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Post by LFC on Dec 22, 2021 16:30:39 GMT
I loathe Manchin so much right now. He's not a principled fighter, he's a f***ing child desperately trying to protect his own financial interests.
Here's the offensive passage from the White House. Manchin is basically furious because Biden is speaking the truth in plain yet completely non-accusatory terms while he has been a slippery shit for months.
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Post by Albert on Dec 23, 2021 14:50:01 GMT
The progs played their cards exceedingly poorly when it came down to wire. Remember, if you want big things, you gotta have the votes. Dem woke policies lost winnable seats in 2020, and will lose many more next year. Talk about the gang that couldnt shoot straight.
No, as the Intercept noted, it was Biden and Pelosi who drank their own nostalgia addled kool-aide about 'deal-making', 'senate comradery' and their supposedly brilliant abilities in it, the power of vague gentleman's handshakes with bad faith actors, that they disregarded the obvious warning that the progressive crowd made about that the only way to get the reconciliation bill was to keep it tied to the IFB, the two track strategy. This was because big business desperately wanted the IFB and did not want the reconciliation bill in its entirety or large parts of it. They instructed their pocketed politicians to push for the former, and resist the latter. By decoupling the two bills, and passing the IFB, Biden immediately surrendered any leverage he had, and gave all the cards to the so-called moderates who never had much desire in BBB.
(emphasis mine)
This is the inevitable result of having an entire party system based around the desires of 80 year old gerontocrats who are mentally trapped in an imagine bygone era that will never return:
Nevermind the fact that almost no one in the general public knows anything about BBB or what's in it, because Biden made zero efforts to sell it to the public, rally them to his side, or explain what's in it, instead opting for a completely technocratic and bizarre strategy of passing the bill first and then retroactively selling it to the public. The shallow public support for this bill arises from the fact that the public was basically excluded from the process, making it even easier for opponents of the bill to kill it without repercussion.
Biden has done a record low 10 press interviews - far lower than Trump or Obama - this year, barely putting any effort into communicating with the public, almost as if he's checked out of the job. For someone who was supposed to be an experienced hand with supposedly decades of experience in getting things done, he has a pretty pathetic grasp of politics. Even the most crazed and sinister Republican operatives understand the importance of mass public mobilization. The Heritage Foundation/wingnut went to work organizing Tea Party rallies immediately after the 2008 election, and spent 2 years creating the Tea Party movement from thin air, and then riling it up, before they rode the wave to congress in 2010.
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Post by goldenvalley on Dec 23, 2021 19:15:28 GMT
No, as the Intercept noted, it was Biden and Pelosi who drank their own nostalgia addled kool-aide about 'deal-making', 'senate comradery' and their supposedly brilliant abilities in it, the power of vague gentleman's handshakes with bad faith actors, that they disregarded the obvious warning that the progressive crowd made about that the only way to get the reconciliation bill was to keep it tied to the IFB, the two track strategy. This was because big business desperately wanted the IFB and did not want the reconciliation bill in its entirety or large parts of it. They instructed their pocketed politicians to push for the former, and resist the latter. By decoupling the two bills, and passing the IFB, Biden immediately surrendered any leverage he had, and gave all the cards to the so-called moderates who never had much desire in BBB.
Nevermind the fact that almost no one in the general public knows anything about BBB or what's in it, because Biden made zero efforts to sell it to the public, rally them to his side, or explain what's in it, instead opting for a completely technocratic and bizarre strategy of passing the bill first and then retroactively selling it to the public. The shallow public support for this bill arises from the fact that the public was basically excluded from the process, making it even easier for opponents of the bill to kill it without repercussion.
Biden has done a record low 10 press interviews - far lower than Trump or Obama - this year, barely putting any effort into communicating with the public, almost as if he's checked out of the job. For someone who was supposed to be an experienced hand with supposedly decades of experience in getting things done, he has a pretty pathetic grasp of politics. Even the most crazed and sinister Republican operatives understand the importance of mass public mobilization. The Heritage Foundation/wingnut went to work organizing Tea Party rallies immediately after the 2008 election, and spent 2 years creating the Tea Party movement from thin air, and then riling it up, before they rode the wave to congress in 2010.
Given that the Senate is split 50/50 (ostensibly at least) I just don't know what really could move the ball with Manchin. Different rhetoric, more rhetoric, more or less press conferences...Manchin is a 90's guy and he likes to play to his constituency. He knows they don't want undeserving, potential cheaters to get anything...and that they'd rather have no program at all than to have a program that lets a single person gain something for nothing. Biden and Pelosi had to dance with Manchin to achieve anything and they tried. He proved to be impervious to the "leverage" of holding up hard infrastructure over the BBB. In the end, a bird in the hand, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, was too attractive to the House members that feared nothing would pass this year if they held out for BBB too. I don't see that public sentiment moves bills in Washington DC...only negative public sentiment has any impact. I also don't see that most average folks have any clue what is going on in DC or their own state capitals most of the time. They've tuned out and have been that way for years. It takes a Trump to get folks riled up enough to pay attention and that is emotion based.
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Post by Albert on Dec 24, 2021 1:21:39 GMT
No, as the Intercept noted, it was Biden and Pelosi who drank their own nostalgia addled kool-aide about 'deal-making', 'senate comradery' and their supposedly brilliant abilities in it, the power of vague gentleman's handshakes with bad faith actors, that they disregarded the obvious warning that the progressive crowd made about that the only way to get the reconciliation bill was to keep it tied to the IFB, the two track strategy. This was because big business desperately wanted the IFB and did not want the reconciliation bill in its entirety or large parts of it. They instructed their pocketed politicians to push for the former, and resist the latter. By decoupling the two bills, and passing the IFB, Biden immediately surrendered any leverage he had, and gave all the cards to the so-called moderates who never had much desire in BBB.
Nevermind the fact that almost no one in the general public knows anything about BBB or what's in it, because Biden made zero efforts to sell it to the public, rally them to his side, or explain what's in it, instead opting for a completely technocratic and bizarre strategy of passing the bill first and then retroactively selling it to the public. The shallow public support for this bill arises from the fact that the public was basically excluded from the process, making it even easier for opponents of the bill to kill it without repercussion.
Biden has done a record low 10 press interviews - far lower than Trump or Obama - this year, barely putting any effort into communicating with the public, almost as if he's checked out of the job. For someone who was supposed to be an experienced hand with supposedly decades of experience in getting things done, he has a pretty pathetic grasp of politics. Even the most crazed and sinister Republican operatives understand the importance of mass public mobilization. The Heritage Foundation/wingnut went to work organizing Tea Party rallies immediately after the 2008 election, and spent 2 years creating the Tea Party movement from thin air, and then riling it up, before they rode the wave to congress in 2010.
Given that the Senate is split 50/50 (ostensibly at least) I just don't know what really could move the ball with Manchin. Different rhetoric, more rhetoric, more or less press conferences...Manchin is a 90's guy and he likes to play to his constituency. He knows they don't want undeserving, potential cheaters to get anything...and that they'd rather have no program at all than to have a program that lets a single person gain something for nothing. Biden and Pelosi had to dance with Manchin to achieve anything and they tried. He proved to be impervious to the "leverage" of holding up hard infrastructure over the BBB. In the end, a bird in the hand, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, was too attractive to the House members that feared nothing would pass this year if they held out for BBB too. I don't see that public sentiment moves bills in Washington DC...only negative public sentiment has any impact. I also don't see that most average folks have any clue what is going on in DC or their own state capitals most of the time. They've tuned out and have been that way for years. It takes a Trump to get folks riled up enough to pay attention and that is emotion based.
As I noted, Manchin and Sinema both desperately wanted to pass the IFB because it was extremely popular with various business constituencies, and both see it as helpful to their reelection prospects, should they pursue reelection, though it increasingly looks likely they might both retire to the 'private sector'.
The only hope they had was a) to keep the two bills tied together, and b) tour the country (during periods when Covid was temporarily repressed), and plaster all the airwaves with 2-3 of the most pivotal aspects of BBB, and build support for them. That would have placed pressure on Manchin, and made it much more difficult, as opposed to now where the support for BBB is so threadbare, Manchin can throw water on it and walk away without any fear of backlash. Even in a world without Manchin and Sinema and a Democratic supermajority, you *always* mobilize the public for major legislation, that's just politics 101.
Might he have still killed it? Maybe. But you'll never know until you try it. Modern day Democrats have a strange strategy of having a defeatist attitude, 'We've barely tried anything, and we're all out of ideas.', apparently forgetting that the most legislatively successful presidents (Roosevelt, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan) used an all-out approach, faced many set backs and failures on the way to getting what they want. Using an ultra-cautious 'the chances of success are low, so we shouldn't try anything' is a guaranteed surefire way to failure.
The GOP understands the utility and efficacy of doing the organizational of building grassroots support for their policies over many years, even if they initially fail. See the transition from Goldwater to Reagan, or Tea Party to Trump. The Democrats, moderates and progressives alike, live in a DC bubble, where they don't engage their own base, they in fact demobilize them, and then spend all their time trying to win the favour of pundits, commentariat types like your David Brooks and Ezra Kleins.
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jackd
Assistant Professor
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Post by jackd on Dec 24, 2021 1:33:07 GMT
There is zero parallel between Biden's situation and that of Roosevelt, Johnson. Nixon, and Reagan.
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Post by goldenvalley on Dec 24, 2021 3:00:33 GMT
Given that the Senate is split 50/50 (ostensibly at least) I just don't know what really could move the ball with Manchin. Different rhetoric, more rhetoric, more or less press conferences...Manchin is a 90's guy and he likes to play to his constituency. He knows they don't want undeserving, potential cheaters to get anything...and that they'd rather have no program at all than to have a program that lets a single person gain something for nothing. Biden and Pelosi had to dance with Manchin to achieve anything and they tried. He proved to be impervious to the "leverage" of holding up hard infrastructure over the BBB. In the end, a bird in the hand, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, was too attractive to the House members that feared nothing would pass this year if they held out for BBB too. I don't see that public sentiment moves bills in Washington DC...only negative public sentiment has any impact. I also don't see that most average folks have any clue what is going on in DC or their own state capitals most of the time. They've tuned out and have been that way for years. It takes a Trump to get folks riled up enough to pay attention and that is emotion based.
The GOP understands the utility and efficacy of doing the organizational of building grassroots support for their policies over many years, even if they initially fail. See the transition from Goldwater to Reagan, or Tea Party to Trump. The Democrats, moderates and progressives alike, live in a DC bubble, where they don't engage their own base, they in fact demobilize them, and then spend all their time trying to win the favour of pundits, commentariat types like your David Brooks and Ezra Kleins.
I agree the GOP understands the utility of riling up the base with emotion packed grievance politics. Negativity is powerful. Communists--bad. Taxes--bad. Muslims--bad. Entitlements, welfare--bad! CRT (whatever that is)--bad! Building something positive takes time. Obamacare wasn't popular until people saw that it worked (and it should have included a public option but that is unpopular). The Tea Party was Astroturf. The real public snoozed through the creation of that and didn't wake up until a few years later and then mobilized to keep Trump and company from killing it.
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Post by Albert on Dec 24, 2021 7:58:13 GMT
There is zero parallel between Biden's situation and that of Roosevelt, Johnson. Nixon, and Reagan. The parallel is obvious. Those four understood the importance of selling their programs to the public, and worked diligently to that aim, while Biden has mostly been missing in action from his own presidency. Reagan and Nixon in particular even understood that polls are not some Rosetta Stone of politics and are actually quite shallow and ephemeral, and that you can even change public opinion on fundamental things with concerted effort over time.
Biden's theory of politics is that you don't engage with the public at all, come up with a super convoluted bill with the help of the think tank world, make no effort to explain it to the public, you pass it in Congress, and then columnists at the Atlantic and the New York Times hail it as historic, and then somehow this will trickle down to the rest of the country, and voters who were apathetic beforehand will somehow magically come to see the boons of the bills and reward the Democrats at the midterms. Needless to say, none of that is going to happen. The GOP understands the utility and efficacy of doing the organizational of building grassroots support for their policies over many years, even if they initially fail. See the transition from Goldwater to Reagan, or Tea Party to Trump. The Democrats, moderates and progressives alike, live in a DC bubble, where they don't engage their own base, they in fact demobilize them, and then spend all their time trying to win the favour of pundits, commentariat types like your David Brooks and Ezra Kleins.
I agree the GOP understands the utility of riling up the base with emotion packed grievance politics. Negativity is powerful. Communists--bad. Taxes--bad. Muslims--bad. Entitlements, welfare--bad! CRT (whatever that is)--bad! Building something positive takes time. Obamacare wasn't popular until people saw that it worked (and it should have included a public option but that is unpopular). The Tea Party was Astroturf. The real public snoozed through the creation of that and didn't wake up until a few years later and then mobilized to keep Trump and company from killing it. Mass mobilizations can take a positive valence or a negative one. Obamacare is a pretty poor example, precisely because it's a technocratic scam that does *not* work. It's essentially the old Romney/Heritage Foundation Plan that they cooked up in the 80s when there were *mild* rumblings that someone like Ted Kennedy or someone might go for some form of government funded healthcare. So this was their 'reasonable' right wing market-friendly proposal to undercut that and 'solve' the problem of American healthcare on terms that were favourable to big business.
Obamacare does not provide universal coverage, it lets tens of millions of people fall through the cracks, and it does not confront the fundamental problem of American healthcare which is astronomic costs that are ever increasing, and mass inefficiencies inherent to American healthcare that are literally the result of private administrators doing fake work. Substandard outcomes for twice the price of peer nations basically, without even covering everyone. Obamacare was based on the delusion that somehow you could both allow the private healthcare system to keep reaping its rapacious profits and somehow provide affordable healthcare to people. You can't. There is a fundamental contradiction between those aims, and something has to give. Not only that, but Obamacare kept healthcare tied to employment, and we all saw the folly of that when the pandemic basically made tens of millions of Americans unemployed. Obamacare wasn't merely unpopular because of GOP smears, it was unpopular because it was a poor mediocre piece of legislation by a disinterested president. It polled at 40-45% approval throughout Obama's entire presidency. It only got to a mediocre 50% approval when Trump tied dismantling it and 'repealing and replacing it' with nothing, and only then did American public opinion rally around the two or three things in Obamacare that are decent: Medicaid expansion, preexisting conditions, etc. But it's never going to achieve a high approval level, because Obamacare does not meaningfully address any of the fundamental problems in American healthcare. This is in stark contrast to various other countries who adopted some form of universal healthcare in the post-war era, including countries like Canada, UK, Germany, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc. all of which have differing models (some governmental, others public-private hybrid), all of their healthcare systems have high levels of approval, regardless of political polarization in their societies, because their healthcare systems actually work and deliver. Obamacare does not. It was political capital wasted on a mediocre program. If you're going to do that, you may as well stick your neck out for a program that has the possibility of actually delivering and shoring up public support over time.
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jackd
Assistant Professor
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Post by jackd on Dec 24, 2021 15:41:50 GMT
The lack of parallel with Roosevelt and Johnson is particularly glaring. Both had significant majorities in Congress and in Johnson's case, when dealing with southern defection on civil rights, he had a Republican Party willing to work with him. Imagine that today!
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Post by goldenvalley on Dec 24, 2021 16:04:07 GMT
European countries were flat on their backs post WWII and had no problem accepting socialized or universal medicine. They had no illusions that prevented acceptance. The magic "market" of capitalism has been a religion in the US for generations. Anything socialist/communist/Marxist is bad, that is part of the religion. Individual achievement is the only thing that matters. Those who can't afford good medical care don't deserve it. That is also part of the religion. It's tragic and it has stood in the way of real progress for people for generations. All the efforts to put forth a good comprehensive health care system will fail until the religion loses its hold on people. I hope the experience with Covid will change attitudes but it is a faint hope.
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pnwguy
Associate Professor
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Post by pnwguy on Dec 24, 2021 17:11:00 GMT
European countries were flat on their backs post WWII and had no problem accepting socialized or universal medicine. They had no illusions that prevented acceptance. The magic "market" of capitalism has been a religion in the US for generations. Anything socialist/communist/Marxist is bad, that is part of the religion. Individual achievement is the only thing that matters. Those who can't afford good medical care don't deserve it. That is also part of the religion. It's tragic and it has stood in the way of real progress for people for generations. All the efforts to put forth a good comprehensive health care system will fail until the religion loses its hold on people. I hope the experience with Covid will change attitudes but it is a faint hope. Hosanna to the gods of the market...
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Post by goldenvalley on Dec 25, 2021 2:18:58 GMT
A further thought on swinging big with economic plans...it won't work until voting rights are secured, partisan gerrymandering is derailed, and legislative bodies aren't allowed to throw out election results it doesn't like. The way to move away from the gerontocracy, if you wish to call it that, is to make sure everyone can and does vote and that the votes actually count towards picking a person who is not part of that gerontocracy. I see many 20 and 30 somethings passionate about climate change but it won't matter if their vote is gerrymandered out of significance.
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AnBr
Associate Professor
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Post by AnBr on Dec 25, 2021 3:25:51 GMT
A further thought on swinging big with economic plans...it won't work until voting rights are secured, partisan gerrymandering is derailed, and legislative bodies aren't allowed to throw out election results it doesn't like. The way to move away from the gerontocracy, if you wish to call it that, is to make sure everyone can and does vote and that the votes actually count towards picking a person who is not part of that gerontocracy. I see many 20 and 30 somethings passionate about climate change but it won't matter if their vote is gerrymandered out of significance. This, so much this. Easy to play "Monday Morning Quarterback" without recognizing political realities. As long as Moscow Mitch pulls the strings of the Republicans in the Senate little of significance will be passed, whether tied with something popular or severed or how it is championed from the bully pulpit. It is the same naïve assumption that all of the Sanders dead-enders made of assuming that all we need to make everything magically better is to just elect the right president. A solid majority (where monkey wrenches like Manchin or Sinema are nearly irrelevant) in both houses of Congress will bring us a lot closer to the desired goals than anything a President with the current Congress can ever hope to do. A super majority could even weather another tRump. Unfortunately we have a Catch-22. To secure voting rights we need that Congress. To get that Congress we need to secure voting rights. We also need to recognize that the order of the most urgent needs is not exactly the same as the order required to achieve those goals, i.e. climate change action is probably the single most important thing for the survival of civilization, but any effort will fail until other goals are met like voting rights. Yes this realization is depressing, but it is the reality we have.
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Post by Albert on Dec 26, 2021 4:34:22 GMT
'Voting rights' are just a mirage, because if you actually examine the rhetoric and the actions of the leadership of the democratic party, they certainly don't *act* as if it's an existential struggle that is going to exclude them from the system for decades to come. They are completely nonchalant and lackadaisical about it. It's just rhetoric to rile up the base, and give the illusion that they're working on some historic protection of Democracy, but their actions completely belie that.
This is all the way back from earlier this year:
We're halfway through to the mid-terms, and there has been virtually no movement on it. 'Save voting rights' has become to the Democratic Party base what 'Repealing Obamacare' was to the GOP base for years. It's something that excites the base, but party elders do not actually care about or treat seriously. But it certainly gives the impression that they're taking on a historic task: Saving Democracy!
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jackd
Assistant Professor
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Post by jackd on Dec 26, 2021 16:18:04 GMT
You've heard, perhaps, of Senator Manchin and the filibuster?
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Post by goldenvalley on Dec 26, 2021 18:15:58 GMT
'Voting rights' are just a mirage, because if you actually examine the rhetoric and the actions of the leadership of the democratic party, they certainly don't *act* as if it's an existential struggle that is going to exclude them from the system for decades to come. They are completely nonchalant and lackadaisical about it. It's just rhetoric to rile up the base, and give the illusion that they're working on some historic protection of Democracy, but their actions completely belie that.
This is all the way back from earlier this year:
We're halfway through to the mid-terms, and there has been virtually no movement on it. 'Save voting rights' has become to the Democratic Party base what 'Repealing Obamacare' was to the GOP base for years. It's something that excites the base, but party elders do not actually care about or treat seriously. But it certainly gives the impression that they're taking on a historic task: Saving Democracy!
I think the Democrats made a miscalculation in thinking that if they could get some economic stuff passed people would love them and then they could turn to voting rights. They had the For the People Act that was actually introduced in 2019, written before states started trying to overturn whole elections by giving legislatures the power to do so. But they didn't realize that the Republicans in the Senate would decide that unity was the most important aspect for their "work" this term and everything would be filibustered. That decision was evident when few voted for impeachment. But even if they turned to voting rights first, see jackd's comments on filibuster. Things cannot get done in a 50/50 split when one side has decided to oppose most everything suggested by the other side and a few use the sanctity of the filibuster as an excuse not to join their own side.
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Post by LFC on Jan 20, 2022 15:44:41 GMT
Another Republican wanting credit for the bill she voted against. What a piece of shit.
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Post by LFC on Jan 21, 2022 14:40:07 GMT
I think it's abundantly clear that Manchin long ago decided to destroy even the smallest version of Build Back Better that might be proposed. At this point he's gleefully killing time to kill the policy.
He's the Ben Nelson of his day, only worse.
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Jan 25, 2022 1:46:02 GMT
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Post by goldenvalley on Jan 28, 2022 17:41:33 GMT
I'm sure some sort of conspiratorial theory will arise to explain how a bridge in Pittsburgh goes down on the very day the President is visiting there to talk about infrastructure. But I post this because of the age of the bridge and its reported condition: How lucky have we been that bridges aren't falling down all over the country? And how long will that luck hold out?
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Post by goldenvalley on Jan 29, 2022 18:12:55 GMT
In all the caterwauling about the infrastructure bill being too big or BBB being too big no one mentions a key component to spending federal money... appropriations and a budget.The continuing resolution passed last August or September will expire mid February. Without a budget or another continuing resolution all infrastructure spending will stop. Meanwhile back in DC, Congress is arguing. Yeah the Pentagon needs more money...
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Post by LFC on Feb 1, 2022 18:27:22 GMT
Manchin declares BBB dead. Gee, what a shock. Awesome, so he killed it and admitted that he's a f***ing butthurt little child who should never have been allowed to hold his office.
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pnwguy
Associate Professor
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Post by pnwguy on Feb 1, 2022 18:39:55 GMT
Manchin declares BBB dead. Gee, what a shock. ]Awesome, so he killed it and admitted that he's a f***ing butthurt little child who should never have been allowed to hold his office. But he represents the most Trumpian state. What better way to hold his office by acting like Trump. "See, I'm just as petulant and childish as the Dear Leader!"
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Post by LFC on Feb 8, 2022 15:10:07 GMT
Sen. Joe Manchin, the most corrupt Democrat in Congress? I've only read about the first third and I'm revolted. Unfortunately watching Manchin in action I'm not surprised.
He will literally let the world burn for money.
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Post by LFC on Mar 25, 2022 16:55:02 GMT
Cawthorn goes typical Republican, trying to take credit for the very thing he voted against. He got called out on it by an opposition group which is not good when you already have 7 primary challengers for your seat.
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Post by LFC on Aug 14, 2022 2:20:10 GMT
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