Russia

[indy]

Feb 24, 2022 20:00:09 GMT goldenvalley said:

Feb 24, 2022 17:57:08 GMT pnwguy said:

Sadly, humanity seems to be headed into a "Game Of Thrones" world where narcissistic lunatics will rule by violence and kleptocracy. Civilization and democracy was nice while it lasted.

Americans didn't retain the lessons of post WWII.  We didn't beat the Germans and then go home to take advantage of the GI Bill and produce a bunch of kids.  We invested in Europe to try to produce stable democracies.  Somehow modern Americans decided that after the USSR disintegrated the work of supporting stable democracy was finished.

Well, I think that many people believed that the access to the western financial resources that Russia required in order to rebuild would offer enough leverage (i.e., capitalism would do all the hard work) to influence a path to Democracy. I also think the people who thought that were woefully ignorant of Russian culture. We should have acted to destabilize the economy the minute Putin gained power.

[LFC]

Russia is threatening Finland and Norway over any thoughts of joining NATO. To be blunt if I were leading either of those nations I would have been in talks with NATO years ago. Now it would be an imperative. Putin is completely out of control.

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman has said that Moscow would have to respond if Sweden and Finland intended to join NATO.

Maria Zakharova held a press conference on Friday and reflected on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the intentions of Russia going forward.

A clip of her speech has begun to go viral on social media as she appears to issue a threat aimed at Sweden and Finland, saying it would have "serious military-political repercussions." The video has amassed over 300,000 views.

"Finland and Sweden should not base their security damaging the security of other countries," Zakharova said during the press conference.

"Clearly [the] accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO, which is first and foremost a military alliance, would have serious military-political repercussions that would demand a response from our country," she said.

This comes after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the country was receiving support from both nations.

[pnwguy]

Next on Tucker Carlson Tonight:

"Finland and Sweden are dictatorships and threats to Russia. IKEA has been arms smuggling advanced weapons inside of furniture boxes for years! Saunas are brain washing chambers that promote nudity and the rejection of Christianity"

[AnBr]

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/russia-ukraine-protests-putin/

[andydp]

Meanwhile:

Finland, Sweden brush off Moscow's warning on joining NATO

www.clickorlando.com/news/world/2022/02/26/finland-sweden-brush-off-moscows-warning-on-joining-nato/

How do they say *^&%$ off in those countries ?

[AnBr]

[andydp]

Nations, like individuals, are punished for their transgressions.
Ulysses S. Grant

I understand the Russian Oligarchs have lost several Billions of Dollars, banking system access is being shut down.  (BS walks, money talks)

On a positive note: several liquor outlets, including the entire New Hampshire State Liquor Store system have pulled Russian Vodka and other items originating in Russia off their shelves. 

[andydp]

On a strategic level:

There is an old saying among military people: "Amateurs talk tactics, Professionals talk logistics".

One news report said the Russian Army seems to be having resupply problems.  Such as getting ammunition to its units.  The Ukrainians may not have as big a force as the Russians, but they have a big advantage: internal lines of communication.  They can attack and disrupt supply lines anywhere along its length.   Frankly, securing supply lines in a hostile area is a use of personnel who normally would be at the 'front".

[indy]

[indy]

Ruble looks to be in free fall after the SWIFT announcement. Was about 85 rubles to the dollar last week and indications currently are that it may open in the morning at 175 to one. If you're a Russian with dollar denominated account balances (which you can have in Russia) you are one happy camper assuming you are going to spend it locally. If you are an industry or business that needs foreign products you are probably well and truly screwed.

[indy]

"The ruble cratered, the stock market froze and the public rushed to withdraw cash on Monday as Western sanctions kicked in and Russia awoke to uncertainty and fear over the rapidly spreading repercussions of President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

As the day began, Russia’s currency lost as much as a quarter of its value within hours. Scrambling to stem the decline, the Russian Central Bank more than doubled its key interest rate, banned foreigners from selling Russian securities and ordered exporters to convert into rubles most of their foreign-currency revenues. It closed the Moscow stock exchange for the day because of the “developing situation.”

www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/ruble-russia-stock-market.html

[indy]

Oh, and while the Moscow FX and stock exchanges never opened, Sberbank is listed on the London exchange and lost 74% of its value there.

[andydp]

Feb 27, 2022 16:12:27 GMT andydp said:

On a strategic level:

There is an old saying among military people: "Amateurs talk tactics, Professionals talk logistics".

One news report said the Russian Army seems to be having resupply problems.  Such as getting ammunition to its units.  The Ukrainians may not have as big a force as the Russians, but they have a big advantage: internal lines of communication.  They can attack and disrupt supply lines anywhere along its length.   Frankly, securing supply lines in a hostile area is a use of personnel who normally would be at the 'front".

Couldn't resist putting this one here:

My logisticians are a humorless lot ... they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.
Alexander the Great

[LFC]

I saw on the news crawler this AM that the ruble lost 40% of its value and the central bank upped interested rates from 9.5% to 20%. I think Putin underestimated the world reaction. All of Europe is scared spitless to let him think he can simply retake all of the old Soviet satellite nations ... and then some.

[LFC]

[andydp]

Feb 28, 2022 13:16:23 GMT LFC said:

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Beat me to it...

[LFC]

Putin goes nuclear. Well, pre-nuclear. This is a maniacally quick escalation which will only harden world opinion that he's becoming more and more unstable and that he can't be negotiated with. And as one correspondent said it's not the move of a leader whose invasion is going well. And I definitely think he miscalculated the backlash. He may have thought this was just another Crimea moment.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, on Sunday condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to order Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces to be on alert for a “special regime of combat duty.”

During a televised meeting with top officials on Sunday, Putin cited so-called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers and sweeping financial sanctions from the U.S. and other western leaders when announcing that he directed military leaders to put Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert.

“President Putin is continuing to escalate this war in a manner that is totally unacceptable, and we have to continue to condemn his actions in the strongest possible way,” Thomas-Greenfield said during an appearance on CBS on Sunday. “Our voices have been unified with the Europeans and with the world that he needs to cease his aggressive actions toward Ukraine. And we will continue here at the United Nations and around the world to use every possible lever we have at our disposal to expose his actions.”

Thomas-Greenfield added that she is “not surprised” that Putin announced he was preparing Russia’s nuclear forces because the Russian president “has tried every means possible” to instill fear.

“It just means that we have to ramp up our efforts here at the United Nations and elsewhere to hold him accountable,” Thomas-Greenfield said.

Thomas-Greenfield went on to say that “nothing is off the table” with Putin when asked whether he could deploy chemical or biological weapons.

“He’s willing to use whatever tools he can to intimidate Ukrainians and the world,” Thomas-Greenfield said.

[indy]

The vague nuke threats have always been part of the Russian propaganda arsenal, so on one hand it is certainly not unexpected. On the other hand, they seem to have pretty lousy conventional forces (the effect of multi-year skimming of the defense budgets by cronies? Deliver 100 missiles and bill for 1000? Who knows?) and there is always the possibility the sanctions are TOO effective. Then add Putin into the mix and things could go very wrong very fast.

[AnBr]

I think that the severe sanctions will be far more effective against Russia than usual, given that it seems to hurt the oligarchs particularly hard and so quickly. I would like to think that they would continue even after the crisis is over until Putin is completely removed from power. Interesting to see if the money dries up for the troll farms.

[goldenvalley]

Feb 28, 2022 14:27:36 GMT indy said:

The vague nuke threats have always been part of the Russian propaganda arsenal, so on one hand it is certainly not unexpected. On the other hand, they seem to have pretty lousy conventional forces (the effect of multi-year skimming of the defense budgets by cronies? Deliver 100 missiles and bill for 1000? Who knows?) and there is always the possibility the sanctions are TOO effective. Then add Putin into the mix and things could go very wrong very fast.

I wonder if the nuke threat was aimed more at the Russians themselves.  A way of telling them how serious the threat to the country is so that they will be less upset about the economic fallout that is hitting them.  The Big Bad Decadent West is coming for them!

[andydp]

Feb 28, 2022 14:27:36 GMT indy said:

The vague nuke threats have always been part of the Russian propaganda arsenal, so on one hand it is certainly not unexpected. On the other hand, they seem to have pretty lousy conventional forces (the effect of multi-year skimming of the defense budgets by cronies? Deliver 100 missiles and bill for 1000? Who knows?) and there is always the possibility the sanctions are TOO effective. Then add Putin into the mix and things could go very wrong very fast.

There have been plenty of reports saying Ukranian troops have stymied the Russian advance.  I'm sure 70+% of this is propaganda by the Ukranian government to bolster morale.  BUT... its not all BS.  The world has coalesced around the Ukrainians, even Switzerland has made it financially impossible for Russia and the assorted oligarchs have had their funds frozen.  

Switzerland Ends Neutrality, Will Freeze Russian Assets

www.newsandguts.com/switzerland-end-neutrality-will-freeze-russian-assets/?fbclid=IwAR2wjI5ua6hzP9rofvrlwxiJ4vzTY4edIofYQlRrzq8VgUkn5rsXNsRgQGk

Two advantages the Ukraine are internal lines of communication and supply. They don't have to keep troops stationed around their supply routes like I'm sure the Russians are being forced to.  And of course, the Ukrainians are protecting their homeland while the Russians are invaders.  (If reports are credible, some of the Russian troops are in their teens and have little training.)

You cannot conquer the Americans…You have been three years teaching them the art of war, and they are apt scholars. (William Pitt)

What was that part about history repeating itself ?

[indy]

Feb 28, 2022 14:57:12 GMT AnBr said:

I think that the severe sanctions will be far more effective against Russia than usual, given that it seems to hurt the oligarchs particularly hard and so quickly. I would like to think that they would continue even after the crisis is over until Putin is completely removed from power. Interesting to see if the money dries up for the troll farms.

Well, unfortunately the really attractive thing about troll farms is they are so cheap (comparatively).Even if Putin is removed, I'm afraid they are going to be with us a very long time.

[indy]

Feb 28, 2022 17:17:48 GMT andydp said:

Feb 28, 2022 14:27:36 GMT indy said:

The vague nuke threats have always been part of the Russian propaganda arsenal, so on one hand it is certainly not unexpected. On the other hand, they seem to have pretty lousy conventional forces (the effect of multi-year skimming of the defense budgets by cronies? Deliver 100 missiles and bill for 1000? Who knows?) and there is always the possibility the sanctions are TOO effective. Then add Putin into the mix and things could go very wrong very fast.

There have been plenty of reports saying Ukranian troops have stymied the Russian advance.  I'm sure 70+% of this is propaganda by the Ukranian government to bolster morale.  BUT... its not all BS.  The world has coalesced around the Ukrainians, even Switzerland has made it financially impossible for Russia and the assorted oligarchs have had their funds frozen.  

Some advantages that the Ukraine has: internal lines of communication.  They don't have to keep troops stationed around their supply routes like I'm sure the Russians are being forced to.  Of course, the Ukrainians' are protecting their homeland while the Russians are invaders.  (If reports are credible, some of these troops are in their teens and have little training.)

You cannot conquer the Americans…You have been three years teaching them the art of war, and they are apt scholars. (William Pitt)

What was that part about history repeating itself ?

I have no idea what Putin's end game is, but if it is to install a puppet regime in the Ukraine...well, we only need to look at the recent record of those sorts of attempts. They have failed AND we have failed AND with more troops in MUCH smaller countries. And those countries did not have borders shared with a very rich union of countries more than happy to supply arms and money to a counter insurgency.

In addition, the EU is now committed to reducing its dependence on Russian energy, NATO now seems to perhaps have a few more countries considering joining, and Germany is massively increasing its defense budget. While I'm sure somebody like the Chinese will likely step up to buy energy, I'm also pretty sure they are going to demand concessions.

I mean, if this is a winning strategy for Putin somehow, I certainly don't see it.

[andydp]

Random musing: Years ago I read a book dealing with the Russian military.  One sentence I always remember:  "When the Russians start cursing the Devil" things are not going well for them.  I wonder if there's any "Devil heavy" intercepts out there.

[LFC]

This TPM piece says there a difference this time. Much of what's in it has been covered above but the fact is that Biden is stepping aside and allowing Europe to lead the sanction charge. The big difference is that this time they are doing it. Putin managed to put a scare into a lot of neighbors and threats directed at nations like Finland and Norway didn't gain him any trust. Bold mine.

A number of you have asked me, where’s President Biden? Why aren’t we seeing him on TV? Note that he has a State of the Union address coming up which will provide an extremely high profile setting. But the real reason is almost certainly that the U.S. administration wants to have Europeans taking the most visible role announcing new sets of sanctions. I suspect they also want to avoid taking the bait of President Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling. Reports suggest that — wisely and unsurprisingly — President Biden has chosen not to match Russia’s nuclear forces alert status. First, there’s no need to. Our strategic nuclear forces are already on plenty of alert to manage the unthinkable. There’s no need for that kind of tit for tat escalation. We also don’t need competing press availabilities.

With all this said, though, there’s clearly something more happening here than just allowing Europe to take the lead in announcing measures the U.S. was trying to persuade them to take. There’s also clearly a sea change, both in the willingness to contemplate crippling economic sanctions as well as to openly arm the Ukrainian army.

After years in which Europeans have to be coaxed to agree to sanctions or decisions the U.S. wants, they are now practically falling over themselves to heap more sanctions on Russia, more aggressively arm the Ukrainians. It’s half occurred to me whether the U.S. might find itself needing to shift to a restraining rather than an encouraging role.

We are also seeing the EU taking on some elements of a military alliance. Perhaps most striking is Germany, which has now pledged to increase its total percentage of GDP spent on its military to 2%. This is something the U.S. has been pushing for in vain for years. The Germans shifted on a dime on this in like 48 hours. A new poll shows that the majority of Finns now support joining NATO, a move the Finnish government has expressed an openness to in recent days. This morning Switzerland announced it would join the EU banking sanctions.

We need to focus on getting through this crisis in one piece before giving too much thought to the world order we’ll find on the other side of it. But there’s little question that in Europe it will be a dramatically changed landscape.