Brexit & Britain

[LFC]

The floodgates just opened (see the complete list at the link). Boris really seems to have been trying to keep his head down and his buffoonery to a minimum but I guess he can't escape his own incompetence.

At least 13 British lawmakers have left Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government in less than 24 hours, including finance minister Rishi Sunak, saying the British leader no longer has their confidence and plunging his government into crisis.

The departures started late Tuesday afternoon with Health Secretary Sajid Javid quitting just after 6 o'clock (1700 GMT). Sunak's resignation letter followed just nine minutes later.

[andydp]

I suppose the question in the world's mind is "who is standing in the wings to take the PM job ?"

[pnwguy]

Jul 6, 2022 13:13:58 GMT andydp said:

I suppose the question in the world's mind is "who is standing in the wings to take the PM job ?"

Roy Kent?  

Ted Lasso is ineligible as a foreigner from a colony in rebellion.

[goldenvalley]

Jul 6, 2022 13:13:58 GMT andydp said:

I suppose the question in the world's mind is "who is standing in the wings to take the PM job ?"

What person in their right mind would want to take on that job given the economy, the mess left by Brexit, and the mindset of those who voted for Brexit?

[LFC]

Jul 6, 2022 13:01:16 GMT LFC said:

The floodgates just opened (see the complete list at the link). Boris really seems to have been trying to keep his head down and his buffoonery to a minimum but I guess he can't escape his own incompetence.

At least 13 British lawmakers have left Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government in less than 24 hours, including finance minister Rishi Sunak, saying the British leader no longer has their confidence and plunging his government into crisis.

The departures started late Tuesday afternoon with Health Secretary Sajid Javid quitting just after 6 o'clock (1700 GMT). Sunak's resignation letter followed just nine minutes later.

It's about 6 hours after I posted that and the count has now gone from 13 to 32 (see same link above). It looks like Boris's days may finally be numbered.

[AnBr]

Jul 6, 2022 13:13:58 GMT andydp said:

I suppose the question in the world's mind is "who is standing in the wings to take the PM job ?"

Where is Mr. Bikkies?

[LFC]

The link above isn't updated but I saw elsewhere that it's now over 40 resignations. He seems to have lost the support of much of his party.

EDIT: A July 5 YouGuv poll showed 69% of the people think he should resign. Only 18% said he should remain with the rest undecided. That's pretty awful.

[andydp]

The denouement has happened.  Britain is in a state of "miffed"

Boris Johnson Says ‘Them’s the Breaks’ in Absurdly Chill Resignation Speech

After being forced to stand down by his own party in the wake of his latest scandal, Boris Johnson delivered a trademark unapologetic and pedestrian resignation speech from Downing Street on Thursday. “I’m sad to give up the best job in the world,” Johnson said, “But them’s the breaks.” He also described his colleagues’ decision to oust him as “eccentric” and pointed to a “herd instinct” operating in Westminster for his downfall.

www.thedailybeast.com/boris-johnson-says-thems-the-breaks-in-absurdly-chill-resignation-speech?fbclid=IwAR2VO8kCrdYMoZ9CowJ8bP-UWMnyJMn0lVs-wAuI00h1rzWaBLOj1NutZyA
 

[LFC]

Boris is out!

Scandal-ridden Boris Johnson announced on Thursday he would quit as British prime minister after he dramatically lost the support of his ministers and most Conservative lawmakers, but said he would stay on until his successor was chosen.

Bowing to the inevitable as more than 50 ministers quit and lawmakers said he must go, an isolated and powerless Johnson said it was clear his party wanted someone else in charge.

"Today I have appointed a cabinet to serve, as I will, until a new leader is in place," Johnson said outside his Downing Street office where his speech was watched by close allies and his wife Carrie.

"I know that there will be many people who are relieved and perhaps quite a few who will also be disappointed. And I want you to know how sad I am to be giving up the best job in the world. But them's the breaks."

Johnson gave no apology for the events leading to his announcement and said his forced departure was "eccentric".

[goldenvalley]

Jul 7, 2022 13:12:58 GMT LFC said:

Boris is out!

Scandal-ridden Boris Johnson announced on Thursday he would quit as British prime minister after he dramatically lost the support of his ministers and most Conservative lawmakers, but said he would stay on until his successor was chosen.

Bowing to the inevitable as more than 50 ministers quit and lawmakers said he must go, an isolated and powerless Johnson said it was clear his party wanted someone else in charge.

"Today I have appointed a cabinet to serve, as I will, until a new leader is in place," Johnson said outside his Downing Street office where his speech was watched by close allies and his wife Carrie.

"I know that there will be many people who are relieved and perhaps quite a few who will also be disappointed. And I want you to know how sad I am to be giving up the best job in the world. But them's the breaks."

Johnson gave no apology for the events leading to his announcement and said his forced departure was "eccentric".

So he resigns but he's appointed replacement cabinet members and isn't really leaving until some other person is appointed by the Party?  Doesn't seem like much of a resignation to me.  Will he continue to hang around giving advice to his successor?

[goldenvalley]

[andydp]

Jul 7, 2022 16:46:13 GMT goldenvalley said:

Well played sir !! (Pure genius !!)

[indy]

At least the UK still has the national resolve to oust a serial liar with such poor management skills that they would be unbelievable in a sitcom character on TV. We elect them to be President.

[pnwguy]

Jul 8, 2022 15:16:48 GMT indy said:

At least the UK still has the national resolve to oust a serial liar with such poor management skills that they would be unbelievable in a sitcom character on TV. We stage a coup so they can elect them to be Emperor President.

FIFY - 2024 edition

[LFC]

The Conservative Party said it will announce Johnson's replacement on Sep. 5. Bye-bye, Boris.

[LFC]

Heathrow can't keep up with demand and is setting a daily passenger cap.

After two years of pandemic turndown, travel is making a big comeback (especially European travel). But airports and airlines aren’t quite ready for it. In the most recent example of flight frenzy overload, Heathrow International Airport in the U.K. has opted to cap departing passenger slots at 100,000 per day through the rest of the summer. The announcement came in an open letter from the airport’s CEO, John Holland-Kaye.

“Our assessment is that the maximum number of daily departing passengers that airlines, airline ground handlers and the airport can collectively serve over the summer is no more than 100,000,” he wrote. “We are asking our airline partners to stop selling summer tickets to limit the impact on passengers.”

The airport is routinely ranked as one of the busiest in the world. Factors like staff and security shortages and shuttered terminals led Heathrow to begin requesting that airlines cancel flights on short notice earlier this month. However, the new letter makes it clear that airlines weren’t voluntarily doing enough to respond to that request. “Some airlines have taken significant action, but others have not, and we believe that further action is needed now to ensure passengers have a safe and reliable journey. We have therefore made the difficult decision to introduce a capacity cap with effect from 12 July to 11 September,” wrote Holland-Kaye.

[goldenvalley]

Jul 12, 2022 19:13:39 GMT LFC said:

Heathrow can't keep up with demand and is setting a daily passenger cap.

After two years of pandemic turndown, travel is making a big comeback (especially European travel). But airports and airlines aren’t quite ready for it. In the most recent example of flight frenzy overload, Heathrow International Airport in the U.K. has opted to cap departing passenger slots at 100,000 per day through the rest of the summer. The announcement came in an open letter from the airport’s CEO, John Holland-Kaye.

“Our assessment is that the maximum number of daily departing passengers that airlines, airline ground handlers and the airport can collectively serve over the summer is no more than 100,000,” he wrote. “We are asking our airline partners to stop selling summer tickets to limit the impact on passengers.”

The airport is routinely ranked as one of the busiest in the world. Factors like staff and security shortages and shuttered terminals led Heathrow to begin requesting that airlines cancel flights on short notice earlier this month. However, the new letter makes it clear that airlines weren’t voluntarily doing enough to respond to that request. “Some airlines have taken significant action, but others have not, and we believe that further action is needed now to ensure passengers have a safe and reliable journey. We have therefore made the difficult decision to introduce a capacity cap with effect from 12 July to 11 September,” wrote Holland-Kaye.

I'll be flying in that general direction soon. I was congratulating myself for picking airlines that didn't go through Heathrow, but then I saw that Amsterdam's airport is close to Heathrow busy too. That's where I'm headed. Not checking bags so I hope to be ok.

[goldenvalley]

In the category of "Who Would Want this Job?" the answer is the next Prime Minister Liz Truss.  

The next prime minister of Britain will be Liz Truss, whose political journey began on the left — down with the monarchy! she cried — only to arrive on the right, as a hard-line Brexiteer who has tried to channel the Iron Lady herself, Margaret Thatcher.

Truss has held six ministerial posts under three prime ministers, including 11 months as foreign minister. Yet after her years of public service and a summer making her pitch to Conservative Party activists, many Britons confess they don’t really know Truss. Not the way they knew Boris Johnson — former London mayor, newspaper columnist, colorful orator, serial prevaricator — when he took office just a few years ago.

It’s fair to say Truss is a shapeshifter. She fought for Britain to remain in the European Union before becoming a staunch defender of Brexit. Her supporters say she accepted the outcome of the 2016 referendum and got with the program. Others say she’s a weather vane, pivoting when it suits her advancement.

[LFC]

Truss is parachuting into a total shitstorm. Opinion piece from NYT in full but you have to click in to get the video.

So Liz Truss will be Britain’s next prime minister — the nation’s fourth in seven years. And she’s inheriting a nation falling apart at the seams.

Ms. Truss’s victory on Monday followed a long summer of overlapping and escalating crises in the country: Inflation soared to double-digit figures and continues to rise; nationwide strikes have crippled the train networks, the postal service and trash collections; a heat wave brought the first drought in 20 years; and Brexit and the pandemic conspired to ruin many families’ first overseas vacations in three years.

On top of all of that, the government has been unable to prevent Britain’s energy companies from raising electricity and natural gas prices to levels that for many residents are simply unaffordable. The average household energy bill will nearly double between now and October, to 3,549 pounds a year (about $4,200).

Ms. Truss’s predecessor Boris Johnson refused to do much to respond to the energy crisis, insisting it was the job of the new government. Ms. Truss, for her part, ruled out cash payments to struggling families.

Caught in a swirl of crises and feeling abandoned by their government, Britons are angry.

To capture this, we turned once again to the fictional broadcast journalist Jonathan Pie, performed by Tom Walker. In the satirical Opinion video above, he takes viewers on a tour of a broken Britain and argues that Ms. Truss is not well equipped to fix it.

The video contains some strong language and adult humor you don’t normally see in The Times, but we think Mr. Pie is the perfect conduit for the frustration and desperation of millions of Britons.

[AnBr]

The video would be pretty funny it id didn't sound so familiar. The oligarchs' reich-wing extremism needs to die the world around.

[LFC]

[LFC]

The lofty promises of the Brexiteers are evaporating as the U.K. economy faces a lot of economic turmoil, much of it inflicted by fear of the new Prime Minister's economic plans.

Phillips P. OBrien
@phillipspobrien

Obviously the Brexiteers had a cunning plan to make true Britons so relatively poor that they would never be able to afford to leave for other countries...

Probability of Pound Sliding to Parity This Year Jumps to 60%

From the Bloomberg link. Gee, waddya' know, the right-wingers are calling for ... TAX CUTS! It's awesome how the right-wing Tinkle Down Economics crowd in the U.S. exported their nonsense to other corporate purchased politicians.

It is looking more and more likely sterling will fall to parity against the dollar this year based on option market pricing.

Sterling-dollar implied volatility suggests there is a 60% probability spot will hit 1.00 before the end of this year -- based on spot trading at 1.0552 -- compared to 32% on Friday. The currency pair plunged to a record low of 1.0350 Monday in Asian trading after Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer signaled more tax cuts might be in the pipeline.

Markets are also expecting extreme turbulence, with sterling-dollar’s three month implied volatility surging 4.31 percentage points to 20.05% Monday. That’s fast approaching the high of 20.62% reached during the 2020 pandemic meltdown.



The moves comes after the British government announced Friday the most radical package of tax cuts since 1972, which raised concerns from investors and economists the fiscal stimulus will drive the country’s debt to unaffordable levels and further fan inflation.

And this:

Edward Luce
@edwardgluce

Dollar value of British economy has dropped 13 per cent since Truss became prime minister…three weeks ago.

And this:

David Ingles
@davidinglestv
 
Goodness. Gilts are getting slammed against a wall. Yields up 20BPS across THE ENTIRE CURVE

[LFC]

F***.

I'm told:
- Pension funds getting hammered and losing huge amounts of capital
- Banks forcing them to make margin calls and liquidate assets - so gilts
- Some pension funds losing large amounts of their fund
- Hence BoE stepped in

- They are worried about systemic risk and without move today some pension funds could have gone under (they still might)
- There’s a global bond tour going on "so probably the worst time in recent history to make unfunded pledges" says a source
* global bond ^rout^

[LFC]

Cheezes, she's only been PM for a few weeks. Did she really f*** up this monumentally this fast?

Her opponent literally predicted what would happen so the answer sounds like a resounding "YES!"

Does this sound familiar? Economically she's a Republican which means she's dumb as a brick (apologies to bricks everywhere actually providing value if not thought).

As Ms Truss pledged tax minimize after tax minimize to win over Tory members, Mr Sunak recommended they may do actual financial injury.

During a management debate on 15 July Mr Sunak accused his rival of “fairytale economics” by promising unfunded tax cuts.

“Liz, we’ve to be trustworthy. Borrowing your method out of inflation isn’t a plan, it’s a fairytale,” he said.

But Ms Truss was unconvinced, and responded with a conservative slogan: “You cannot tax your way to growth.”

Economics by slogan. Yep, sounds sooooo familiar.

[LFC]

More on the Bank of England stepping in to rescue potentially collapsing pension funds.

The collapse of the pound and UK government bonds in the wake of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s historic tax-cutting plan has exposed vulnerabilities in a usually sleepy corner of finance.

Fund managers running billions for pension funds faced collateral calls on strategies meant to give them exposure to long-dated assets to help match obligations that can extend decades. The so-called liability-driven investment, or LDI, funds were forced to post more collateral after receiving margin calls when gilt prices collapsed.

The central bank stepped in Wednesday after the calls threatened to push the gilt market into a downward spiral. The BOE had been warned by investment banks and fund managers in recent days that the collateral requirements could trigger a gilt crash, according to a person familiar with the BOE’s deliberations before they stepped in.

“The BOE intervention was required to prevent a vicious cycle becoming even more dangerous for pension funds forced to sell their gilt exposures,” Calum Mackenzie, an investment partner at Aon, said after the BOE intervention. “The market’s swift and significant reaction underlined the big risk faced by pension funds who have had or who could have had their liability hedges reduced.”