AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Jul 22, 2024 13:03:02 GMT
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Post by Rue Bella on Jul 22, 2024 14:39:44 GMT
When I was writing that, I had difficulty narrowing it down to only two, so I just went with the first ones I'd written. There are just so many. I was just thinking of the possible ads Biden himself (and others) can now do, assuming he's going to be involved with the campaigning. Pandora's box is hopefully open now. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Jul 22, 2024 14:53:25 GMT
I think the “tune-out” has been more of a “thing” than I had thought. After all, there’s only so much of beating one’s head against the same brick wall one can take. I would look at some stuff, esp the Trump felony trial. But there is so much that is disheartening that it's a real turn-off to regularly follow. SCOTUS, Cannon, Biden health, Trump himself, climate... turn the channel, back to the bubble. I don't know how widespread "tune-out" is, but I think/hope that's going to change. I suspect that is why many polls just can't be trusted now, besides it just being early in the process. |
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Post by indy on Jul 22, 2024 19:48:17 GMT
I guess my first reaction was concern. I mean, for me personally, it wasn't really that relevant. I would have voted for Biden's 3-month-old corpse over Trump any day. My concern has been with the reaction of Democrats and whether they would splinter into a disorganized mess. Fortunately, it all seems pretty organized and united and clearly Harris will wrap up the delegates she needs by the end of the week. All those GOP months of hammering Biden as too old now kinda look like they might come home to rest. So my second reaction has been relief. So far.
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Post by indy on Jul 22, 2024 20:39:32 GMT
"Vice President Harris raised $81 million in the first 24 hours after President Biden stepped aside and endorsed her as the Democratic nominee, her campaign said, touting it as the highest 24-hour fundraising haul of any presidential candidate in history...The campaign said it brought in more than 888,000 contributions from individual grassroots donors, 60 percent of whom had not donated before in the 2024 cycle."
Seems encouraging.
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Post by goldenvalley on Jul 22, 2024 20:41:48 GMT
Rue! Good to see you!
Yeah relief is what I feel too. At least now the focus of the campaign can shift to Trump who is now the old guy. The one who lied and made up stuff in the debate and everywhere else too. He won't be debating Harris.
The calls to remove Biden are just reflexive. Whatever Trump is accused of, well Biden did it too. Tired of that.
Get ready for some really nasty stuff coming at Harris. Black female, slept her way into politics, liar during her time as AG in California, lazy, not too bright, horrible laugh. Is she really a citizen?? All stuff that Trump likes to sling around because he's got nothing else to say. And House Republicans howling about how she let in undocumented people, registered them to vote, and will now allow them to vote.
ETA: I forgot to add in uppity and "thinks she's so smart". The latter is the classic middle school insult to a smart girl.
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Post by goldenvalley on Jul 22, 2024 20:46:48 GMT
I guess my first reaction was concern. I mean, for me personally, it wasn't really that relevant. I would have voted for Biden's 3-month-old corpse over Trump any day. My concern has been with the reaction of Democrats and whether they would splinter into a disorganized mess. Fortunately, it all seems pretty organized and united and clearly Harris will wrap up the delegates she needs by the end of the week. All those GOP months of hammering Biden as too old now kinda look like they might come home to rest. So my second reaction has been relief. So far. As I read blogs I see progressive types who say now is the time to end tired old politics and try new things, but Harris won't do that so she's a bad choice. I think though that the everyday voter just wants something and someone normal, not exciting, and resembling what they are used to. That's what they wanted with Biden. People don't like drastic change. And when they say they want change they mostly mean they are tired of whoever the incumbent is or the party in power is. |
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Post by Traveler on Jul 23, 2024 15:23:07 GMT
Well, count me interested again finally! Had totally given up hope. I was looking for land in the Azores (naw, just going on vacation in 4 weeks, but will definitely look around.) This totally changes everything. Harris polls much better than Joe in the independents that count. Her haul exceeded $100m so far. Silicon valley is also coming back, along with the big Dem donors that quit while Joe dithered.
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Post by Bact PhD on Jul 23, 2024 16:54:03 GMT
Well, count me interested again finally! Had totally given up hope. I was looking for land in the Azores (naw, just going on vacation in 4 weeks, but will definitely look around.) This totally changes everything. Harris polls much better than Joe in the independents that count. Her haul exceeded $100m so far. Silicon valley is also coming back, along with the big Dem donors that quit while Joe dithered. Good to see you, Trav! Have a great time in the Azores. |
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Post by goldenvalley on Jul 23, 2024 17:29:37 GMT
Well, count me interested again finally! Had totally given up hope. I was looking for land in the Azores (naw, just going on vacation in 4 weeks, but will definitely look around.) This totally changes everything. Harris polls much better than Joe in the independents that count. Her haul exceeded $100m so far. Silicon valley is also coming back, along with the big Dem donors that quit while Joe dithered. I feel you traveler. I am scheduled to be in France on Election Day and have been joking that I may not come back depending on the results. Have a great trip. |
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Post by indy on Jul 24, 2024 11:47:32 GMT
Well, count me interested again finally! Had totally given up hope. I was looking for land in the Azores (naw, just going on vacation in 4 weeks, but will definitely look around.) This totally changes everything. Harris polls much better than Joe in the independents that count. Her haul exceeded $100m so far. Silicon valley is also coming back, along with the big Dem donors that quit while Joe dithered. Hey, Traveler, good to see you!
She also had the delegates she needed for the nomination wrapped up yesterday which is pretty impressive. I know Biden announced on Sunday but the organizational speed and alacrity which this happened actually makes me think it has been on the works for more than a few days. Then, of course, I think, no way this was preplanned without it leaking. So, which ever way it happened, I'm still impressed but for different reasons.
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Post by goldenvalley on Jul 24, 2024 17:04:15 GMT
Well, count me interested again finally! Had totally given up hope. I was looking for land in the Azores (naw, just going on vacation in 4 weeks, but will definitely look around.) This totally changes everything. Harris polls much better than Joe in the independents that count. Her haul exceeded $100m so far. Silicon valley is also coming back, along with the big Dem donors that quit while Joe dithered. Hey, Traveler, good to see you!
She also had the delegates she needed for the nomination wrapped up yesterday which is pretty impressive. I know Biden announced on Sunday but the organizational speed and alacrity which this happened actually makes me think it has been on the works for more than a few days. Then, of course, I think, no way this was preplanned without it leaking. So, which ever way it happened, I'm still impressed but for different reasons.
If Nancy Pelosi had a hand in it, and by all reports she did, all that stuff was gamed out and covered. The only leaks happening were those planted by her and her people I suspect. The sudden announcement after expressions of defiance on Saturday made me think they were letting the Trump campaign believe that all their plans would come to fruition. Trump could play golf as much as he wanted while Vance whipped up the base on the campaign trail. |
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Post by indy on Jul 24, 2024 17:20:48 GMT
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Post by Traveler on Jul 25, 2024 11:35:49 GMT
So everyone, what is your take on polls? Seems to me that relying on landlines makes for a pretty skewed distribution, no?
Given that haul, I sense a very different voting landscape that doesn't corroborate that much with what the polls indicate.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,012
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Post by andydp on Jul 25, 2024 15:57:30 GMT
If Nancy Pelosi had a hand in it, and by all reports she did, all that stuff was gamed out and covered. The only leaks happening were those planted by her and her people I suspect. The sudden announcement after expressions of defiance on Saturday made me think they were letting the Trump campaign believe that all their plans would come to fruition. Trump could play golf as much as he wanted while Vance whipped up the base on the campaign trail. Every time I think of this statement, I'm reminded of Professor Moriarity (Sherlock Holmes' nemesis): the unseen hand managing the action in the background. Pelosi has shown the world she can: run circles around the MAGA crowd, make them look like the "one trick ponies" they are, and still enjoy a cold Martini at the end of the skirmish. Reviewing the chain of events, we see the GOP going full bore on "Sleepy Joe", Biden criminal family, etc. during the coronation convention. Pres Biden leaves and now all they have are ad hominem attacks on VP Harris. Democrats have Project 2025, "childless cat ladies", threats to Social Security and Medicare, and JD Vance the hillbilly from Yale. Well played !! |
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AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
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Post by AnBr on Jul 25, 2024 16:31:17 GMT
So everyone, what is your take on polls? Seems to me that relying on landlines makes for a pretty skewed distribution, no? Given that haul, I sense a very different voting landscape that doesn't corroborate that much with what the polls indicate. Put it this way, how many people these days answer their phone if they do not recognize the number? |
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Post by Rue Bella on Jul 25, 2024 22:29:39 GMT
So everyone, what is your take on polls? Seems to me that relying on landlines makes for a pretty skewed distribution, no? Given that haul, I sense a very different voting landscape that doesn't corroborate that much with what the polls indicate. Hi Traveler...Nice to see you again. As for the polls, there are obvious problems with them. What is more important than the numbers however, is the trend - and that is very good. I say that as one of the newly all-powerful Childless Cat Ladies. 100+ days to go. Lots can happen. When Hillary lost to Trump, part of the problem was that as someone put it "She never went away." I called it being 'shop-worn'. People were simply tired of her. The same thing can be said of Trump now - just go away already! Being boring in American politics may be worse than being hated. And in his case, it's both. |
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Post by indy on Jul 26, 2024 1:17:23 GMT
So everyone, what is your take on polls? Seems to me that relying on landlines makes for a pretty skewed distribution, no? Given that haul, I sense a very different voting landscape that doesn't corroborate that much with what the polls indicate. Well, my general rule of thumb is polls are fairly useless until at least September. There are fewer polls being conducted so it is easier to game them when crappy partisan firms field polls that can have a big influence on the aggregate because there are so many fewer of them. McCain and Obama were basically tied at this point in the election cycle too. If memory serves, McCain was actually ahead of Obama through most of September.
There are also obviously pretty drastic changes afoot in the political landscape that aren't really incorporated into polling even if I did think they were worth looking at right now.
In general, though, I still think polling is pretty accurate near the election date and, in fact, 2022 was the most accurate (from an average polling error point of view) in 25 years. UK results were pretty close to the polling predictions too. I think the Financial Times model (or maybe it was the Economist?) pretty well aligned with the results.
But I don't bother looking at them or reading any of the non-stop hyperventilating posts from the various corners of the internet at this point in the cycle. It's just chum in the water.
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Post by goldenvalley on Jul 26, 2024 3:28:51 GMT
So everyone, what is your take on polls? Seems to me that relying on landlines makes for a pretty skewed distribution, no? Given that haul, I sense a very different voting landscape that doesn't corroborate that much with what the polls indicate. Well, my general rule of thumb is polls are fairly useless until at least September. There are fewer polls being conducted so it is easier to game them when crappy partisan firms field polls that can have a big influence on the aggregate because there are so many fewer of them. McCain and Obama were basically tied at this point in the election cycle too. If memory serves, McCain was actually ahead of Obama through most of September.
There are also obviously pretty drastic changes afoot in the political landscape that aren't really incorporated into polling even if I did think they were worth looking at right now.
In general, though, I still think polling is pretty accurate near the election date and, in fact, 2022 was the most accurate (from an average polling error point of view) in 25 years. UK results were pretty close to the polling predictions too. I think the Financial Times model (or maybe it was the Economist?) pretty well aligned with the results.
But I don't bother looking at them or reading any of the non-stop hyperventilating posts from the various corners of the internet at this point in the cycle. It's just chum in the water.
Agree. Until the people being polled are faced with the reality of the election looming over them I don't think there is much incentive to think deeply about who they will vote for. |
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Post by indy on Jul 26, 2024 11:48:44 GMT
It's amazing how historically unique this election is. This is first time a former president has been nominated by a major political party since the 1800s. It is also the first time an elected president who was seeking renomination has dropped out since the 1800s (there are others who did not seek renomination or who were rejected by the party in their renomination bids). First time ever a convicted felon has won a major party nomination. And here we are getting it all in the same election. Crazy AF. I don't think it's unjustified to throw around adjectives like 'unprecedented' or 'unique' at all. Bottom line, I think polling right now is even more worthless than is typical. And however accurate or inaccurate the polling ends up being, I'm not going to be surprised. We are living through a shit storm of an election and relying on historical benchmarks and metrics or divining the tea leaves when the teacup is smashed into a gazillion pieces might just be a lazy, unproductive approach. I repeat myself but this is crazy AF. All that said, it feels, at the moment, that there really is a gigantic political shift going on but I don't know which way the ground is shifting. I mean, if I look at Democrats, I see a healthy political party with a fairly large stable of young and competent politicians, any number of which could end up being president. When I look at Republicans...well, I immediately look away. If the ground shifts toward Trump where does it go after he (hopefully) dies cuz I don't see anything behind him except morons, bigots, and even bigger grifters (if that's possible)...
It's (here's that word again) crazy this is a contest at all but here we are. |
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Post by indy on Jul 26, 2024 12:17:47 GMT
Agree. Until the people being polled are faced with the reality of the election looming over them I don't think there is much incentive to think deeply about who they will vote for. It's criminal malfeasance or plain stupidity for those who were advocating for Biden to drop out on the basis of current polling. Again, we can point to Obama being behind McCain in September and still winning by a landslide.
At the same time, I can't say I'm disappointed he DID drop out. I was never really much of a fan and his age was indeed a concern. I think that feeling was shared by a lot of people regardless of their political persuasion. I also think the fact that he won against Trump given the obvious rather lukewarm enthusiasm for him even by those in his own party is actually a promising sign for this election, my argument about this election being unique and historically unprecedented not withstanding.
I do like your optimism about people thinking deeply who they will vote for though.
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Post by Rue Bella on Jul 26, 2024 14:38:37 GMT
I doubt that is specifically what happened. The polls were probably used as a tool for 'proof of facts' to help Biden make his decision, instead of out-right telling him he just appears too old to run again. I say this as probably one of the oldest people here.
To be blunt, before he stepped down, whenever I saw Biden I cringed. His face is far more saggy than just 4 years ago. When he walked (shuffled), he was very unsteady and looked as if he could fall any second. And when he talked, he no longer enunciated well. (sure, speech impediment) He just looked and sounded far too old to put in another 4 years at a difficult job. And sad to say, most people (the electorate) judge people on their appearance. My 90+ yr old father did not seem as old as Biden.
Polls obviously are not proof of anything. They are imperfect indicators. But what else is there to give an indication of what is going on? Listening to politicians, blogs, Fox, MSN, Twitter, Truth Social, fiends/relatives, the man on the street?
PS... for many reasons, watch the women this year. I'd also say 'the youth' too, but they generally don't come through.
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Post by indy on Jul 26, 2024 15:07:42 GMT
Even though I don't believe polls now accurately predict what will happen in November, I do think they are useful for detecting the mood of the electorate or, much more importantly, shifts in that mood. I will actually be watching---in a general sense---what happens in the next week or two.
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Post by Traveler on Jul 26, 2024 17:07:21 GMT
Folks,
It is great to be back logging on and seeing pretty much the entire hard-core TRS crew. How long have we been going on? Obama's first term? I can't even remember. Chuck should be proud of what he started.
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Post by indy on Jul 26, 2024 19:12:49 GMT
I'm somewhat obsessed with who Harris will pick as her VP running mate. Any thoughts?
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