Russia

[indy]

I don't believe this timeline is realistic but, regardless, it is a good indication of how truly devastated the Russian economy is going to be for decades to come.

[LFC]

I don't know the source but it sure paints a gloomy picture of the Russian economy.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is set to wipe out 15 years of economic development, undoing three quarters of all the progress President Vladimir Putin made in rebuilding Russia’s economy after he took office in 2000, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a note released on March 23.

“In this Macro Notes, we attempt a preliminary assessment of the impact on the Russian economy from international sanctions and other developments following the country’s invasion of Ukraine,” economists Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova wrote. “Altogether, our projections mean that current developments are set to wipe out the economic gains of roughly fifteen years.”

The numbers are still coming in and IIF says that the true impact of the sanctions and the economic shock they have caused will not be visible until the second quarter of this year, but a recent survey by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) of professional independent economists estimated that Russia was on course for between an 8% to 15% contraction in 2022.

IIF’s Hilgenstock and Ribakova put their own estimate at the long end of the scale, predicting a 15% contraction, but go on to say some of the damage done will have very long-term consequences that will hobble Russia’s ability to recover. As bne IntelliNews has reported, over the last 20 years each crisis has done progressively less damage but that is not going to be true this time; the harsh sanction regime will weigh the economy down significantly and very likely doom Russia to stagnation for the foreseeable future.

“At this point in time, we expect the Russian economy to contract by 15% in 2022 as domestic demand drops substantially, while a collapse in imports will outweigh a sharp decline of exports and keep the contribution from net foreign demand in positive territory,” IIF said.

Different parts of Russia’s economy will be affected differently. Imports will be worst affected thanks to the deep devaluation of the ruble, which should decline by about 35% quarter on quarter. Exports will be equally badly affected, dropping by some 30%.

Consumption, which accounts for about half of Russia’s economic activity, will decline by just under 25% but having such a large share of the economy will be one of the biggest negative growth factors. Likewise, investment will fall by circa 22% in the second quarter, but the slow-down on investment will take more time to gather momentum, but it will also have more long-lasting effects.

Yesterday Biden called for Russia to be booted from the G20.

[pnwguy]

Mar 25, 2022 12:52:48 GMT LFC said:

I don't know the source but it sure paints a gloomy picture of the Russian economy.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is set to wipe out 15 years of economic development, undoing three quarters of all the progress President Vladimir Putin made in rebuilding Russia’s economy after he took office in 2000, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a note released on March 23.

“In this Macro Notes, we attempt a preliminary assessment of the impact on the Russian economy from international sanctions and other developments following the country’s invasion of Ukraine,” economists Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova wrote. “Altogether, our projections mean that current developments are set to wipe out the economic gains of roughly fifteen years.”

The numbers are still coming in and IIF says that the true impact of the sanctions and the economic shock they have caused will not be visible until the second quarter of this year, but a recent survey by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) of professional independent economists estimated that Russia was on course for between an 8% to 15% contraction in 2022.

IIF’s Hilgenstock and Ribakova put their own estimate at the long end of the scale, predicting a 15% contraction, but go on to say some of the damage done will have very long-term consequences that will hobble Russia’s ability to recover. As bne IntelliNews has reported, over the last 20 years each crisis has done progressively less damage but that is not going to be true this time; the harsh sanction regime will weigh the economy down significantly and very likely doom Russia to stagnation for the foreseeable future.

“At this point in time, we expect the Russian economy to contract by 15% in 2022 as domestic demand drops substantially, while a collapse in imports will outweigh a sharp decline of exports and keep the contribution from net foreign demand in positive territory,” IIF said.

Different parts of Russia’s economy will be affected differently. Imports will be worst affected thanks to the deep devaluation of the ruble, which should decline by about 35% quarter on quarter. Exports will be equally badly affected, dropping by some 30%.

Consumption, which accounts for about half of Russia’s economic activity, will decline by just under 25% but having such a large share of the economy will be one of the biggest negative growth factors. Likewise, investment will fall by circa 22% in the second quarter, but the slow-down on investment will take more time to gather momentum, but it will also have more long-lasting effects.

Yesterday Biden called for Russia to be booted from the G20.

Will Russia be in the Iraqi's shoes with Saddam  -- suffering under a dictatorship they can't easily overthrow?

[LFC]

Waddya' know. If you run a country in a completely corrupt manner using an oligarchy that is also completely corrupt you end up having all sorts of things, like your military buildup, end up being executed in a corrupt manner. Who could have see THAT coming?

With the Russian military stagnating in its invasion of Ukraine and suffering significant losses of men and armaments, many are wondering what happened to the huge sums of money designated by the Kremlin to create a well-trained and well-equipped army. Former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev provided one answer on Twitter: “The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus.”

The man responsible for the invasion, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, who had no prior military service before he assumed his defense post in 2012, bears much of the blame for this alleged thievery and the military’s consequent failings in Ukraine.

More a politician and a friend of the oligarchs than a general, Shoigu began developing a personality cult as Russian Minister of Emergency Situations, a post he held from 1999 to 2012, followed by a brief stint as governor of the Moscow region. The first to appear on the scenes of disaster, he presented himself to the public as a hero who had come to the rescue, just as Putin did when he launched the war in Chechnya. Considered the second most popular public figure in the country, Shoigu was chosen by Putin to lead, along with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the candidates list of the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party for the Duma elections last September and has been mentioned as Putin’s possible successor.

As Minister of Defense, Shoigu vowed to continue the Kremlin’s ambitious plans for sweeping military reform, with a goal of modernizing 70 percent of Russian armed forces by 2020. Since then the Kremlin has spent tens of billions of dollars (roughly one third of the state budget) on defense, despite the country’s stagnating economy. But, judging from the campaign in Ukraine, the results of the modernization effort are seriously lacking.

The encrypted telephone system that Russian military planners introduced for secure battlefield communications, for example, can be intercepted by the Ukrainians, so officers and soldiers are using unsecured phones and radios. In addition to heavy casualties, logistical problems and desertions, there have been numerous reports of fuel shortages and Russian armored vehicles breaking down because of poor maintenance—all of which have slowed the Russian army’s advance.

General David Petraeus noted in a recent interview: “The Russians, starting with their intelligence assessments and understanding of the battlefield and their adversary, and then every aspect of the campaign, all the way down to small unit operations, have proved woefully inadequate.” This is not to mention Russia’s failure thus far to defeat the Ukrainian air force, despite its overwhelming advantage in numbers.

So where did all the money for Russia’s military overhaul go?

[LFC]

Putin and the Republican Party continue to echo each other's talking points. Fascists of a feather and all that.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chose to mark the 30th day of his war against Ukraine siding with Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling, who he said was a victim of the type of “cancel culture” the West is waging against Russia. In a somewhat unhinged address, Putin complained that the West was trying to erase Russian culture from the map, citing composers Pyotr Tchaikovsky, Dmitry Shostakovich and Sergei Rachmaninov, who he said had been “canceled” just like Rowling. “They canceled Joanne Rowling recently—the children’s author, her books are published all over the world—just because she didn’t satisfy the demands of gender rights,” he said in a televised address. “They are now trying to cancel our country. I’m talking about the progressive discrimination of everything to do with Russia.” He then likened his definition of “cancel culture” to the Nazis burning books during WWII. “We remember the footage when they were burning books,” he said. “It is impossible to imagine such a thing in our country and we are insured against this thanks to our culture.”

[LFC]

Good job, Vlad. You brought together an alliance that was frayed before Trump and fractured by him. Your puppet put in so much time and effort for you and you blew it in one dumb invasion.

When President Joe Biden landed in Europe this week, it was a different continent than he had last visited in the fall of 2021.

After a month of intensive fighting in Ukraine, Russia has killed at least 1,000 civilians while an unknown number (but reportedly thousands) of Russian soldiers have died. By invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has catalyzed some major shifts. Germany, long averse to military spending, has decided to up its defense budget. European countries, skeptical of migrants, have welcomed Ukrainian refugees. And most of all, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been revived.

Long a lethargic dinosaur of an organization, NATO this week announced new battle groups would deploy to four countries on its eastern flank, and Biden announced that the alliance would respond to Russia should it use chemical weapons in Ukraine. It’s a remarkable shift for an alliance that French President Emmanuel Macron called brain dead just two and a half years ago. And it reveals a fundamental truth of the organization: It’s an alliance meant to counter a great power adversary, for good and bad.

Biden, who has long cheered the relationship between the United States and Europe, met 29 other heads of state and the secretary general of NATO for a closed-door meeting Thursday, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joined by video. “Today’s establishment of four new battle groups in Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary is a strong signal that we will collectively defend and protect every inch of NATO territory,” Biden said.

NATO summits, it might be said, are not usually very substantive. The family photo of recognizable world leaders is often the most memorable moment from these largely symbolic affairs. But NATO, an alliance forged to push back against Soviet influence in Europe during the Cold War, is designed for crisis.

Beau of The Fifth Column had a video about NATO not becoming directly involved in the fighting. The responses he saw were ... interesting.

[goldenvalley]

Putin proved to everyone that NATO is still necessary.  We're not so post Cold War that it needs to be disbanded.

[LFC]

They're hurting so badly they can't even sell all of their oil.

Russia’s economy is in shambles, and the value of the ruble has plummeted as the country finds itself increasingly isolated from global trade in the wake of its war on Ukraine. The country is even having a hard time finding buyers for its oil, in part because the global oil market is dominated by the US dollar.

Russia’s difficulty in selling its oil might be why it is considering alternative payment methods, including bitcoin. Pavel Zavalny, chair of the State Duma’s committee on energy, floated the idea at a press conference this week, the BBC reported.

“We have been proposing to China for a long time to switch to settlements in national currencies for rubles and yuan. With Turkey, it will be lira and rubles,” Zavalny said. “You can also trade bitcoins.”

The change would reportedly apply only to countries that Russia feels are “friendly.” Recently, China and India have been scooping up cheap oil from the country as the US and other countries have barred its purchase. The price of a barrel of Russia’s flagship crude, Urals, is selling for $17–$33 less than a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The Russian federal budget is heavily reliant on oil and gas sales.

[indy]

Last I heard they were trying to demand payment in rubles for currently existing contracts that specified euros (gas) or dollars (oil). That didn't go very well for them.

[LFC]

Mar 25, 2022 19:29:00 GMT indy said:

Last I heard they were trying to demand payment in rubles for currently existing contracts that specified euros (gas) or dollars (oil). That didn't go very well for them.

That's actually mentioned in my link above. Apparently they're also hoping to do a deal with China that would avoid the use of U.S. Dollars or Euros.

[indy]

Mar 25, 2022 19:52:30 GMT LFC said:

Mar 25, 2022 19:29:00 GMT indy said:

Last I heard they were trying to demand payment in rubles for currently existing contracts that specified euros (gas) or dollars (oil). That didn't go very well for them.

That's actually mentioned in my link above. Apparently they're also hoping to do a deal with China that would avoid the use of U.S. Dollars or Euros.

That's actually a pretty interesting relationship to me. Russia doesn't believe in equality in their international relations. Note the difference, for example, between how one joins NATO, and how one 'joins' the Russian federation. Guess who else isn't keen on equal international relations? Russian national pride (i.e, their centuries-old inferiority complex) will not allow them to be in a subservient position yet China holds ALL the cards. I don't give that alliance much of a long-term chance of success. Can you imagine Xi double-checking with Russia before acting?

[LFC]

A bit of head scratching from a TPM reader. (I had to look up OODA loop.)

After reading your posts on the latest proclamations from Russia’s General Staff, I find myself scratching my head (figuratively) and muttering, “I don’t get it” (also figuratively).

Specifically, I don’t see how these comments set the conditions for an end to the war on terms other than an abject Russian retreat.

I mean — let’s consider a fairly optimistic outcome for Russia, which is: Russia holds onto significantly more of eastern Ukraine than was already under their control prior to all this, but withdraws their forces from the rest of the country. What happens next? After all of the combat that’s taken place in the part of Ukraine that remains under Russia’s control, are the Russian forces even as welcome as they were a year ago? My guess — no. In the absence of even local acceptance of the occupation, does the rest of the world recognize the breakaway regions as either independent or as annexed by Russia? My guess — no. Without that recognition, how does Russia get out from under international sanctions? How do they maintain order in those regions, and prevent an insurgency that’s materially supported by the rest of the world? How does the destruction from the war in those regions get fixed by a bankrupt occupying power that’s under siege by a domestic insurrection?

My sense of the situation is that Russia has two things it needs to achieve right now. The first is to get their armed forces out of the crosshairs of the Ukrainian Army; the second is to get as much of the sanctions package lifted as it possibly can. It seems to me that as long as Russia intends to hold onto pretty much any territory that’s within Ukraine’s recognized national borders, neither of these things can or will happen.

I kind of get the impression that the Russian military’s OODA loop is simply too long. The position they’ve taken today could potentially have worked out for them if they’d taken it a couple of weeks ago. Since then, though, the ongoing deterioration of their position in Ukraine, both in terms of the military situation and the hatred they’ve engendered through their attacks on civilians, has put a solution on this basis out of reach. They really need to do a better job keeping up with current events…

[indy]

This whole escapade made little sense to begin with so I'm not sure it's worth trying to make sense of now. Besides sanctions the west has control of 200-300 billion of Russia's reserves. Before any talk of lifting sanctions begins, there needs to be a discussion about reparations.

[LFC]

Mar 25, 2022 21:00:31 GMT indy said:

Before any talk of lifting sanctions begins, there needs to be a discussion about reparations.

"You break it, you bought it" works at the nation level as well.

[LFC]

Greenpeace is helping people track oil tankers to see who is doing business with the Russians.

First there was the Russian oligarch jet tracker; then there was the Russian oligarch yacht tracker; now there’s the Russian oil tanker tracker.

The new tool comes from data scientists at Greenpeace UK, who created an automated bot that draws from public data to tweet about the movements of oil and gas tankers leaving Russian ports. The goal, Greenpeace says, is to cut off one of Russia’s main revenue sources that’s helping fuel President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Russia draws considerable revenue from oil and gas—about 40 percent of its federal budget relies on fossil fuel royalties—which means that tankers fulfilling contracts are essentially contributing to Russia’s war machine. By tweeting the origin, identity, and destination of tankers that have docked at Russian ports, Greenpeace is hoping to shame companies and countries into shunning oil and gas purchases from the country.

“That’s a really important hypocrisy to highlight politically,” Georgia Whitaker, an oil campaigner at Greenpeace UK, told Protocol. “Politicians are saying all the right things, but they’re not necessarily putting that into action.”

Greenpeace claims that activists have already diverted a tanker that was headed for Sweden.

To be fair, none of the shipments is illegal yet. The Twitter bot soft-launched on March 11, just days after President Joe Biden announced an executive order banning imports of Russian oil and gas and the same day Australia announced it would do the same. With the executive order, the Biden administration banned new contracts effective immediately and gave existing orders 45 days to complete delivery. The UK government said it will also phase out the purchase of Russian fossil fuels, but it’s giving buyers until the end of the year to wind things down. No EU countries have enacted bans on Russian oil or gas.

Russian tankers are increasingly in hiding.

The tanker bot faces a new challenge, though, one that governments enforcing sanctions will also struggle to surmount. Windward, an Israeli maritime risk consultancy, says that at least 33 Russian tankers turned off their AIS transponders last week, twice the average rate over the past year, according to a Bloomberg report. Most “dark” operations occurred near Russian shores. In some cases, Windward followed ships as they loitered next to other tankers for a few hours, potentially transferring oil from one to the other.

This behavior isn’t new. A few years ago, Russian ships were caught turning off their transponders to deliver oil to Syria, the US Treasury Department said: “[V]essels carrying petroleum to Syria have been known to disable their AIS transponders to mask their movements.”

International maritime law requires tankers and other commercial vessels to keep their transponders on while at sea, and while that may not prevent captains or owners intent on breaking the law, it does help narrow the search for ships participating in illicit activities. “There’s no reason why they should have their AIS turned off,” Windward’s Gur Sender told Bloomberg.

[LFC]

Everyday Russians continue feeling the bite of sanctions. They're panic buying even when there hasn't been a ban.

As Western countries continue to ratchet up sanctions and boycotts against Russia, the country's citizens are panic-buying medicines, such as antidepressants, sleeping pills, and contraceptives, according to Reuters.

Between February 28 and March 13, Russians bought 270.5 million pharmaceutical items worth about $104 billion, according to sales data compiled for the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti. That two weeks' worth of buying was comparable to what Russians bought at pharmacies for the entire month of January, which saw purchases of 280 million pharmaceutical items.

The analysis, carried out by Russian analytics company DSM Group, found that demand increased sharply for medicines, including antidepressants, sleeping pills, insulin, cancer and heart drugs, hormones, and contraceptives.

The surge is due to "fear," Sergei Shulyak, general director of DSM Group, told Reuters. "The first fear was that everything could get more expensive," he said, "and the second fear was that medicines they need won't be available in some time. Those fears moved people. They stood in lines at pharmacies and bought everything."

While Western countries and high-profile companies, such as Apple and McDonald's, have imposed various punishing economic sanctions and boycotts, the pharmaceutical industry has largely resisted cutting Russians off. Many drug makers—and some ethicists—say that pharmaceutical companies have a humanitarian obligation to continue supplying vulnerable patients in the country with life-saving drugs, such as insulin, cancer therapies, cardiovascular drugs, and products for infants and pregnancy.

Earlier this month, Pfizer released a statement saying that it would "maintain humanitarian supply of medicines to Russians and donate all proceeds to providing direct humanitarian support to the people of Ukraine." In a March 13 interview on CBS's Face the Nation, Pfizer CEO Alberta Bourla elaborated, saying that the company's activity in Russia accounted for "maybe less than half a percent of our total revenue," but that war-time restrictions "don't apply to medicines because it's about lives."

[andydp]

You get what you pay for.  When you surround yourself with toadies you get bupkus.

Ukraine war: Putin being misled by fearful advisers, US says

Earlier, White House spokesperson Kate Bedingfield said the US had information that Mr Putin "felt misled by the Russian military" and this had resulted in "persistent tension between Putin and his military leadership".

"Putin's war has been a strategic blunder that has left Russia weaker over the long term and increasingly isolated on the world stage," she said.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60936117

Comment:  If you tell the truth, you get a "special" umbrella to use when you go out for coffee

[LFC]

Putin continues to put his foot on the accelerator of Europe deciding to free itself from any dependence on Russian gas and oil. I don't know what he expects will happen other than a rush to renewables, nuclear, and other sources of fossil fuels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that all EU purchases of Russian gas must be made in roubles starting April 1, a demand immediately rejected by French and German officials who said they were preparing for a possible halt in Russian supplies. Europe will not be "blackmailed" by Putin, Germany's economy minister said.

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday warned "unfriendly" countries, including all EU members, that they would be cut off from Russian gas unless they opened an account in roubles to pay for deliveries.

"They must open rouble accounts in Russian banks. It is from these accounts that payments will be made for gas delivered starting tomorrow, April 1," Putin said during a televised government meeting.

"If such payments are not made, we will consider this a breach of obligations on the part of our buyers with all the ensuing consequences," Putin said.

Germany and France rejected Vladimir Putin's demand that foreign purchasers of Russian gas pay in roubles as an unacceptable breach of contract, adding that the maneuver amounted to “blackmail”.

Germany Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that Germany was prepared for all scenarios, including a stoppage of Russian gas flows to Europe. "It is important for us not to give a signal that we will be blackmailed by Putin."

[goldenvalley]

Mar 31, 2022 21:08:10 GMT LFC said:

Putin continues to put his foot on the accelerator of Europe deciding to free itself from any dependence on Russian gas and oil. I don't know what he expects will happen other than a rush to renewables, nuclear, and other sources of fossil fuels.

When Trump returns to the presidency with Putin's aid, all that nonsense about non fossil fuel will end.

[pnwguy]

Mar 31, 2022 22:31:12 GMT goldenvalley said:

Mar 31, 2022 21:08:10 GMT LFC said:

Putin continues to put his foot on the accelerator of Europe deciding to free itself from any dependence on Russian gas and oil. I don't know what he expects will happen other than a rush to renewables, nuclear, and other sources of fossil fuels.

When Trump returns to the presidency with Putin's aid, all that nonsense about non fossil fuel will end.

Perhaps Dumpster 47 will blackmail NATO countries by threatening to quit the alliance UNLESS they purchase MORE Russian oil and gas.  He's got to pay back Putin somehow, or Vlad will be forced to terminate his best American asset. 

[andydp]

One more for the dossier.

Putin was visited by a cancer surgeon dozens of times in 4 years and takes rejuvenating baths in deer antler blood, says Russian investigative news outlet

Russian President Vladimir Putin was visited by a thyroid cancer doctor 35 times, new investigation claims.

Russian investigative news outlet Proekt revealed that a team of doctors frequently visited the 69-year-old Russian president at his residences or accompanied him on trips amid growing questions about his health.

Yevgeny Selivanov, an oncology surgeon, specializing in thyroid cancer, flew to visit Putin at his Black Sea residence 35 times and spent 166 days in his presence, the report said.

Two otolaryngologists, or ear, nose, and throat specialists, Igor Esakov and Alexei Shcheglov, visited the Russian president even more frequently.

Alexei Shcheglov flew to see Putin 59 times and spent a total of 282 days with him between 2016 and 2020, according to the report.

Thyroid diseases, including cancer, are typically first diagnosed by an otolaryngologist, after which an oncologist and a surgeon become involved in the treatment, a doctor told Proekt.

The outlet determined which doctors spent time with Putin at his residence in Sochi by examining hotel accommodation contracts published on the government procurement website.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-was-visited-by-a-cancer-surgeon-dozens-of-times-in-4-years-and-takes-rejuvenating-baths-in-deer-antler-blood-says-russian-investigative-news-outlet/ar-AAVMKJE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f55b79e89a624e66ab9dcb6bc01367e3

[andydp]

I'm happy to see Anonymous is making life a bit hard for the Russian Government.  This sort of hacking is enough trouble since its very disruptive of systems and organizations.  As I stated the real problem would be to hack command and control systems which would alarm the Russians to deploy the wrong stuff. 


Anonymous Leaks Personal Data of 120K Russian Soldiers Fighting in Ukraine


Anonymous, the famed hacker collective, claimed on Sunday that they leaked the personal information of 120,000 Russian soldiers allegedly fighting in Ukraine.

The soldiers' information, which included their names, dates of birth, addresses, unit affiliation and passport numbers, were leaked as the Russian military faces heightened scrutiny over alleged human rights abuses in the Ukrainian town of Bucha. Reports of civilians in the town who were shot to death with their hands tied behind their backs while corpses being spotted in yards, cars and streets have been circulating.

"All soldiers participating in the invasion of Ukraine should be subjected to a war crime tribunal," the group wrote in a tweet announcing the leak.

The leak appeared on the Ukrainian version of Russian news outlet Pravda where more than 6,000 pages of documents containing the soldiers' information could be seen.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/anonymous-leaks-personal-data-of-120k-russian-soldiers-fighting-in-ukraine/ar-AAVOGp5?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=64da43418cf54d2cb3af7e52b2697552

[LFC]

Putin has hit the limitations of his readily deployable military (paywalled). At this point it becomes a much more political decision to get the manpower he needs. Be sure to read the analysis at the link.

As I’ve mentioned to you before, I continue to find Michael Kofman, who works at CNA, the big Navy think tank, the most measured and informative analyst for information on the war in Ukraine. Today he posted a Twitter thread which has as many questions as answers. But there’s a key dynamic I want to highlight. We tend to make fun of the Russian insistence on calling the Ukraine war a ‘special military operation.’ But this turns out to have important real world implications.

As Kofman explains, the Russian military is pretty close to tapped out in terms of manpower in its peacetime army. They’re trying to pressure or entice conscripts at the end of their terms of service to re-up under contracts. They’re trying to bring other soldiers back from foreign deployments. They’re trying to get recent veterans to re-up as contractors. But this is piecemeal, largely a matter of filling current gaps and replenishing losses suffered over the last month. There’s just not that much more to draw on. They have plenty more equipment to make up for all the hardware they’ve lost in Ukraine. They don’t have a lot more manpower.

But that’s as long as it stays a ‘special military option’. If Putin says the country is at war that can potentially change substantially. Part of the difference, in addition to other wartime powers, is that he then has the legal power to extend the terms of conscripts whose terms of service are ending. But the bigger issue is a political one. He’s conducting this war on the premise that it’s a manageable military option of limited scope. If he puts the country on a war footing, with all that involves in terms of a wartime economy, forcing military age men into active service and more the equation and resources at his disposal can change a lot. Remember that Russia’s population is more than three times the size of Ukraine’s.

Recent polling and other reporting suggests at least a major rally round the flag effect in Russia. The war is very popular and Putin is very popular. But how deep is that popularity? Does Putin believe taking such a step is political viable for him?

Read the thread linked above. It’s interesting.

[LFC]

There are still plenty of those in Russia who want to keep waging this war until they get every last thing they want.

Ukrainians aren’t the only ones worried about giving up too much in peace talks.

Putative talks over a potential peace deal between the two countries led to an outcry among a vocal core of Russians against anything other than Ukraine’s unconditional surrender.

“A peace agreement with Ukraine will not only be a mistake, but it will be a betrayal,” Igor Korotchenko, a member of the civil council of Russia’s Ministry of Defense and a commentator, wrote on Telegram this week.

Many, including Korotchenko, compared any agreement with Ukraine at this stage to the Khasavyurt Accord, which brought the first Chechen war to an end under Boris Yeltsin in 1996. That agreement saw Russia agree to withdraw its forces from Chechnya in exchange for its capital, Grozny, being demilitarized.

Three years later, Russia invaded Chechnya again, with then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announcing the start of the land war. Putin gained massive public support during the course of that war, and took over from Yeltsin as President at the end of 1999.

Sasha Kots, a war reporter for the pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda tabloid, made the comparison explicitly.

“If we’re about to sign another Khasavyurt agreement, then you have to remember that the Second Chechen war followed next,” he said. “And the main thing is to be offended on behalf of the fallen.”

It’s not clear how real the willingness is on the Russian side to negotiate with Ukraine, but what emerged from the talks in Turkey was a proposal that some Russian negotiators said would be acceptable. Ukraine would renounce its NATO ambitions and agree to take the questions of Crimea and the proxy republics off the table for the foreseeable future.

Egor Kholmogorov, a Russian nationalist pundit, wrote on Telegram that a peace deal would be “recognizing the defeat of Russia and victory of Ukraine in a ‘war of independence.'”

“The consequences of such an agreement for Russia will be catastrophic,” he added.

Others who have been directly involved in Russian military operations have made similar critiques.

[pnwguy]

Apr 4, 2022 17:53:04 GMT LFC said:

There are still plenty of those in Russia who want to keep waging this war until they get every last thing they want.

Ukrainians aren’t the only ones worried about giving up too much in peace talks.

Putative talks over a potential peace deal between the two countries led to an outcry among a vocal core of Russians against anything other than Ukraine’s unconditional surrender.

“A peace agreement with Ukraine will not only be a mistake, but it will be a betrayal,” Igor Korotchenko, a member of the civil council of Russia’s Ministry of Defense and a commentator, wrote on Telegram this week.

Many, including Korotchenko, compared any agreement with Ukraine at this stage to the Khasavyurt Accord, which brought the first Chechen war to an end under Boris Yeltsin in 1996. That agreement saw Russia agree to withdraw its forces from Chechnya in exchange for its capital, Grozny, being demilitarized.

Three years later, Russia invaded Chechnya again, with then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announcing the start of the land war. Putin gained massive public support during the course of that war, and took over from Yeltsin as President at the end of 1999.

Sasha Kots, a war reporter for the pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda tabloid, made the comparison explicitly.

“If we’re about to sign another Khasavyurt agreement, then you have to remember that the Second Chechen war followed next,” he said. “And the main thing is to be offended on behalf of the fallen.”

It’s not clear how real the willingness is on the Russian side to negotiate with Ukraine, but what emerged from the talks in Turkey was a proposal that some Russian negotiators said would be acceptable. Ukraine would renounce its NATO ambitions and agree to take the questions of Crimea and the proxy republics off the table for the foreseeable future.

Egor Kholmogorov, a Russian nationalist pundit, wrote on Telegram that a peace deal would be “recognizing the defeat of Russia and victory of Ukraine in a ‘war of independence.'”

“The consequences of such an agreement for Russia will be catastrophic,” he added.

Others who have been directly involved in Russian military operations have made similar critiques.

We can assume that Putin has analyzed enough Fox News to hyper-charge his own state media.  Average Russians have likely lost brain cells at similar rates as MAGAts.