at the bridges the Ukrainians will bomb the shit out of the head of the column and that will be that. I suspect Russia is days from men simply sprinting across any semi-intact bridge, if they can find one, or swimming for it. Or dying.

[LFC]

There seems to be multiple analyst opinions that the Russian Army may be on the verge of collapse. They are bearing crushing defeats, they are burning through heavy equipment at a massive rate, their supply lines are even worse off with the fall of Lyman and they were already in terrible shape, they don't have the industrial capacity to replace what they're losing from tanks to blankets, Putin continues to control operations and fail, and conscription has been a complete cluster-f***.

H.R. McMaster has the same opinion.

Former Trump National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster determined that the situation grows increasingly desperate for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that the Russian army might be on the verge of “collapse.”

McMaster joined CBS’ Margaret Brennan on Face The Nation to discuss the news that Russian forces withdrew from the Ukrainian city of Lyman after months of occupation. The Associated Press described the development as a significant setback for Russia, and McMaster predicted this “tremendous victory” for Ukraine’s counteroffensive will be followed by others.

“It’s a victory that I think that they could turn into a cascading series of defeats of Russian forces,” McMaster explained. “This is the encirclement of Lyman and the Russian forces pulling back, but also, in the last two days, the Ukrainians also simultaneously defeated a Russian counterattack and also made progress further in the south near the strategically important city of Kherson.”

Given these setbacks for the Russians, Moscow’s attempts to conscript people into their armed forces, and the discontent within the ranks, McMaster suggested that the Russian army could wind up falling apart.

I think, Margaret, what we might be at here is really at the precipice of — of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, a moral collapse. I think they must really be at a breaking point. If you look at just the numbers of casualties, the vast area that they’re trying to defend, and now, of course, Russia is trying to mobilize conscripts and send them to the front untrained. And I think it’s very important to also understand that these forces that are in full retreat now out of Lyman were really the first round of mobilization. Remember when Putin was trying to recruit more and more people with paying about three times the average wages to get so-called volunteers to go forward. Those forces were hastily trained, thrown into that front, and these are the forces that are collapsing just right right now.

[LFC]

Things sounds like they're still deteriorating quickly in the north as well.

WhereisRussiaToday
@whereisrussia

DEVELOPING:
Multiple Russian Telegram sources are claiming that Ukrainian forces have broken through the Russian defensive line near the city of Svatove.

So far some of the best early intel about conditions on the ground seems to be coming from Russian soldiers on Telegram. The fact that I just typed that feels ... insane.

[LFC]

Oct 3, 2022 15:11:07 GMT LFC said:

These are very rough translations but the gist is that it sounds like Russia's special forces are withdrawing from positions in Kherson and taking their heavy equipment with them. There seems to be a lot of chatter that the whole Russian situation is one of confusion, chaos, and panic.

The big question is, where the hell are they going to go with their tanks? The bridges are all either completely blown or there may be one or two badly damaged bridges that would allow men to escape but probably not heavy equipment, at least not all in one convoy. If the heavy equipment is backed up at the bridges the Ukrainians will bomb the shit out of the head of the column and that will be that. I suspect Russia is days from men simply sprinting across any semi-intact bridge, if they can find one, or swimming for it. Or dying.

A better translation from a TPM subscriber who speaks the language.

The auto translation translated anti-armor artillery as tanks, so the SpetzNaz is staying to death with anti-armor artillery, awaiting the Ukrainians’ tanks, while the Russian tanks leave.

However, while the quoted text is cut off, it looks like this same thing happened a month ago and the soldiers ordered or heroically offering to stand to the death sensibly decided to run.

It looks like is Russia is about to donate some anti-armor artillery to Ukraine’s counter-offensive.

[LFC]

I'm starting to wonder if our investment in Ukraine will be worth it, at least in part, just for all of the delicious access the U.S. getting to all sorts of weapons systems. We've already seen that a number of top tech items from Russia have been captured intact but now the U.S. will be getting in depth looks at Iranian drone technology. It's interesting that Iran labels everything in English. One TPM commenter guessed it might be for the export market.

[LFC]

Ukrainian troops are entering Borova. Look at this map I posted yesterday to see the northern progress along the Oskil River and remember this is where a number of Russian troops decided to create a defensive line. Ukraine is still pushing down from Kupyansk to the north and up from multiple points in the south. Their only real escape route is one road to Svatove and that's increasingly at risk. If they don't get out of Dodge soon it's going to be déjà vu all over again.

[LFC]

More updates on the front. This is from the Oskil River / Lyman areas. It won't be referred to as the Lyman area for long. If you look at the blue arrow second to the bottom it shows the front is now in Dibrova, about 14 miles east of Lyman. Basically the northern front is driving hard towards and even into Luhansk Oblast or, as Putin likes to call it, Russia.

Lyman
The AFU liberated Borova♥️, Shyikivka, Izyums'ke and Druzhelyubivka.
Borova makes me especially happy since I've been reading their telegram feed since early May.

Meanwhile down in Kherson there appears to be a lot of chatter that the Russians have abandoned Dudchany. The squeeze is on. If the report of tanks leaving Kherson city are true then who knows where these forces will end up clashing. I'd also be interested to know exactly how many Russian troops are looking to get trapped in that northern pocket.

Kherson north.

I have seen a lot of evidence of a AFU advance down to the Dudchany area. I find the reports believable.

Things are starting to look "not great" for the RuAF in the northern parts of the Kherson region.

[indy]

Oct 3, 2022 0:41:55 GMT indy said:

[SHIT! SOMEHOW I EDITED INDY'S POST (ADMIN PRIVILEGES ALLOWED IT) INSTEAD OF REPLYING. SINCEREST APOLOGIES!]

LOL. Don't worry about it; I have nearly done the same thing multiple times. After the third or fourth near miss, I considered posting a preemptive apology because I was certain it would happen at some point.

They should make the 'Edit' button red if you are not the author.

[LFC]

More on the reported fall of Dudchany.

Dmitri
@wartranslated

Russian source claims Dydchany has been liberated: "The Russian army left Dudchany on the Southern Front. There are no reinforcements. The situation is critical."

As one post pointed out, if that's true it only lasted two days. Ukraine is pushing Russia so hard and fast that they have no time to erect reasonably effective defenses.

[LFC]

With all the losses that Russia is taking in both the north and south it's painfully obvious that there's no help coming. Russia simply doesn't have the bodies available and/or the means to move them. They're on their own.

Jack Detsch
@jackdetsch

NEW: U.S. has not seen a large-scale movement of Russian forces despite battlefield losses to Ukraine in the east and south of the country: senior U.S. military official

[LFC]

FFS, I wish billionaires would learn their f***ing limits. Elon Musk is now proposing a peace plan. It sure sounds like a pretty shitty deal for Ukraine where they get to both definitely give up territory (Crimea), risk giving up all 4 annexed oblasts (after "elections"), and promise not to join with allies that can help them protect themselves. Other than the risking a vote by the 4 oblasts to stay in Ukraine Russia gives up nothing. What a deal!

Elon Musk
@elonmusk

Ukraine-Russia Peace:

- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.

- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).

- Water supply to Crimea assured.

- Ukraine remains neutral.

Here's one alternative offered in response to Musk.

Paul Massaro
@apmassaro3
Replying to @elonmusk

Ukraine-Russia Peace:

- Ukraine liberates all its sovereign territory

- Russia decolonizes, demilitarizes, and denuclearizes

The reactions coming from Russia and Ukraine differ.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

The most interesting thing about the reaction to Elon Musk’s peace plan might be what it says about Russian and Ukrainian views of how the war is going. Russian media broadcast news of Musk’s ideas without criticism.

Whereas in Ukraine there is universal condemnation, which has even reached to Zelensky.

In other words, the Ukrainians are convinced that they will do much better than Musk’s plans, while the Russians aren’t rejecting it.

[LFC]

Huh? Maybe AndyP can translate.

[andydp]

Oct 3, 2022 23:00:15 GMT LFC said:

Huh? Maybe AndyP can translate.

Not even going to try. They’re using Russian graphics for one. Some decent commentary on the Twitter thread.

[LFC]

Ukraine continues to run out-think Russian military leadership. Russia had no idea what enemy they were making.

Oliver Carroll
@olliecarroll

Interesting. Russian military bloggers confirming previous information that Ukrainians used widespread deception — including using Russian identifying marks Z and V on vehicles — to penetrate deep behind Russian lines in Kherson.

As they've admitted Russia can't keep track of the borders they claim to have annexed. How the hell are they going to tell the difference between their troops and their enemy's troops without clear markings?

[LFC]

Ukraine is sooooo petty. They just can't get over all those pesky war crimes, land grabs, and nuclear threats.

Illia Ponomarenko🫡
@iaponomarenko

Ukraine has officially declared that any sort of negotiations with Vladimir Putin of Russia is impossible

[LFC]

Ouch.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

Just fascinated that seven months into the supposed to be awesome Russian invasion of Ukraine, the dominating discussion is whether Ukraine is winning so much it’s embarrassing for Putin.

Alex
@osat8867
Replying to
@phillipspobrien

Funny that some prominent folk have started talking about the need for ceasefire and 'peaceful solutions' right when Russia is getting whipped across multiple fronts, isn't it.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

Date   Vehicles     Tanks       Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks
5/27:  4150 (+475)  733 (+62)  13 weeks
6/02:  4207  (+57)  747 (+14)  14 weeks
6/09:  4273  (+66)  762 (+15)  15 weeks
--
7/05:  4573 (+200)  830 (+68)  19 weeks
7/12:  4683 (+110)  865 (+35)  20 weeks
7/19:  4738  (+45)  869  (+4)  21 weeks
7/26:  4822  (+84)  887 (+18)  22 weeks
8/02:  5038 (+216)  922 (+35)  23 weeks
8/09:  5103  (+65)  930  (+8)  24 weeks
8/16:  5200  (+97)  952 (+22)  25 weeks
8/23:  5321 (+121)  970 (+18)  26 weeks
8/30:  5362  (+41)  988 (+18)  27 weeks
9/07:  5554 (+192) 1022 (+34)  28 weeks (one day late)
9/13:  5907 (+353) 1087 (+65)  29 weeks
9/20:  6202 (+295) 1155 (+68)  30 weeks
9/27:  6395 (+193) 1182 (+27)  31 weeks
10/04: 6684 (+289) 1250 (+68)  32 weeks

Since August 30, maybe a week before Ukraine starting making major moves up north, Russia lost over 260 tanks and over 1,500 pieces of heavy equipment.  And those are just the confirmed numbers.

I really wish I was tracking captured equipment all along. That number would be interesting to watch over time.

[LFC]

Four hours? This is a rout. Maybe they're going to try to make a combined defensive stand somewhere right now they're just in outright retreat.

This is a good illustration. The Russians have abandoned their entire norther position. That white area to the northeast is where Ukraine has to catch up to them. Looking along the Dnipro River Ukrain has gained 7-10 miles depending upon whose reports you believe, but 7 seems like the minimu.

Russian forces may be trying to regroup along the Dnipro in Mylove, just SW of the Ukrainian line in the above map. Yeah, good luck with that.

Rob Lee
@ralee85

A Russian channel is saying that Russian forces have regrouped in Mylove from Dudchany, Kherson Oblast.

Illia Ponomarenko🫡
@iaponomarenko

Good lord, Russian front is apparently collapsing in the south.
I just can’t keep up with reports on newly-liberated towns coming every other hour.

[LFC]

A few general notes from the Institute for the Study of War. First, the current victories are over the best that Russia has ... had. These aren't recent conscripts slammed in as cannon fodder.

As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. This phenomenon was also visible in the collapse of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army earlier in the Kharkiv counter-offensive.

Second, Putin appears to be playing the blame game to the hilt.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be continuing efforts to redirect blame for recent Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian outlet РБК (RBK), citing sources within the Russian regime, reported on October 3 that Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov has replaced Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlev as commander of the Western Military District (WMD).[7] As ISW previously assessed, WMD units have been largely operating in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast over the last few months but without a clear commander. Zhuravlev has not been seen for some time, and Putin cycled through two commanders of the “western grouping of forces" in two weeks. Putin may be attempting to redirect the growing anger for Russian losses in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman by assigning a new face prominently to the WMD.[8] This announcement may also be an effort to shield Colonel General Alexander Lapin, commander of the Central Military District (CMD), from widespread criticism for recent Russian failures around Lyman.[9] Putin may seek to shift the blame for future Russian losses in Kharkiv and possibly Luhansk Oblasts to Berdnikov. Criticism of Lapin in recent days has served as a catalyst for wider breakdown within the Russian nationalist information space, and Berdnikov’s appointment may be intended to distract and redirect that growing dissatisfaction.

Scapegoating military leaders is a dangerous game in Russia. If you pick off a few you'll likely be OK but if it goes too far and the remaining leaders feel vulnerable then, well, they actually have the troops.

[LFC]

The Russian view on why their defense of Kherson is failing. No mention of the fact that Russia allowed the troops to be trapped over a month ago and have their supply lines beaten to shit ever since.

A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson:

1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade)

2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.

He says Ukraine conducted reconnaissance and found the weak spots in the lines and that Russia didn't have the mobile reserves to plug the holes. He also says that the weather prevented air support and neither side used artillery particularly heavily.

3) He says Ukrainian units painted "V" and "Z" markers on their vehicles which confused Russian forces. He suggests this means Ukraine has a C2/tracking system in all of their vehicles.

[LFC]

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@warmonitor3

Russian source
"Avoiding the emerging encirclement, the RF Armed Forces withdrew along the entire front of the Ingulets River to the east of the previously captured enemy bridgehead on the indicated river."

If that's true, it tells us two things. One, at least part of the Russian Army is smartening up and using strategic retreat to prevent from getting obliterated. And two, looking at an earlier map and see the position of the Inhulets River, their desire to hold onto the city of Kherson is doomed.

[LFC]

44 tanks in one day? That giant flushing sound is Russia's military.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

Quite a claim today--Ukraine saying that yesterday they accounted for 44 lost Russian tanks.