pnwguy
Associate Professor
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Post by pnwguy on Aug 16, 2021 15:53:55 GMT
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Post by indy on Aug 16, 2021 16:02:44 GMT
I'm also struck by the Afghans utter unwillingness to fight for their own country. They are ready to follow their tribal chieftains but not the duly established government. I think it's pretty clear given the speed at which things collapsed that whatever the U.S. thinks it has been doing for twenty years is mostly just an illusion. There was no established central government, only a mirage of one created by U.S. money and arms.
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Post by Bact PhD on Aug 16, 2021 16:16:59 GMT
From the piece: A damning, if accurate, assessment. How many people (even in our age group) could even find Afghanistan on a map, let alone consider the potential consequences of this or that elected official’s position on the war? Versus how many can rattle off football stats or the latest doings of (fill in the blank) Kardashian, even if the show is wrapped up?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2021 17:54:43 GMT
I'm also struck by the Afghans utter unwillingness to fight for their own country. They are ready to follow their tribal chieftains but not the duly established government. I think it's pretty clear given the speed at which things collapsed that whatever the U.S. thinks it has been doing for twenty years is mostly just an illusion. There was no established central government, only a mirage of one created by U.S. money and arms.
Once again it shows bootstrapping a 7th century society in to the 21st (or, even the 20th.) century through direct external intervention is impossible. Societal revolution has to happen organically and over time for the gains to vest.
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Post by indy on Aug 16, 2021 18:12:30 GMT
That organic revolution which springs up over common causes, usually in response to external pressures, is the stuff that binds a country together. Afghanistan was cobbled together from disparate tribes by external force and so their only common cause has ever been repelling the invaders.
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Post by LFC on Aug 16, 2021 18:42:23 GMT
Josh Marshall says that the lightning fast collapse of the Afghan government and military only proves that they were smoke and mirrors being propped up by the U.S. There was no "there" there to stay to defend.
More from Josh. "We would stay forever." Roll that around in your head. Welcome to the thinking of the top brass in this country.
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Post by LFC on Aug 16, 2021 18:44:22 GMT
Oh, yeah. And it wasn't an intelligence failure.
Read your damn history first. There's 20 years of reports, both media and intelligence, that should make it clear that the Afghan gov't and military were never going to stand up. They took what they could grab and now they're gone.
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Post by LFC on Aug 17, 2021 14:30:58 GMT
The position on Afghanistan at The American Conservative seems to be pretty consistent. There's certainly criticism of Biden but also Trump, Obama, W, and especially the military brass but it all comes down to agreement that getting the f*** out is the most important part of the story.
[ sigh] And then there's Dreher. He almost got it right and he could have cut it off leaving a reasonable post. Instead, as Rod is wont to do, he somehow desperately tied the story to "wokeness." Everything, and I mean everything, goes back to his personal feelings of victimization and impending doom. In short he's insane.
So Rod makes the case for a Taliban style military because, you know, the situation on the ground in Afghanistan is directly comparable to the one in the U.S. Onward Christian soldiers! As for diversity he can't grasp that drawing from the many groups of people in the nation and encouraging them to stay in the military is a smart move. He'd rather we stick with the shrinking white, Christian, and less educated part of the population that we've been using.
What this clearly shows is that Rod has some level of admiration for virtually any society that is based upon religious homogeneity or at least supremacy, no matter how awful the overall outcomes for people living in those societies.
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Post by Rue Bella on Aug 17, 2021 14:49:41 GMT
The mere fact this collapse took a scant few days proves there was nothing of substance in the US propped up extended Afhgan government. House of Cards indeed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2021 16:00:27 GMT
The mere fact this collapse took a scant few days proves there was nothing of substance in the US propped up extended Afhgan government. House of Cards indeed. Still the Biden administration shouldn't have allowed the house of cards to come crumbling down on its head. Of all people, Biden knew the Afghan regime to be a house of cards. There have been too many tactical and operational errors in the process of disengagement. As I wrote yesterday, I don't know if the withdrawal is a strategic error too. American strategic interests are entirely driven by defensive security needs - preventing Islamic terrorism to re-root in Afghanistan. Nation building, while morally appealing, isn't within US reach for a society so retrograde. I fear this debacle has badly wounded Biden's authority to govern. The stench of the debacle will fade but the stain he'll carry.
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Post by Rue Bella on Aug 17, 2021 16:40:08 GMT
I doubt that. The bottom line is that after 20 years of futility, not that many really care about Afghanistan, and what happens there.
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Post by LFC on Aug 17, 2021 17:13:34 GMT
TPM notes ( paywalled) the sudden change of heart by Republicans. Gee, what a shock.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2021 17:41:46 GMT
I doubt that. The bottom line is that after 20 years of futility, not that many really care about Afghanistan, and what happens there. Public opinion could be anything since no-one demands accountability of the public. There's no penalty to be paid for bad opinions. So it can afford to be fickle. Biden may be steadfast his decision to withdraw is the right one. Public sees what's on TV right now. What's on TV right now is avoidable chaos. Chaos of our own making. The guy at the helm gets the bulk share of blame. The images surely dent American prestige and credibility. I understand people wouldn't care after a few weeks what happens in Afghanistan, but people care about the loss of face of their own country. The fickleness of the public is going show. As stories and images of medieval brutality of the Taliban reemerges, it'll cause further loss of face which in turn make public opinion to go sour. Further. The resulting loss of confidence in Biden would adversely impact his ability to haul his agenda through Congress. It was difficult before the debacle. Now, doubly so. On a strategic level, the loss of confidence of the global community in America continues. And with it, the diminution of American advantages.
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Post by Rue Bella on Aug 17, 2021 19:04:57 GMT
We lost far more face as a country when the American people actually elected Donald Trump as president in '16. No matter what happens in Afghanistan, that election is something we will never live down. That was an infinitely greater stain on the US than withdrawing from a country after 20 years of financial hemorrhaging, death and permanent injury. In a month, this will only still matter to those who thought Benghazzii really mattered. Or 'her emails'.
As long as the US is perceived to be rich and powerful, it will retain its 'advantages'. It's a manifestation of the real golden rule - he who has the gold makes the rules.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Post by andydp on Aug 17, 2021 19:25:10 GMT
I've read articles about the mineral wealth of Afghanistan.
I have also read China is poised to recognize the new government and of course, begin mining.
A few Foreign Ministries (including the US) have said they will be keeping and eye on human rights under the new regime. (Sadly we all know what that will involve). You can make money on the fact China will give a rat's patoot about sanctions for human rights violations. Of course any commentary about China's deportment in Afghanistan will be met with "stay out of Chinese affairs".
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Post by goldenvalley on Aug 17, 2021 19:55:11 GMT
We lost far more face as a country when the American people actually elected Donald Trump as president in '16. No matter what happens in Afghanistan, that election is something we will never live down. That was an infinitely greater stain on the US than withdrawing from a country after 20 years of financial hemorrhaging, death and permanent injury. In a month, this will only still matter to those who thought Benghazzii really mattered. Or 'her emails'. As long as the US is perceived to be rich and powerful, it will retain its 'advantages'. It's a manifestation of the real golden rule - he who has the gold makes the rules. I tend to agree with Rue on this. Most of the world couldn't locate Afghanistan on a map. The main reason the US paid attention back when the Soviets were in the country was the Cold War. After that no one paid attention until the US made a big deal about Bin Ladin being there post 9/11. It will sink back into obscurity soon. And yes...the election of Donald Trump will provide a far more lasting reason to laugh at the US and its much touted exceptionalism.
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Post by LFC on Aug 17, 2021 20:13:48 GMT
The vast majority of the people who will be angry at Biden for pulling out were never going to vote for him anyway. When the U.S. is out and the images stop flowing the "what ifs" of the withdrawal will disappear. I agree with the TAC article that warns Republicans about re-embracing the Afghanistan mission too hard. They'll be punished for preaching that more of our soldiers should have died and been maimed to prop up what was clearly an illusion of nation building.
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Post by Rue Bella on Aug 17, 2021 20:14:21 GMT
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Post by Rue Bella on Aug 17, 2021 20:24:22 GMT
The vast majority of the people who will be angry at Biden for pulling out were never going to vote for him anyway. When the U.S. is out and the images stop flowing the "what ifs" of the withdrawal will disappear. I agree with the TAC article that warns Republicans about re-embracing the Afghanistan mission too hard. They'll be punished for preaching that more of our soldiers should have died and been maimed to prop up what was clearly an illusion of nation building. (Bold mine) From a GOP perspective, not only the Afghanistan mission, but the Afghan people as well. When all is said and done, they are still dark-skinned Moozlims who allowed the Taliban to gain control in the first place... and after 20 years of US beneficence... to take over a second time this past week. Who has learned more from this entire adventure - the Taliban or the GOP?
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Post by LFC on Aug 17, 2021 21:08:51 GMT
From a GOP perspective, not only the Afghanistan mission, but the Afghan people as well. When all is said and done, they are still dark-skinned Moozlims who allowed the Taliban to gain control in the first place... and after 20 years of US beneficence... to take over a second time this past week.
They're already spouting "you can get out of the country but you can't stay here" that you'd expect from the party of white Christianist supremacy.
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Post by GRowell on Aug 18, 2021 11:44:53 GMT
All I can see is spin and blame shifting for the hideously chaotic exit that is betraying the Afgans who worked with us and all Afgan women. The buck stops with Biden, plain and simple.
I hope he has the decency to admit he and his administration f- up big time. Only then can we move on. We will see.
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jackd
Assistant Professor
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Post by jackd on Aug 18, 2021 12:38:13 GMT
Pretty hard to see how it could have been done "well" once our withdrawal was announced or perceived.
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Post by LFC on Aug 18, 2021 12:53:35 GMT
Only then can we move on. A ton of evidence says you're incorrect on that. This will drop down the memory hole pretty quickly. This isn't a comment to try to describe it as any less of a shitshow than it is, it's an observation on how quickly people move on. Sure the Republicans will try to use it as a campaign issue but it won't have much impact.
It's odd that there are places in the world where people are still being murdered over ancient grudges. It's also odd that in America, where memory holing is an art, there are still people pissed off about losing their war for slavery. People are messed up.
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pnwguy
Associate Professor
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Post by pnwguy on Aug 18, 2021 14:40:23 GMT
It's also odd that in America, where memory holing is an art, there are still people pissed off about losing The War of Northern Aggression their war for slavery. People are messed up. FIFY. Never forget the patriots that defended southern freedom. Those statues and monuments are sacred ground. </snark>
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Post by LFC on Aug 18, 2021 15:44:44 GMT
This is a pretty brutal takedown of American nation building in Afghanistan and how we helped build their house of cards. I think there's a bit of overstatement of blame but I really don't see how even a motivated people could have succeeded in the cluster-f*** we built.
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