Ukraine

[LFC]

This looks like a shift. Putin may have decided on a way to try to save face and keep his country from collapsing even further. Germany pledging to cut dependency on Russian oil and gas may have been quite the wakeup call. I'm sure it was dead Russian soldiers.

Russia’s defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely “liberating” eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region.

The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war

Russian news agencies quoted the defence ministry as saying that Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Ukraine’s Luhansk region and 54% of the Donetsk region - the two areas that jointly make up the Donbass.

The ministry said it did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and that Russia would react immediately to any attempt to close the airspace over Ukraine - something Kyiv has asked NATO to do, but NATO has resisted.

[LFC]

More details on Russia's shift.

We have a bit more detail now on that Russian General Staff update in which they seem to argue that most of their military operation in Ukraine is now done and they’re going to focus just on ‘liberating’ Donbass, the region in the east of the country, part of which had been under de facto Russian occupation back to 2014. Christopher Miller of Buzzfeed gives us a bit more of the nuance and detail.

Specifically, Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoy says that the Russian plan was never to storm Ukraine’s big cities or occupy the country. He says the attacks across the country were simply meant to stretch the Ukrainian military thin, stretch out its supply lines and thus give Russia a freer hand in the Donbass region.

From what I can tell there are two ways of looking at this. It has long been assumed that either Russia’s plan or one of its potential paths was to occupy territory across Ukraine or overthrow the government and then use that leverage to impose a partition of the country. So ‘we always really just wanted the east’ likely has an element of truth to it.

However, the idea that the Russian military was just trying to keep the Ukrainian army pinned down in other places or stretch out its supply lines seems absurd on its face. This is a pretty transparent effort to make excuses for a shocking level of military failure. Indeed, given the kind of war that each side is fighting I’m not even totally sure Ukraine being able to concentrate its forces in the east would have made that big a difference – certainly not a feint leading to the destruction of thousands of pieces of military hardware and soldiers. They’re really not fighting an armor versus armor, symmetric battle. But that analysis of the military situation is above my pay grade. Clearly, how this played out was not their strategy.

Addenda: Here’s the quick take of Michael Kofman, the military analyst who has throughout this crisis seemed to be the most knowledgable and judicious in his analyses.

[indy]

Is it just me or does he actually look a little like Vlad?

[LFC]

Mar 25, 2022 17:54:23 GMT indy said:

Is it just me or does he actually look a little like Vlad?

Minus the charm and personality. Maybe we should start calling him "Peevee" Putin.

[pnwguy]

Mar 25, 2022 18:23:10 GMT LFC said:

Minus the charm and personality. Maybe we should start calling him "Peevee" Putin.

"Tiny Peepee Putin" has a nicer ring to it.  No wonder Dumpster feels such a kinship.

[LFC]

Mar 25, 2022 18:47:37 GMT pnwguy said:

Mar 25, 2022 18:23:10 GMT LFC said:

Minus the charm and personality. Maybe we should start calling him "Peevee" Putin.

"Tiny Peepee Putin" has a nicer ring to it.  No wonder Dumpster feels such a kinship.

Pepe too.

[AnBr]

The Jews have been praying here in Jerusalem, leaning on the Wall of the Planet, for two thousand years. They believe that that point is the holiest on the face of the Earth and that God, in that place, can better hear their prayers.

Yesterday, for the first time after the terrible years of Shoah, they covered themselves in the colors of a flag - this time not theirs, but the Ukrainian one - and they made an appointment here. Then they remained silent, asking God to stop the war, to save the tragedy of that people. There really is no stronger image than this, more capable of "speaking" to the body and to the heart, and to the depth of the soul.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:
3/18 : 1574 (244) 20.3%

3/19 : --

3/20 : 1616 (254) 21.7%

3/21 : 1662 (263) 21.9%

3/22 : 1676 (268) 22.3%

3/23 : 1721 (271) 22.6%

3/24 : 1785 (280) 23.3%

3/25 : 1831 (289) 24.1%

3/26 : 1920 (300) 25.0%

[AnBr]

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) 20.3%

3/19 : --

3/20 : 1616 (254) 21.7%

3/21 : 1662 (263) 21.9%

3/22 : 1676 (268) 22.3%

3/23 : 1721 (271) 22.6%

3/24 : 1785 (280) 23.3%

3/25 : 1831 (289) 24.1%

3/26 : 1920 (300) 25.0%

3/27 : --

3/28 : 2015 (318) 26.5%

[LFC]

Supposed peace talks have restarted.

A new article (sub req) in the FT says that Russia and Ukraine are discussing a ceasefire agreement in which Ukraine would agree not to join NATO but also get NATO-like security guarantees from major European powers and the US. Ukraine would also be free to join the EU. This essentially amounts to armed neutrality and likely an agreement not to host foreign troops on its territory. A key element appears to be an agreement to leave the question of the territories Russia held as of February 24th as a matter to be discussed in subsequent negotiations. So an agreement to disagree for the time being essentially.

The unknown in these negotiations and the reported draft agreements they are working on is that no one on the Ukrainian side – and I suspect in the US as well – is clear at all about whether Russia is actually seriously considering these potential agreements or simply using them to stall for time or keep the Western powers from imposing more sanctions.

But then again Russia is involved soooo...

At least two senior Ukrainian negotiators and the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich suffered from poisoning symptoms after participating in peace talks with Russia, according to news reports.

After meetings on March 3 in Kyiv, the negotiators "developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands," according to the Wall Street Journal. The report was seconded on Twitter by the Bellingcat investigative journalism group, which has a track record of uncovering Russian security agent operations.

Both news outlets report that medical evaluations of the symptoms, which developed after nighttime talks ended and lasted into the next morning, suggested chemical poisoning was the most likely culprit.

Exposures to vapors from industrial solvents or cleaners might best explain the symptoms, toxicologist Alvin Terry of Augusta University told BuzzFeed News. "If a chemical weapon was in fact used, the symptoms you described would resemble a relatively low-level exposure to a sulfur mustard agent," he added. "These chemicals are not particularly lethal, but symptoms can worsen over time."

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) 20.3%

3/19 : --

3/20 : 1616 (254) 21.7%

3/21 : 1662 (263) 21.9%

3/22 : 1676 (268) 22.3%

3/23 : 1721 (271) 22.6%

3/24 : 1785 (280) 23.3%

3/25 : 1831 (289) 24.1%

3/26 : 1920 (300) 25.0%

3/27 : --

3/28 : 2015 (318) 26.5%

3/28 : 2059 (331) 27.6%

[goldenvalley]

Mar 29, 2022 15:35:15 GMT LFC said:

Supposed peace talks have restarted.

A new article (sub req) in the FT says that Russia and Ukraine are discussing a ceasefire agreement in which Ukraine would agree not to join NATO but also get NATO-like security guarantees from major European powers and the US. Ukraine would also be free to join the EU. This essentially amounts to armed neutrality and likely an agreement not to host foreign troops on its territory. A key element appears to be an agreement to leave the question of the territories Russia held as of February 24th as a matter to be discussed in subsequent negotiations. So an agreement to disagree for the time being essentially.

The unknown in these negotiations and the reported draft agreements they are working on is that no one on the Ukrainian side – and I suspect in the US as well – is clear at all about whether Russia is actually seriously considering these potential agreements or simply using them to stall for time or keep the Western powers from imposing more sanctions.

But then again Russia is involved soooo...

At least two senior Ukrainian negotiators and the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich suffered from poisoning symptoms after participating in peace talks with Russia, according to news reports.

After meetings on March 3 in Kyiv, the negotiators "developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands," according to the Wall Street Journal. The report was seconded on Twitter by the Bellingcat investigative journalism group, which has a track record of uncovering Russian security agent operations.

Both news outlets report that medical evaluations of the symptoms, which developed after nighttime talks ended and lasted into the next morning, suggested chemical poisoning was the most likely culprit.

Exposures to vapors from industrial solvents or cleaners might best explain the symptoms, toxicologist Alvin Terry of Augusta University told BuzzFeed News. "If a chemical weapon was in fact used, the symptoms you described would resemble a relatively low-level exposure to a sulfur mustard agent," he added. "These chemicals are not particularly lethal, but symptoms can worsen over time."

Russia seems to be losing ground around Kyiv so of course Putin will claim that he is simply going to cede the territory...for now. Part of me wants to see NATO pound him into the ground. One country shouldn't invade another country and negotiate out of war while still getting a piece of the invaded country.

[LFC]

Mar 29, 2022 16:35:45 GMT goldenvalley said:

Russia seems to be losing ground around Kyiv so of course Putin will claim that he is simply going to cede the territory...for now. Part of me wants to see NATO pound him into the ground. One country shouldn't invade another country and negotiate out of war while still getting a piece of the invaded country.

I hope the U.S. and Europe are making it crystal clear that the sanctions will stay in place until Putin withdraws back to at least the previous lines. Yes, being seen to be a loser back in Russia is a danger to Putin but I doubt it's as much of a danger as having the Russian economy get ground into the dirt. In the former case Putin can try to undo the harm by putting on a strong face again just by arresting a few people, bashing some gays, etc. like he always does. In the latter all the arrests and gay bashing he's capable of won't put his people back to work and won't restore the oligarchs to their former positions and riches.

[goldenvalley]

Mar 29, 2022 16:54:47 GMT LFC said:

In the former case Putin can try to undo the harm by putting on a strong face again just by arresting a few people, bashing some gays, etc. like he always does. In the latter all the arrests and gay bashing he's capable of won't put his people back to work and won't restore the oligarchs to their former positions and riches.

And poisoning them...

[LFC]

Interesting article on the changing face of large-scale warfare as seen in Ukraine. Cheap, easy to deploy, relatively easy to use weapons are destroying big expensive equipment.

But there’s a related but distinct issue that keeps coming back to me as I watch this war unfold.

That is, the vulnerability of the military that has lots of big expensive stuff that can be targeted by small and relatively cheap stuff. In The Guardian today Julian Borger has a fascinating piece on a small unit of Ukrainian special forces and drone operators, many drawn from civilian high tech industries. The unit is made up of only a few dozen people zooming around on quad bikes, using a mix of drones, imaging technologies, aerial surveillance and well-placed but relatively small munitions. (Not directly related to our point here, but apparently it’s managed a lot of its funding through crowdfunding and drawing on civilian business networks for tech supplies.) The point is that it’s this group, according to the article, that has played a big role in hamstringing that now notorious 40 mile Russian military convoy that never got to Kyiv.

This general threat is certainly not lost on the US military. (A lot of the small cheap stuff is actually created and built by the US military.) I’m only vaguely aware of these discussions and policy debates but I know it’s come up a lot for the Navy, especially with an eye to potential future conflicts in East Asia. We’ve got all these big ships. How vulnerable are they to much cheaper and plentiful guided munitions?

What happened to the USS Cole in October 2000 was very different for a number of reasons, not least that the bomb attack happened in a semi-civilian, non-combat setting. But still … a small fiberglass motorboat full of c4 explosives took a Navy destroyer completely out of commission.

The point certainly isn’t that the US military is comparable to the Russian military. If you follow military analyst conversations even as an outsider you can see numerous fallings in planning, logistics, ability to coordinate land and air operations at scale. But there still seems to be an issue – the relative success of light, high-tech defensive weaponry against heavy, armored offensive weaponry – that we can see even after all those factors are excluded. And in that David vs Goliath context we’re definitely Goliath.

The Guardian piece they link to is about a small group of drone pilots using 4-wheelers to get around. I suspect that smaller militaries will be looking at this as a powerful deterrent.

One week into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia massed a 40-mile mechanised column in order to mount an overwhelming attack on Kyiv from the north.

But the convoy of armoured vehicles and supply trucks ground to a halt within days, and the offensive failed, in significant part because of a series of night ambushes carried out by a team of 30 Ukrainian special forces and drone operators on quad bikes, according to a Ukrainian commander.

The drone operators were drawn from an air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, which began eight years ago as a group of volunteer IT specialists and hobbyists designing their own machines and has evolved into an essential element in Ukraine’s successful David-and-Goliath resistance.

[LFC]

Ukraine is claiming further gains.

Ukraine’s military says they have “eliminated” another Russian colonel, adding to a long list of high-ranking Russian military personnel wiped out in Putin’s war against Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on Tuesday that Colonel Denis Kurilo, the commander of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade, was killed outside Kharkiv.

Kurilo’s reported death, on the 34th day of the Kremlin’s “special operation,” comes after at least seven Russian generals were killed in Ukraine, according to both Ukrainian and Western officials.

It also comes as the Ukrainian military announced several territorial gains, with the northeastern town of Trostyanets liberated from Russian troops and several areas outside Kyiv reported back in the hands of Ukraine. The military said territories in the Chernihiv region were also liberated.

The mayor of the town of Irpin outside Kyiv—which has been decimated by Russian bombs as Putin’s troops sought a foothold over the Ukrainian capital—said Russian forces had been completely pushed out.

Authorities there have begun the grim task of clearing out the dead, he said, adding that some of the bodies of those killed by Russian troops had apparently been mined.

Russia sounds like it's tucking its collective tail between its legs.

Meanwhile, perhaps in light of these setbacks, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced a decision Tuesday to drastically reduce operations around Kyiv and Chernihiv.

The announcement came as Kyiv and Moscow held renewed peace talks in Istanbul, where Vladimir Medinsky, the Putin adviser appointed the head of the Russian delegation, described the troop reductions as “two steps toward deescalation of the conflict.”

"Deescalation of the conflict" that you started and is now burning through your military and economy? How noble.

[goldenvalley]

Mar 29, 2022 18:12:16 GMT LFC said:

Ukraine is claiming further gains.

Ukraine’s military says they have “eliminated” another Russian colonel, adding to a long list of high-ranking Russian military personnel wiped out in Putin’s war against Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on Tuesday that Colonel Denis Kurilo, the commander of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade, was killed outside Kharkiv.

Kurilo’s reported death, on the 34th day of the Kremlin’s “special operation,” comes after at least seven Russian generals were killed in Ukraine, according to both Ukrainian and Western officials.

It also comes as the Ukrainian military announced several territorial gains, with the northeastern town of Trostyanets liberated from Russian troops and several areas outside Kyiv reported back in the hands of Ukraine. The military said territories in the Chernihiv region were also liberated.

The mayor of the town of Irpin outside Kyiv—which has been decimated by Russian bombs as Putin’s troops sought a foothold over the Ukrainian capital—said Russian forces had been completely pushed out.

Authorities there have begun the grim task of clearing out the dead, he said, adding that some of the bodies of those killed by Russian troops had apparently been mined.

Russia sounds like it's tucking its collective tail between its legs.

Meanwhile, perhaps in light of these setbacks, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced a decision Tuesday to drastically reduce operations around Kyiv and Chernihiv.

The announcement came as Kyiv and Moscow held renewed peace talks in Istanbul, where Vladimir Medinsky, the Putin adviser appointed the head of the Russian delegation, described the troop reductions as “two steps toward deescalation of the conflict.”

"Deescalation of the conflict" that you started and is now burning through your military and economy? How noble.

Sadly part of traditional diplomacy is to use language that allows the parties to save face.  Of course those rules were created in a different era. Rules only work if people are honorable and I doubt war has ever been instigated by honorable people.  

[LFC]

Russians are kidnapping Ukrainians and in some cases coercing blackmailing them into helping their war effort.

Ukrainian journalists, public officials, civil rights activists and even civilians who are vocal against the invasion of their country are being arbitrarily detained by Russian forces. The tactic is being used to instill fear in local communities, some say, with forced detentions lasting anywhere from a day to two weeks.

It was an icy cold morning on March 23 when Russian forces knocked on Svetlana Zalizetskaya’s front door in Melitopol in southeast Ukraine. Hoping to find her inside, they came face to face with her elderly parents instead. “I wasn’t home at the time,” she told FRANCE 24. The three armed men searched the place, turning the house “upside down”, and took her 75-year-old father to an unknown location.

Zalizetskaya, the director of local newspaper Holovna Gazeta Melitopolya and news website RIA-Melitopol, had fled the city days earlier. “I was intimidated by Galina Danilchenko,” she said, referring to the pro-Russian acting mayor who replaced Ivan Fedorov, who was himself abducted on March 11 and eventually released in exchange for nine Russian conscripts.

“[Danilchenko] asked me to become a propagandist for Russia and to start reporting in support of the occupation. She tried to convince me by promising a great career in Moscow,” said Zalizetskaya, who refused the proposal and packed her things to leave the city for fear of reprisal. A few days later, she received a call and found that her father had been taken hostage.

“Their demand was clear: he would be returned if I gave myself in.” But Zalizetskaya turned down the Russian proposal once again, “so they demanded that I shut down RIA-Melitopol”.

On March 25, two days after her father’s abduction, Zalizetskaya posted on Facebook announcing the transfer of her news website to third parties “in exchange for evacuation” and "in territory controlled by Ukraine" who, according to her, "provide objective information". She is still sharing articles by RIA-Melitopol on her Facebook page and said that she did not personally consent to cooperation beyond the statement.

Her father was released later that day, relatively unscathed but deprived of the medicine he needed and badly shaken up by his abduction. Though Zalizetskaya was relieved, the anger she feels is palpable. “I regard such actions of the occupying forces as terrorism,” she said, adding that she is determined to continue working as a journalist to document the horrors Ukrainians face in Russian-occupied territories.

[andydp]

Mar 29, 2022 17:41:01 GMT LFC said:

Interesting article on the changing face of large-scale warfare as seen in Ukraine. Cheap, easy to deploy, relatively easy to use weapons are destroying big expensive equipment.

But there’s a related but distinct issue that keeps coming back to me as I watch this war unfold.

That is, the vulnerability of the military that has lots of big expensive stuff that can be targeted by small and relatively cheap stuff. In The Guardian today Julian Borger has a fascinating piece on a small unit of Ukrainian special forces and drone operators, many drawn from civilian high tech industries. The unit is made up of only a few dozen people zooming around on quad bikes, using a mix of drones, imaging technologies, aerial surveillance and well-placed but relatively small munitions. (Not directly related to our point here, but apparently it’s managed a lot of its funding through crowdfunding and drawing on civilian business networks for tech supplies.) The point is that it’s this group, according to the article, that has played a big role in hamstringing that now notorious 40 mile Russian military convoy that never got to Kyiv.

This general threat is certainly not lost on the US military. (A lot of the small cheap stuff is actually created and built by the US military.) I’m only vaguely aware of these discussions and policy debates but I know it’s come up a lot for the Navy, especially with an eye to potential future conflicts in East Asia. We’ve got all these big ships. How vulnerable are they to much cheaper and plentiful guided munitions?

The Guardian piece they link to is about a small group of drone pilots using 4-wheelers to get around. I suspect that smaller militaries will be looking at this as a powerful deterrent.

One week into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia massed a 40-mile mechanised column in order to mount an overwhelming attack on Kyiv from the north.

But the convoy of armoured vehicles and supply trucks ground to a halt within days, and the offensive failed, in significant part because of a series of night ambushes carried out by a team of 30 Ukrainian special forces and drone operators on quad bikes, according to a Ukrainian commander.

The drone operators were drawn from an air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, which began eight years ago as a group of volunteer IT specialists and hobbyists designing their own machines and has evolved into an essential element in Ukraine’s successful David-and-Goliath resistance.

The British SAS (Special Air Service) and SBS (Special Boat Service), US Green Berets and Rangers, Navy SEALS, and various unconventional warfare units of just about every country in the world, can wreak havoc far beyond their size and number.  It was proven time and again in Vietnam (by both sides) and every other "unpleasantness" where the military have been deployed.  I said in an earlier post for my money there's a whole "crapload" of these people operating in the Ukraine.  Since "all bets are off", there's a good chance they're also running around Chechnya looking for vulnerable places to make life unpleasant for the occupiers.

A bunch of people in small easily hidden vehicles, carrying lightweight and deadly munitions can do a lot.  The Russian convoy that was immobilized is a prime example.  I'm sure you can come up with your own stories.  

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

3/18 : 1574 (244) 20.3%

3/19 : --

3/20 : 1616 (254) 21.7%

3/21 : 1662 (263) 21.9%

3/22 : 1676 (268) 22.3%

3/23 : 1721 (271) 22.6%

3/24 : 1785 (280) 23.3%

3/25 : 1831 (289) 24.1%

3/26 : 1920 (300) 25.0%

3/27 : --

3/28 : 2015 (318) 26.5%

3/29 : 2059 (331) 27.6%

3/30 : 2104 (345) 28.8%

[indy]

I was really surprised to find out that NLAWS only cost $2000.

[LFC]

Mar 30, 2022 20:49:38 GMT indy said:

I was really surprised to find out that NLAWS only cost $2000.

I'm amazed any piece of military gear only costs $2,000.

[jackd]

Try toilet seats.

[indy]

Mar 31, 2022 13:47:14 GMT LFC said:

Mar 30, 2022 20:49:38 GMT indy said:

I was really surprised to find out that NLAWS only cost $2000.

I'm amazed any piece of military gear only costs $2,000.

Ugh. My bad, I dropped a zero. It should be (still only) 20000. They are single use weapons but cost a tenth of a Javelin system. A really good deal if they take out a 4-6 million dollar tank.