jackd
Assistant Professor
Posts: 813
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Post by jackd on Aug 30, 2021 20:36:54 GMT
Biden refused to kick the can down the road to another President. Had he done so, we'd be replaying this experience then. If civil society didn't develop in 20 years, what in the world makes anyone think it would after 10 or 20 more?
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Post by LFC on Aug 31, 2021 13:15:31 GMT
There's no serious claim of a few thousand marines securing Kabul, after the collapse of Afghan government. The claim was about American forces providing logistics and acting as a force multiplier, while front line war was continued to be fought by the Afghan army, and interior security provided by police. That was the situation in '17 and '18, until the US political decision of wholesale disengagement was made by Trump. That claim further goes to argue America sidelining the Ghani government during the Doha talks with the Taliban, arranging to hand over power come what might, striking a lopsided deal, and pulling out abruptly in '20 and '21 demoralized the Afghan security forces. Beyond loss of morale, US military withdrawal also deprived Afghan forces of air support and essential maintenance and replacement of equipment. Also, the loss of steady stream of US cash which fed the engine of corruption played a major part. I don't remember reading that Trump changed the level of cooperation between our troops and theirs. Or the sidelining of Ghani. I'll have to look those up later but both undercut (and by undercut I mean obliterate) the Trump attempted revisionist history that they weren't really going to pull out. Biden was not bound by Trump administration's decisions. If those were contrary to national interest he was well placed to ignore them. The problem with that is that the Taliban had something to say about that as well and they said it very, very clearly. Staying much longer would have required a major ramp up of troops but you just laid out the case why ramping up wouldn't work without a multi-year commitment. We would have had to rebuild everything Trump tore down while increasing troop counts and that would take a lot of time. Sure we could have tried to extend the deadline another 6 months but we'd just be hoping that there wouldn't be any terrorist attacks during that period. And of course the armchair quarterbacks would be screaming that we should have gotten out faster if that had happened. P.S. Biden has lost the claim to competence in governance. He has looked unsteady and irritated. We're out. After 20 f***ing years we ... are ... out. I saw today we evacuated 115,000 in 17 days. We have all of the Americans who came to the airport out. We were hit with one terrorist attack and that was due to the request of an ally, always a tricky thing. If that's incompetence then sign me up for more.
I also saw that the 100+ American still there were told repeatedly to come to the airport over the lead-up to yesterday's final flight. They didn't. Oh well. That was their choice. Now getting them out is a diplomatic issue, not a military one.
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,818
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Post by AnBr on Aug 31, 2021 13:37:57 GMT
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Post by LFC on Aug 31, 2021 14:04:42 GMT
A few more responses... Whether the stalemate of '17 and '18 was sustainable in the long run, and whether that indeed was a desirable state for US interests for another generation while civil society developed and gathered steam are the critical questions. I think the questions about civil society developing and gathering have been answered. After 20 years there's little to no evidence that it would have. Could it happen? Yes. Is there any evidence it was happening? Clearly not. Staying based on little more than hope is what we've been doing for the last decade. BTW "another generation" is generally viewed to be another 20-30 years. His cold calculation is chaos from Afghan instability is going to be limited to Central and South Asia, and certainly not spillover to the US anytime soon. He estimates America on balance is not going to care terribly about the plight of Afghan women, or few beheadings in a distant land. "Cold calculation?" Well that's a rather emotional and loaded term but let's look at other cold calculations. Isn't is also a "cold calculation" that we should ask U.S. troops to continue to sacrifice lives and bodily injury for a project that was clearly a failure? Isn't it also a "cold calculation" that preventing "a few beheadings" is more important than the thousands of Afghan civilians being killed and injured in a war zone every single year? Or do their deaths count less because they're mostly from bullets and explosions? And while I agree that the plight of Afghan women under any hard-core Muslim society (like our friends the Saudis have) is awful what about the plight of those dead, injured, or watching as their loved ones are killed and injured?
BBC has a good article on the costs of this war, both monetary and human. Anybody making an honest case must factor them in when making their own "cold calculations." One can make the argument that it's worth staying but ignoring these costs altogether would be downright icy. Here's a chart from the BBC link. Anybody making the argument for staying, which is of course the only way to stop the beheadings and women's plight, also makes the argument that this is worth it. There's no dodging it.
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Post by LFC on Aug 31, 2021 17:51:50 GMT
TDB's pet conservative fails to note that the 100 Americans left in Afghanistan were contacted multiple times to try to get them to leave. How ... convenient. Not much of a narrative without it. I wonder if Mr. Lewis will apologize for his piece if the Taliban, rather than targeting them, helps get them out of the country.
If you want to know why he's a crank well just see you he listens to.
The article then descends into things unknown, if these things are true, and the Taliban acting as they did 20 years ago. Can you imagine this happening 20 years ago when we were The Great Satan?
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Post by LFC on Aug 31, 2021 18:11:53 GMT
Another view on the realities of Afghanistan from somebody who served two tours there. It neither spares the MSM or Biden but does call out bogus talking points that are being trotted out by "experts" and supposed journalists.
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Post by LFC on Aug 31, 2021 18:12:41 GMT
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jackd
Assistant Professor
Posts: 813
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Post by jackd on Aug 31, 2021 20:00:42 GMT
President Biden's speech, just concluded, rather effectively pushed Trump's statement into the shadows where it belongs.
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Post by goldenvalley on Aug 31, 2021 21:50:01 GMT
You couldn't get a bigger contrast between the immediate past president and the current one than that exhibited by the above two posts.
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Post by LFC on Sept 1, 2021 15:13:06 GMT
TPM has some horrifying stats on the cost of our war in Afghanistan. This jumped out at me. Also this.
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Post by LFC on Sept 1, 2021 15:23:06 GMT
Great, now there's some numbnuts Congressman who wants to be a hero. At least our military is out so if he ends up getting himself in trouble he's on his own rather than needlessly endangering the lives our troops. What are the odds that he has no idea WTF he's doing?
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Post by LFC on Sept 1, 2021 15:29:35 GMT
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 1, 2021 15:36:37 GMT
Taking a guess here, it may be that the 24 students are Afghani born visiting family during the summer. Sacramento has a population of Afghani refugees that have lived here for almost 10 years. Mostly the husbands of the families worked with the US military.
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Post by LFC on Sept 1, 2021 15:48:58 GMT
Taking a guess here, it may be that the 24 students are Afghani born visiting family during the summer. Sacramento has a population of Afghani refugees that have lived here for almost 10 years. Mostly the husbands of the families worked with the US military. I'm sure that's what it is and I mentioned the Afghan community above but seriously, would you send your child to visit family in a war zone as the U.S. military is withdrawing? It seems like an insane risk to me. Of course their mileage may vary but if you risk your child's life like it seems to me that you can beg for help but there should be no complaining about their situation. (I don't know that they are. It's probably most/all right-wingnuts.) It would be like an anti-masker blaming a school board for their child's COVID after they obtained a mask mandate waiver.
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 1, 2021 16:20:59 GMT
Taking a guess here, it may be that the 24 students are Afghani born visiting family during the summer. Sacramento has a population of Afghani refugees that have lived here for almost 10 years. Mostly the husbands of the families worked with the US military. I'm sure that's what it is and I mentioned the Afghan community above but seriously, would you send your child to visit family in a war zone as the U.S. military is withdrawing? It seems like an insane risk to me. Of course their mileage may vary but if you risk your child's life like it seems to me that you can beg for help but there should be no complaining about their situation. (I don't know that they are. It's probably most/all right-wingnuts.) It would be like an anti-masker blaming a school board for their child's COVID after they obtained a mask mandate waiver. From what little I know about this (a friend has worked with an Afghani family through a refugee charity for 7 years) the links to Afghanistan are strong. Many times the fathers were still employed and spending long periods of time in the country even after they moved to Sac. Extended family remained in Afghanistan. Visiting for the summer might have been something routinely done and they may be in places other than Kabul.
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Post by LFC on Sept 1, 2021 21:03:04 GMT
This time he singled out Martha Radatz for moving the goalposts.
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jackd
Assistant Professor
Posts: 813
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Post by jackd on Sept 2, 2021 1:33:45 GMT
There is, it seems to me, a legitimate question as to the military's advice to the administration. I'm guessing they claimed more competence and commitment in the Afghan army than existed because they had, after all, trained and supplied them.
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 7, 2021 16:58:57 GMT
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Post by LFC on Sept 7, 2021 18:47:15 GMT
Thumping his little chest and pretending he's a big boy. It's rather pathetic.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Sept 9, 2021 16:41:35 GMT
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Post by LFC on Sept 9, 2021 18:41:11 GMT
Wonder how Fox news is covering this. (Just checked: After the usual "Biden is a Bozo" articles, the flight was about the fifth story down. At least this time, it wasn't on the fouth page.) Looks like it's sinking fast. Red arrow mine.
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Post by LFC on Sept 9, 2021 18:56:28 GMT
The Faux headline in their Afghanistan live updates literally an hour or so before the plane touched down?
F***ing tools.
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Post by LFC on Sept 13, 2021 17:39:51 GMT
The Bush entry into Afghanistan was a bigger cluster-f*** than we realized. Remember Rumsfeld's desperate attempts at a rehab tour some years back? Sorry, Donny. You're going down in history as one of the worst Secretaries of Defense this nation has ever seen and nothing you try to spin is going to change that.
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Post by LFC on Sept 13, 2021 21:46:24 GMT
A lesson in history and hypocrisy.
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Post by goldenvalley on Sept 13, 2021 23:33:03 GMT
The Bush entry into Afghanistan was a bigger cluster-f*** than we realized. Remember Rumsfeld's desperate attempts at a rehab tour some years back? Sorry, Donny. You're going down in history as one of the worst Secretaries of Defense this nation has ever seen and nothing you try to spin is going to change that. I've always wondered if Karzai was the Chalabi of Afghanistan, slick dudes who told Bush Administration people what they wanted to hear. And why weren't these military folks who knew there was no strategy and no way to "win" not speaking up. I get chain of command yada yada but this had far reaching ramifications that needed to be aired.
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