Ukraine

[jackd]

Sortof like Trump trying to impress his Mar a Lago members.

[andydp]

This story is about Crimea and UKR advances across the Dnipro river.  There's more to the story but the paragraph I cited tells a lot.  Establishing a bridgehead and supplying it as the UKR is reported to be doing, is confirmation RUS forces have NO CONTROL of that area. 


Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro river, implying Russia's defensive positions are weakening, report says.  

The new reports suggest a lack of Russian control of the area, as Russian military bloggers claimed this week that Ukrainian forces had maintained positions on the east bank, have established stable supply lines, and are regularly conducting sorties in the area.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-troops-have-established-a-bridgehead-on-the-east-bank-of-the-dnipro-river-implying-russia-s-defensive-positions-are-weakening-report-says/ar-AA1adGb7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=334c2fb8bc704372b96bf5cdaf96ed01&ei=54

[LFC]

What's the big deal about Ukraine crossing the Dnipro? All Russia needs to do is send mass reinforcements from ... aaaahhhh ... uuuuhhhh ... ... ... never mind.

[LFC]

This (chart, not map) shows how successful the big winter Russian offensive has been. They've expended men, ammo, and equipment at a far higher rate than Ukraine in it's effort to claim a victory. ANY kind of victory.

They are now desperate to take Bakhmut by the politically charged date of May 9. Offensive units being sent in are larger and attacks are intensifying. Many of these units are also getting wiped out. The Wagner Group forces are being decimated.

[LFC]

I hadn’t looked at the Oryx verified equipment destruction count in a long time. For reference here is the detailed lists of Ukrainian losses and of Russian losses. The disparity is pretty staggering with Ukraine experiencing less than 1/3 of the losses Russia has been hit with. Or to flip that, Russia has taken more than 3X more losses than Ukraine. No wonder its parade was nearly devoid of vehicles.

I made up this quickie list of a few items that interested me. The first items fall in line with the total but the last items are way off the 1/3 mark, except helicopters which I put in as comparison to other aircraft. Interesting stuff.

[LFC]

May 9 passed without Russians taking control of Bakhmut and now Ukrainians have hit back in force. Russia's 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, which was tasked with holding the southern flank, fled rather than digging in. This does not bode well for Russia. If this is what they can expect out of their forces when faced with a large-scale Ukrainian assault then Putin must be pretty worried about the upcoming offensive.

Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade confirmed on May 9 that the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces has fled Bakhmut.

The news, prior to the confirmation, was originally announced by Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"Prigozhin's report about the escape of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces from Bakhmut and the '500 corpses' of Russians who remained there is true. The Third Assault Brigade is grateful for the publicity of our success at the front," the Third Assault Brigade wrote.

According to the statement, assault troops killed 64 Russian soldiers during offensive operations in the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.

Additionally, "another 87 were on the way," the statement read. Among the casualties were Wagner mercenaries. Five Russian soldiers were also captured.

[LFC]

Russia seems to have created strong physical defenses but has a manpower problem. Remember that Bakhmut is their single highest priority along the entire front line and this is all they could muster to defend their crucial flank.

[LFC]

There's an active discussion on the war, two actually, over at TPM's chat board. I often summarize videos from a group called Reporting From Ukraine which I suspect has some form of gov't backing due to the level of info, quality of video, and number of languages it's available in. Here's my summary from May 8, soon to be followed by one for May 9. Shit's happening around Bakhmut and preparations seem to be in place for more.

Report from May 8 (I’m a day behind) is from Bakhmut.

0:00 - He claims that Prigozhin’s videos worked and that he was given supplies and “full autonomy over the entire direction.” That same day Ukrainian Intelligence saw a large movement of thousands of Russian troops towards the city. Ukraine responded with the largest HIMARS attack of the war along with air attacks and long-range artillery, concentrating on 3 positions.

0:59 - One of the regions hit hard was near Khromove. HIMARS supported a special forces unit that was sent in to clear Russians from the trenches and bunkers. They gained a full kilometer, giving full control of the field entrenchments to the Ukrainians and taking control of the Khromove road away from the Russians.



2:21 - Ukrainian artillery also heavily targeted Russians in the city itself. Wagner forces launched multiple assault units all day long across multiple points of the front which were eliminated. Wagners employed a new tactic, taking advantage of the fact that Russian built high-rise buildings have no windows on the sides. Instead of assault the windows they immediately breached the sides of one of the building, driving Ukrainians out. After Wagner forces took the building Ukraine, as they have done before, remotely detonated the building and completely destroyed it (3:37 - 3:45).

3:53 - Russia also attacked Ukrainians on the northern edge of the city. Ukraine responded with non-stop mortar fire and suppressed the attack.

4:28 - Russian forces are struggling to complete the takeover of Bakhmut. Here is their entire progress for the past 10 days.



4:44 - ISW believes that Prigozhin’s drama was designed to get him equal footing with the military, get better intelligence data, and get unlimited supplies in preparation for the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive. He apparently had all of his demands met but Ukraine saw the preparations for a final assault on the city and struck back harder than the Russians expected.

5:27 - Many Russian sources have reported that Ukraine has already positioned forces for a broad counterattack and predicted it would occur at midnight on May 9.

[LFC]

Report from May 9. It is, of course, from Bakhmut and we can now see what yesterday’s major HIMARS and artillery attacks on Russian forces set in motion. It seems like they waited for major Russian offensive preparations, expected as May 9 approached, hit back harder than ever and were in place to capitalize.

0:00 - Ukraine took 3 sq km on the southern flank. Prigozhin, who seems to be making non-stop videos, announced the attack. He claimed he had multiple reports from his soldiers that the Russian 72nd Brigade “abandoned their positions and ran away the moment they saw Ukrainian tanks and armored fighting vehicles.” He also said the Russian MoD screwed him, cut off supplies again, and has left him with bare flanks.

0:55 - Ukraine later confirmed that almost everything he said was true and provided combat footage of Russians in full retreat before Ukrainian forces reached their positions. His next statement sounds like they believe their psy-ops are working. “It looks like the emotional buildup of anxious anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive broke the Russian spirit, and they thought that staying on the zero line is sure death.” Remember that Ukraine has been whisper campaigning that something big was about to go down for weeks.



1:46 - Ukraine assault the trenches with tanks and armored vehicles, killing at least 64 (and now likely higher) who did not flee. The result is that they have eliminated the second Russian bridgehead along the canal in a month.

2:10 - Prigozhin went off in a video again, tearing into 72nd for abandoning the bridgehead the Wagner Group had previously taken at the loss of 500 men. The Gazprom PMC refused to go to help due to the collapsing front.

2:42 - Before all this went down Wagner apparently moved more troops into the gray zone of the city itself for a big offensive, but HIMARS strikes prevented this from happening. This extended attack with HIMARS destroyed multiple ammunition depots, troops, and equipment concentrations, creating shortages. Couple with the loss of the flanks, the Wagner Group forces may be forced to go on the defensive.

[LFC]

This is from a Russian source. What a clusterf***.

[LFC]

This is a good discussion on Russian defenses vs. NATO weapons. Now we just have to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to do this. We already know they have the military heart and skill to do it.

All this doom mongering about how "difficult" it will be for Ukraine to breach the russian trenches in the South... people need to man up and do some military service before running their mouths like that.

A thread about offensive operations 🧵:

It's amazing the equipment we've created to solve a variety of battlefield problems, and how drones are now an absolutely crucial element for any offensive. Any defense, for that matter.

[LFC]

The U.K. is supplying long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. About f***ing time somebody in NATO did.

The United Kingdom has delivered multiple “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles to Ukraine, giving the nation a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, calling the donation Ukraine’s “best chance to defend themselves against Russia’s continued brutality,” confirmed the transaction on Thursday after CNN exclusively reported the deal.

The Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile with stealth capabilities, jointly developed by the UK and France, which is typically launched from the air. With a firing range in excess of 250km, or 155 miles, it is just short of the 185-mile range capability of the US-made surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, that Ukraine has long asked for.

Critically, the Storm Shadow has the range to strike deep into Russian-held territory in Eastern Ukraine. A Western official told CNN that the UK has received assurances from the Ukrainian government that these missiles will be used only within Ukrainian sovereign territory and not inside Russia. UK officials have made frequent public statements identifying Crimea as Ukrainian sovereign territory, describing it as “illegally annexed.”

The missile is “a real game changer from a range perspective,” a senior US military official told CNN and gives Kyiv a capability it has been requesting since the outset of the war. As CNN has reported, Ukraine’s current maximum range on US-provided weapons is around 49 miles.

Here's a map showing its potential range. All of Crimea is now within reach.

A 250 (yellow) to 300 (blue) km radius applied from Odesa, Kherson, Orikhiv and Kramatorsk gives a rough indication of the reach of Storm Shadow missiles (export version), based on current frontlines. All sovereign Ukrainian territory can be reached with 300km range.

Pootie-Poot has a pouty-pout.

"Russia is extremely negative about the supply of Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles by Britain to Kyiv, an adequate response will be required," Peskov said to RIA Novosti.

[LFC]

Ukraine is going to receive some of that sweet, juicy oligarch cash!

U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland has authorized the first transfer of forfeited Russian assets for use in Ukraine, he said on Wednesday.

The Justice Department last year charged Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev with violating sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, saying he provided financing for Russians promoting separatism in Crimea.

At that time, Garland said, he also announced "the seizure of millions of dollars from an account at a U.S. financial institution traceable to Malofeyev’s sanctions violations."

In February, Garland said he authorized the transfer of that money for use in Ukraine.

"While this represents the United States’ first transfer of forfeited Russian funds for the rebuilding of Ukraine," Garland said, "it will not be the last,” he said in a statement.

[LFC]

Update on the collapse of the flanks around Bakhmut. Ukraine has taken tactically important positions north and south of the city.

Bakhmut update. Thread🧵

1/ Based on testimonies from PoW's, it has been revealed that several Russian regiments, predominantly composed of mobilized troops, were hastily deployed from rear positions without training or preparation after Prigozhin's statement about Bakhmut.

2/ These regiments were swiftly relocated to the flanks of Bakhmut, where deployed companies and battalions suffered devastating losses. Within a short period of three to five days, the casualties exceeded 40%, primarily comprising soldiers killed in action.

3/ The enemy soldiers reported a complete absence of commanders at the frontline, along with a severe lack of communication and the absence of clear orders. They complained over the mistreatment from the Wagner forces - who treat them as the lowest caste

4/ It was also reported that Wagner forces have assumed control over some of the Ministry of Defense units in the Bakhmut area. Because of that, there is a mistrust between units, as soldiers are systematically assigned by Wagner to areas where their chances of survival are low.

5/ Multiple prisoners of war expressed skepticism regarding Wagner's claims of limited ammunition and equipment. They claim to have significantly fewer resources in terms of ammunition and equipment compared to the Wagner forces.

Meanwhile Prigozhin's Wagner Force continues to make incremental but costly headway in the city itself. My predictions on this are:

• The Wagners will take Bakhmut, or what's left of it.
  
• Prigozhin will publicly crow about how awesome he and his troops are.
  
• As Ukrainians continue collapsing the flanks around them, the Wagners will abandon the city before they are trapped.
  
• Prigozhin will tear into the Ministry of Defense about how awful they are.
  

Welcome to Russian military politics.

[LFC]

Analysis of the Russian defense lines.

As Ukraine gathers forces for the counteroffensive, Russia continues to build defensive lines on a massive scale.

The lines are especially formidable in the southwestern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where many observers expect the main Ukrainian assault to strike.

But defenses have been prepared along pretty much the entire front; in occupied Crimea and inside Russia. They incorporate trenches, bunkers and strongpoints, infantry and vehicle shelters, anti-tank ditches, pyramidal concrete tank barriers called dragon's teeth, and minefields, as well as terrain and water features.

When properly manned, these lines could pose a tough challenge without an easy solution.

Russia’s ability to properly man them is debated. The Russian military can’t hope to defend the entire 800-kilometer front line with equal vigor. During the defense, large Russian formations may have to fall back to prepared positions in a coordinated fashion — Russia’s shown that its large-scale maneuvering capability isn’t the best.

However, fortifications may allow Russians to put up heavy resistance in key areas, possibly slowing down the Ukrainian forces long enough for reinforcements to arrive.

Here is an overview of what Russia’s defenses and troop concentrations look like at different parts of the front and what that can tell us about the battles to come.

Mixing this with other things I've been reading:

• Russia has a massive front line trench network.
  
• They do not have enough troops to man them effectively.
• They have enough fewer well trained troops to man them effectively.
  
• They are light on reserves to backstop the places where Ukrainians attack.
• They are running low on equipment like tanks that help make these defenses effective.
  
• The don't as many secondary and tertiary defense positions should Ukraine break through the main line.
  

[LFC]

About sums up the recent Russian missile attack. The Patriots had a 100% hit record on the Russian missiles which included 6 "unstoppable" hypersonic missiles and 3 unspecified ballistic missiles which other Ukrainian anti-missile systems would have difficulty handling. Plus the U.S. is reaping a goldmine of combat data.

[andydp]

May 17, 2023 20:53:48 GMT LFC said:

Analysis of the Russian defense lines.

As Ukraine gathers forces for the counteroffensive, Russia continues to build defensive lines on a massive scale.

The lines are especially formidable in the southwestern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where many observers expect the main Ukrainian assault to strike.

But defenses have been prepared along pretty much the entire front; in occupied Crimea and inside Russia. They incorporate trenches, bunkers and strongpoints, infantry and vehicle shelters, anti-tank ditches, pyramidal concrete tank barriers called dragon's teeth, and minefields, as well as terrain and water features.

When properly manned, these lines could pose a tough challenge without an easy solution.

Russia’s ability to properly man them is debated. The Russian military can’t hope to defend the entire 800-kilometer front line with equal vigor. During the defense, large Russian formations may have to fall back to prepared positions in a coordinated fashion — Russia’s shown that its large-scale maneuvering capability isn’t the best.

However, fortifications may allow Russians to put up heavy resistance in key areas, possibly slowing down the Ukrainian forces long enough for reinforcements to arrive.

Here is an overview of what Russia’s defenses and troop concentrations look like at different parts of the front and what that can tell us about the battles to come.

Mixing this with other things I've been reading:

• Russia has a massive front line trench network.
  
• They do not have enough troops to man them effectively.
• They have enough fewer well trained troops to man them effectively.
  
• They are light on reserves to backstop the places where Ukrainians attack.
• They are running low on equipment like tanks that help make these defenses effective.
  
• The don't as many secondary and tertiary defense positions should Ukraine break through the main line.
  

The French thought the Maginot line was impenetrable.  Russia has not shown capability for large scale coordinated action.  They seem to be assuming the attack will be on a limited front, so they can repel them "piecemeal".  Not gonna happen.  There may be an attack at "sector X" but after you send troops to repel that attack, while at the same time someone will be moving in on the "Sector Y" you took troops from.

[LFC]

May 17, 2023 21:45:42 GMT andydp said:

The French thought the Maginot line was impenetrable.  Russia has not shown capability for large scale coordinated action.  They seem to be assuming the attack will be on a limited front, so they can repel them "piecemeal".  Not gonna happen.  There may be an attack at "sector X" but after you send troops to repel that attack, while at the same time someone will be moving in on the "Sector Y" you took troops from.

Ukraine already head-faked them when they appeared to be preparing for a massive assault on Kherson. Russia sent reinforcements from the north but Ukraine instead hit them up north in near Kharkiv, taking back over 2,300 square miles of territory. The current situation is interesting because Ukraine is actually better armed and prepared while Russia has been badly degraded. On the flipside Russia has better defenses. I'll be biting my nails as things unfold.

[indy]

Given Russia's logistical problems, my guess is we are gong to see numerous attacks across the front lines at different times, each one timed to give the Russian's an interval in which to start moving resources around but not enough time to get it done. Each attack would hopefully inject more confusion into the logistical situation.

[andydp]

May 18, 2023 14:04:42 GMT indy said:

Given Russia's logistical problems, my guess is we are gong to see numerous attacks across the front lines at different times, each one timed to give the Russian's an interval in which to start moving resources around but not enough time to get it done. Each attack would hopefully inject more confusion into the logistical situation.

Excellent assumption.

Moving troops and supplies around to counter attacks along a defensive line requires logistical capabilities which, based on the battle losses we know of, will strain (or overwhelm) the Russian transport.  In addition, their supply lines are likely within range of a multitude of indirect fire weapons.  There are so many problems with this you could do a War College study just looking at a map.

I have sincere doubts the Russians have the ability to coordinate something so complex.

[goldenvalley]

May 18, 2023 14:33:53 GMT andydp said:

I have sincere doubts the Russians have the ability to coordinate something so complex.

And they will still inflict death and destruction.  

[indy]

Yes they will.

[LFC]

May 18, 2023 14:04:42 GMT indy said:

Given Russia's logistical problems, my guess is we are gong to see numerous attacks across the front lines at different times, each one timed to give the Russian's an interval in which to start moving resources around but not enough time to get it done. Each attack would hopefully inject more confusion into the logistical situation.

The longer they're on the road and the closer they are to the front, the easier they are to blow up. And now Ukraine can hit nearly any target within their nation's borders, including across Crimea.

[LFC]

Russia is ramping up their PR campaign in the face of the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Video of what Russia says is the battle shows military vehicles under heavy fire in fields. Russia claims it killed 300 troops and destroyed 16 tanks.

However Moscow's claims have not been independently verified.

And on Monday, Ukraine's military said it had no information about a major attack in the region.

"We do not have such information and we do not comment on any kind of fake," a Ukrainian army spokesperson told Reuters.

I think those hundreds of killed troops and 16 destroyed tanks are now in the same heap as all of the HIMARS systems American sent (plus "amazingly" several more) that Russia claimed to have destroyed, as HIMARS rockets continue to rain down on their heads.

[LFC]

Things are heating up and Ukraine has been playing things brilliantly. They are creating crises, including an actual invasion of Russia by Russian insurgents in the Belgorod region, to force Russia to move troops around. This

This article is a decent overview. (archive link in case you get paywalled)

On June 4th—two days before the anniversary of D-Day, the start of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis—Ukrainian forces launched what Russia’s defence ministry called a “large-scale” assault on five axes in the south-east of Donetsk province, in eastern Ukraine. Some of them may indeed threaten the land bridge; others were further to the north. Western officials tell The Economist that this does in fact mark the start of the offensive, with attacks also under way on other parts of the front. Yet the cream of Ukraine’s forces has not yet appeared on the battlefield.

One Ukrainian attack took place around Velyka Novosilka, a minor settlement south-west of Donetsk city. Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of a Russian militia in Donetsk, said that Ukraine had followed up that attack by pretending to pull its forces back and then striking later at Novodonetske, around 12km to the south-east. The Ukrainians had conducted a successful assault with a limited strike force of just ten armoured vehicles, he said, adding that they had also disrupted Russian communications. Russia’s defence ministry said that Ukraine had thrown its 23rd and 31st mechanised brigades, including two tank battalions, at the front.

There have been advances elsewhere, too. Ukrainian forces are understood to have regained territory in the western and northern suburbs of Bakhmut, a town in Donetsk that has been the locus of fighting for much of the past year. Other reports suggested that there was further fighting in the direction of Soledar, just north of Bakhmut. Russia claimed that the ground assaults had been repulsed, inflicting heavy losses on Ukraine.

In fact Ukrainian troops were in Novodonetske by the morning of June 5th, says a Ukrainian source. “News from the…front line is becoming more alarming by the hour,” wrote one popular Russian Telegram channel. A Western official with knowledge of the situation says that Ukraine advanced in the area by up to five or six kilometres. But while Russia’s defence ministry was mounting its media campaign—hailing the role of General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top commander, in the defensive operation—Ukraine’s government has maintained a policy of information lockdown.

American and European military officials advising Ukraine say that Russia’s defensive lines could be more fragile than thought, and that a fast, violent assault is the best way to minimise casualties on the Ukrainian sides and deny Russian forces the opportunity to reinforce the site of any breakthrough. They suspect that Ukraine has been too cautious in the past, notably during last year’s offensive in Kherson province, where its troops, despite the eventual liberation of Kherson city, allowed thousands of Russian forces to escape with their equipment.