2024 Presidential Election

[goldenvalley]

Jul 26, 2024 12:17:47 GMT indy said:

Jul 26, 2024 3:28:51 GMT goldenvalley said:

Agree. Until the people being polled are faced with the reality of the election looming over them I don't think there is much incentive to think deeply about who they will vote for. 

It's criminal malfeasance or plain stupidity for those who were advocating for Biden to drop out on the basis of current polling. Again, we can point to Obama being behind McCain in September and still winning by a landslide.

I saw hints in some of the coverage that there were some specific polls in the swing states that are more recent and perhaps more pointed about Biden's chances. Campaign internal polling is better than the more generic ones we read about in media.  I suspect that was what turned the corner for him.

[goldenvalley]

Jul 26, 2024 14:38:37 GMT Rue Bella said:

It's criminal malfeasance or plain stupidity for those who were advocating for Biden to drop out on the basis of current polling.

I doubt that is specifically what happened.  The polls were probably used as a tool for 'proof of facts' to help Biden make his decision, instead of out-right telling him he just appears too old to run again. I say this as probably one of the oldest people here. 

To be blunt, before he stepped down, whenever I saw Biden I cringed. His face is far more saggy than just 4 years ago. When he walked (shuffled), he was very unsteady and looked as if he could fall any second. And when he talked, he no longer enunciated well. (sure, speech impediment) He just looked and sounded far too old to put in another 4 years at a difficult job. And sad to say, most people (the electorate) judge people on their appearance. My 90+ yr old father did not seem as old as Biden.

I feel that he looks worse now than he did at the State of the Union Address in January. It seems a whole confluence of negative things went on just before the debate plus he seemed really nervous which hinders quick thinking.  

If the whole election was going to come down to perceived "strength" which is what Trump seemed to be pushing for, Biden was going to lose.  Somehow people missed the fact that Trump doesn't walk so well either.  They mistake loudness, fast talking, and gesticulating arms as a sign of strength. Go figure.  

[goldenvalley]

Jul 26, 2024 19:12:49 GMT indy said:

I'm somewhat obsessed with who Harris will pick as her VP running mate. Any thoughts?

I don't know who.  But I do think that picking a Senator or current governor is a bad idea because there is a strong need to keep, if not expand, the narrow margin that is already there. Plus there is a lot of action in the states that is detrimental to voting rights, reproductive rights, etc that need to be vetoed by governors that are Democrats.  

[AnBr]

Jul 26, 2024 11:48:44 GMT indy said:

Bottom line, I think polling right now is even more worthless than is typical. And however accurate or inaccurate the polling ends up being, I'm not going to be surprised. We are living through a shit storm of an election and relying on historical benchmarks and metrics or divining the tea leaves when the teacup is smashed into a gazillion pieces might just be a lazy, unproductive approach.

Not to mention that the last few elections they said the Dems "overperformed". Well against polling, perhaps, but I think it is more indicative of how off or even biased that the polls have been compared to the results.

[Bact PhD]

Jul 26, 2024 19:12:49 GMT indy said:

I'm somewhat obsessed with who Harris will pick as her VP running mate. Any thoughts?

Either Sen Kelly from AZ or Gov. Cooper from NC are my semi-educated guesses. Of those 2, I lean towards Cooper — East Coast/West Coast balance, Dem Governor who faces term limits this year, in a pink-to-red state otherwise. I don’t see this being the year for a two-woman ticket—sorry, Gov. Whitmer.

[Bact PhD]

Rue Bella:

PS... for many reasons, watch the women this year. I'd also say 'the youth' too, but they generally don't come through.

Indy:

Even though I don't believe polls now accurately predict what will happen in November, I do think they are useful for detecting the mood of the electorate or, much more importantly, shifts in that mood. I will actually be watching---in a general sense---what happens in the next week or two.

Indy, I concur with your assessment of the polls at this stage— more of a gauge of generalities than any sort of precise measurement. I get fed up with the hyperventilating about one or another candidate being “ahead by 3 percentage points” when it doesn’t take that much to realize that’s within the margin of error, really a statistical tie. From what I see, the electorate is still digesting the events of the last couple weeks.

Rue, the youth (which I define as 18-30) are very much in flux and probably aren’t responding to pollsters. For them, regardless of how well off their parents may be, “the economy” sucks. Their life-startup costs require more of their earnings than ours did; so do their necessities. If the three “youth” with whom I have regular conversations are any indication, they were disgusted with the major party choices and contemplated either sitting out entirely or voting for RFK Jr. Biden dropping out and Harris gearing up has upset that calculation.

[indy]

My older son was pretty upset Biden was forced out (that's how he sees it anyway) but he currently lives in Asia so even though he has always been very politically aware and in tune (which is really a pretty drastic understatement) I'm just not sure he has a sense of how--what's the word, dormant?--the Democratic base seemed to be. Maybe 'resigned' is a better word? Not sure.

My younger son sees Harris as Biden 2.0 policy wise, so isn't really excited about the change.

In terms of vice presidential picks, I basically agree with the arguments made by the two political scientists in this article: www.npr.org/2024/07/25/nx-s1-5049718/vice-presidential-picks-how-much-do-they-matter. The argument is that statistical analysis supports the notion that VP picks have very little influence on bringing additional votes to the top of the ticket (i.e., a battleground state VP pick won't do anything to deliver that state), at least in modern era elections. Rather, the VP pick does matter somewhat in helping shape the perception of the presidential candidate. I think, for example, you can point to Hillary Clinton's choice in that regard. I think Kaine did a very poor job of making her case and, more broadly, the case for Democrats. Even Democrats seemed to think he was milquetoast. Which, frankly, in a campaign that was peppered with mistakes might just have been the biggest one.

Given these considerations, I think the best choice, hands down, would be Tim Walz. The contrast with Vance would be pretty stark. Unlike Vance, he really is a rural guy. Real world experience in elected executive office, etc. He makes a really good case for Democratic policies and his rhetoric is superb and with the right tone in attacking Republicans and Republican policies.

Now, I don't believe that this will happen, just what I think should happen.

Also, to be clear, I don't know what skeletons are in his closet, so obviously this is just from the perspective that whatever turns up isn't disqualifying.

If the Harris campaign believes swing state votes are obtainable through the VP choice, then Kelly or Cooper might be their choice I guess. I'm just not sure enough about Shapiro but maybe?

[indy]

Beginning of July:

DEM enthusiasm for nominee 37%
GOP enthusiasm for nominee 70%

End of July:

DEM enthusiasm for nominee 81%
GOP enthusiasm for nominee 85%

Two WSJ polls less than a month apart.

[goldenvalley]

A fascinating read on the content of prayers that open Trump rallies is in The Atlantic by McKay Coppins.  I never paid much attention because the media rarely mentions them, but this article made me nervous.

Bradley Onishi, a scholar and former evangelical minister who studies the intersection of politics and Christianity in America, told me that prayers at political events have traditionally fit a certain mold. God is asked to grant the political leader inspiration and wisdom, to help him resist temptation and lead the country in a righteous direction. “It was always ‘We pray for him to have the strength to do God’s will, to have character, to be the man we need,’ ” Onishi said.

Some of the prayers at Trump’s rallies run along these lines, and would be familiar to anyone who has spent time in an American church, myself included. “Give President Trump the strength to make the right decisions both in and out of the public eye,” one man prayed at a Trump event in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. “Remind him to seek your guidance as events unfold.” I have said “Amen” to a thousand prayers like this in my life, on behalf of government leaders in both parties.

But Onishi, like several of the other experts I asked to read the prayers, was struck by how many of them take Trump’s righteousness for granted. “No one prays for Trump to do right; they pray that God will do right by Trump,” Onishi told me.

Indeed, rather than asking God to make Trump an instrument of his will, most of the prayers start from the assumption that he already is. Accordingly, many of them drop any pretense of thy-will-be-done nonpartisanship, and ask explicitly for Trump’s reelection. “Lord, you have a servant in Donald J. Trump, who can lead our nation,” a woman offering a prayer in Laconia, New Hampshire, told God at a rally on the eve of the state’s Republican primary. “Help us to overcome any obstacles tomorrow so that we may deliver victory to your warrior.”

[Rue Bella]

Looks like the Trump campaign is going full birther again. Perhaps a wake-up call to their base to get them enthused. 'Old Biden' is gone, and going anti childless cat lady didn't seem to be working. What else do they have?

[indy]

Kind of an interesting trend I've seen in the recent polling: Kennedy's support appears to be dropping like a rock and that support looks like it might (mostly) be going to Harris. Prior to Biden's dropout he seemed to be polling 7-10% and now it is 3-5%.

[indy]

Aug 1, 2024 13:26:33 GMT Rue Bella said:

Looks like the Trump campaign is going full birther again. Perhaps a wake-up call to their base to get them enthused. 'Old Biden' is gone, and going anti childless cat lady didn't seem to be working. What else do they have?

Well, they have that Harris's husband isn't 'really' Jewish. Not sure how that plays with the anti-Jewish conspiratorial global banking or nazi sympathizer part of the base. Won't they just be confused about how to feel about him?

[goldenvalley]

Aug 1, 2024 15:05:34 GMT indy said:

Aug 1, 2024 13:26:33 GMT Rue Bella said:

Looks like the Trump campaign is going full birther again. Perhaps a wake-up call to their base to get them enthused. 'Old Biden' is gone, and going anti childless cat lady didn't seem to be working. What else do they have?

Well, they have that Harris's husband isn't 'really' Jewish. Not sure how that plays with the anti-Jewish conspiratorial global banking or nazi sympathizer part of the base. Won't they just be confused about how to feel about him?

Consistency and logic in viewpoints is not a hallmark of the former president or the members of the group of people that support him.  The only consistent thing is the attempt to ping someone's anger spot. He's conflicted about Jews anyway. His daughter converted and is married to a Jew. But he was a good Jew in Trump's eyes. He's wealthy, helps Trump, and backs Israel right or wrong. Members of his supporter group may not have a definition of a good Jew but they're happy to mad about something.
 
Harris is Indian; no she's Black. The intent is to make both groups mad at her and to get the racists riled up to say you can't trust her.  I started to think this is what he was doing at the famous interview with Black journalists yesterday but then I saw someone opine that really he was thinking of Nikki Haley when he said that. Maybe that's it. 

[Rue Bella]

Aug 1, 2024 16:19:12 GMT goldenvalley said:

...   I started to think this is what he was doing at the famous interview with Black journalists yesterday but then I saw someone opine that really he was thinking of Nikki Haley when he said that. Maybe that's it. 

At first I thought he had a plan to enliven his base - Look fellow maggats, she's not only a woman, but she's got dark skin, gasp!  Then I realized he is actually beyond making a rational plan for anything (not that racism is rational). With his mental issues, he just reacts to whatever situation in which he finds himself. 

I used to think/hope that his followers would finally wake up after whatever his latest, egregious foupaux was. But they never will. Never. Even if he ever did shoot that person on 5th avenue, his followers would just say, see, that proves he's a man of his word. 

As PG said years ago:  What is wrong with these people?  They will never change, and they seem to be about a solid 44% of American voters (and they believe strongly in reproducing). Harris and the rest of us have to hope she can nibble away enough on the edges of the swing states. It looks like that is happening, but there is still a lot of time.

[goldenvalley]

I've been reading articles in The Bulwark which was created by several former Republicans after Trump was elected.  One of the authors, JV Last, had a fascinating article, Pro-Wrestling Explains Why Trump is Scared of Kamala. I have never read a political analysis like this one.

A wrestler’s most important job is to draw heat from the audience and it does not matter if the audience is booing or cheering. What matters is that they are loud and active. What matters is that the crowd cares.

Heat has been Trump’s political lodestar.

It explains why he pursued the Obama-birther story so doggedly even before he was running for president. It explains why he stopped talking about Operation Warp Speed. He’s even talked about heat explicitly, making fun of Republican audiences who yawn when he mentions about tax cuts but go crazy when he does trans issues.

In his lizard brain, Trump sees drawing heat as the pathway to dominating the culture and thus winning elections.

In this way, Trump is a savant. He has drawn heel heat more successfully than any figure in the history of American politics and used that power to take complete ownership of a political party.


So from Trump’s perspective, you can understand why he was so vexed by Joe Biden in 2020. No one really cared about Biden, who drew no heat, one way or the other. Biden was just kind of there, taking moderate positions and running a boring, effective campaign operation.

In Trump’s mind, his loss to Biden was the political equivalent of Hulk Hogan dropping the championship belt to some forgettable, mid-card talent. That’s not supposed to happen.

He goes on to talk about Kamala Harris' role in this pro wrestling soap opera:

Not to put too fine a point on it, but when Donald Trump looks in the mirror, he sees Vince McMahon [owner of WWE]. And when he looks at Kamala Harris, he sees Daniel Bryan .

He sees a candidate who wasn’t supposed to be here in the first place.

Who doesn’t look the part.

Who isn’t what the crowd is supposed to want.

But he also sees a candidate who is in the process of drawing enormous amounts of heat and assembling a popular movement of people who really want her.

And Trump is a shrewd enough demagogue to understand that once the culture moves in that way, it will not be denied.

[indy]

Aug 1, 2024 16:19:12 GMT goldenvalley said:

Harris is Indian; no she's Black. The intent is to make both groups mad at her and to get the racists riled up to say you can't trust her.  I started to think this is what he was doing at the famous interview with Black journalists yesterday but then I saw someone opine that really he was thinking of Nikki Haley when he said that. Maybe that's it. 

Or maybe Vance's wife? Of course, Vance just refers to her as 'obviously not white' so maybe Trump didn't know she is Indian? Or maybe he thought she was actually native american? Who knows what rattles around in Trump's empty head. It's a fool's errand to even try.

It should be interesting to watch Vance defend his children against the idea that people can't legitimately be biracial. Oh right, I forgot for a moment that it's modern Republicans we are talking about.

[Rue Bella]

Trump seems to have something against "Indians", and it goes back many years. At this point in his addled life however, he may not be able to differentiate between Native American and Asian Indians. They probably all look alike to him.

I just saw an old clip of Trump ranting/disparaging Native American Indians and their casinos, with him complaining that the heads of US Indian Casinos don't even look like Indians. It was something about gaming licenses, I think.

Now in 2024, toss in Nikki, Kamala, and Usha, all 'uppity' Indian women, and the old boy is all mixed up.

[AnBr]

Aug 1, 2024 16:19:12 GMT goldenvalley said:

I started to think this is what he was doing at the famous interview with Black journalists yesterday but then I saw someone opine that really he was thinking of Nikki Haley when he said that. Maybe that's it. 

[indy]

TRUMP PROPOSES A FOX NEWS DEBATE WITH HARRIS ON SEPTEMBER 4

According to Mr. Trump’s post on social media, the debate would take place in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state.

Former President Donald J. Trump said late Friday that he agreed with Fox News to debate Vice President Kamala Harris on Sept. 4, a proposal that has not yet been accepted by the Harris campaign. If it happens, it would be the second presidential debate this election cycle and the first between Mr. Trump and the new Democratic candidate.

I'm super pissed about this. This was the same night I had agreed to fight Mike Tyson. We were to fight for a $2 million purse which I had agreed to let him put up. I had also agreed to let it be in my back yard with my wife as the referee. I had agreed to the rules and he was to wear a cement body suit while also being hog tied. If it happens, it would be the first fight between us this presidential cycle. Probably nobody will watch now. How annoying.

[goldenvalley]

Aug 3, 2024 16:55:52 GMT indy said:

TRUMP PROPOSES A FOX NEWS DEBATE WITH HARRIS ON SEPTEMBER 4

According to Mr. Trump’s post on social media, the debate would take place in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state.

Former President Donald J. Trump said late Friday that he agreed with Fox News to debate Vice President Kamala Harris on Sept. 4, a proposal that has not yet been accepted by the Harris campaign. If it happens, it would be the second presidential debate this election cycle and the first between Mr. Trump and the new Democratic candidate.

I'm super pissed about this. This was the same night I had agreed to fight Mike Tyson. We were to fight for a $2 million purse which I had agreed to let him put up. I had also agreed to let it be in my back yard with my wife as the referee. I had agreed to the rules and he was to wear a cement body suit while also being hog tied. If it happens, it would be the first fight between us this presidential cycle. Probably nobody will watch now. How annoying.

You're giving Borowitz a run for his money!

[indy]

I think the fact that such a ridiculous ploy in the middle of the night was taken seriously by some major news outlets (including the NYT before the adults apparently came to work) tells you a whole lot about the state of journalism, and certainly a whole lot more about how campaigns have figured out how to capitalize on the weaknesses.

[indy]

Nate Silver's election model just switched from Trump to Harris as the (very) slight favorite.

[goldenvalley]

Aug 4, 2024 23:13:11 GMT indy said:

Nate Silver's election model just switched from Trump to Harris as the (very) slight favorite.

I think the polls tend to lag events.  So the polls are just picking up the Harris move.  Of course, as we learned in the month of July, events can change perceptions of the election inside of two days.  We may see many shifts in polling between now and early November.

[Rue Bella]

I think the polls tend to lag events.

Yes, one commentator said a week or so ago, a great many people may not even realize Biden has dropped out, and there is a new option.

Harris also has a few traditionally positive events coming soon. VP announcement in days (too bad JD Vance is already taken)  And then the next week or so is the Convention, and hopefully the usual bounce.  Then perhaps a debate against an empty chair, or perhaps, somehow, an actual debate. Then eventually the Trump sentencing...

I must say it's refreshing to no longer hear about Hunter Biden's laptop.

[goldenvalley]

Aug 5, 2024 0:22:52 GMT Rue Bella said:

I must say it's refreshing to no longer hear about Hunter Biden's laptop.

Huzzah!