Moldova and Its "Russia Problem"

[LFC]

Maybe this thread will peter out quickly but we'll see. First up we have a movement to oust the current government and replace it with a pro-Russian pro-Putin one. I have no doubt Putie is behind this as he becomes more and more desperate for any kind of win. The current gov't isn't taking it lying down. Of course they still have the problem of Transdniester and the 1,500 Russia soldiers installed there on their eastern border.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has called on the government to give special powers to security forces to crack down on an ongoing street protest that she said was aimed at installing a pro-Russian leadership.

The protests that started on September 19 are organized by the Russian-friendly Shor Party, whose wealthy populist leader Ilan Shor fled the country in 2019 following fraud and money-laundering convictions two years earlier.

Some of the protesters have set up tents outside parliament and the presidential residence, demanding the resignation of Sandu's pro-Western government and voicing their professed anger over rising prices.

Sandu asked the government on October 11 to amend legislation to give more powers to law enforcement agencies, accusing "some actors from within the local administration of sabotaging the country's stability," an apparent reference to Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban, a member of Russian-backed ex-President Igor Dodon's Socialist Party.

Her call came after Ceban on October 10 used city vehicles to block the capital's main thoroughfare in a gesture of support for the protesters occupying the boulevard with their tents.

"Betrayal of the motherland will be severely punished. Those who sow panic and want war will be punished according to the law," Sandu said.

She said the protesters "promise Moscow to establish a government that will be loyal to Russia."

Sandu defeated Dodon to win the 2020 presidential election in Moldova, which borders Romania and Ukraine, and has pursued pro-Western policies that have put her at odds with Moscow.

She has condemned Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, while Russia has threatened to cut off gas supplies in an ongoing dispute over energy payments.

[LFC]

Putin is clearly f***ing Moldova over as well. He could end up driving them into Europe's arms as well. It would certainly make more sense than to end up as a puppet enclave that Russia will use to threaten other countries. Bold mine.

Moldova also has an existing connection to the conflict in Ukraine. Like Belarus, Moldova has a contingent of Russian troops on its territory, though in this case they are located in the breakaway region of Transnistria and have been stationed there for decades. While the Transnistrian conflict has been frozen since the early 1990s and Russian troops there have not been actively involved in Ukraine up to this point, they nevertheless present a security concern for the Moldovan government. Russia has made no secret of its desire to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. This could only be done by linking Russian forces in Kherson to those in Transnistria via the port of Odessa.

Thus, Moldova’s geographic proximity to the Black Sea, combined with the preexisting Russian military presence in Transnistria and the pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian stance of the Maia Sandu government, make it a prime candidate for being pulled directly into the Russo-Ukrainian War in the event of escalation. The violation of Moldovan airspace by Russian missiles was likely not a coincidence and can be interpreted as a message from Moscow to Chisinau that it is not insulated from the conflict. In the meantime, protests against Sandu and their connection to pro-Russian oligarchs demonstrate a threat to the government’s domestic position.

These developments do not necessarily suggest that a Russian military invasion of Moldova is imminent—Russia certainly has its hands full in Ukraine and opening a new front in Moldova would only place greater pressure on overstretched Russian forces. But Moldova is vulnerable to a number of hybrid warfare tactics by Moscow, including fomenting protests and targeting energy infrastructure, with recent missile strikes in Ukraine forcing the country to reduce electricity supplies to Moldova by 30 percent. And with a prepositioned Russian military presence in Transnistria, increased involvement in Ukraine or pressure on the Sandu government cannot be ruled out.

[LFC]

Ex Russian puppet nation Romania is stepping in to help.

Romania will cover the energy deficit registered by Moldova after Ukraine cut electricity deliveries due to Russia bombing its network.

Romanian state-owned power producer Hidroelectrica signed a contract with Moldova’s Energocom to deliver 100 megawatts starting Thursday after the Romanian government adopted a legislative change Wednesday.

The law change allows energy to be exported to Moldova on special terms, Romanian Energy Minister Virgil Popescu said. The price of electricity that will be delivered to Moldova is 450 lei (about €90) per MWh, considerably lower than the spot market price in Romania.