Russia

[andydp]

Aug 16, 2022 22:07:23 GMT LFC said:

Russia's state media is having a little meltdown over Trump being busted with classified materials. I found it amusing that they referred to him as "our agent Trump."

Has Tucker been notified ?

[goldenvalley]

Aug 17, 2022 11:00:03 GMT andydp said:

Aug 16, 2022 22:07:23 GMT LFC said:

Russia's state media is having a little meltdown over Trump being busted with classified materials. I found it amusing that they referred to him as "our agent Trump."

Has Tucker been notified ?

I'm sure he has.  Maybe via Urban.

And I hear some SQUIRREL coming out of the Russia media stuff.  Gotta take Russians minds off of the number of dead Russian soldiers and economic concerns...let's talk about the US and gender!

[LFC]

Saw a commenter post this about Russia. Ouch.

[LFC]

Looks like Putin is still trying to squeeze a little juice out of this investment.

[LFC]

I agree with this. Russia, especially under Putin, is an existential threat to the calm and order that Europe has mostly enjoyed for decades. They need to be pushed back to a place where they cannot threaten smaller countries on a whim because Putin is polling poorly and needs a "Look! Squirrel!" moment.

[LFC]

This analyst say that Russia had no existential threat from Ukraine but managed to create on for itself by attacking it. These are issues that could have been negotiated, and in fact had been before, but Putin decided to escalate everything. He's already lost on NATO, Russia is bleeding badly over Ukraine, if Ukraine pushes Russia back they'll almost certainly join both the EU and NATO, and now the missiles he claimed to be so scared of are wide open to be placed anywhere along Russia's western border.

In late December 2021, Putin declared: "The United States is standing with missiles on our doorstep. Is it an excessive requirement not to install shock systems at our house?"

However, most crucially, the US indicated that it *was* willing to negotiate on the issue of intermediate-range missiles and NATO exercises in Europe.

In early February 2022, the US and NATO offered Russia to inspect its bases in Romania and Bulgaria in order to verify the absence of Tomahawk cruise missiles that are capable of reaching Russian territory.

However, the Kremlin dismissed these proposals and went to war with Ukraine.

Quite possibly, the reason for this dismissal was that the Kremlin itself had installed intermediate-range missiles in Kaliningrad, refusing NATO inspections of the site.

Now, the issue of Ukraine was in no way connected to the issue of intermediate-range missiles.

Even the full occupation of Ukraine would not have prevented the US from installing missiles in Eastern Europe - more like, accelerated it.

After the invasion, all talks on the limiting of intermediate-range missiles collapsed and no one offers the Kremlin to inspect missile sites in Romania and Bulgaria anymore.

In other words, the invasion of Ukraine did not have anything to do with "existential threats" to Russia - what is more, it actually created them by making the new missile arms race in Europe all but inevitable.

This is a consequence of the invasion on par with Finland and Sweden joining NATO - if not a more strategically important one.

The real reason for the invasion was and has always been Putin's inability to tolerate independent, sovereign Ukraine.

The first phase of troop build-up in Spring 2021 started after Ukrainian authorities cracked down on the sources of Russian influence in Ukraine, taking off the air three TV channels belonging to Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin's ally and personal friend.

This does not, and has never had, anything to do with "existential threats" or "security concerns".

It has everything to do with Putin's desire to have a personal veto on any decision made by the Ukrainian government.

Not just "leverage", but full veto power. Indeed, as I wrote earlier, absent the invasion, Nord Stream 2 pipeline was all but guaranteed to open, depriving Ukraine of its leverage on Russia's gas sales to Europe - and 3bn in transit fees.

But for Putin, even increased leverage was not enough. What he wanted - and still wants - is to reduce Ukraine to the status of Russian colony.

He literally explains it in his July 2021 article, full of openly colonialist and imperialist rhetoric.

For this goal, Putin is willing to risk everything, including any security considerations. They are the casualty of the invasion, not its cause!

Now, I do not know what was Putin's primary motive - a sense of personal humiliation after two decades of failed Ukrainian policy (and humiliation is his biggest fear) or the imperialist megalomania emerging out of his obsessive interest in Russian and Soviet history.

But the fact remains - Putin was willing to risk everything, including Russia's short-term and long-term security and its economic interests, over his desire to subjugate Ukraine.

[LFC]

Kinzinger just put Putin on notice about any ideas of playing with a nuclear power plant "accident." I'm sure he's not the only one telling Putin this.

[LFC]

Now Moldova is making plans for Russian aggression by asking Romania, a NATO member, for help.

I wonder the Russians might end up getting pushed out of Transnistria, their occupied territory in Moldova, if things get bad enough. They hold it with 1,500 troops or so but it's skinny and wedge between Moldova and Ukraine. With the Black Sea Fleet basically in hiding any resupply would be difficulty and extremely dangerous. If a NATO membership was on the table for them it could literally be one big push from both sides and the Russian soldiers there would be gone, one way or the other. Here's what they'd have to defend.

[LFC]

Here's the whole thread from Kristi Raik which is in one of the tweets above. I think she's thought this through much more fully than a lot of the "OH NOES!" analysts out there and certainly those who hammered everybody with "WE HAVE TO TALK! WE HAVE TO TALK! WE HAVE TO TALK!" without looking at what was actually happening. This is the main chunk. Notice that the "we have to worry about escalation!" crowd may very well have caused more pain an suffering (bold mine).

I think it’s fair to say that the West is back. It’s stronger, more united. The key European organizations, EU and NATO, are enlarging and showing considerable ability to adapt to the changing geopolitical environment and respond to threats.

The concern is, of course, how to keep up this dynamic as the war becomes more costly. We should have learned from Minsk agreements that compromises with Russia that create an illusion of stability but lack any enforcement mechanism become even more costly in the longer term.

What really bothers me is how Western security experts have been preoccupied with possible escalation.

Wish to avoid escalation has prolonged the war and caused more suffering to Ukrainians. With faster and stronger Western help, the war would be over more quickly.

The West is afraid of two things which in theory can happen together or separately: expansion of the war in Ukraine into NATO-Russia war, and nuclear escalation.

As for NATO-Russia war, preventing it has been NATO’s core task that it has thus far successfully fulfilled. NATO does not attack Russia. Russians know they cannot win a war against NATO, so they are highly unlikely to attack NATO. This logic still holds.

As for nuclear escalation, the worst thing to do – and this is precisely what the West has been doing – is to show fear. The more we show fear, the more Russia manipulates it with outrageous nuclear threats, hoping to paralyze the West.

Use of nuclear weapons, at any scale, would be self-destructive for Russia. No one can fully exclude it, but rather than showing fear, the West should make clear to the Russians that going nuclear would not help them achieve their strategic goals.

Btw, they know that the West also has nuclear weapons, but Western leaders don’t go around boasting about it.

Less Western military aid to Ukraine does not make Russia behave less aggressively. This should be obvious, but looking at western hesitation, it isn’t. Western self-imposed limits to military aid have been rather random and constantly shifting.

The West struggles with accepting the idea that we are in a long-term conflict with Russia. We are inclined to think that cooperation is always better than conflict and that one should try to resolve conflicts as soon as possible. However, this is not Russia’s strategic thinking. Prolonged conflicts have an important role in Russia’s foreign policy toolbox. Russia continues the war in Ukraine and conflict with the West as long as it thinks it serves its interests. And that might be a long time.

[pnwguy]

Aug 20, 2022 17:33:43 GMT LFC said:

If someone is determined to fight you, then they will fight you, no matter how much you'd rather not get into a fight with them.

The Democratic party West is currently facing a prolonged conflict with MAGAts Russia, in which it has only two choices: either to resist or to compromise its values.

To restate his comments to our own internal dilemma.  But will the Democrats get their collective sh*t together, or be beholden to the triggered activists that think life revolves around social media and an utopian idea of justice.

[LFC]

Apparently the war has emboldened a Russian anti-Putin group to act. It's sad that this man's daughter was killed instead of him though I've read that she was carrying on his "work" of ultra-nationalist lies so she's hardly an innocent figure.

The daughter of an influential Russian political theorist who is often referred to as "Putin's brain" was killed in a car bombing on the outskirts of Moscow, officials said Sunday.

The Moscow branch of the Russian Investigative Committee said preliminary information indicated a bomb planted in the SUV driven by Daria Dugina, 29, exploded Saturday night and killed the TV commentator who was the daughter of Alexander Dugin, a nationalist philosopher and writer.

Dugin is a prominent proponent of the "Russian world" concept, a spiritual and political ideology that emphasizes traditional values, restoration of Russia's power and the unity of all ethnic Russians throughout the world. He also is a vehement supporter of Russia sending troops into Ukraine.

The explosion took place as his daughter was returning from a cultural festival she had attended with him. Some Russian media reports cited witnesses as saying the SUV belonged to Dugin and that he had decided at the last minute to travel in another vehicle.

The father and daughter were a real pair.

While Dugin's exact ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin are unclear, the Kremlin frequently echoes rhetoric from his writings and appearances on Russian state TV. He helped popularize the "Novorossiya," or New Russia, concept that Russia used to justify the 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimea and its support of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

He promotes Russia as a country of piety, traditional values and authoritarian leadership, and disdains Western liberal values.

His daughter expressed similar views and had appeared as a commentator on the nationalist TV channel Tsargrad, where Dugin had served as chief editor.

Dugina herself was sanctioned by the United States in March for her work as chief editor of United World International, a website that the U.S. described as a disinformation site. The sanctions announcement cited a UWI article this year that contended Ukraine would "perish" if it were admitted to NATO.

"Dasha, like her father, has always been at the forefront of confrontation with the West," Tsargrad said on Sunday, using the familiar form of her name.

In his 1997 book, "The Foundations of Geopolitics," Dugin laid out an ideology called Eurasianism. The idea suggests that Russia, uniquely positioned between Europe and Asia, is unassimilable within Western civilization. Instead, Dugin thinks Russia should embrace its geopolitical distinctiveness and dominate both spheres, uniting Europe and Asia into one great empire ruled by ethnic Russians. Dugin has set Eurasianism in direct opposition to liberalism and the whole "Atlantic" world he believes is led by the United States.

If this is the clown that Putin has been listening to you can see why he's completely out to lunch about his own power, glory, and importance in the world.

UPDATE: A Russian internal resistance group has claimed responsibility. That has to have the Putinites shittin' their britches. This wasn't some long distance attack from Ukraine. It was home grown.

[LFC]

Russia is experiencing "brain drain", much like many of the red states in America. When you offer nothing but frothing nationalism there's little to hold bright and talented people. (Paywalled so link to Wayback Machine.)

But like countless other young educated Russians, Sonya, who asked that only her first name be used, packed her bags and fled the country after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Over 3.8 million Russians left from January to March this year, according to the Federal Security Services’ own estimates. Some left for work or travel reasons, but many also left because of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Other estimates put the number of people who left because of the war at 300,000 to 3.8 million. The exact number is still unknown. A recent survey from non-governmental organization OK Russians says that the average age of Russians who left the country after Feb. 24 is 32 years old, while 80% of them have a higher education degree.

And as the war approaches its six month anniversary, the country is experiencing a second wave of outward migration, as individuals and families who needed more time to wrap up their lives are now leaving. And although the estimates vary widely, this year’s mass exodus from the country is comparable to the initial emigration out of Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed and 1.2 million Russians left in 1992 and 1993. Russia’s current, large-scale brain drain of young, skilled and educated citizens, could decimate sectors from journalism, to academia, and technology, experts say.

Sonya was part of the second exodus. In March, she bought tickets for the cheapest flight out, which was $650—only slightly less than her monthly salary of $750—and left in May. She said she realized early on that life in Russia was untenable, because of “the war… more horrid details about the situation in Ukraine were being revealed. The government, the system. Inhumane [and] anti-democratic laws. A ruined economy.”

“Everyday we were, and still are, going through an uncontrollable stream of shame and anger,” she says.



For a Better Future
Almost overnight, Putin’s war on Ukraine turned Russia into a global pariah and plunged the economy into chaos.

International leaders condemned Putin’s actions, and Western nations hit the country with unprecedented sanctions, including cutting it off from SWIFT, the international payments system.

Since February, over 1,000 global companies have curbed their operations in Russia, curtailing job opportunities and access to goods and services for Russians. Inflation soared to nearly 18%, while real wages plunged 7.2% in April.

In the first quarter of this year, the number of Russians living below the poverty line surged to 20.9 million—14.3% of the population, compared to 12.4 million in the last quarter of 2021, an increase of nearly 67%, according to Russia’s government statistics agency, which attributes the rise in poverty to inflation. Former Putin aide Andrei Illarionov told the BBC in April that this number could double or triple as the war continues.

As a result, young people in Russia envision an uncertain and unstable life ahead due to the war. They’re more opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other demographics groups because they don’t want war, nor to be isolated from the rest of the world, according to surveys and experts.

“They feel more acutely than other groups that the war has deprived them of a future,” Kseniya Kirillova, an analyst for think tank Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Fortune.

[LFC]

This was an interesting user comment over at TPM.

Peter Zeihan predicted in a 2014 book, The Accidental Superpower, that Russia would attack Ukraine by 2022. The reason for deadline was that because of Russia’s catastrophic demographic collapse, that was the latest it could engage in military expansion, before it had to few men of military age form an expeditionary army.

It makes sense. From this link you can see that their average age went from 34.9 in 1990 to 40.2 in 2020. Their total population went from about 148M in 1990 (roughly their peak population) to about 144M currently. Demographically they're collapsing. Couple with the brain drain issue and the fact that they have nuclear weapons we're looking at them sliding towards becoming North Korea Max.

[LFC]

This is kind of a supercut of Russian punditry on Ukraine. Producers at Faux News are taking notes.

[LFC]

Well I guess everything's going to be just fine now.

Former basketball player and current authoritarian friend Dennis Rodman claimed he has been given permission to ask Russia to free Brittney Griner.

“I got permission to go to Russia to help that girl,” Rodman told NBC News. “I’m trying to go this week.”

[goldenvalley]

Aug 22, 2022 18:28:36 GMT LFC said:

Well I guess everything's going to be just fine now.

Former basketball player and current authoritarian friend Dennis Rodman claimed he has been given permission to ask Russia to free Brittney Griner.

“I got permission to go to Russia to help that girl,” Rodman told NBC News. “I’m trying to go this week.”

Could the State Department arrange a swap? 

[LFC]

Classic Russia. They've got the assassination case all wrapped in 24 hours and, of course, the Ukrainians did it. This post lays out just how ridiculous this is because it makes it clear that either a) they're lying or b) Russian intelligence is staggeringly incompetent.

[LFC]

Interesting to see how the leader of Germany responded to Russia before the invasion.

As one comment notes, this completely debunks the lie that Putin invaded to stop Ukraine from joining NATO.

[LFC]

WTF? Why are they even saying this out loud?

[LFC]

Interesting information about the attempted assassination of Alexander Dugin that killed his daughter instead. As the author says there is one reliable rule to follow: "Don't believe whatever the Kremlin says." Looking at the facts, poorly covered or badly misrepresented by the MSM, this could have easily been a false flag to help Putin drum up more support for the war and a possible future general mobilization which even he is afraid to attempt ... yet.

It’s hard to know the truth in a case as bizarre as this one. But there is one reliable rule to go by: Don’t believe whatever the Kremlin says. A few things to keep in mind as we try to sort out what happened:

First, Dugin is far less important than some people are suggesting. He’s not “Putin’s brain.” There is no evidence that Dugin has ever met Putin in person, much less offered him regular advice, and I am yet to be convinced that the Russian president spends his leisure time poring over turgid political tracts. Putin didn’t have to read Dugin’s writings to come up with plans to annex Crimea or undermine Ukrainian statehood — both of those ideas have long been widespread among certain members of the Russian elite. Putin has his own brain.

Second, killing Dugin will likely have zero direct effect on Russia’s war against Ukraine. Staging such an attack in Putin’s backyard might boost Ukrainian morale a bit. But that seems like a lot of risk for the sake of eliminating someone who plays no actual role in the conduct of the war. Dugin, it is worth noting, has no government position; his only function is as a propagandist — and Russia is oversupplied with those. (Both Dugin and his daughter have indulged in genocidal rhetoric against Ukrainians — which, sadly, places them solidly in the mainstream of Russian public discourse today.)

And that brings us to the most important point — that we shouldn’t take Kremlin statements at face value. Russia is a paranoid dictatorship prosecuting one of the most brazen acts of international aggression in decades. In 2014, Putin wholeheartedly denied that his troops were seizing control of Crimea until the operation was finished; today, six months after the start of the invasion, it remains a crime to state the truth that Russia is waging “war” in Ukraine. Dictatorships, by their nature, do not deal in truths. Any information released by the Russian authorities should be treated less as a description of reality than as a political tool.

[LFC]

I don't know his definition of "current form" but I suspect things will be at least somewhat different, even if just a little worse overall. But if Putin is removed from power or has even almost completely lost the ability to project power (other than "I'll nuke the world!" threats) then what does this mean for Western policy?

Ben Hodges
@general_ben
Excellent thread by Brian Whitmore @powervertical

Russia, in its current form, is not likely to exist in five years. We need to think about how to deal with this to minimize the risk and chaos while enabling a peaceful transition. We failed to do that with the end of the USSR.

Do we just leave them to rot? If we do will them become dependent on China? If we start dismantling sanctions and allowing the rejoin the world, especially if Putin is still at the helm, will they just use increased economic strength to rebuild their military? I hope smart, experienced, knowledgeable people (i.e. not Republicans) are thinking about this.

[LFC]

Was Faux News modeled directly after Russian state media?

[LFC]

Here's an analysis of the impact of Putin's invasion 6 months in. Taking control of Ukraine, uh, all oblasts bordering Russia plus entire coast, uh, all oblasts bordering Russia, uh, 5 easternmost oblasts bordering Russia, uh, ... well, let's just say that the continually dumbed list of territory hasn't been working out well but that's just part of it. There are other losses, like the expansion of NATO, where Putin's war has caused him to lose more and more ground. The analysis first goes over Putin's stated list for justification of the invasion. It then goes on to other known goals of the Kremlin.

Beyond the Russian govt’s stated goals, how well have Russian national interests (as understood from a reading of policy documents, speeches, articles, interviews) been served by the war? Very badly indeed.

Others who know far more about these topics than me have talked about issues including the effects on the Russian economy and the acceleration of Russia’s dependence on China. I want to highlight 3 issues:

First, Russia has seen maintaining its influence over the other states of the former Soviet Union (minus the Baltic States) as a foreign policy and security priority since the collapse of the USSR. The war has been very bad for this.

Ukraine is further away from Russia than ever; Moldova is on a path to EU accession, together with Ukraine.

Although Russia sent troops to Kazakhstan in Jan to prop him up during serious unrest, Kazakhstan’s president has refused to support Russia’s war and relations between Russia and this key Central Asian state are possibly the worst they’ve ever been.

Other states of the former Soviet Union have conspicuously failed to stand behind Russia over Ukraine. In early March, for example, only Belarus voted against a UNGA vote condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, for example; the other states abstained.

But even Belarus has not always proved to be a helpful client state. Despite reported pressure and despite Russia's urgent need for help, Lukashenka has not involved Belarus directly in the war by sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine.

Lukashenka’s widely-talked about resistance to Russian pressure on this issue is an embarrassment for the Kremlin – if they can’t even coerce Lukashenka, where does this leave Russian regional hegemony?

And if Russia isn’t a regional hegemon, then what happens to Russian national identity, grounded as it is in self-identified great power status that rests heavily on its hegemonic role in the post-Soviet space?

I saw somebody state that the outcome of this war is an existential threat to Putin and the current crop of Kremlinites. That's probably true, but it's a situation they created. Now they're trapped in a mess of their own making.

[jackd]

The problem with it being "existential" is that it may cause use of nuclear weapons as Putin has threatened.

[pnwguy]

Aug 23, 2022 0:08:59 GMT goldenvalley said:

Aug 22, 2022 18:28:36 GMT LFC said:

Well I guess everything's going to be just fine now.

Could the State Department arrange a swap? 

Only if they can grant him diplomatic immunity so he can be bypassed around airport metal detectors.