Ukraine

[LFC]

Tucker Carlson wasn't the only one who completely flubbed the situation. A UN rep from France blew it pretty badly too.

France's Permanent Representative to the UN Security Council, Nicolas de Riviere says that Ukraine is unlikely to regain the occupied territories

This is reported by Anadolu.

According to Nicolas de Riviera, he would be surprised if Ukraine could de-occupy the territories of Donbas and Crimea.

"I don't think a cease-fire will come in the near future. I am a little skeptical about Ukraine's ability to regain its lost territories," said France's Permanent Representative to the UN Security Council, Nicolas de Riviere.

Swing and a miss.

[LFC]

This sums up the naysayers pretty well. They should probably just STFU at this point.

Bruno Maçães
@macaesbruno

Note that the people who were wrong on Ukraine were wrong on everything: that there would be no invasion, that Russia would win quickly, that Ukraine would collapse, that Russia could not be humiliated, that Ukraine could not resist, that Ukraine could not fight back…

[LFC]

The poster says it's a "bold prediction" but one of the links above stated that Ukraine had only committed about 1/3 of the troops they had prepared. There's certainly a contingent holding the Kerson  line and beating on the Russians down there without pushing forward. That means any Russians tied up there can't budge. All we can do is wait and see.

During this entire offensive I've been thinking that some people might be getting ahead of their skis, only to find out that they were still halfway up the slope.

[indy]

[andydp]

I've always regarded Reuters as being a pretty fair and balanced service.  Note the portion I outlined.  Seriously, Putin is in big big big trouble.  Some comments on Twitter basically said Russia was never a super power.  There's an embedded video in the link.

Russia gives up key northeast towns as Ukrainian forces advance

KYIV/HRAKOVE, Ukraine, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Moscow abandoned its main bastion in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday, in a sudden collapse of one of the war's principal front lines after Ukrainian forces made a rapid advance.

The swift fall of Izium in Kharkiv province was Moscow's worst defeat since its troops were forced back from the capital Kyiv in March. Ukraine hailed it as a turning point in the 6-month-old war, with thousands of Russian soldiers leaving behind ammunition stockpiles and equipment as they fled.


www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-troops-raise-flag-over-railway-hub-advance-threatens-turn-into-rout-2022-09-10/?fbclid=IwAR1dUs7bijJp2w2w01SlbRMcMMDTEHhKwBD_K9kKCOU3pYvWXjFA2s6MBEI

[indy]

You know, I hate to be the one to rain on a parade but Putin still has full mobilization in his back pocket. If that happens, he will still have poorly trained and ill-equipped soldiers, but he'll have one hell of a lot of them. And it's not like Russians have ever been shy about sending them in to be slaughtered.

[indy]

[LFC]

Sept 11, 2022 0:25:03 GMT indy said:

You know, I hate to be the one to rain on a parade but Putin still has full mobilization in his back pocket. If that happens, he will still have poorly trained and ill-equipped soldiers, but he'll have one hell of a lot of them. And it's not like Russians have ever been shy about sending them in to be slaughtered.

a) You still have to equip them. They've already been scraping the bottom of the Soviet era barrel and they don't have the capacity to ramp up any time soon.

b) They'd have to pull a lot of those new draftees from the provinces, some of which are under Moscow's rule only by force or threat of force. Getting numbers of conscripts would require more force that Moscow might not really have.

c) How will you get them to actually go into battle? Start killing a bunch of them to scare the rest into serving? Even in numbers these kinds of troops won't be effective. And when a large mass of people are lined up to simply get mowed down, in hopes enough get through, you get even quicker retreats than we're already seeing today. That is, of course, if they don't just mutiny.

I think the chance to use full mobilization has passed. It would have always been politically dangerous but I think it would be perilous for Putin at this point.

[LFC]

A top Russian commander may have been captured.

Ukrainian media outlets and social media users have speculated that a top Russian commander has been captured as Kyiv's counteroffensive against Moscow's forces gathers pace.

Images and video shared on Twitter and Telegram purportedly show Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi among a group of Russian troops handcuffed on their knees with one social media user saying they were near Balakliya, in the Kharkiv region.

Many noted the similarity of one of the captured men to other images of Sychevoi.

[LFC]

The Russian defense has collapsed. The restraining factor on how far Ukraine can push is now their own supplies and abilities.

Thomas C. Theiner
@noclador

The russian forces West of the Oskil river have collapsed.

Ukraine can now cross the Oskil and pursue the russians to the Aidar river. The russians don't have the forces to block such an advance. How far Ukraine's offensive will go depends on the supplies Ukraine stockpiled
1/2

before its offensive; how much of that was expended; and how many russian supplies have been captured.

With an enemy on the run one ideally pursues him to never let the enemy rally and establish a new defensive line.

My hope is that Ukraine has stockpiled massive supplies.
2/2

[LFC]

This is nearly 600 square miles in less than a week.

Def Mon
@defmon3

The size of the liberated area I've been able to confirm today amounts to 1509km2
This is colored in a darker blue.

[LFC]

Is Dnipro next?

[LFC]

More problems for Putin. Belgorod, Russia is brimming with military targets and they may soon be within Ukraine's artillery range. It's also the area the Russians have been using to launch missiles at Kharkiv for the past 7 months. I don't think Ukrainians will be feeling very merciful if they get the chance to shoot back.

[LFC]

More analysis.

5/ It will compromise Russian operations on their eastern front. The capture of the key transportation hub of Kupiansk hurts the Russians. It compromises Russian supply routes and introduces a larger psychological issue with Russians fighting in the east.



6/ It also makes it difficult for Russia to continue to fight in the east without dealing with this threat to their rear areas and logistics. And to do so, they may also have to pull troops from the south, creating other opportunities for Ukraine.

7/ Because of this Russian reinforcement ‘shell game’, we might see cascading Russian tactical withdrawals and failures in various regions as a consequence.

And then there are the international impacts for Putin, including with China. Putin now has a big "L" stamped on his forehead.

11/ The shift in the momentum of the war will have big impacts on the influence battle in Europe as well as China. In Europe, it will reinforce the case for ongoing military and economic support to #Ukraine despite Russia’s ‘energy warfare’.

12/ In China, this is a huge embarrassment for Xi in the lead up to the 16 October Party Congress. Not only has he shackled himself to a loser (Putin), but his ‘decline of the west’ narrative is again challenged. And support for defending #Taiwan is probably growing.

[LFC]

Perfect!

Darth Putin
@darthputinkgb

Looking back, I should known it would be disaster as soon as Trump said it was "genius move".

[LFC]

Daily Kos keeps pouring out the updates. The big news is that Russia is leaving all of Kharkiv Oblast. This is the state of things on the ground right now.

Let’s look at the big picture.



Blue hash is Kharkiv oblast, which Russia is supposedly abandoning entirely. Yellow is the parts of Luhansk Oblast Russia conquered since February. Open, empty, with few roads, Russia wasn’t able to hold it in the 2014 war. Not sure how strategic it is right now, and whether Ukraine will want to claw some of that back.

The pre-invasion Luhansk and Donbas border are clearly defensible, and that’s where Russia presumably will head. The green hash is the part of Kherson Oblast that Ukraine has cut off, with a heavy Russian presence suffering from poor-to-non-existent supply lines.

But what about the south? Reports a heavy Russian presence in the stretch between Mariupol and Melitopol, and Ukraine can’t cut those troops off. They can be resupplied easily via the Azov sea. Russia’s problem is that supply lines from there to Melitopol (and further west toward Kherson) are served by a single rail line, in the town of Tokmak.

Expect that place to start showing up soon, the way we always knew Kupiansk and Vovchansk would be keys to liberating Kharkiv.

[LFC]

More analysis that includes a recommendation on what Russian might be able to attempt to hold, though their military is getting pounded so badly that they may not be able to hold it.

Adapting a map from @war_Mapper Ive tried to show a rough, sensible defensive line (everything to the south of the black lines) that the RUssians might consider retreating to. Even then, I think their army is in real trouble, but it would be rational.



However even then, this might be too late and Putin, who has never seemed to grasp how the Ukrainians are fighting this war, will probably try to hang on to too much. Of course if he had any sense, he would try to end the war right now through negotiations.

[LFC]

Russian losses have been enormous in this war.

Mark Hertling
@markhertling

Battlefield math…

UKR reports 52,000+ RUs killed in action. Putin’s solatia payments seem to confirm this #. That’s staggering.

For perspective, that’s the equivalent of 3 US combat divisions (think 82d Airborne, 101st Air Assault, 1st Armored). US has 11 active divisions.

And how many more have been wounded? 3X? More?

[LFC]

This analyst doesn't think Putin would use nukes.

Ben Hodges
@general_ben

There is risk of Kremlin using a nuke in this situation but I think it's unlikely. There is no real battlefield advantage to be gained, it would be impossible for US to stay out/not respond, and I don't think Putin or his closest advisors are suicidal.

And...

Ben Hodges
@general_ben

US would respond to Russian use of a nuke because China, NK, Iran are watching. If we don't respond then they are emboldened. Response would not necessarily be nuclear. Lots of options in/around Ukraine Kremlin couldn't stop. They know this. That's why I think it's unlikely.

[LFC]

More on what's expected to come.

Thomas C. Theiner

A little map of the situation in Northern Luhansk after the rout of the russian invaders from Kharkiv Oblast.

Black 1 = the Oskil River frontline russia tries to establish.
Red 2s = the russian units retreating - those fleeing from Northern Kharkiv are on exterior lines and
1/n



therefore need much more time to reach the Oskil River, than the decimated russian units that fled from Izyum over the Oskil dam. However those russian units lost much of their equipment and vehicles, and all their ammo stores, so they are in no shape to defend a new
2/n

[snip]

If Ukraine chooses to liberate Northern Luhansk now, then speedy advances from Kupiansk over the Oskil or North from Lyman (Blue 4s)
5/n
will crush russian hopes of establishing a new frontline on the Oskil.
If Ukraine crosses the Oskil, then the next geographic feature suited for a new russian frontline is the Aidar River (Grey 5), but that is so close to the russian border, that russia would likely give up
6/n
all of Northern Luhansk and retreat South of the Siverskyi Donets... which is where russia was before 24 February. In short russia would lose every bit of Luhansk occupied at massive cost since the start of the full invasion this year.

[LFC]

DK reports on reax in Russia, some of which are beyond ridiculous. But this tidbit shows just how weak Russia has become. They're not even willing/able to defend a town right on their border.

What’s amazing about this video is that it has been geolocated to Kozacha Lopan, north of Kharkiv, literally on the Russian border.



Kozacha Lopan is particularly significant because 1) there was no reason for Russia to actually abandon it. There are no supply issues, it’s on the freaking border, off a major 4-lane highway 30 kilometers from Belgorod. Russia reinforced it with pre-made concrete bunkers. It would’ve cost Ukraine dearly to try and take it. So why abandon it? Yet we’re seeing that on all those border towns. When Russia decided to abandon the oblast, they really mean pulling everything out.

[indy]

Sept 11, 2022 16:03:44 GMT LFC said:

Sept 11, 2022 0:25:03 GMT indy said:

You know, I hate to be the one to rain on a parade but Putin still has full mobilization in his back pocket. If that happens, he will still have poorly trained and ill-equipped soldiers, but he'll have one hell of a lot of them. And it's not like Russians have ever been shy about sending them in to be slaughtered.

a) You still have to equip them. They've already been scraping the bottom of the Soviet era barrel and they don't have the capacity to ramp up any time soon.

b) They'd have to pull a lot of those new draftees from the provinces, some of which are under Moscow's rule only by force or threat of force. Getting numbers of conscripts would require more force that Moscow might not really have.

c) How will you get them to actually go into battle? Start killing a bunch of them to scare the rest into serving? Even in numbers these kinds of troops won't be effective. And when a large mass of people are lined up to simply get mowed down, in hopes enough get through, you get even quicker retreats than we're already seeing today. That is, of course, if they don't just mutiny.

I think the chance to use full mobilization has passed. It would have always been politically dangerous but I think it would be perilous for Putin at this point.

Well, what is more politically palatable to Putin, defeat or mobilization?

I certainly don't have enough insight into Russian politics to answer that question but I do believe that at the bottom of the Russian national psyche is a very intense inferiority complex which makes them dangerously unpredictable in this situation.

[indy]

[LFC]

Sept 11, 2022 22:18:12 GMT indy said:

Well, what is more politically palatable to Putin, defeat or mobilization?

I don't think he even has that choice anymore. They were already struggling to get people to join, the rural areas they depend upon have long held grudges with Moscow, and the entire war is a shitshow. He can announce mobilization all he wants. Executing it is a whole different business, and I doubt it's possible.

I certainly don't have enough insight into Russian politics to answer that question but I do believe that at the bottom of the Russian national psyche is a very intense inferiority complex which makes them dangerously unpredictable in this situation.

I agree with part of that but from what I've been reading since the invasion started it seems that a lot of that "national psyche" is exists inside the cities. If you look at the big pushes for troops they were consistently in the provinces and more rural areas. It's all well and good that the city folk have their mental issues but when push comes to shove do we really think they'll come out in big numbers to serve in the military, the same military that's getting its collective ass handed to it? Will they support a draft? They may have an inferiority complex, but they also have a "me, me, me" complex. Sacrifice for the greater good isn't exactly in their DNA, at least not unless they're going to be taken over a la WWII.

And we've already seen how the new voluntary units are performing. They're falling apart very quickly. Does anybody believe that non-voluntary units with even less training and lesser equipment will suddenly perform better? I just don't see it. I think Putin is now stuck with no good options.

[LFC]

Sept 11, 2022 22:53:35 GMT indy said:

Cheezes, a comedian has become the premier statesman of the decade. The term "rose to the occasion" is common enough but to this degree? He's impressive.