Ukraine

[LFC]

Love him, hate him, or don't really care about him, Elon Musk has helped the Ukrainian war effort.

SpaceX's Starlink Internet is proving to be useful for Ukraine's military as it fights the Russian invasion. In an article Friday titled, "Elon Musk's Starlink helping Ukraine to win the drone war," The Telegraph described how the satellite connection helps the Ukrainian army's Aerorozvidka (Aerial Reconnaissance) unit do its work of "using surveillance and attack drones to target Russian tanks and positions."

The Telegraph wrote:

Amid Internet and power outages, which are expected to get worse, Ukraine is turning to the newly available Starlink system for some of its communications. Drone teams in the field, sometimes in badly connected rural areas, are able to use Starlink to connect them to targeters and intelligence on their battlefield database. They can direct the drones to drop anti-tank munitions, sometimes flying up silently to Russian forces at night as they sleep in their vehicles.

The Ukrainian unit's "most sophisticated drones are connected using Starlink," The Times of London wrote. "If we use a drone with thermal vision at night, the drone must connect through Starlink to the artillery guy and create target acquisition," an Aerorozvidka officer told the paper.

The Times wrote that Aerorozvidka "has been picking off tanks, command trucks, and vehicles carrying electronic equipment since the invasion began," destroying dozens of "priority targets."

"We strike at night, when Russians sleep," unit commander Yaroslav Honchar told The Times.

[andydp]

This could go in Russia thread too but here's good enough.

Ukraine Is Changing the World Order, Just Not How Putin Hoped

(Bloomberg) -- Two days after President Vladimir Putin sent his armed forces into Ukraine, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published an article that assumed imminent victory. It celebrated “a new era,” marked by the end of Western domination, the severing of bonds between the U.S. and continental Europe and the return of Russia to its rightful “space and place” in the world.

Rather than split from the U.S., NATO’s European members have cleaved to it. Rather than shrink to its pre-expansion size of the 1990s — as Putin demanded before his invasion — the alliance is positioning more personnel on its frontiers. NATO has sent about an additional 3,000 troops to its eastern flank, as well as helicopters, tanks and fighter jets, to deter any potential Kremlin decision to expand the battlefield.

“No matter how this war turns out — and as cynical as it sounds now — historians will say that Putin’s attack on Ukraine gave Europe the time it needed to recover so it could confront Russia and, further down the road, China,” said General Richard Barrons, a former commander of the U.K.’s Joint Forces Command. “Ukraine is paying a high price to buy us time.”


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-is-changing-the-world-order-just-not-how-putin-hoped/ar-AAVn87r?ocid=msedgntp

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/17 : 1550 (236) 19.7%

3/18 : 1574 (244) 20.3%

3/19 : --

3/20 : 1616 (254) 21.7%

3/21 : 1662 (263) 21.9%

3/22 : 1676 (268) 22.3%

3/23 : 1721 (271) 22.6%

I saw a government official quoted today saying that Russia has lost about 10% of its troops and that they are having serious resupply issues.

[LFC]

If true then this is incredible. The Russian army is falling apart.

‘It’s a Sh*tshow’: Russian Troops Are Now Turning on Each Other

“Even in Chechnya, there was nothing like this,” a soldier tells friend in an intercepted call, as reports emerge of another getting so fed up he ran over his colonel with a tank.

Two Russian soldiers have been caught venting about Putin’s “bullshit” war against Ukraine in an intercepted phone call as devastating losses reportedly led one soldier to drive over his colonel with a tank.

“Basically, it’s a shitshow here, I’ll put it that way,” an unnamed soldier near Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine can be heard telling a colleague in a recording released by Ukraine’s Security Service late Tuesday.

After telling his friend that Ukrainian forces “tore apart” a column of Russian forces sent along with his own unit, he described complete disarray among the Russian military, with 50 percent of the unit suffering from frostbite on their feet.

“But they don’t plan to treat them in the [field] hospital,” he said.

On the fourth day of their deployment, he said, the general commanding the unit, General-Lieutenant Yakov Rezantsev, told them it’d be over quickly.

“Do you know what he told us? ‘It’s no secret to anyone that there are only a few hours until this special operation is over.’ And now those hours are still going.”

He said soldiers are complaining about having Kevlar vests that lack the hard-armor panel, but they are ignored.

“‘Comrade General, damn it, I have this situation,’” he recalled troops telling their leader. “And he just says, ‘Son, be strong,’ and then he fucks off. It’s such trash here… our own plane dropped a bomb on us,” he said.

“They couldn’t even send off the 200s here,” he said, using a Russian military term for dead bodies. “They rode with us for five days.”

“Even in Chechnya, there was nothing like this,” he said, describing the situation as a “madhouse.”

“This ‘special operation,’ damnit… with respect to homes not meant to be destroyed… it’s bullshit.”

Even though “on TV” they said the Russian troops were advancing, they were actually surrounded “on all sides” by Ukrainian forces, he said.

[andydp]

Mar 23, 2022 15:10:50 GMT LFC said:

If true then this is incredible. The Russian army is falling apart.

‘It’s a Sh*tshow’: Russian Troops Are Now Turning on Each Other

Two things:  please note the source of the intercepted conversation.  Next: if you're a Vet, you can readily recognize this as "GI Griping" or, as commonly referred to: a "B^%#h Session".  

If this is corroborated by someone outside of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, then I might believe SOME of it. 

[indy]

Some of this rings true. Frostbite does appear to be a problem (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-troops-ukraine-frostbite-inadequate-cold-weather-gear-us-2022-3). If, for example, it is true that there are no trains running between Belarus and Ukraine (as Belarus has acknowledged) then shipping the dead back home is really problematic for any of the units to the NW of Kyiv. Are you gonna tie up trucks and personnel and clog the few already overwhelmed roadways? In addition, there is lots of videos of Ukrainians collecting up dead Russian soldiers and dumping them in bomb craters because they were left behind.

Now, whether Ukrainian intelligence have gathered up these reports and concocted a conversation, I have no idea but kudos to them if they did, because it was a great job.

[indy]

You know, come to think of it, in all the photos and videos I've seen, I don't recall seeing any sort of Russian medical vehicles. I wonder if they were so convinced it was going to be a cakewalk they didn't properly prepare for casualties.

[LFC]

Mar 23, 2022 12:48:00 GMT LFC said:

Equipment destruction update:

The numbers keep rising, and not in tiny increments.

3/18 : 1574 (244) 20.3%

3/19 : --

3/20 : 1616 (254) 21.7%

3/21 : 1662 (263) 21.9%

3/22 : 1676 (268) 22.3%

3/23 : 1721 (271) 22.6%

3/24 : 1785 (280) 23.3%

I saw a report this AM that Ukrainian troops had pushed the Russians back nearly 30 miles. They had been basically on Kyiv's doorstep and now their 34 miles back and taking defensive rather than offensive positions. Putin must be losing his shit.

[indy]

Add a Russian ship to that total. Two others were reported damaged but were able to steam away under their own power.

[LFC]

There are reports that Russian troops have been pushed back from Kyiv. If true they aren't just being stalled, they're being defeated at least on one very important front.

Russian troops face major setback east of Kyiv and moving into defensive positions

In a significant movement, Ukraine's military forces have pushed back Russian forces east of Kyiv to 55 kilometers from the city center, according to a senior defense official.

For weeks, and as recently as Tuesday, Russian forces have been kept at bay approximately 20 to 30 kilometers from the center of the capital city.

The official said that Ukrainian forces near Bovary "have been able to push the Russians back to about 55 kilometers east and northeast of Kyiv."

The ability to push back Russian forces nearly twice as far as where they had been for weeks is in line with what the official had said on Tuesday were indications that in some areas Ukrainian forces were attempting to retake territory taken by Russia. "Ukrainians are not only in some of these places up sufficiently defending they're going on the offense in some of these places and actually pushing the Russians backwards, or in the case of Kiev, they're, they're basically forcing them into a defensive position," the official said Wednesday.

The U.S. now assesses that Russian troops that have been stalled 12 to 15 kilometers north of the city are "digging in" and establishing defensive positions according to the official. "They're forcing them into a defensive position" the official told reporters on Wednesday. "So it's not that they're not advancing, they're actually not trying to advance right now," said the official. "They're taking more defensive positions."

[indy]

[LFC]

In addition to the destruction of a Russian ship the port has been damaged. It's been reported that it was taken out by a ballistic missile which means the Ukrainians have mid to long range attack capabilities. They just appear to be using them strategically.

[LFC]

WTF?

[LFC]

Biden's State Department straight out accused Russia of war crimes. Nice to see them state the obvious rather than having to watch Trump and is cronies fawn all over Putin as they mouth his propaganda like puppets.

The U.S. government is officially declaring that Russian military forces, led by President Vladimir Putin, have committed war crimes in Ukraine by hitting civilian targets, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday.

The attacks on Ukraine have been ongoing for nearly a month and have resulted in nearly 5,000 civilian causalities, the statement said. Russian troops have targeted areas where civilians are present, including apartment buildings, schools and hospitals.

"Last week, I echoed President Biden's statement, based on the countless accounts and images of destruction and suffering we have all seen, that war crimes had been committed by Putin's forces in Ukraine," Blinken said in a statement.

"Today, I can announce that, based on information currently available, the U.S. government assesses that members of Russia's forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine," Blinken added.

A week ago, President Biden was asked by reporters whether he was ready to call Russian President Putin a war criminal.

"I think he is a war criminal," Biden said.

[indy]

Now that they have shown the ability to hit there, that port may not get much more use even if it is undamaged.

[LFC]

Josh Marshall points out an article which makes the case that while Putin is clearly killing thousands of civilians there may actually be some level of restraint. He's unsparing on what he thinks of Newsweek but he respects the author.

Last night TPM Reader ES sent me this Newsweek article on the Ukraine War that he was puzzling about. I read it and found it quite interesting. Let me premise this by anticipating some responses. Yes, Newsweek is trash. By any fair standard the Newsweek most of us grew up with doesn’t exist anymore. The magazine or rather the title is now owned and operated by yet another rightwing cult – the kind that always seems interested in buying publications. So yes, Newsweek is trash. But I decided to read it because I noticed the byline: William Arkin. Arkin is not trash. He’s a longtime national security reporter with a good, if perhaps idiosyncratic, reputation. I note all this simply to say that you shouldn’t dismiss it because of Newsweek’s current and deserved reputation.

The article is a bit meandering. But the central point is this. We’re hearing that Russia is now targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure and doing its best to level Ukraine since it can’t seem to make any progress by ordinary military means. So demoralize and break the population through carnage since all those convoys of demoralized troops can’t make any progress outside the cities. Arkin’s sources, who seem to come mostly from US military intelligence, say that’s not quite true. Most of the targets are either military targets or legitimate targets from a military perspective. And since the most carnage is in cities under siege a lot of the Ukrainian military and its various equipment are in the cities.

Now, is this feeling a little uncomfortable? I get it. But I don’t think, in fact I’m pretty sure, Arkin isn’t making excuses for the carnage we’re seeing. Nor is he in any way denying the carnage and destructions we’re seeing. What he’s saying is that the Russian military has the capacity to create A LOT more destruction and carnage. But they’re not. And at least what these analysts think is that Vladimir Putin and his generals and whoever else is still in a decision-making position is trying to keep some room open for eventual negotiation or, relatedly, steer clear of actions that could trigger NATO intervention or a different level of armament. If this is true – and Arkin’s sources are not saying they’re sure – it suggests that Putin and Russia may be acting within self-imposed lines at least a bit more than we’re thinking. Or a bit more than press coverage is allowing.

As I said above, a lot of this comes down to ‘they could be killing a lot more people and blowing up a lot more buildings’. And really … that’s a pretty low standard. But it’s at least worth reading the article simply because it’s always good to have as complete and realistic a picture as possible but also because, if the Russians are also trying to hold open the possibility of an eventual negotiated settlement that is something we want to know.

[jackd]

The Russians seem to be claiming that the Ukrainian military is using civilian areas as shields. That is unfortunately close to U.S. claims of civilians being collateral damage in the targeting of legitimate enemy targets in Afghanistan and Iraq.

[LFC]

Mar 24, 2022 17:44:49 GMT jackd said:

The Russians seem to be claiming that the Ukrainian military is using civilian areas as shields. That is unfortunately close to U.S. claims of civilians being collateral damage in the targeting of legitimate enemy targets in Afghanistan and Iraq.

It is but if reports of blocking people from leaving and attacking those who do are true then Putin would be the one who installed those human shields.

[goldenvalley]

Mar 24, 2022 20:07:53 GMT LFC said:

Mar 24, 2022 17:44:49 GMT jackd said:

The Russians seem to be claiming that the Ukrainian military is using civilian areas as shields. That is unfortunately close to U.S. claims of civilians being collateral damage in the targeting of legitimate enemy targets in Afghanistan and Iraq.

It is but if reports of blocking people from leaving and attacking those who do are true then Putin would be the one who installed those human shields.

What so Ukrainian missile launchers are hidden in these apartment buildings?  Really the nature of war now is murder the civilians to either break the will of the country or simply to remove potential insurgents.  Seems like all rules are out.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) 20.3%

3/19 : --

3/20 : 1616 (254) 21.7%

3/21 : 1662 (263) 21.9%

3/22 : 1676 (268) 22.3%

3/23 : 1721 (271) 22.6%

3/24 : 1785 (280) 23.3%

3/25 : 1831 (289) 24.1%

This means they've lost 55 tanks in a week or nearly 4%. They've lost a total of 257 pieces of heavy equipment.

Sadly the aerial bombardments continue relatively unimpeded. It looks like it's a war of attrition at this point.

[indy]

Most recent reports are that the Russian supply ship was taken out by a drone rather than a ballistic missile strike. I guess you really don't need that much of a payload when the target has a lot of its own munitions to add to the effect.

[andydp]

Mar 25, 2022 13:13:52 GMT indy said:

Most recent reports are that the Russian supply ship was taken out by a drone rather than a ballistic missile strike. I guess you really don't need that much of a payload when the target has a lot of its own munitions to add to the effect.

Agreed. An earlier post mentioned the use of SatNav systems for the Turkish Drones. Once again showing how a cheap munition delivery system can destroy billion dollar equipment.
I doubt their fire suppression systems are as thorough as US. You only need to hit one vehicle to get the rest of the equipment burning. Most people have no idea of the “power” of these munitions.

[indy]

On a recent reporting trip to cover Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Time reporter Simon Shuster visited an air base on the Polish side of the Ukrainian-Polish border. Watching as U.S. planes brought in loads of weapons for Ukraine, Shuster felt like he was standing on the brink of something massive.

"What you see is basically a constant cycle of these enormous C-17 military cargo planes landing, unloading their cargo, taking off again, day and night," he says.

www.npr.org/2022/03/24/1088480292/ukraine-russia-war-simon-shuster

[LFC]

It's a tiny feel-good story but I'll take it.

The 19 Ukrainian border guards who famously told an approaching Russian warship to “go fuck yourselves” rather than surrender to them have been returned to Ukraine in a prisoner exchange. The guards, who were manning the tiny Ukrainian outpost of Snake Island (also known as Zmiinyi Island), were initially presumed to have been killed by their Russian invaders. But Ukrainian officials later learned they’d been taken prisoner. The Ukrainian parliament wrote on Twitter late Thursday that the “first exchange of war hostages occurred on President Zelensky’s order.” The 19 guards were exchanged for 11 Russian sailors rescued from a sunken ship near Odessa. They will return home on a ship captured by Russian occupiers while trying to take the guards from Snake Island.

[indy]