Investment in American Infrastructure

[goldenvalley]

Nov 12, 2021 1:46:26 GMT jackd said:

Rorty suggests that the left should ignore practical politics? I don't think so. Bernie Sanders' politics are practical? Not if it won't make deals. There's a reason that Bernie and other "progressive" candidates didn't get nominated and Biden did: the electorate. Can't do much without them.

This was in the final paragraph of the article

Obama’s implacable optimism inspired the country. Bernie Sanders’s economic populism resonated with far more people than anyone supposed a year or two ago. This is a winning combination for the left.

Biden has been trying combine those two things.  His hoped for reconciliation bill is based on those two things.  

Biden didn't sell it well and/or the media got dazzled by the price tag and hammered on that, as did two Senators. I doubt the electorate knows what was in that bill or what was going on in Congress beyond the Democrats are a mess.  It doesn't help that Pelosi called this stuff "transformational"...that sounds scary to people who just want "normal"

[jackd]

Obama's optimism may have inspired the country but it took away his Congress after two years. Bernie's economic populism couldn't get him nominated and progressive candidates for Congress haven't produced any sort of progressive wave. People poll favorably on many progressive policies but they won't elect people who will vote for them. Poor marketing is no doubt part of that but so is all the cultural stuff that the right trades on.  In the foreseeable future it looks to me as though incremental is the best anyone can expect.

[LFC]

Ugh, I so loathe Manchin.

Democrats have two inflation problems on their hands: a real one, and an imaginary one.

The real one concerns the current inflationary spike that experts are still trying to game out in terms of cause and longevity. And then there’s the imaginary one, where Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) uses inflation as pretext to slow down or kill the reconciliation bill despite broad expert consensus that the package will not increase the inflation rate.

The West Virginia senator sent antennas up when he tweeted last week that inflation is “getting worse,” giving political observers flashbacks to his September op-ed where he named inflation as a key reason that he opposed a reconciliation bill of $3.5 trillion.

The White House and Democratic congressional leadership have launched a preemptive messaging campaign, arguing that not only will the reconciliation bill not worsen inflation, but that it’ll actually help long term by expanding the economy’s capacity.

Democratic senators who spoke with TPM are similarly dismissive of the Manchin handwringing, which Republicans are opportunistically latching onto.

“Considering that Build Back Better is paid for — that’s our intention — I don’t know how that’s supposed to impact inflation,” Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-HI) told TPM. “I wish people would figure out what the actual causal things are.”

A barrage of experts have explained in recent days that because the reconciliation package is paid for and pays out slowly, over 10 years, it won’t pose an inflationary threat the way a sudden burst of stimulus money might. That has assuaged the worry of many Democrats not named Manchin.

“There are colleagues that share these concerns, but I think they have largely been allayed,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) told TPM.

“I think that is the effort Republicans are making — but it’s a false linkage,” Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) told TPM of attempts to paint reconciliation as an inflationary threat. “If anything, passing the bill is going to help us fight inflation by getting people back into the workplace.”

I saw a tweet somewhere (maybe here?) that said it was odd that Manchin was sooooo afraid of the $1.75T BBB package causing inflation but seemed to have no issue with the inflationary impact of over $8T in military spending that would occur during the same time period.

[LFC]

Just like multiple times before Republicans are trying to take credit for shit they didn't do. Of course they are! They have nearly zero accomplishments from their last time in power and have proven themselves unwilling to do much more than shrilly yell, screech, and attack democracy.

Rep. Gary Palmer (R-AL) had made absolutely clear that he did not approve of the bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) when it passed the House in early November, no sir!

Shortly after the chamber passed BIF on Nov. 5, Palmer took to Twitter to complain about “Democrats’ recklessly expensive infrastructure bill” (Democrats had worked with GOP lawmakers on the legislation).

The Republican went on to claim in a fuller statement that both BIF and the Democrats’ $1.75 trillion reconciliation bill containing Biden’s Build Back Better plan were “a Green New Deal wish list” that would increase the debt, which “already presents a serious national security threat,” according to Palmer.

Then, just hours after President Joe Biden signed BIF into law on Monday, Palmer gave himself a gold star for the legislation he painted as a socialist wrecking ball to the U.S. economy.

The GOP lawmaker bragged in an official statement that the package included his proposed legislation that will “provide critical funding” for completing the Birmingham Northern Beltline, a six-lane bypass route around Birmingham, Alabama.

Palmer said the road project was one of his “top priorities.”

[goldenvalley]

Nov 17, 2021 16:04:44 GMT LFC said:

Just like multiple times before Republicans are trying to take credit for shit they didn't do. Of course they are! They have nearly zero accomplishments from their last time in power and have proven themselves unwilling to do much more than shrilly yell, screech, and attack democracy.

The GOP lawmaker bragged in an official statement that the package included his proposed legislation that will “provide critical funding” for completing the Birmingham Northern Beltline, a six-lane bypass route around Birmingham, Alabama.

Palmer said the road project was one of his “top priorities.”

Of course it is. His political priorities is what he is referring to. The bacon comes home to his district and his no vote shields him from any political fallout. 

[jackd]

What's really galling is that his constituents will reelect him for this "success".

[LFC]

The House passed the Build Back Better reconciliation bill. What are the odds that will get past Sinemanchin? Will he kill it with some new mealy mouthed excuse to protect his coal portfolio? Is she just dying to do another thumbs down prance and dance even after the last one backfired pretty badly?

The House of Representatives passed the Build Back Better reconciliation bill Friday, a sweeping package that contains wide swaths of President Joe Biden’s agenda. It goes now to the Senate.

The vote finally happened shortly before 10 a.m., after House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) launched into a many-hours long floor speech Thursday night and delayed the vote. Democrats on the floor were jubilant during the much-delayed final vote, the chatter at times drowning out lawmakers’ proxy voting announcements.

Final passage also came after a week of waiting for scoring information from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which some moderate members requested before the vote. The CBO found that the bill would modestly increase the deficit, though White House estimates show the bill to be fully paid for, stemming largely from a difference in projections of one revenue raiser. Moderates had telegraphed earlier this week that they expected the CBO score to fall short, and that they were prepared to trust the administration’s numbers.

[goldenvalley]

Nov 19, 2021 16:04:34 GMT LFC said:

The House passed the Build Back Better reconciliation bill. What are the odds that will get past Sinemanchin? Will he kill it with some new mealy mouthed excuse to protect his coal portfolio? Is she just dying to do another thumbs down prance and dance even after the last one backfired pretty badly?

Stay tuned for the next exciting episode!

Politico created an update of the School House Rock "I'm Just a Bill", which might "coincidentally" resemble what's going on with this particular bill.

[LFC]

Nov 9, 2021 18:27:12 GMT LFC said:

The House passed the BIF bill with very few Republicans. And of course the GOPers are desperate to tell us how much they're for it except that they're against it.
[snip]

Those that voted for it are, of course, traitors who must be punished.

Another Republican who is pussy-grabber whipped.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) on Sunday passed on the opportunity to condemn former President Trump and his Republican colleagues who have gone after the handful of House Republicans that helped pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill, despite the North Dakota Republican’s support for its passage earlier this year.

[LFC]

F***ing Manchin. (paywalled)

I don’t really know what it means to “punt” BBB until next year. I’m serious.

We’re going to hear that phrase a lot, with a certain baked-in assumption that it means something. But it’s not like the assurance that I’m going to finish my homework tomorrow, or complete my term paper this weekend, or turn in this client project by the end of next week. There’s no certainty that this will ever get done.

The Senate has been at this for months. Democrats haven’t managed to come to agreement. There’s no assurance they will.

But it goes beyond the narrow confines of whether BBB can eventually pass. BBB has had the place of privilege at the head of line. It’s taken priority over almost every other legislative initiative for months now. It’s the elephant in the room.

Does “punting” it to next year mean that the entire legislative calendar is held hostage to BBB for another few months?

There’s a certain way big legislation is proposed and advocated for, and a way it is covered, that is intended to and has the effect of drawing a narrative straight line. They’re working on this big bill, and it’s the most important thing going, and they’re throwing everything at it. And whether they succeed is the abiding drama of the coverage, with each threat to its survival another point in the building drama, until finally it passes and its supporters cheer and its opponents lick their wounds.

Sustaining the drama yields all the familiar political reporting cliches, things like “momentum” and arbitrary deadlines and whip counts. It’s not all made up or fake. There’s some realness to it all. But there’s also an element of leadership trying to craft a story to tell members, and journos doing to same for readers. Never mind that legislating is usually slow and fitful and tedious and boring. Everyone needs a story to make sense of it and to keep everyone on board while the negotiating happens.

But how do you make sense of BBB just limping along? The House-passed version has no chance in the Senate. The Senate can’t come up with its own version. The White House can’t bring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) to heel. Manchin doesn’t seem to particularly care if this drags on forever. Trying to sustain BBB as story — for leadership and reporters — has been difficult bordering on surreal for a few weeks now. But punting to 2022 makes it almost impossible to sustain.

And so the question I started with: When do you declare BBB dead?

For the White House and Senate Democrats, there’s no upside in declaring it dead. It’s a huge failure, so the instinct will be to camouflage it, let its death become apparent slowly over time. But it’s not easy to maintain the illusion of life. For example, over the last 24 hours, advocates for voting rights and other democratic reforms seem to have sensed a possible opening and tried to push their way to the front of the line. If it’s not going to be BBB, then make it the other big Democratic agenda item.

Voting rights doesn’t look any more plausible to get done before Christmas than BBB, but the effect of pushing for something else to take BBB’s place at the front of the line is like writing BBB’s obituary.

The Senate has a few more days before Christmas. Something could still break loose to get a deal done. It’s in the nature of political reporting that the next few days will remained focused on the drama of that question: Can they finish before Christmas?

But if the Senate leaves for the holiday with no BBB, I don’t know how anyone can continue to pretend that a deal on BBB is just around the corner. Then what?

[Traveler]

From what I can gather, the prog proposal has lots of sunset provisions that are not likely to sunset.  Plus, their tax structure still favors plutocrats far too much.  Eliminate the SALT cap?  That alone cost $250B as written, more than the $190B cost of the child care tranche. They are now looking at an income cap on that, but too little too late.  Manchin sure pulled the rug out from his earlier promises, but that was in the fall, and they have had plenty of time to come up with a sensible compromise.  For sure, I blame Manchin for the flip-flops (and the egregious fossil fuel subsidies), but the inflationary aspects of the stimulus are real, albeit entirely transitory.  So they should have come up with better targeted bill on the last three months.  Am I wrong?    

[jackd]

Arguing that sunset provisions are not likely to sunset is dishonest argument. Each sunset requires new legislative action that has to be scored at that time. It's essentially the typical Republican argument that you can't give people anything because they'll never let you take it back.

As to the SALT provisions, blue state governments, as opposed to plutocrats, want these so that they can continue higher state taxes.  Republicans argue that they don't want to "subsidize" blue states' taxation.  They don't seem to mind blue states' federal tax receipts "subsidizing" red states' federal benefits. 

Manchin is a Republican masquerading as a Democrat.

[Traveler]

Dec 17, 2021 15:45:31 GMT jackd said:

Arguing that sunset provisions are not likely to sunset is dishonest argument. Each sunset requires new legislative action that has to be scored at that time. It's essentially the typical Republican argument that you can't give people anything because they'll never let you take it back.

As to the SALT provisions, blue state governments, as opposed to plutocrats, want these so that they can continue higher state taxes.  Republicans argue that they don't want to "subsidize" blue states' taxation.  They don't seem to mind blue states' federal tax receipts "subsidizing" red states' federal benefits. 

Manchin is a Republican masquerading as a Democrat.

BB has a pretty fair description of where we are at.  Suffice it to say, the child tax credit sunset after a year is smoke and mirrors. And my take on the tax structure is supported as well.  

[LFC]

Dec 17, 2021 15:02:40 GMT Traveler said:

For sure, I blame Manchin for the flip-flops (and the egregious fossil fuel subsidies), but the inflationary aspects of the stimulus are real, albeit entirely transitory. 

Over the past half dozen years or so I've read that the "conventional wisdom" concerning inflation has basically shown to be wrong, or perhaps it's better to say not often right. Why didn't simultaneous Republican tax cuts and spending increases that occurred under both W and Trump fail to generate inflation? How come the doom and gloom only arises when it's a Democratic policy?

Over at TPM here's an economist from Tufts University that disagrees that there will much if any impact on inflation, either up or down.

The question, then, is: Could an additional large spending increase cause inflation to accelerate further?

To answer this, it’s useful to put the numbers in some context.

The price tag of the Build Back Better plan passed by the House of Representatives is about $2 trillion, to be spent over a 10-year period. If the spending is spread out evenly, that would amount to about $200 billion a year. That’s only about 3% of how much the government planned to spend in 2021.

Another comparison is to the gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. U.S. GDP is projected to be $22.3 trillion in 2022. This means that the first year of the bill’s spending would be about 0.8% of the GDP.

While that doesn’t sound like much either, it’s not insignificant. Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. economic growth at 3.8% in 2022. If the increased spending translated into economic activity on a dollar-for-dollar basis, that could lift growth by over one-fifth.

But what really matters here is how much the bill would spend in excess of any taxes raised to pay for the program. The higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations that the House version of the bill calls for would reduce economic activity – by taking money out of the economy – offsetting some of the impact of the spending that would stimulate it.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would increase the deficit by $150.7 billion over a decade, or about $15 billion a year. Again assuming this is spread evenly over the 10 years, it would amount to less than one-tenth of 1% of GDP.

In other words, even if the proposed spending has an unusually large impact on the economy, it would still be barely noticeable on a macro level.

[LFC]

Joe Manchin killed the Build Back Better bill ... on Faux News, of all places.

During an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier and in a statement blasted out to reporters, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said Sunday he could not support the current version of the Build Back Better Act being considered in the Senate.

“Despite my best efforts, I cannot explain the sweeping Build Back Better Act in West Virginia and I cannot vote to move forward on this mammoth piece of legislation,” he said in his statement.

“You’re done? This is a no?” Baier asked him on Fox News Sunday.

“This is a no on this legislation,” Manchin replied.

The mid-December declaration caps a frustrating year of negotiations between Manchin, fellow centrist Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), and much of the rest of the party. Progressive Democrats in the House allowed another bill, the bipartisan infrastructure effort, to advance in November, despite misgivings about Manchin and Sinema, hoping that President Biden would be able to get the two holdout senators to yes on the larger budget reconciliation package.

The Build Back Better Act contains an extension of the Child Tax Credit that in 2021 lifted millions out of poverty, other social safety net programs, and hundreds of billions of dollars for addressing climate change.

He apparently blindsided Biden ... again, on Faux News. Make of the timing and the venue what you will.

The White House, in a statement released hours after Manchin’s comments, implied that the senator had not been engaging in discussions with President Biden in good faith. If Manchin’s statement meant that he was abandoning negotiations now, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said, it represented “a breach of his commitments to the President and the senator’s colleagues in the House and Senate.”

“Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on Fox are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances,” Psaki wrote. “Weeks ago, Senator Manchin committed to the President, at his home in Wilmington, to support the Build Back Better framework that the President then subsequently announced. Senator Manchin pledged repeatedly to negotiate on finalizing that framework ‘in good faith.'”

[pg]

This sucks. One Manchin on a power trip (and "on behalf of the entire 1.8 million residents of West Virginia) keeps the country on a path to destruction. Literally and figuratively. I'd be interested to know how much Federal money per capita West Virginians get YOY compared to other states and whether or not Manchin would be willing to give that all away in the name of inflation and deficits. HA!

Michael Smerconish (POTUS satellite radio) reported this morning that Manchin sent an aide to the White House to give Biden and staff a heads-up on the "no"...All of it during pre-prep for his interview. What an asshole.

[LFC]

Dec 20, 2021 15:36:52 GMT pg said:

What an asshole.

But at least his coal portfolio is safer.

[LFC]

If this is true it explains a lot about what kind of "Democrat" Manchin really is.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) delivered a hammer blow to President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion Build Back Better spending package Sunday, announcing on Fox News that he couldn’t vote for it because he thinks it’s too expensive. However, according to HuffPost, Manchin was heard in Congress discussing another problem he has with Biden’s domestic spending plan—that it would give low-income parents money that they might waste on drugs. Two unnamed sources said to be familiar with the alleged comments told the site that the senator was heard speculating that parents might buy drugs with monthly child tax credit payments instead of providing for their kids. He is also reported to have said that Americans might fake an illness to claim paid sick leave to go on hunting trips. According to HuffPost, Manchin’s purported comments “shocked several senators.” His office declined to comment on HuffPost’s report.

[pg]

LOL! He is Coalhornio.

[pnwguy]

Dec 20, 2021 21:03:14 GMT pg said:

LOL! He is Coalhornio.

Except that he needs TP for his pie-hole instead, to keep from wrecking democracy with his loose cannon mouth.  He practically writes the GOP's ads for 2022.  

[Traveler]

As duplicitous as Manchin seems to be, he is not the only one to blame. His take on the child credit extension seems pretty doable to me.   

"Do you believe people making $200,000 and $400,000 should still get the child tax credit the same as someone making $50,000, $60,000, or $70,000 that really needs it?" Manchin said. The $200,000 and $400,000 levels are where the child tax credit phases out faster for individual or joint tax filers; households making more than those levels each year already aren't able to receive the full credit.

Totally agree that is a reasonable take.  Lower the thresholds.  How hard would that be?  His work requirement seems pretty brutal, but when unemployment is this low, not as brutal as if we were in a recession. Between that high a threshold and the idiocy on raising SALT to 80k puts Dems squarely fighting for the upper middle class, when supposedly they are fighting for the little guy. Their tax structure killed any chance of paying for it since so few wealthy had to pay more.  Maybe we can blame that on Sinema, who is by far the more opprobrious. 

Note that this hill is where the bill died.  He was going along with everything else to large extent.  Why did the progressive wing think they could browbeat him into capitulating on this to get a package passed?  Not happy with either side, but the last thing we need is more money for the <5%.  

[jackd]

Manchin was not resisting benefitting the 5%; he was resisting benefitting his own people. It appears he may be back at the table after the reaction to his petulant statement. The AFL/CIO went after him about workers benefits like funding for black lung disease benefits for example. Then there was Goldman Sachs downgrading the the prospects for the economy based on Manchin's rejection of BBB. As to SALT, that's not for the benefit of the wealthy although it has that effect; it's for the benefit of the urban blue states whose state taxes are higher than in the rural red states. SALT limits restrain the blue states tax policies for the benefit of their people. Red state pols say they don't want to subsidize blue state taxes. They don't mind having blue states subsidize them with federal tax receipts. Let's hope they come to a deal. The country needs one.

[AnBr]

Dec 21, 2021 15:40:22 GMT Traveler said:

Totally agree that is a reasonable take.  Lower the thresholds.  How hard would that be?

But still, his comments on parents using the money for drugs paints him for the loathsome POS he is.

[Traveler]

Folks, Manchin is totally reprehensible for his brazen support of fossil fuels, especially coal, his outright mendacity in claiming tax credit goes for drugs, and most of all, for his duplicity during the entire negotiations. His inflation worries are vastly overblown. He makes shit up as goes.

I am glad to hear blowback from AFL-CIO. GS is the vampire squid, but they seem to be right on this. As for SALT, I really don't care much. If you want good schools and services, be happy about paying for them. They are not Federal services, so why should you get a break for keeping your otherwise federal tax dollars locally? Sure, I know blue states pay more to begin with, but that is not the issue. The 2017 tax bill benefited those wealthy quite handsomely. Dems should have focused on clawing that back. Instead, crickets...

The progs played their cards exceedingly poorly when it came down to wire. Remember, if you want big things, you gotta have the votes. Dem woke policies lost winnable seats in 2020, and will lose many more next year. Talk about the gang that couldnt shoot straight.

[LFC]

It sounds like Manchin may not be the face of quietly objecting Senators as some people believe. He's pissing off Democrats of all stripes.

As Democrats reckon with Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) newly aggressive opposition to the reconciliation bill, even moderates are realizing that he put them in an impossible position.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), of “nobody elected [Biden] to be F.D.R.” fame, called Manchin’s position “unacceptable.”

“After months of negotiations, one Democratic U.S. senator has now summarily walked away from productive negotiations,” she wrote. “That is unacceptable, and we cannot act like this moment is the end.”

The New Democrat Coalition, composed of self-described centrist House members, similarly balked at Manchin’s remarks.

“The challenges our country faces are too big and the cost of inaction is too high to throw in the towel on Build Back Better negotiations now,” they wrote, adding in Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) favorite refrain: “Failure is not an option.”

Republicans are practically touching themselves.

Manchin’s BBB Bombshell Renews GOPers’ Defection Calls
Republican senators like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who are utterly delighted with Manchin after he struck a major blow to BBB, are inspired to keep wooing the West Virginia senator over to their side of the aisle.

• Manchin would be “more comfortable” in the GOP, McConnell argued on Tuesday.

• Cornyn texted Manchin yesterday telling him “Joe, if they don’t want you we do,” the Texas Republican said.