Ukraine

[LFC]

One of Russia's most prestigious tank units has been effectively destroyed. This was an elite unit that was trained and equipped to respond to any attack by NATO.

More on the rout and the amount of usable equipment being left behind.

[LFC]

The liberation of the Luhansk has begun.

[LFC]

This is where Russia decided to pour on the pressure. As reported before there doesn't seem to be a lot of strategic sense here. They're burning troops, equipment, and munitions on an area that has low strategic importance. If they managed break through ... then what? They'd be easy to cut off. None of the analysts can really make sense other than the desperation for a "win."

[LFC]

Gains in the Kherson region are much less dramatic but still continuing. It looks like the Ukrainians' strategy of degrade rather than engage is working. Here's a summary of what's going on.

Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.[1] Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City. The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humenyuk, stated on September 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law.[2] Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast are unlikely to have had such a dramatic psychological effect on Russian troops this far south, and both the withdrawal of troops from forward positions in Kyselivka and reports of surrender negotiations are indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south are progressing in a significant way, even if visibility on this axis is limited by the shift in focus to Kharkiv.

Here's a map showing just how abandoning Kyselivka allows Ukrainian forces to get much closer to Kherson.

And then there's general information on Russia's lack of willingness to send in green replacements.

The success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may be impacting the will or ability of the Russian military command to use newly formed volunteer units in Ukraine in a timely fashion. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian military command has suspended sending new, already-formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and widespread distrust of the Russian military command, factors which have caused a large number of volunteers to categorically refuse to participate in combat.[3] This assessment is still unconfirmed, but low morale due to Ukrainian counteroffensive success may prove devastating to the Kremlin’s already-poor ability to generate meaningful combat capability. The deployment of these newly formed units to reinforce defensive lines against Ukrainian counteroffensives would be an operationally-sound decision on the part of Russian military leadership; and the delay or potential suspension of these deployments will afford Ukrainian troops time to consolidate and then resume the offensive, should they choose to do so, without having to face newly arrived and fresh (albeit undertrained and understrength) units.

I suspect the military leaders are also saving something for some kind of last stand. If they lose the Donbas and/or Crimea then Putin's defeat will be complete humiliation.

[LFC]

Russians in the Kherson Oblast continue to be denied timely and efficient supplies.

Ukrainians are, however, supplying them with "surrender cards."

[LFC]

There are Russians leaving Crimea.

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent
⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.

The developments are a direct result of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, the report said.

[LFC]

Additional updates on a fairly granular level. These few items are interesting outside of the battlefield.

🔥 Internal conflicts:
[ audio recording, where 🇷🇺 military blaming LNR forces for fleeing and leaving equipment – 20 tanks, while generals begging to defend ].

However, intel reports that those were not LNR forces, but 11th corps from Kaliningrad. Now there is conflict between regular 🇷🇺 army and LNR.

In another report, Kadyrovites got in conflict with regular 🇷🇺 army near Kherson.

🔥 Ukraine bombings:
🇺🇦 keeps attacking warehouses and command posts. Recently high level headquarters of 🇷🇺 VDV were hit in Kherson.
🔥 Russian military:

Leaked intel shows 🇷🇺 ceasing to send new units to 🇺🇦, many refusing. Top 3 reasons are: disbelief in command, huge losses, not understanding perspective of war.

Commander of 🇷🇺 Western military district replaced after 15 days in position. Position now taken by Lapin. This illustrates collapse of command chain, and previous chaos in Kharkiv direction.

🔥 War crimes:
Newly liberated territories have war crimes already discovered.

🔥 Collaborators
Collaborators and immigrants in occupied territories can face up to 12-15 years in prison, and they do not get exchanged in POW exchange. Best action for them, is to flee to 🇷🇺 now. Let everyone remember – there won’t be 🇷🇺 here.

🔥 Kadyrov sends more troops
They don’t participate in battles, but try to catch deserters, participate in filtration, harass local population while searching for artillery spotters. Right now some are located on West bank of Dnipro river, uncertain if they will make out of there.

[LFC]

Russia is reduced to panhandling in Tajikistan.

[LFC]

More on Russian officials fleeing Crimea.

Russian commanders are reportedly fleeing the Crimean peninsula with their families, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

Kyiv claimed Russian officials had launched an “urgent evacuation” of Crimea, which was annexed by Moscow in 2014. This comes as the Ukrainian army looks to extend the significant territorial gains it has made in recent days.

Ukrainian intelligence sources said Russian nationals were “secretly trying to sell their homes and to urgently evacuate their relatives from the peninsula”.

[LFC]

Russian state TV is starting to tell the truth ... a bit.

Brutal realizations have been raining upon the Kremlin’s top propagandists—and when it rains, it pours. The same pundits who used to threaten NATO countries with nuclear strikes are begrudgingly acknowledging that Russia’s Armed Forces have suffered a series of humiliating setbacks in Ukraine.

Appearing on Russia’s NTV show The Meeting Place on Monday, policy analyst Viktor Olevich surmised: “Unfortunately, the situation is difficult. Can we say that the Russian forces moved closer to meeting the goals and carrying out the tasks set by the president at the beginning of the special operation—or did they get further away? Obviously, we’re now further away.”

Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, was even more outspoken. “For two months, Ukrainian Armed Forces and military equipment have been massing in that area, all Telegram channels have been writing about it. Where was our damn reconnaissance? All of their heads should be laying on Putin’s desk, hacked off at the base... Of course, this is a tactical defeat. I hope it will be very sobering.”

On Monday’s broadcast of The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, filmmaker Karen Shakhnazarov likewise dispensed a large dose of brutal honesty. “I urge everyone not to panic in the face of a defeat we’ve suffered in the Kharkiv region, and we have to acknowledge it,” he said. “A defeat has some meaning when you acknowledge it and draw new conclusions. And if you don’t acknowledge it, all you get is another defeat, perhaps even more devastating. This is a very difficult situation and we have to recognize that we’re battling a very powerful adversary.”

Shakhnazarov, whose public calls to cease the hostilities made waves shortly after Russia initially invaded Ukraine, regressed to a diametrically opposite position. With the conviction of a fatalist, he asserted: “No one can stop this war, because it was historically necessary... Neither Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin], nor Zelensky and not the West can end this war. This war can end only with the defeat of one of the sides. For us, this defeat may prove fatal. We should understand that it might lead to the disintegration of the country.”

Political scientist Sergey Mikheyev described recent developments in Kharkhiv as “a serious failure,” on the part of Russia. “Call it 'regrouping' or whatever else... This is our most serious defeat during the last six months, and the most significant success of our adversary... Perhaps this failure is beneficial, because being so obvious, now it’s impossible to pull the wool over our eyes, pretending that everything is wonderful,” he said.

Mikheyev argued that failures would likely prompt “serious people” to make some “radical decisions,” like striking Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure—a move that is often praised on Russian state TV, with propagandists promoting the idea of causing a total blackout that would deprive all of Ukraine of roads, bridges, electricity and running water.

[LFC]

This is some general reporting about Russia being in real trouble but out of it all the last paragraph below jumped out at me.

Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, announced on Facebook Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had reclaimed more than 300 settlements in the region since Sept. 6. She said that was the “confirmed” number, though “the real number … is almost twice as much.”

Russian defense officials, meanwhile, have offered comical explanations for the battlefield setbacks, claiming over the weekend that the retreat of forces from areas in Kharkiv was part of a “reshuffling” and “distracting” maneuver. On Tuesday, amid reports of new gains by Ukraine in the region, Russia’s Defense Ministry boasted of killing “foreign mercenaries” and state-run RIA Novosti bizarrely stressed that “at least one of them was dark-skinned.”

The Kremlin is also said to be resorting to increasingly desperate measures to keep the war going. Moscow recently turned to Tajikistan with hopes to purchase new ammunition for Soviet artillery systems, according to Ukrainian intelligence, and tried to recruit retired Tajik service members to join the battlefield.

And while Ukraine’s military was thought to have been outmanned by Russian troops at the start of the war, the tables now have apparently drastically turned: Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, told the Financial Times that Ukraine likely has at least five times more troops on the ground now than Russia does.

[LFC]

More on Russian losses. And Ukraine's increasingly large army.

Denmark is committing to training 10,000 more.

Denmark will train Ukrainian troops on its soil, Defence Minister Morten Bodskov told Danish news agency Ritzau during a visit to Kyiv, Barrons reported.

“There will be training in Denmark. I cannot give more details but the Ukrainian army will be training in Denmark,” Defence Minister Morten Bodskov told Danish news agency Ritzau during a visit to Kyiv.

The Minister added that Denmark has “many years of experience in training Ukrainian defense.” This was the case, for example, in Ukraine from 2015 until the Russian invasion on 24 February 2022.

The country has promised to send 130 instructors to the British program currently training 10,000 Ukrainian recruits in the UK. The announcement of training Ukrainian soldiers at home is an increase of the European Union and NATO member country’s support for Ukraine.

[LFC]

Another very important piece of Russian equipment left fully intact on the battlefield. If you add up all the damage Putin has done to the security and defense capabilities of Russia it's pretty staggering.

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |
@chuckpfarrer

MORALE IS A FACTOR: Ukraine Weapons Tracker @uaweapons reports that the the crew of this Russian R-934BMV UHF jammer bailed out and abandoned it in Kharkiv Oblast. Part of the Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare complex, it will be a bonanza for western intelligence.

[LFC]

For more in-depth reading here is a summary of the offensive that just occurred.

Daily Kos again has good updates. This is about where things stand and where Russia's next line of defense up north might be.

All of that might give Russia something of a head start on digging in at the next line of defense, except no one seems to quite know where that will be. Some Russian forces seem to have positioned themselves just across the Oskil River, which is a natural defensive position. On the other hand, Russian statements indicate that they were regrouping out of Kharkiv Oblast, and the Oskil is not the boundary between Kharkiv and Luhansk. The actual Luhansk boundary is pretty much nothing more than a line on the map represented on the ground by a stream here, a road there, nothing at all in another place; not exactly the best place to lay down a 100-kilometer-long defensive line. But on the other hand … you get the idea. Ukrainian forces are already across the Oskil in at least two locations, which doesn’t make the river all that great a boundary either.

On Wednesday, there are reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the river at two new places: near Borova and Kivsharivka. How these crossing took place isn’t clear as neither location is reported to have an intact bridge. Still, this isn’t the kilometer-wide Dnipro or a section of the Oskil that’s been turned into a reservoir by a dam. Ukraine may have simply brought in bridging equipment. They may even have used bridging equipment helpfully left behind by the Russians.

No matter how it happened, the Oskil River seems to be a porous barrier, and Russian forces attempting to set up on the eastern side of the river are in danger of being hit by Ukrainian forces moving north or south along the east bank. Already on Tuesday there was a report of a Russian convoy hit by Ukrainian troops all the way over at Kuzemivka, across the border in Luhansk Oblast, though it’s unclear if this represents a significant force on the Ukrainian side or just a few scouts.

All of this is why reports that Russian forces have withdrawn from places like Svatove may or may not be true, but are easy to believe. If Ukrainian forces are across the Oskil, there is simply not much in their way.

That’s also what makes the fighting going on by Lyman so important when it comes to extending Ukraine’s counteroffensive gains. Zelenskyy even mentioned Lyman as the next target for liberation. That city doesn’t just offer a base that would open up areas across both the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets, it’s connected by rail and highway to other locations captured in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Holding Lyman could make fast transport of troops and supplies much more possible. Plus it would be another very notable reversal for Russia inside Luhansk Oblast.

They go on to report that Lyman is still very much up in the air. Apparently Russians were there and more retreated to there, but who knows in what numbers or how prepared they are to defend the city.

[LFC]

Bottom of the barrel.

Saint Javelin
@saintjavelin

Ukrainian soldiers have captured a T-62

The russians are sending their troops into battle with 60 year old equipment.

[LFC]

Another good summary plus a reality check. There really is only so much human beings can handle.

Whether it was Vince Lombardi, Patton, or Shakespeare who said it, it's true: "Fatigue makes cowards of us all."

Forces in the attack can attack for about 4-5 days without breaking down.

That's not equipment, that's human beings. 12/

My experience in combat - as well as at our Army's national training center, where we study this - is that units will begin to fail if they aren't rested on day 5 of an offensive.

And commanders/leaders start making really bad decisions after 3 days of little/no sleep. 13/

We're waking up each day -after 5 days - looking at reports of UA's advance & saying "hope they go farther, take more!"

UA forces are whipped right now. Not just caused by movement & lack of sleep, but emotions associated with fighting.

I anticipate some needed "pauses." 14/

[LFC]

Shit! Scholz grew a pair! No more floundering. This is firm and unambiguous.

Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz
@bundeskanzler

Regierungsvertreter*in aus Deutschland

90 minutes phone call with #Putin: Russia must withdraw its troops from #Ukraine and recognize its sovereignty and territorial integrity. There is no other way to imagine a diplomatic solution.

[LFC]

Putin talking to Scholz? And this? Russia is clearly getting desperate for a break and is scared of losing not just their 2022 gains put potentially all of the territory they've stolen from Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent

⚡️Deputy Prime Minister: Russia asked Ukraine for negotiations amid counteroffensive.

Olga Stefanishyna told France24 that Russian officials had reached out to Ukraine to negotiate in recent days, a move she believes is aimed at stopping the rapid Ukrainian advance.

My, how things have shifted since March. Russia Putin blew the chance to increase their gains and, unless something major changes, are now looking at being forced to take losses ... or potentially destroy Russia as it now sits.

Euromaidan Press
@euromaidanpress
Ukraine’s new security treaty draft is much bolder than before

Ukraine has drafted a treaty by which guarantor states would ensure the country’s security in the face of Russian aggression. It is a light year away from the last such iteration in March euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/14/ukr

[LFC]

This sounds about what you'd expect from Putin.

At 1:50 he mentions Russia probably trying to consolidate their land bridge to Crimea as what they may view as achievable. The problem for them is that they would still be defending nearly 3X more border (nearly 400 miles) than they had before the war. That's maybe 60% of what they're defending now but it's still a lot, especially as the war of attrition rages on. If Ukraine continues to be armed by the West virtually every place Russia holds outside of the Crimea, and many places in Crimea, will be open to artillery and missile attacks. Yes, this war could still last a long time but Russia is rapidly running out of solid, achievable objectives.

[pnwguy]

Sept 14, 2022 18:10:39 GMT LFC said:

Yes, this war could still last a long time but Russia is rapidly running out of solid, achievable objectives.

The question is, what can the West do to deter the sociopath from creating billions of dollars of destruction to Ukraine as a spoiled brat that doesn't get his way?

[LFC]

Sept 14, 2022 19:30:42 GMT pnwguy said:

The question is, what can the West do to deter the sociopath from creating billions of dollars of destruction to Ukraine as a spoiled brat that doesn't get his way?

He's already at it.

As the post says the West needs to bring in more air defense systems. And they need to bring even more powerful and longer range weapons to the war. Escalation? Yes, but the cracks are forming in Russia's unity and Putin needs to be made to look weaker by the day. Blow up his toys as fast as possible.

[LFC]

Putin is still trying to recruit from the prisons. He wants to throw these troops against Western trained, highly motivated Ukrainians.

[LFC]

Terry Moran gave Biden his due, and laid out the importance of handling this crisis.

It may be worth saying something out loud here.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is obviously the greatest international security crisis since 9/11.

And, at this point, it’s got to be said that Joe Biden and his team have handled it masterfully. 1/

From forging (mostly behind the scenes) a united NATO diplomatic front against Moscow, one that has not cracked;

to the wrecking of the Russian economy, a process still in its early stages, which includes supporting European efforts to find alternative sources of energy; 2/

to the clear red line drawn at the Ukrainian border that has kept the US and NATO out of any fighting , and so far given Vladimir Putin no excuse to widen the war;

to the steady flow of US intelligence to Ukrainian forces, supporting their stunning achievements in the field; 3/

to the gigantic amount of arms and aid the US government has supplied directly to Ukraine, which is now proving decisive in the rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv, and changed the dynamic across the country—Joe Biden has, at this point, aced this test of his leadership. 4/

Of course, that is largely thanks to the amazing skill, resourcefulness and courage of the Ukrainian forces. But Biden has put the might of the USA behind them every step of the way. 5/

The strongman facade is crumbling and other countries are seeing that. Is it any wonder why some Republicans are doing their best to naysay every facet of this war?

It wasn’t easy. Here at home, there have been plenty of nationalist naysayers all along the way—Donald Trump and many of his followers, from Tucker Carlson to Marjorie Taylor-Greene to J.D. Vance and a horde of online armchair strategists and right-wing media types. 6/

They’ve praised Russia, blamed NATO, and predicted doom and defeat for Ukraine from the start. They’ve been exposed time and again as ill-informed at best, Putin stooges at worst. 7/

Putin is their ultimate model of a leader and he and the nation he's lead are crumbling. Time to blow more pixie dust out of their asses.

Putin’s brand of illiberal nationalism—which has been so seductive in so many countries to those who see liberal democracy as an outdated, weak and soulless model of governance—has been shown as a con, a cheap costume donned by the thieves and gangsters in the Kremlin. 11/

Even the neo-fascism of the “Z” movement that Putin has sponsored in Russia is looking more farcical than threatening (unless you’re Russian, of course.) 12/

And, most important, the United States looks different in the world. Because of Biden’s leadership, especially coming on the heels of the Trump disruption, Europeans and others have been reminded of the good America can do, given skillful American leadership. 13/

We may no longer be “the indispensable nation,” as Madeleine Albright said (truth is, we never were). But Joe Biden has shown again that American power and American values can be a difference-maker in the long struggle for freedom.

That’s a big f***ing deal.

[LFC]

Putin allegedly nixed a deal back in March that would have kept Ukraine out of NATO.

Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.

The Ukrainian-born envoy, Dmitry Kozak, told Putin that he believed the deal he had hammered out removed the need for Russia to pursue a large-scale occupation of Ukraine, according to these sources. Kozak's recommendation to Putin to adopt the deal is being reported by Reuters for the first time.

Why? At this point the reason should be obvious. It was always about wanting more territory under his thumb.

Putin had repeatedly asserted prior to the war that NATO and its military infrastructure were creeping closer to Russia's borders by accepting new members from eastern Europe, and that the alliance was now preparing to bring Ukraine into its orbit too. Putin publicly said that represented an existential threat to Russia, forcing him to react.

But, despite earlier backing the negotiations, Putin made it clear when presented with Kozak's deal that the concessions negotiated by his aide did not go far enough and that he had expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory, the sources said. The upshot: the deal was dropped.

The Kremlin, of course, denies it. So I guess that settles that. [/snark]

[LFC]

All this lost in two weeks. And in Kherson, not even up in Kharkiv.

Mykola Bielieskov
@mbielieskov

According to brigade general Dmytro Marchenko (mastermind of Mykolayiv defence in first month of big war) in last 2 weeks RU lost in Kherson region ~1,8K troops, 120 MBTs, 130 tube artillery pieces, 20 MLRS, 2 helicopters, 2 planes. Quite impressive attrition rate.