Ukraine

[andydp]

Sept 11, 2022 16:21:26 GMT LFC said:

The Russian defense has collapsed. The restraining factor on how far Ukraine can push is now their own supplies and abilities.

Thomas C. Theiner
@noclador

The russian forces West of the Oskil river have collapsed.

Ukraine can now cross the Oskil and pursue the russians to the Aidar river. The russians don't have the forces to block such an advance. How far Ukraine's offensive will go depends on the supplies Ukraine stockpiled
1/2

before its offensive; how much of that was expended; and how many russian supplies have been captured.

With an enemy on the run one ideally pursues him to never let the enemy rally and establish a new defensive line.

My hope is that Ukraine has stockpiled massive supplies.
2/2

As we have read in other posts, Russians have abandoned a lot of supplies.  Being a former "client" the Uk Army can easily use the ammunition in their artillery and small arms. Any armored vehicles are probably beyond rescuing.  Fuel is another issue.  Haven't seen or heard of fuel shortages in the Uk army but, if it was a problem we would have heard about it. 

[LFC]

Here's a commenter over at TPM who also doesn't see a path for Putin. This was a response to a worry about escalation.

alphadad
Prime Member

I’m not that worried about it. As I mentioned before, either Putin or his replacements could escalate. But, what would escalation actually look like? And this is where my mind calms down. How much worse can it be that what’s already been done - leveling of entire cities in the south and east? Been there, done that. And, since then Russia has used up huge stockpiles of weapons and can’t afford to bomb cities into ruin - especially since now Ukraine’s air defense has improved significantly. (Notice that the bombardment of Ukrainian cities has essentially ceased?)

About the only thing Russia can do is declare formal war and institute a draft. OK… that’ll take many months to spool up new forces. Meanwhile, is Ua sitting idle? Hell no! And, should Ru ever bring new troops to the battle, what are they going to fight with? Decrepit 70 year-old tanks? How are they gonna move all those troops around - more Scooby Doo vans? LOL. Ukraine, OTOH, has a military that is getting stronger with each passing month - new recruits getting trained in NATO countries, new and better weapons and ammo coming in all the time. So, if Ua hasn’t completely ended the war by the time Ru has new troops trained and ready to go, the final outcome is still inevitable.

So, we fall back to escalation of means (tactical nukes/chems) rather than escalation of scale. Tactical (small) nukes and chemical weapons remain a possibility, but a slim one. Why? Should Ru resort to such debauchery, it still won’t change the final outcome. It may buy time, but the use of WMD’s doesn’t provide Ru with the ability to retake and hold land. They don’t offer a genuine tactical advantage - just mayhem and suffering. But they also understand that the response to a from the world would dwarf the current response. While it might offer temporary tactical relief, it would ultimately backfire.

Although any escalation would create more death and suffering, none will offer a solution to Russia. And I think most officials in the Kremlin who aren’t Putin already know all of this. Remember that “national security” meeting that Putin convened back at the end of February? Nobody there looked happy about what Putin was laying out for them - and some look downright dismayed and pallid. They knew it was crazy back then. These people are still there.

[indy]

Hmmmm...In WWII, something like 10+ million Russian troops died, as well as another 10+ million civilians. They didn't have very good equipment, if any, but they had warm bodies, and lots of them, and they just kept sending them out to die. They starved the civilians to feed the soldiers, so the soldiers could just die anyway.

I think it's probably a mistake to project inherently western values and frameworks onto a not so western population. I certainly don't know what they will do, but I'm not foreclosing any possibilities either.

[AnBr]

I think it's also a mistake to say that the current Russia is the same as the USSR back then. True, oligarchs have been "falling" out of windows, but does he have the hold over the general populace as Stalin Had? There seems to be undercurrents that Putin is beginning face that were unthinkable for Stalin. Plus Russia is the aggressor this time. No fear of self preservation to motivate new solders. Not saying that all of this is the case, just that I think that it is as much a mistake to draw parallels with WWII era USSR as it is to "project western values".

Russian councillors call for Putin’s removal in daring anti-war protest

District council members in St Petersburg send a petition demanding the president's removal from office for committing treason

'Fully-Fledged Revolt' Against Putin Is Near, Russian Anarchists Say

As it became clear that the "operation" was not going to be a "three-day affair," as Putin had planned, but instead became an increasingly costly and prolonged conflict with sanctions devastating the Russian economy, pockets of resistance began to emerge around the country.

Initially what was a trickle of disparate reports of fires, explosions or forced evacuations around the country soon turned into a flood. By May, Russian military bases, conscription centers, transportation hubs and factories (especially those aiding the war effort) were reported to be on fire or exploding almost on a daily basis.

Amid these developments an underground resistance to the war began to emerge, with several groups spearheading the movement by taking credit for individual incidents of sabotage.

The most prominent and vocal among these appeared to be the National Republican Army, an anti-war and anti-Kremlin group that vowed to "overthrow" and "destroy" Putin in its manifesto.

Though not confirmed by the group itself, sources in Russia suggested the group was behind the death of a prominent Russian state TV journalist and daughter of one of Putin's closest allies, Darya Dugina. The daughter of Alexander Dugin, one of the masterminds behind the Kremlin's "Russian World" narrative, was killed by what was reported to be a car bomb.

Though official investigation very quickly placed the blame on "Ukrainian operatives," unconfirmed reports said Russian "partisans"—a clandestine group of guerrilla insurgents—was behind the bombing.

The NRA in its messaging, mostly via Telegram channels, also declared its readiness to attack military facilities in Russia, and called on Russia's security forces and the military to lay down their arms and refuse to carry out criminal orders.

[andydp]

Sept 11, 2022 23:16:01 GMT LFC said:

Sept 11, 2022 22:53:35 GMT indy said:

Cheezes, a comedian has become the premier statesman of the decade. The term "rose to the occasion" is common enough but to this degree? He's impressive.

It has precedent.

“Be not afraid of greatness. Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and others have greatness thrust upon them.”

― William Shakespeare, Twelfth Night

[LFC]

[LFC]

Sounds about what you'd expect from Russia. This isn't about anything strategic. It's just revenge and complete desperation for a "win", ANY win. And Putin is willing to sacrifice as many lives as it takes to get it. This is nothing short of barbaric.

In giving an excuse for why they suddenly lost more than 3,100 square kilometers of territory, Russia’s military propagandists used the same excuse they dragged out after Russia lost the battle for Kyiv; they said they were taking the troops out of Kharkiv Oblast to bolster their attack in the Donbas. Now they’re trying to make that “true,” no matter how many people have to die.

Over the last day, Russia’s assault on positions around the town of Bakhmut have increased enormously. They’re trying not just to show that there’s something behind their claims about “regrouping,” but to create a “win” that they can talk about in Russian media. They understand that they desperately need a distraction, especially when instances like this one noted by kos are popping up on Russian screens

What do Russian generals want? A win. Where do they want it? Bakhmut. And to get it, they are staging near continuous attacks in which artillery bounds Ukrainian positions while “zerg waves” of Russian infantry attempt to storm Ukrainian positions. The fighting may be the most intense of the entire invasion. So intense that at one point on Saturday, Russia reportedly agreed to a brief armistice in order to remove mounds of bodies along a slope leading up to Ukrainian positions.

Casualties for Russian troops in this assault are insanely high. But they are also extremely high for Ukrainian forces. As nimble as Ukraine has proven in its high-speed run across Kharkiv Oblast, the people fighting at Bakhmut are still in a position of being under a heavy artillery barrage, including regular strikes from MLRS and even thermobaric weapons. Their losses are also tremendous.

So much so that on Sunday morning there were concerns about whether sufficient Ukrainian forces remained at some locations to simply shoot the Russians who were coming at them across fields that had been stripped of any cover by days of continuous fire. Russian forces, including Wagner Group mercenaries, had reportedly captured a large factory at the edge of Soledar and were pushing into the streets of that town.

As of the time of this writing (7PM ET, 3AM in Kyiv), Ukrainian forces were reportedly still holding positions in Bakhmut and Soledar, but they continue to be under what is described as unrelenting assault. Mercenaries from the Wagner Group had reportedly reached an industrial area on the edge of Bakhmut, and were exchanging withering fire with Ukrainian troops, all while Russian artillery continues to pound Ukrainian positions near the center of town.

[LFC]

Ukraine has to slow down simply to keep track of everything and ensure troops remain supplied. This is what a total collapse of a defense looks like.

[LFC]

More consolidation.

[LFC]

Another mindless lashing out. If they were truly going to take out infrastructure for a long period of time this might make sense (or might not) but for a few hours? What a waste of high-end munitions that they are in no position to be burning through for half-assed reasons.

Oleksiy Sorokin
@mrsorokaa

Today Russia fired 12 missiles, worth nearly $100 million in total (according to Forbes Ukraine), to shutdown electricity in four Ukrainian regions for several hours.

Meanwhile, millions of Russians still don’t have a sewerage.

[LFC]

This is a massive loss of territory for the Russians. I'm sure this map is already out of date.

[LFC]

Ukraine is cutting into meat.

Viktor Kovalenko
@mrkovalenko

"They [the Russians] flee not only from Svatove, Starobilsk, and Troitske. They also flee from Alchevsk and Luhansk - the cities occupied since 2014. They pack belongings, gather families, and send them to Russia," said the Luhansk province governor Sergiy Gaidai on the Ukr. TV.

[LFC]

We're learning more about the amount of heavy equipment the Russian troops left behind in usable condition. The short description is, "a lot."

Ukraine may literally have to start creating new units.

Joel Rayburn
@joel_rayburn

Over the past 5-6 days the Ukrainians have captured enough Russian tanks & combat vehicles to outfit multiple brigades. 20+ tanks visually confirmed captured on Sunday alone. Many of the Russian losses will go straight into the Ukrainian order of battle. What a fiasco for Moscow.

This could be a real problem for Ukraine. [/snark]

OSINTtechnical
@osinttechnical

There are probably more captured Russian vehicles than tractors in Kharkiv Oblast right now.

[LFC]

More rumors about some (not all) Russians surrendering near Kherson.

KyivPost
@kyivpost

⚡️#Ukrainian official: Some units of #Russian soldiers located on the right bank of the #Dnipro river in #Kherson Oblast are trying to negotiate their surrender.

More info and again, some, not all.

Def Mon
@defmon3

I will speculate a bit in this thread.

"Some units" are not all units. It could be a company somewhere.

Then there is thisJacob Walker

@jvhwalker
 
Not an #OSINT reporter but a friend on the frontline in #Kherson just messaged to say Russian units in front of them are surrendering - they apparently shot through the last of their ammo last night.

If the problem is ammo, well then it's not only a problem for "Some units". I would assume it is a problem for at least all of those RU units east of the Inhulets river, if not all those west of the Dnipro.

Ukraine's long and relentless hammering of Russian supply lines in the south may be bearing fruit.

[LFC]

The loss of Kherson would be devastating for Russia.

Ben Hodges
@general_ben

Soon, after getting past Kherson, Ukrainians will be able to range most/all of Crimea...hitting all the Russian air and logistics bases there and making Sevastopol unusable for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Then it's just a matter of time...

Notice that the Black Sea Fleet has been a nothing burger since they took serious losses at the hands of Ukrainian counter attacks. I'm sure they could bring fire to bear anywhere along the coast when they started this thing. Now they're just trying to keep from losing another ship.

[LFC]

Morale boosting, Russian style.

Mart Kuldkepp
@kuldkeppmart
Yep, this will definitely improve the situation 🤡

Olga Lautman 🇺🇦
@olganyc1211

On his Telegram, Kremlin chief propagandist, Soloviev, called for the execution of Russian commanders who allowed the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region 🤷‍♀️ inforesist.org/ua/solovjov-za

[LFC]

Two zingers.

[LFC]

More analysis on what has happened and what we need to watch.

[pnwguy]

Sept 12, 2022 18:13:04 GMT LFC said:

Sounds about what you'd expect from Russia. This isn't about anything strategic. It's just revenge and complete desperation for a "win", ANY win. And Putin is willing to sacrifice as many lives as it takes to get it. This is nothing short of barbaric.

You could substitute "Trump" for "Putin", and the analysis would essentially be the same.  No wonder they are blood brothers in Team Autocrat.

If Trump was still president, the US would be supplying arms to Russia, not Ukraine.  But he'd sweeten the deal for himself with some Moscow Trump Tower agreements, as well as a few country club golf courses in the Crimea.  

[LFC]

Another map. Izium and the Oskil River were supposedly the front just 2-3 days ago. Lyman was a possibility. No wonder the Ukrainians can't keep up with the retreat.

[LFC]

Trouble in paradise? If this is remotely true then so much for a chance at general mobilization.

[LFC]

The big question is, of course, what's the game plan for Russia? They're going to lose all the territory they took in 2022 and the Ukrainian forces will be able to pound the ever lovin' shit out of any part of the Donbas they wish at will. So do they pull out of everywhere on the mainland but try to hold Crimea? It seems that strategically this warm water port is more important than just about anywhere else to them but what are the odds they can even hold that? Tough questions for Putin ... or some poor schmuck who will be forced to choose one of several awful choices and then have an "accident" when it doesn't work out.

[LFC]

F***ing conservatives. They didn't want to leave the worthless Afghanistan shitshow that was killing and wounding our troops and bleeding money like crazy but yeah, Ukraine costs too much and doesn't have a long-term plan. I don't which is driving this more, a hate for a Democratic president or embracing Putin but I'm sure it's some of each. The entire right wing in America are worthless pieces of shit without a principle between them beyond wanting power.

Conservative groups are lobbying members of Congress to vote against the White House’s request for additional money for Ukraine, arguing that the administration is asking for a blank check with no long-term plan to end the war.

The White House announced Friday that it would request an additional $13.7 billion to help Ukraine between October and December, including $11.7 for security and economic assistance and $2 billion to reduce energy costs that have increased during the war. Congress has already approved two supplemental funding packages, for $13.6 billion in March and $40 billion in May.

Conservative groups, including Heritage Action and Concerned Veterans for America, quickly urged lawmakers to reject the plea for additional aid.

“These funding requests ignore the concerns of the American people, and President Biden refuses to answer basic questions regarding fiscal responsibility and appropriateness of his funding requests,” Jessica Anderson, the executive director of Heritage Action, said in a statement. “U.S. support for Ukraine deserves an open and honest debate without liberal congressional leadership using funding for the U.S. government as a vehicle for Washington’s priorities.

Others, including Russ Vought, president of the Center for Renewing America and former director of the Office of Management and Budget, also slammed the request for more aid.

“The American people are tired of the neoconservative policy consensus that demands billions of their tax dollars be spent to defend the integrity of Ukraine’s border when resources and stewardship cannot be found to address our own,” Vought said. “This new package will prolong a fight that lacks an American dog, allowing regional allies to shirk their security responsibilities yet again.”

After the White House announcement, some right-leaning media organizations published headlines criticizing Republicans who support Ukraine funding, saying that they are ignoring domestic problems, including security at the border with Mexico. An article in The Federalist on Thursday slammed “McConnell and his fellow swamp creatures” for refusing to “put America’s security interests ahead of Ukraine’s.” Fox News’ Tucker Carlson has not yet weighed in on the latest ask, but said in May that “leaders believe protecting Ukraine is more important than protecting you.”

 

[goldenvalley]

Sept 13, 2022 3:12:02 GMT LFC said:

F***ing conservatives. They didn't want to leave the worthless Afghanistan shitshow that was killing and wounding our troops and bleeding money like crazy but yeah, Ukraine costs too much and doesn't have a long-term plan. I don't which is driving this more, a hate for a Democratic president or embracing Putin but I'm sure it's some of each. The entire right wing in America are worthless pieces of shit without a principle between them beyond wanting power.

Conservative groups are lobbying members of Congress to vote against the White House’s request for additional money for Ukraine, arguing that the administration is asking for a blank check with no long-term plan to end the war.

The White House announced Friday that it would request an additional $13.7 billion to help Ukraine between October and December, including $11.7 for security and economic assistance and $2 billion to reduce energy costs that have increased during the war. Congress has already approved two supplemental funding packages, for $13.6 billion in March and $40 billion in May.

Conservative groups, including Heritage Action and Concerned Veterans for America, quickly urged lawmakers to reject the plea for additional aid.

“These funding requests ignore the concerns of the American people, and President Biden refuses to answer basic questions regarding fiscal responsibility and appropriateness of his funding requests,” Jessica Anderson, the executive director of Heritage Action, said in a statement. “U.S. support for Ukraine deserves an open and honest debate without liberal congressional leadership using funding for the U.S. government as a vehicle for Washington’s priorities.

Others, including Russ Vought, president of the Center for Renewing America and former director of the Office of Management and Budget, also slammed the request for more aid.

“The American people are tired of the neoconservative policy consensus that demands billions of their tax dollars be spent to defend the integrity of Ukraine’s border when resources and stewardship cannot be found to address our own,” Vought said. “This new package will prolong a fight that lacks an American dog, allowing regional allies to shirk their security responsibilities yet again.”

After the White House announcement, some right-leaning media organizations published headlines criticizing Republicans who support Ukraine funding, saying that they are ignoring domestic problems, including security at the border with Mexico. An article in The Federalist on Thursday slammed “McConnell and his fellow swamp creatures” for refusing to “put America’s security interests ahead of Ukraine’s.” Fox News’ Tucker Carlson has not yet weighed in on the latest ask, but said in May that “leaders believe protecting Ukraine is more important than protecting you.”

 

I don't know how much traction they'll get unless they somehow convince people that the US is going into debt because of supplying Ukraine.  I'm thinking the arms manufacturers of America are just fine with the current situation and they have fancy tax lawyers to keep them from paying much more in corporate tax.  Will one of them quietly tell Carlson to shut up or is he serving a different master?

[LFC]

Equipment destruction update:

Date   Vehicles     Tanks       Since 2/24
3/18:  1574         244         3 weeks
3/25:  1831 (+257)  289 (+45)   4 weeks
4/01:  2175 (+344)  359 (+80)   5 weeks
4/07:  2614 (+439)  449 (+90)   6 weeks
4/14:  2885 (+271)  505 (+56)   7 weeks
4/21:  3068 (+183)  528 (+23)   8 weeks
4/28:  3248 (+180)  580 (+52)   9 weeks
5/05:  3417 (+169)  605 (+25)  10 weeks
5/12:  3623 (+206)  664 (+59)  11 weeks
5/19:  3675  (+52)  671  (+4)  12 weeks
5/27:  4150 (+475)  733 (+62)  13 weeks
6/02:  4207  (+57)  747 (+14)  14 weeks
6/09:  4273  (+66)  762 (+15)  15 weeks
--
7/05:  4573 (+200)  830 (+68)  19 weeks
7/12:  4683 (+110)  865 (+35)  20 weeks
7/19:  4738  (+45)  869  (+4)  21 weeks
7/26:  4822  (+84)  887 (+18)  22 weeks
8/02:  5038 (+216)  922 (+35)  23 weeks
8/09:  5103  (+65)  930  (+8)  24 weeks
8/16:  5200  (+97)  952 (+22)  25 weeks
8/23:  5321 (+121)  970 (+18)  26 weeks
8/30:  5362  (+41)  988 (+18)  27 weeks
9/07:  5554 (+192) 1022 (+34)  28 weeks (one day late)
9/13:  5907 (+353) 1087 (+65)  29 weeks

Cha-ching! This was the worst week for Russian losses in a while. I'm sure the numbers are still incomplete for the Kharkiv offensive. Worst of all for the Russians is that a lot of that equipment wasn't destroyed, it was captured and will be quickly integrated and used against them.