‘Leftugees’ Flee Blue States And Counties For Red

[Rue Bella]

From a few months ago, from Forbes. I would have thought there would be more people fleeing red states. Wrong again...

Some of the numbers come from U-Haul rentals so that is probably a biased sample containing folks less likely to hire a moving firm. Conversely, in my area of coastal SoCal, real estate prices are going nuts. A very nice, better than a 'tract house' just went on the market for 1.8M. It sold in about a week after a bidding war between 4 parties took it to 2.2M.  That is crazy. No view, near a freeway, no property beyond a basic lot. Very nice, but not a special neighborhood.

www.forbes.com/sites/chrisdorsey/2021/03/17/americas-mass-migration-intensifies-as-leftugees-flee-blue-states-and-counties-for-red/?sh=26ed74403146

Mar 17, 2021

America’s Mass Migration Intensifies As ‘Leftugees’ Flee Blue States And Counties For Red


America is on the move like never before. Some would say at a tectonic level and for many the driver is as much political as it is economic. The top five states seeing a mass exodus are all Democrat-controlled. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, California, New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Illinois lost a combined 4 million residents between 2010 and 2019. Conversely, a recent study by U-Haul reported that the top five states to see the greatest influx of new residents include the Republican-led states of Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio and Arizona.


“With a focus on creating the best possible environments for businesses, workers and families to succeed, states led by Republican governors are seeing more and more people become residents,” said Republican Governors Association Deputy Communications Director Mike Demkiw. “People are desperate to escape the heavy handed, regulation ridden big government approach pushed by liberal governors.”

[goldenvalley]

Jul 16, 2021 18:39:53 GMT Rue Bella said:

From a few months ago, from Forbes. I would have thought there would be more people fleeing red states. Wrong again...

Some of the numbers come from U-Haul rentals so that is probably a biased sample containing folks less likely to hire a moving firm. Conversely, in my area of coastal SoCal, real estate prices are going nuts. A very nice, better than a 'tract house' just went on the market for 1.8M. It sold in about a week after a bidding war between 4 parties took it to 2.2M.  That is crazy. No view, near a freeway, no property beyond a basic lot. Very nice, but not a special neighborhood.

www.forbes.com/sites/chrisdorsey/2021/03/17/americas-mass-migration-intensifies-as-leftugees-flee-blue-states-and-counties-for-red/?sh=26ed74403146

Mar 17, 2021

America’s Mass Migration Intensifies As ‘Leftugees’ Flee Blue States And Counties For Red


America is on the move like never before. Some would say at a tectonic level and for many the driver is as much political as it is economic. The top five states seeing a mass exodus are all Democrat-controlled. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, California, New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Illinois lost a combined 4 million residents between 2010 and 2019. Conversely, a recent study by U-Haul reported that the top five states to see the greatest influx of new residents include the Republican-led states of Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio and Arizona.


“With a focus on creating the best possible environments for businesses, workers and families to succeed, states led by Republican governors are seeing more and more people become residents,” said Republican Governors Association Deputy Communications Director Mike Demkiw. “People are desperate to escape the heavy handed, regulation ridden big government approach pushed by liberal governors.”

How many people moved to CA, NY, NJ, MI, and IL in the same time span?  The quote doesn't say net loss.  

[jackd]

Actually, those movements may turn some of the red states blue. That is what has happened to many suburban areas as city dwellers moved out. Motivations for moves are not necessarily political. Many are for jobs or, as the article suggested, cheaper homes.

[LFC]

And yet we have a more robust study that says the opposite. People are moving out of cities but into the blue suburbs, not the Midwest.

Interestingly, they’re mostly moving to the suburbs. They’re not moving, for the most part, to Wichita to save the heartland. They’re moving either farther out within the metro or into nearby counties. So nearby counties around the New York area or in the Bay Area, moving to Alameda County, and so on. And they’re mostly shorter moves.

In the end, the volume of moves in most places isn’t really that much more than a usual year with the exception of New York City, the New York region, and the Bay Area. It’s a movement out to the suburbs or even the exurbs, but it’s still tethered to the big metros.

[LFC]

The reporting on this is Mass. centric but the national data shows the same thing: people are moving from large urban areas to the suburbs, not to the red states.

Over the past year, many people like Duffy fled busy urban areas and flocked to quieter and sometimes more affordable ones like Plymouth, according to a WBUR analysis of change of address forms filed with the U.S. Postal Service from March 2020 through February 2021. The postal service released the data after WBUR and others filed public records requests for the information.

Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors, said national data shows people are leaving "some of the country's most popular areas and relocating to the suburbs."

[Rue Bella]

I initially was interested in the subject because our local real estate market is up significantly (up almost 20% this past covid year, median home price now well over 1M ). In passing it occurred to me people might be fleeing red states since I certainly would think about doing that given, well, the state of red states. So I looked it up and was surprised at the results in that first Forbes article.

More likely instead of an inflow of red state 'aliens' here, it's folks choosing not to live in some of the massive SoCal cities, which this area is not. Over the decades, this inflow has always been the case, only now after covid it seems more so than ever with many folks wanting to work from home. And that home being in a nice setting. 

[AnBr]

If it turns the exurbs even more blue it will make it harder for red gerrymandering.

[goldenvalley]

Jul 17, 2021 3:14:54 GMT AnBr said:

If it turns the exurbs even more blue it will make it harder for red gerrymandering.

If the movement to the exurbs is as after a July of last year the census won’t have captured it.

[goldenvalley]

Jul 17, 2021 3:14:54 GMT AnBr said:

If it turns the exurbs even more blue it will make it harder for red gerrymandering.

If the movement to the exurbs was after July of last year the census won’t have captured it.

[AnBr]

True for this tiem, but I am thinking overall. If so, the trend will probably continue for a while and there will be the next census.

[pnwguy]

Jul 17, 2021 11:57:43 GMT AnBr said:

True for this tiem, but I am thinking overall. If so, the trend will probably continue for a while and there will be the next census.

If the GOP gets in power 2022/2024 the next census will be changed to only count white Republicans. They will have already succeeded in making them the only people able to vote.

[indy]

It's a bit harder to tell what is going on than the original article indicates. How do we know it's Democrats fleeing these states? Maybe the significantly outnumbered Republicans in blue states are seeking political comfort elsewhere? The shift to Florida being more red seems perceptible to me in the last few elections (but could just be illusionary or due to other factors). In Texas, it seems the opposite and is shifting left, but again is it the younger, more diverse population aging into voting or is it importations from other states? Hard to tell to me.

[Bact PhD]

Jul 17, 2021 20:22:48 GMT indy said:

It's a bit harder to tell what is going on than the original article indicates. How do we know it's Democrats fleeing these states? Maybe the significantly outnumbered Republicans in blue states are seeking political comfort elsewhere? The shift to Florida being more red seems perceptible to me in the last few elections (but could just be illusionary or due to other factors). In Texas, it seems the opposite and is shifting left, but again is it the younger, more diverse population aging into voting or is it importations from other states? Hard to tell to me.

I concur.

After reading the piece all the way through, I have the concern voiced above about whether the loss is truly "net loss." The author compares two data points that don't carry a one-to-one correspondence; I might have found the argument more convincing had he used U-Haul data of departures from the aforementioned states as well as the destination data cited.

He then digresses into singing the praises of some master-planned community in the Denver metro. Big Whoop. A community, already well into development, that's designed to attract what would have been referred to as "Yuppies" four decades ago...happens to attract Yuppies.

I'm not sure what planet the author is on WRT to Flori-DUH real estate, either, especially when it comes to much of anything south of I-4 and within 20 miles of the coast. Seriously. This recent Palm Beach Post piece illustrates what $250K will buy in various parts of the state (the accompanying article is paywalled).

Overall the author strains to make his point.

[AnBr]

Wish fulfillment?

[goldenvalley]

Census data is out.  

The white population in the United States, for the first time on record, declined over the course of the decade. People who identify themselves as white on the census form have been decreasing as a share of the country’s population since the 1960s, when the United States opened up more widely to immigrants outside Europe.

The title of this thread still holds.

The Villages, a retirement community in Florida, is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the country. And McKenzie County, N.D., was the fastest growing county over the past decade. Its population more than doubled.

This is interesting...I suspects reflects the reality of who is marrying who or who is having children with who.

The single biggest increase was among people who identified as more than one race, a category that first appeared on census forms 20 years ago, and now is the fastest growing racial and ethnic category. That population more than doubled.

[andydp]

Aug 12, 2021 21:25:57 GMT goldenvalley said:

Census data is out.  

This is interesting...I suspects reflects the reality of who is marrying who or who is having children with who.

The single biggest increase was among people who identified as more than one race, a category that first appeared on census forms 20 years ago, and now is the fastest growing racial and ethnic category. That population more than doubled.

I underlined the category my half Korean grandson falls into.  Now I have to worry about some ____ (<< feel free to insert any word)  accusing him of bringing the "kung flu" into the country.

[Rue Bella]

The white population in the United States, for the first time on record, declined over the course of the decade. People who identify themselves as white on the census form have been decreasing as a share of the country’s population since the 1960s, when the United States opened up more widely to immigrants outside Europe.

Ssssh!  Don't tell the GOP - they might want to enact voting restrictions. 

[Deleted]

Is the decline of the white population in raw numbers or is it a decline in proportion?

[indy]

Aug 13, 2021 15:01:51 GMT @probabilistic3 said:

Is the decline of the white population in raw numbers or is it a decline in proportion?

In proportion. In addition, I saw this tweet:

[goldenvalley]

Aug 13, 2021 17:06:37 GMT indy said:

Aug 13, 2021 15:01:51 GMT @probabilistic3 said:

Is the decline of the white population in raw numbers or is it a decline in proportion?

In proportion. In addition, I saw this tweet:

Apportionment for Congressional seats will involve tricky drawing between urban, suburban, and ex-urban.  In my part of the country the exurban parts may be filled with under-represented groups because they can't afford to live closer in. Those are the folks that usually get packed in a small number of districts, or cracked so that they don't have a majority voting block...and it is all perfectly legal according to the US Supremes.

The US Senate will function as the Founders intended...landowners in rural areas have as much and more impact than the evil city dwellers will...end result is gridlock.