Coronavirus, Monkeypox, and Other Contagious Diseases

[LFC]

DeSantis is dead set on making more people dead.

Despite data showing that COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing serious illness from the Delta variant, some Florida hospitals are still being overwhelmed by virus patients who are mostly unvaccinated. The New York Times found two University of Florida hospitals in Jacksonville that are grappling with the highest number of COVID-19 patients they’ve had since the start of the pandemic, with growing fear over when it may actually end. “It’s very frustrating,” Dr. Leon Haley, chief executive of UF Health Jacksonville, told the Times. “Each day we continue to go up. There’s no sense of when things are going to curtail themselves. People are stretched thin.” Haley said 90 percent of patients were unvaccinated, while the remaining vaccinated population had comorbidities or were on immunosuppressant drugs.

Local officials are citing the growing misinformation around vaccines as the source of the uptick, but both they and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis are adamantly opposed to imposing new COVID measures. DeSantis took it a step further Thursday, saying he would call a special legislative session if President Joe Biden tried to implement a mask mandate in schools.

[LFC]

The NFL just dropped a hammer on the players. I don't think I quite agree with this, or at least not all of it, but it certainly does place the responsibility squarely on the unvaccinated players. Peer pressure, especially when money is involved, can be a powerful force.

Though neither player explicitly said so, odds are their airing of grievances was prompted by the league itself. Earlier on Thursday, a league-wide memo was sent announcing there would be no rejiggering of its 17-game schedule to accommodate a possible COVID-19 outbreak, as first reported by the NFL Network’s Tom Pellissero.

Instead, a team that can’t suit up enough players would forfeit the game. If that wasn’t enough incentive, no one on the team in question or their opponent that week would receive their paychecks. For a minimum-salaried NFL player, it would amount to about a $39,000 fine. Star players could be docked seven figures, some of whom invariably will have done nothing wrong.

Last month, the NFL waved a similarly menacing stick. During the 2021 season, unvaccinated players would be subject to greater restrictions than their vaccinated brethren—daily testing, physical restrictions both on the road and in team facilities, lengthy quarantines for exposure, no hanging out with teammates at various bars and hotspots, and more.

Despite league owners’ conservative leanings and hefty GOP donations, when it comes to making sure their extremely valuable enterprise continues to chug along, those politics stop at the locker-room door. By whatever means necessary and in conjunction with the players’ union, they’re going to nudge their workforce into getting the jab.

The brow-furrowing by Hopkins and Fournette attracted plenty of attention—and probably a phalanx of agents and representatives frantically scrambling to get their clients on the blower—but in reality, the NFL’s and NFLPA’s efforts have mostly paid off. Pro football players outrank many fellow Americans in their age group when it comes to getting vaccinated. According to Judy Battista of NFL Media, 14 teams have hit the 85 percent threshold and 78 percent of all players have received their first dose.

[LFC]

TPM has observations on behavior from a reader who traveled from Minnesota to Texas and back.

I realize that this anecdotal, but our family travelled from MN to TX and back a couple months ago. We were two fully-vaccinated adults (Pfizer) and an unvaccinated under 12-year old. Because of that we played it very safe. At the time, people in the Twin Cities were still masking everywhere. Even in the part of TX where we went we saw 50-60% of people masked in stores and gas station.

However, in our one stop in OK and one in KS about 33% were masked. But, in MO, I don’t think we saw a mask. We spent the night in a hotel in Joplin, MO. We got in late and very few restaurants were open. The Waffle House wouldn’t let you take food out (?!) so we went elsewhere. But we noticed one thing… The Waffle House was PACKED. Like a subway car in Tokyo. Lots of motorcycles in the parking lot. And, if you know anything about a packed Waffle House late at night, that means people have been to bars. Meanwhile, no one in the hotel was masked. No one at a gas station was masked. And there were more people out than we would have thought. When we got back to the Twin Cities, there were still few people out and most of them were masked. From that point on I paid attention to MO and I’ve been watching from afar, unsurprised, that their number just kept going up and up. Actions matter.

[LFC]

Another TPM reader lays out a checklist of points concerning where we're at, what we might expect, and what we don't know.

1. The ferocity of the upsurge, at least as measured by new cases has taken me aback to a large degree. Ashish Jha and Scott Gottlieb are my go to sources and I don’t think they expected to see this kind of upsurge in cases.

2. That said, I think you put your finger the other day on a key issue, i.e., that it’s really hard to know how we should be measuring cases among the vaccinated. The line between mild/asymptomatic and the antibodies did exactly what they were supposed to do but there’s enough Covid particles for a positive PCR test is not just blurry but almost impossible to define.

3. But … to get downbeat again … I’m surprised at the number of breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths. Wasn’t the thinking that vaccines were 99.5% effective against hospitalizations? It’s looking more like 97% or so. That’s five times as many breakthrough hospitalizations as expected. And the situation with deaths looks similar. If we get up to 1,000 deaths every day we could see 30 vaccinated Covid deaths per day.

4. One of the reasons I dwell on the above is I fear that the protective effects of the vaccines are being oversold a bit and I’m not sure the country is being prepared for that level of breakthrough deaths. Of course the vaccines are overwhelmingly compelling, but I do fear that the case is being overstated a bit.

5.It is more confusing than ever to figure out what measures one should take. I’m in Boston and not planning on doing anything different. But in a few weeks when cases per 100,000 gets significantly over 10? I’m not sure.

6. On the positive side, my sense is that it takes these surges take a couple of months to hit their peak and then cases start falling quickly. I was thinking about that even before it began to look like the UK is peaking right on schedule with cases hinting at a sharp U-turn. Overall, I expect hysteria over Delta to reach a fever pitch in a few weeks and then fade away pretty quickly as we get into late August.

7. Will the Delta surge in November/December/January be a lot worse than the current surge, or will marginal increases in vaccinations together with a ton of infection-based immunity mean it’s not that bad? Who knows!

[Traveler]

That is optimistic about peaking next month. See that model I posted above.

[goldenvalley]

The US is not the only country that has anti-mask, anti vaccine "passport" folks.  There are protests in Australia, France, Italy, and England too. 

Apparently the Australian government has not been getting a message that criticizing the people that oppose masks, lock downs, etc is a counterproductive thing.   

Prime Minister Scott Morrison criticized the weekend’s protests in Sydney and other Australian cities.
“It achieves no purpose,” he said, the Guardian reported. “It won’t end the lockdown sooner.”
Other Australian leaders issued similar condemnations.

“It just broke my heart that people had such a disregard for their fellow citizens,” New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said, adding that she was “utterly disgusted.”

“Sydney isn’t immune from morons,” New South Wales Police Minister David Elliott said Sunday, according to the Guardian.

[pnwguy]

Jul 25, 2021 16:08:37 GMT goldenvalley said:

“Sydney isn’t immune from morons,” New South Wales Police Minister David Elliott said Sunday, according to the Guardian.

Of course not.  It's the home of Rupert Murdoch, so they have been spoon-fed "journalistic" insanity even longer than the US.  No surprise to see England on that list too.

How's that brimstone chamber progress, Beezlebuddy?  When is your boss going to collect on his claim?  Take the offspring at the same time, I say.

[Traveler]

Time for your weekly news feed. First, looks like even Pfizer loses its effectiveness over time. 

Data released by the Health Ministry on Thursday suggested that people vaccinated in January were said to have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April the effectiveness was at 75%

A lot of that finding is due to the fact that the cohort vaccinated first had the most comorbidities. 

That said, another study showed the vaccine IS still effective against Delta, just not as much.  

Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the delta variant as compared with the alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked after the receipt of the first dose. This finding would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable populations.

Regardless, looks like we are in for many breakthrough cases.  Then the issue is how to define "mild".  

As I spoke to my colleague about it, he was still sifting through exactly what he was feeling. He’d forgotten how miserable being sick is, for one thing, and his case—a “mild one” by medical definitions—knocked him out for about a day and a half. 

[Rue Bella]

Time for your weekly news feed. First, looks like even Pfizer loses its effectiveness over time.

There was an interesting video I saw on this yesterday. To some extent the issue in effectiveness is in regard to what - preventing the disease in the first place, vs how sick will you get if/when you do get it. 

Apparently effectiveness in Pfizer is waning as seen in Israel where Pfizer is the most commonly used vaccine - and widely available earlier than most other places. More fully vaccinated people are getting COVID. Going by memory here, but after about 6 months, preventing the disease is down to 40-ish percent. It never was 100%. And these break-through cases are for mainly people who got their second dose at the 3 week recommended interval. (Moderna IIRC has a 4 wk interval) 

For those who got the second dose at 8 to 12 weeks or so, the effectiveness is still much greater. In the US, they were pretty much following the recommended 3 weeks spacing for Pfizer. In the UK, they were attempting to get more people the first dose asap, so the second dose was delayed for many/most. At the time, even in the US, it was believed by 'those in the know' that delaying would offer better immunity, but when the shot was available, 'we' went for it. I remember at the time thinking it was better to wait for this reason, but at the time, shots were scarce, so when a slot was available...  you were happy to get it.

But that part of effectiveness just addresses getting/preventing an active form of the disease. Apparently, even if you do get active COVID, the vaccine is around 88% effective in preventing serious disease requiring hospitilization and death. So this part is still good. 88% for Delta vs just over 90% for previous variants. 

[AnBr]

.

Attachments:

[pnwguy]

Jul 26, 2021 13:54:50 GMT AnBr said:

.

The Pro Life Party!  

Don't do anything to harm that embryo.  It should only die from hunger, Covid (because I won't get vaccinated), gun shot (because I was standing my ground in Wal-Mart with my open-carry AR-15), or other God-ordained way.

When will Republicans start collecting blankets from hospitals where the patients died of Covid, to sell at Goodwill stores?

[Rue Bella]

The Pro Life Party!

Don't do anything to harm that embryo. It should only die from hunger, Covid (because I won't get vaccinated), gun shot (because I was standing my ground in Wal-Mart with my open-carry AR-15), or other God-ordained way.

Don't forget capital punishment.

And of course AIDS - perverts deserve what they get...  unless they are priests.

[Deleted]

Jul 26, 2021 14:56:06 GMT pnwguy said:

Jul 26, 2021 13:54:50 GMT AnBr said:

.

The Pro Life Party!  

Don't do anything to harm that embryo.  It should only die from hunger, Covid (because I won't get vaccinated), gun shot (because I was standing my ground in Wal-Mart with my open-carry AR-15), or other God-ordained way.

When will Republicans start collecting blankets from hospitals where the patients died of Covid, to sell at Goodwill stores?

I distrust the federal government. I am waiting for full FDA approval before I consider taking the Covid-19 vaccines. 

[LFC]

Shorter Major Health Care Professional Organizations: "You don't have to give up work but you can't work here."

Major Health Care Professional Organizations Call for COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates for All Health Workers

Groups include American Medical Association, American Nurses Association, National Medical Association, National Hispanic Medical Association, American Academy of Pediatrics, and Association of American Medical Colleges

(July 26, 2021) With COVID-19 case counts rising amid the spread of the Delta variant, more than 50 health care professional societies and organizations called for all health care employers to require their employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in a joint statement released today. These societies and organizations represent millions of workers throughout health and long-term care – from doctors and nurses to pharmacists and physician assistants, from public health workers and epidemiologists to long-term care, home care, and hospice workers.

Their endorsement of mandatory COVID-19 vaccination for health care workers aims to protect the safety of patients and residents of long-term care facilities and make the health care sector a leader in COVID-19 vaccination just as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are once again rising throughout the United States.

[LFC]

Thoughts and prayers, motherf***er.

A conservative radio host in Tennessee, who repeatedly spread misinformation about coronavirus and mocked vaccines but changed his tune after falling seriously ill, was still fighting for his life on Saturday, weeks after contracting the virus.

Phil Valentine, who hosts a talk radio show on 99.7 WWTN-FM in Nashville, is hospitalized and is receiving supplemental oxygen while in critical care battling COVID pneumonia, his family said in a statement Friday.

“They say he is still not getting well.. please pray for me,” his wife, Susan, told the station on Saturday morning, according to a tweet. “I am at a breaking point.”

[Rue Bella]

“They say he is still not getting well.. please pray for me,”

Okey-dokey... I'll pray you get long covid.  


(Of course I won't. Mostly.)

[Deleted]

Jul 26, 2021 21:43:14 GMT LFC said:

Thoughts and prayers, motherf***er.

[pnwguy]

"New business opportunity for investors. Get on board now! You can start selling respirators and oxygen equipment in the southeastern US. Lock in distribution contracts for body bags and cremation urns too. Great profits to be made in new nursing care facilities for Long Covid patients. Free-Dumb means wins for savvy capitalists. Send for your free booklet on how to profit from the coming Idiocracy."

www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/27/ozarks-lake-covid-unvaccinated-500784

[Bact PhD]

Jul 27, 2021 15:47:47 GMT pnwguy said:

"New business opportunity for investors. Get on board now! You can start selling respirators and oxygen equipment in the southeastern US. Lock in distribution contracts for body bags and cremation urns too. Great profits to be made in new nursing care facilities for Long Covid patients. Free-Dumb means wins for savvy capitalists. Send for your free booklet on how to profit from the coming Idiocracy."

If only this were a joke…bets some folks are already cutting checks.

[pnwguy]

Jul 27, 2021 16:09:15 GMT Bact PhD said:

Jul 27, 2021 15:47:47 GMT pnwguy said:

"New business opportunity for investors. Get on board now! You can start selling respirators and oxygen equipment in the southeastern US. Lock in distribution contracts for body bags and cremation urns too. Great profits to be made in new nursing care facilities for Long Covid patients. Free-Dumb means wins for savvy capitalists. Send for your free booklet on how to profit from the coming Idiocracy."

If only this were a joke…bets some folks are already cutting checks.

And the really smart ones are looking to secure Brawndo distributorships

[LFC]

Here comes the right-wing childish meltdown in 3, 2, ...

The White House on Tuesday moved to require vaccinations for all federal employees and contractors, as well as mask mandates for all visitors to the campus regardless of vaccination status as the Delta variant spreads nationwide causing a spike in COVID-19 infections, especially amongst the unvaccinated.

CNN first reported that President Biden will announce on Thursday a requirement for all federal employees and contractors to be inoculated against COVID-19, or be required to submit to regular testing and mitigation requirements.

CNN noted that specifics are still being finalized on the vaccination mandate for federal workers, but would be similar to the vaccination or weekly testing requirements for all city workers in New York City. Additional requirements for the unvaccinated are also under consideration.

The President does not plan to require vaccinations on the U.S. military currently. However, Biden is expected to outline how the Department of Defense may seek to approach the issue, according to CNN.

Biden’s upcoming announcement follows the Department of Veterans Affairs’ requirement for all frontline health care workers to be vaccinated within the next two months.

Earlier Tuesday, the President signaled that a vaccination mandate on federal workers is “under consideration right now.”

[LFC]

Here's the CDC's county level breakdown of new COVID cases in the past 7 days. Welcome to the Deep Dumb South.

[jackd]

Especially Florida which ought to know better.

[LFC]

Josh Marshall published a piece called Out of Patience with the CDC? Grow the F Up.

I will get to some points about the CDC’s updated masking policy in a moment. But first a few points about the CDC’s decision-making generally. I thought the earlier decision to end the masking guidance for the vaccinated was a mistake. I think the CDC was trying to balance the evolving science with immense public pressure to offer what amounts to a reward for vaccination, to declare the pandemic over or show the benefits of vaccination.

But after yesterday’s updated policy or reversal I kept seeing comments on Twitter, headlines in OpEds and comments from people on TV saying, “That’s it!” “That’s the final nail in the coffin of the CDC’s credibility!” Or ‘the experts’ or Fauci or whoever else. “First it was no masks! Now masks are back! Which is it??!?!!?”

Really people need to get the f*#$ over themselves.

COVID is an evolving pathogen. Our knowledge of it is evolving. We’re basically conducting, against our will, a live subject study with the entire human population. Science isn’t a book with all the answers. It’s an empirical process. By its nature it’s tentative and evolving. We are learning about the efficacy of the best vaccines. We’re learning about Delta COVID. And we’re trying to figure out how the two interact.

This isn’t a brief for anyone at CDC. Like I said, I think they’ve gotten some key decisions wrong, in ways I’ll describe in a moment. Mostly they are not clinical decisions but decisions which have sought to balance the available scientific knowledge with evolving public opinion. Or to be more specific, they are cases where they have sought to balance it with what we might call very understandable public exhaustion.

The fact is that we are living through an historic global pandemic. It’s complicated. We’re collectively having to make big decisions without anywhere near enough knowledge. It will continue to be bumpy. The problem isn’t that the CDC doesn’t have enough wizards to wave wands to make it disappear for you. The problem is the virus. And we are not done with it.

The fact is that there are a lot of people, especially the MAGAts, that can't live in a world of unknowns and in this case actual changing facts on the ground. That's why they "know" everything. It's so much more comfortable.

[Bact PhD]

Jul 28, 2021 17:47:51 GMT jackd said:

Especially Florida which ought to know better.

You’re kidding, right? I don’t refer to it as “Flori-DUH” for nothin’!

In all seriousness, it’s hitting the denialist counties in the northern part of the state especially hard. “It’s all a hoax, so it can’t happen to me, right?”

On a sad note, one of Dear Daughter’s college buddies (whom she described as “28 and fit”) came down with a “breakthrough” case. Not to a point where hospitalization was necessary, but unpleasant nevertheless.