Ukraine

[LFC]

This is amateur hour.

This is incredibly clever.

[LFC]

General status reports. Russian advances, already anemic, seem to have stopped.

Railways in Crimea have been cut, greatly increasing time and difficulty of supplying the front lines. (With the reports going around it also seems like a bunch of individual trucks allow for a lot more opportunities for theft by officers, something that already seems to be rampant.)

People are fleeing Belgorod. Yes, that is a city in Russia.

[LFC]

F*** Oliver Stone, another Putin puppet like Steven Seagal.

These are the kind of people he supports. Russia attack their country and now, for the sin of defending themselves and being successful at it, the population must be murdered, tortured, raped, robbed, and everything else that the Russians have already been doing. Thank you, Oliver Stone, for being a staunch defender of war crimes. Oh, you don't see it that way? F*** you.

[LFC]

Yes! Please, YES!

[Bact PhD]

Aug 20, 2022 17:28:49 GMT LFC said:

F*** Oliver Stone, another Putin puppet like Steven Seagal.

These are the kind of people he supports. Russia attack their country and now, for the sin of defending themselves and being successful at it, the population must be murdered, tortured, raped, robbed, and everything else that the Russians have already been doing. Thank you, Roger Stone, for being a staunch defender of war crimes. Oh, you don't see it that way? F*** you.

Not to sound too picky, but both the Tweet and the poster refer to director *Oliver* Stone, of “JFK” and “Nixon” notoriety. Yeaah, he may have been a fantastic director once upon a time, but he fell into a weird-ass rabbit hole decades ago.
I don’t see any references to Roger, traitorous f-wad he may be.

[LFC]

Aug 20, 2022 17:51:13 GMT Bact PhD said:

Not to sound too picky, but both the Tweet and the poster refer to director *Oliver* Stone, of “JFK” and “Nixon” notoriety.

ACK! I knew who I was discussing, just f***ed up the name. I'll fix it. Thx for letting me know.

[indy]

Aug 20, 2022 17:21:03 GMT LFC said:

This is incredibly clever.

This reminds me of a joke I heard:

There are some Russian soldiers marching in Ukraine when they hear a voice shout from over a hill: “I bet one Ukrainian can beat ten Russians!”

The Russian sergeant in charge, thinking that it would be an easy kill, sends ten men over the hill. He hears them fighting, but no Russian soldier comes back and soon he hears the voice from over the hill again: “I bet 1 Ukrainian can beat 100 Russians!”

The sergeant, annoyed, sends the rest of his men, easily numbering more than 100, to finish the Ukrainian off. Again, there is fighting but this time a lone soldier stumbles back, bloody and injured.

“What happened?” asks the sergeant.

“It was a trap!” replies the soldier. “There were two Ukrainians!”

[LFC]

This is nauseating. Put is totally content to rule the ruins. He'll have his grand victory (repeatedly defined down) no matter how many people he has to sacrifice to get it.

[LFC]

Another Russian ammunition dump blew up.

It's very interesting to see how the two sides are waging this fight.

Russia seems to be intent on simply destroying Ukraine and its people through shelling. In the norther-central part of the front they continue to wage attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions, gaining little to no ground and using up men, equipment, and supplies. It's like they think if they make a break in the line everything will change, or something. I don't understand what they're hoping to accomplish. They may not know themselves.

Ukraine seems to be focused on destroying equipment, especially anti-aircraft capabilities, and disrupting / lengthening supply lines. Maybe they're hoping that come winter the Russians will be in a horrible situation where they are poorly supplied and what supply lines are open will be vulnerable. Could they inflict a significant number of casualties by literally freezing them to death or injuring with frostbite? It seems like they could grind any shred of morale left into the snow.

[LFC]

An analysis of the past nearly 6 months talks about what Russia did and didn't have going into this fight and where both Russia and Ukraine stand now. A few things jumped out. The first is the ability to actually coordinate your forces to bring all of your capabilities into a single operation. Russia doesn't have this and didn't from the start of the war.

RU lacked the ability to execute combined arms operations (CAO’s), defined as combining infantry, tanks, fires (arty or air), engineers (for river crossings, demining operations, etc), aviation, intel, & logistics to seize, occupy, & defend land areas or secure ground. 3/

Executing CAOs is much more difficult than what many might comprehend. It takes years of developing the right kind of leaders and soldiers, getting the right equipment, having the right doctrine, doing the right kind of training & exercises, and...4/

having the right kind of govt to support those activities without grift or corruption. (It's what the US Army does at 3 different major training centers). It's more than “giving Ukraine everything they need” and believing it will automatically become a modern & capable force. 5/

Russia came into this fight thinking they could execute a “Desert Storm-like offensive” that would be completed in a few days . This was delusional. They lacked the leadership, training, equipment, to do it. Given RU culture & systems, they aren't capable of fixing this. 6/

The UA -while *relatively* well-trained, well-led, w/ high morale, & having support from their govt, citizens & having the will to continue the fight– also, unfortunately, does not currently have the training or the type of organizations & equipment for large scale CAO’s. 7/

Don’t get me wrong, UA *can* execute defensive operations, counterattacks, hasty attacks & smaller scale CAO’s. They are not yet capable of large-scale CAO's over large areas. BUT, they are adapting, training w/allies, incorporating new equipment, and doing so very quickly. 8/

Here's where things stand in the south. I looked up Rostov-on-Don on a map (it's in Russia). If they have to supply the front from there they're looking at a roughly 600 km / 9 hour drive to reach Kherson. That's a lot of vulnerability, especially if Ukraine keeps beating on their air defenses and they get those U.S. A10s which are built to perform exactly that kind of mission.

In the S., RU's goal of achieving operational obj required occupation of ground. They were not able to do that due to poor maneuver capability & bad leadership, so they relied on a scorched earth campaign. Result: destruction of infrastructure & an attempt to seize/secure...10/

cities as limited objectives. Holding onto that (securing objectives) is extremely hard in a contested environment.

Russia is now stalled in the south & can only resupply from Rostov-on-Don (in Russia) or from Russian bases in Crimea (which is now being threatened).11/

-In the S, UA is now targeting logistics & supply lines with precision “fires” (arty, air, special ops, resistance saboteurs), while defending & conducting limited attacks to regain ground with conventional forces.
They’re also conducting a guerilla campaign. 12/

On where things stand now. Ukraine is getting ready and doing what they can. Russia already has more on their plate than they're capable of handling.

What UA is doing now is “prepping the battlefield” while conducting limited counterattacks & guerilla ops that contribute to the early stages of a counter-offensive. Because that is what they are capable of doing *right now*. That will change soon, but it will take time. 15/

Early RU goals were beyond their capability. Reducing the goals didn't help. Now, RU's defending in more places against a growing conventional UA threat & an expanded guerilla war. UKR has transitioned to the offense & can pick where they attack; RU is now on the defense.16/

I would assume the smart would be for Russia to pull back, again, to a defensible territory but I can't believe that's really in the cards. For one thing the chance of losing Crimea would skyrocket. Of course they may lose it anyway. If they continue to try to hang on in the south and they lose, which is looking more likely, then they'll lose yet more equipment and troops which ion turn shrinks the size of what could be defensible territory to the north.

I'd love to hear expert opinion on what would happen if Ukraine takes back Crimea. It feels like they could hold it relatively easily because Russia is in such disarray. The Black Sea Fleet is scared spitless, clearly vulnerable, and it's doubtful they have the capacity to make any real attempt at an amphibious assault.

[LFC]

Ukraine bagged a twofer by taking out an important bridge and doing it just as ammo trucks were crossing.

Locals from occupied #Kherson city report that the automotive Antonisvkiy bridge across the Dnipro river is no more. Today, #Ukraine AF struck the bridge again right at the moment when 9 Russian trucks full of ammo were crossing it. Ammo explosions facilitated its destruction.

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

Date   Vehicles     Tanks       Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks
5/27:  4150 (+475)  733 (+62)  13 weeks
6/02:  4207  (+57)  747 (+14)  14 weeks
6/09:  4273  (+66)  762 (+15)  15 weeks
--
7/05:  4573 (+200)  830 (+68)  19 weeks
7/12:  4683 (+110)  865 (+35)  20 weeks
7/19:  4738  (+45)  869  (+4)  21 weeks
7/26:  4822  (+84)  887 (+18)  22 weeks
8/02:  5038 (+216)  922 (+35)  23 weeks
8/09:  5103  (+65)  930  (+8)  24 weeks
8/16:  5200  (+97)  952 (+22)  25 weeks
8/23:  5321 (+121)  970 (+18)  26 weeks

That's 6 months. With the limited engagements occurring I'm surprised Russia is still losing this much equipment. Tank losses have been lowish for weeks but maybe they're losing trucks as supply lines become longer and more dangerous.

[LFC]

This could just be PR but it sounds about right. Ukraine's economy seemed to be on the rise when Putin decided to invade and f*** everything up. Meanwhile Russia has depended on oil, gas, and a trapped customer base (many nations as the USSR, very few now) to keep sputtering along. And it can't be good for Putin to have the people he told were superior to Ukrainians seeing that they were living a better, more comfortable life than they were.

Ukraine’s Russian ‘Liberators’ Are Seeing That We Live Better Than They Do

By Yegor Firsov
Mr. Firsov is a medic in the Ukrainian military in eastern Ukraine. He was a member of the Ukrainian Parliament from 2014 to 2016.

In early April I walked into Andriivka, a village about 40 miles from Kyiv, with my battalion in the Ukrainian territorial defense forces. We were among the first Ukrainian troops to enter the village after a Russian occupation that had lasted about a month. Shell casings and boxes of ammunition were scattered everywhere, and the houses were in various states of ruin. In one of the yards we passed there was an abandoned burned-out tank sitting on the grass.

The Russians killed civilians in Andriivka, and they ransacked and looted houses. The locals told us something else the Russians had done: One day they took mopeds and bicycles out of some of the yards and rode around on them in the street like children, filming one another with their phones and laughing with delight, as if they’d gotten some long-awaited birthday present.

A few days earlier we were in Bucha, a suburb northwest of Kyiv that was subjected to an infamously brutal occupation. The people there told us that when the first Russian convoy entered the town, the troops asked if they were in Kyiv; they could not believe that such idyllic parks and cottages could exist outside a capital. Then they looted the local houses thoroughly. They took money, cheap electronics, alcohol, clothes and watches. But, the locals said, they seemed perplexed by the robotic vacuum cleaners, and they always left those.

One resident, who told me that she was taken hostage by the Russian soldiers in her house, said they could not get over the fact that she had two bathrooms and kept insisting that she must have more people living with her.

This war is Vladimir Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the massive losses of troops and tanks but because Mr. Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and politically inferior.

Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.

[LFC]

Thoughts on what an Ukrainian offensive would likely look like in the southerly Kherson region. Success is hardly a forgone conclusion but if it succeeded it would a humiliation for Putin. He's in a political position where he can't withdraw but may not have the resources to defend the territory he took. If he sends the necessary forces to defend the region he leaves somewhere else open to attack. He's stretched and Ukraine has all the choices on where and when to attack.

One way or another, according to Ukraine’s leadership, it's bound to happen.

Even though the Battle of Donbas is far from over, Ukraine is expected to open the next chapter of the war sometime in the near future — a highly anticipated, major counter-offensive operation in the south, particularly to liberate the Russian-occupied city of Kherson.

Kyiv has declared its intentions to liberate the only regional capital captured by Russia following the Feb. 24 full-scale invasion.

Experts across the world agree that retaking Kherson is the most feasible way for Ukraine to score a major victory over Russia and turn the tide of the war. As part of a counter-offensive operation, Ukraine would likely seek to block the occupied city, cut the Russian garrison off from supplies and reinforcements, and hold the blockade until Russia surrenders.

This would be a daring mission, demanding the most effective contribution of all components ranging from infantry to air defense and counter-battery activity.

Thanks to local terrain and Russian military flaws, Ukraine's plan may in fact be realistic.

But in order to carry it out, Ukraine's military would have to demonstrate excellent coordination of war power and do the difficult work of clearing the area of Russian forces, supply lines, and ammunition depots — before going in.

If this happens before winter and the Russians left without supply lines the toll could be staggering. I feel for the civilians who would be trapped, and robbed for every last thing, along with them.

[LFC]

Putin is one sick motherf***er.

American citizens have again been urged to get out of Ukraine ahead of potentially imminent Russian strikes on civilian areas.

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said in an alert Tuesday that U.S. authorities have “information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days.”

“The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so,” the alert said.

The warning coincided with equally alarming news from the Ukrainian defense ministry, which said “elevated radiation levels” had been detected around the Zaporizhia power plant in Enerhodar as a result of Russian shelling.

Russian forces have resorted to a “new method” at the largest power plant in Europe, the defense ministry said: targeting areas that store ash from the plant that contains high levels of radiation.

“As a result of the mortar strikes on the ash dumps, clouds of dust are forming and being carried by the wind throughout Enerhodar,” the agency warned, noting that the radioactive dust is “able to travel long distances.”

[LFC]

Russia has to get control over those damn careless smokers.

Social media users in Donetsk City additionally reported a large explosion at a Russian ammunition depot in the east of Donetsk City.[18] Several Russian sources claimed that the explosion was the result of a Ukrainian strike.[19]

[LFC]

Russia continues to make excuses for getting its ass kicked.

Ukraine takes every one of these denials as an opportunity to further mock and minimize Putin.

[LFC]

So what can Russia look forward to? A lot more weaponry pointed their way. The U.S. committed an additional $3B.

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent
⚡️US to announce $3 billion in military aid for Ukraine as war hits 6 months.

The new security package will be announced on Aug. 24, which marks both Ukraine’s Independence Day and exactly six months of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Reuters reported, citing a U.S. official.

And Germany, if Sholz doesn't f*** it up, is finally getting in the game.

Vatniks Hunter 🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦
@patriot_singles
Replying to
@kyivindependent

Germany just announced 🇩🇪 500 mio. Euro military aid package.

Now we will see the results of the Ramstein Meetings for the #Ukraine 🇺🇦 offensive.

The time of the foreplay is over. 😎

#SlavaUkraini happy Independence Day 🇺🇦

[LFC]

The resistance just racked up a fairly significant target. Every Russian will be scared of every Ukrainian now, and for good reason. Being invaded and watching your friends, neighbors, and family get slaughtered in a series of war crimes just does  something to people.

[LFC]

This puts things in perspective. Russia is holding territory from their initial attack but have been forced to withdraw quite a bit. Also that the rhetoric hasn't really changed about wanting to take over all of Ukraine.

• Russian forces have lost an area larger than Denmark since the high-water mark of their invasion of Ukraine in mid-March and gained an area the size of Andorra (one percent of what they have lost) in the last 39 days.

• Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reaffirmed that Russia has not changed its maximalist strategic war aims.

[LFC]

This is some interesting news, mainly 2, 3, and 4.

- Russian authorities are deploying security forces to Luhansk Oblast likely in response to waning support for the war and growing unwillingness to fight among Luhansk residents. 2/

- Russian authorities’ deployment of Rosgvardia elements to security duties in occupied Luhansk Oblast diverts these forces from operations elsewhere in Ukraine, likely contributing to the broader Russian failure to translate limited tactical gains into operational successes. 3/

- Unverifiable sources reported that axis commanders in Ukraine are reporting directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, bypassing both the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov in the chain of command. 4/

Somebody pointed out that #4 is basically what happened when Hitler, who was also inexperienced in actual warfare, took over direct control over operations. Putin is a spy, not a general. That's been pretty obvious from the opening failures of their attack on Ukraine.

[LFC]

Apparently Russia invading Germany and Poland isn't a topic of the ultra-fringe.

As one re-tweeter said:

Future historians will study Russia’s descent into violent and delusional nationalism as my generation studied the Great Terror and Nazi Germany.

[LFC]

Dafuq? Are things really that shitty, morale that low, and discipline that bad?

Internal friction between elements of different Russian conventional forces, special forces, private military company (PMC) workers, and national guard elements may be increasing. An unconfirmed Twitter post, which cited sources within the 22nd Spetznaz Brigade, claimed that relations between Russian Spetznaz units are breaking down, as are relationships between Spetznaz units and PMC elements.[36] The post claims that a conflict between groups from two Spetznaz brigades and a PMC unit turned into an armed fight when one Spetznaz unit sided with the PMC unit instead of the other Spetznaz unit.[37] The Russian military leadership is leveraging PMC elements such as the Wagner Group and Spetznaz as key maneuver elements, and internal firefights between these factions could erode the mutual confidence necessary for troops to cooperate effectively in combat.

[goldenvalley]

Aug 26, 2022 18:02:55 GMT LFC said:

Dafuq? Are things really that shitty, morale that low, and discipline that bad?

Internal friction between elements of different Russian conventional forces, special forces, private military company (PMC) workers, and national guard elements may be increasing. An unconfirmed Twitter post, which cited sources within the 22nd Spetznaz Brigade, claimed that relations between Russian Spetznaz units are breaking down, as are relationships between Spetznaz units and PMC elements.[36] The post claims that a conflict between groups from two Spetznaz brigades and a PMC unit turned into an armed fight when one Spetznaz unit sided with the PMC unit instead of the other Spetznaz unit.[37] The Russian military leadership is leveraging PMC elements such as the Wagner Group and Spetznaz as key maneuver elements, and internal firefights between these factions could erode the mutual confidence necessary for troops to cooperate effectively in combat.

How many mercenaries are in this world and could Russia afford to pay them?  If I were a mercenary I'd demand money up front.

[jackd]

Like if you were a Trump lawyer; do you suppose Putin is learning from him?