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[Bact PhD]

I wasn't entirely sure where to put this look back at what might be called "The First Conspiracy Theory of the Internet Age":

At the time, fears of domestic terrorism were high. The nation was still processing the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the 1995 Oklahoma City explosion and the trial of Ramzi Yousef for conspiracy to destroy American-bound airliners. Ten days after the crash, a bombing rocked the Atlanta Olympics.

NTSB officials quickly said the initial evidence surrounding the crash of Flight 800 did not point to an outside explosive device. Still, speculation stemming from eyewitness accounts spread through chat rooms on the burgeoning World Wide Web.

Shane Miller, a professor at Saint John’s University in Minnesota who researched the conspiracy theories surrounding the crash, said the Flight 800 conspirators used the web in novel ways.

“It was really the first conspiracy of the internet age,” Miller said. “It was the first to be picked up and widely circulated online.”

Michael Barkun, professor emeritus of political science at Syracuse University's Maxwell School, said internet forums and social media platforms have served as mass media outlets without gatekeepers. They allow unconventional ideas to quickly become mainstream.

“Now anyone with an idea, no matter how bizarre, has a way of potentially getting it in front of fairly large audiences,” he said. “That has eroded what was once a firm boundary between the fringe and the mainstream.”

[LFC]

This is the kind of news that makes Tucker Carlson touch himself.

Life expectancy for Black Americans fell further in 2020 than in any year since the mid-1930s, during the Great Depression. The shocking figure, confirmed Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, shows that Black life expectancy suffered a hit of nearly three years, falling to 71 years and 10 months. Life expectancy among Latino Americans also tumbled by nearly three years—down to 78 years and 10 months—while white life expectancy fell by 14 months, down to 77 years and 7 months. Overall, U.S. life expectancy suffered its biggest one-year decline since World War Two, according to the Associated Press. Health officials said the COVID-19 pandemic is to blame for the vast majority of the fall, but drug overdoses and increasing homicides also contributed. Mark Hayward, a University of Texas sociology professor who specializes in U.S. mortality, told AP that the sudden decline was “basically catastrophic.”

[goldenvalley]

An aerial look at the major lakes (Shasta, Oroville) in California's water transfer projects.  I don't think they looked this empty after the 1st two or three years of the last drought (pre 2017).   It's somewhat normal to see dry marinas in Folsom Lake, but usually not until August sometime.  It's not that large and is drained down to provide for irrigation.

[LFC]

Jul 22, 2021 23:57:40 GMT goldenvalley said:

An aerial look at the major lakes (Shasta, Oroville) in California's water transfer projects.  I don't think they looked this empty after the 1st two or three years of the last drought (pre 2017).   It's somewhat normal to see dry marinas in Folsom Lake, but usually not until August sometime.  It's not that large and is drained down to provide for irrigation.

Some crops are just going to have to go, like cotton. And people are going to have to pony up for desalination.

[pnwguy]

Jul 23, 2021 0:13:17 GMT LFC said:

Jul 22, 2021 23:57:40 GMT goldenvalley said:

An aerial look at the major lakes (Shasta, Oroville) in California's water transfer projects.  I don't think they looked this empty after the 1st two or three years of the last drought (pre 2017).   It's somewhat normal to see dry marinas in Folsom Lake, but usually not until August sometime.  It's not that large and is drained down to provide for irrigation.

Some crops are just going to have to go, like cotton. And people are going to have to pony up for desalination.

Cotton?  How about flooded rice fields?  And gallons of water per pound of almonds are something in the order of 1100/lb, as opposed to produce like salad crops, that are under 20/lb.

[LFC]

Jul 23, 2021 16:37:10 GMT pnwguy said:

Cotton?  How about flooded rice fields?  And gallons of water per pound of almonds are something in the order of 1100/lb, as opposed to produce like salad crops, that are under 20/lb.

I looked around and bumped into this which goes over crop water usage in California as well as profitability per unit of water. This was an eye opener. If I had been asked to guess I probably would have said 50%.

California agriculture uses an estimated 80% of the state’s developed water supply.

I'll remember this the next time I see farmers out there screaming for more during the drought. How much is enough? Apparently all and then some.

[pnwguy]

Jul 23, 2021 16:51:38 GMT LFC said:

I'll remember this the next time I see farmers out there screaming for more during the drought. How much is enough? Apparently all and then some.

It's a bit like the steel and auto industries, before foreign competition.  There are many ways to lower water usage in agriculture.  Ask the Israelis how they do micro-irrigation in the desert.  But when water is cheap and guaranteed to CA farmers, they have no financial incentive to change.  They just have to elect dimwits like Devin Nunes to fight for their privileges.  Most of the GOP knuckle draggers are from the central valley districts.

[goldenvalley]

Jul 23, 2021 16:51:38 GMT LFC said:

Jul 23, 2021 16:37:10 GMT pnwguy said:

Cotton?  How about flooded rice fields?  And gallons of water per pound of almonds are something in the order of 1100/lb, as opposed to produce like salad crops, that are under 20/lb.

I looked around and bumped into this which goes over crop water usage in California as well as profitability per unit of water. This was an eye opener. If I had been asked to guess I probably would have said 50%.

California agriculture uses an estimated 80% of the state’s developed water supply.

I'll remember this the next time I see farmers out there screaming for more during the drought. How much is enough? Apparently all and then some.

The rice fields are in places that are in flood plains anyway (yes we have flood plains in Northern CA).  My target is almond and pistachio growing in the truly dry parts of the huge Central Valley.  We don't need all those almonds for domestic use.  One wag says this is just a way to export California water to the rest of the world.  I concur.

[LFC]

Here's a look at a major problem facing the Texas White-tailed Deer breeding industry. I stayed at one of these ranches on a birding trip once. The owner explained in great detail on how it all worked. It was fascinating, especially the fact that a lot of the buyers aren't even hunters, they're wealthy people with large (as in tens of thousands of acres), fully fenced ranches and they just like seeing giant racked deer wandering the place.

Personally I thought a lot of the racks just looked freakish and faaaarrrrr from classic. I did a quick search and found a couple examples of bucks they're proud of and I thing are just awful.

[LFC]

I saw a good one on proof of the existence of god.

Believer:There is a god.
Atheist: Okay. Prove it.
Believer: No. You prove there isn't.
Atheist: Really? Is that how you think it works? Okay then. Well, actually I am god.
Believer:Prove it.
Atheist: No, no. You have to prove I'm not. That's how it works apparently. Your rules, dude. I'll wait.

[RichTBikkies]

Jul 24, 2021 13:54:21 GMT LFC said:

I saw a good one on proof of the existence of god.

Believer:There is a god.
Atheist: Okay. Prove it.
Believer: No. You prove there isn't.
Atheist: Really? Is that how you think it works? Okay then. Well, actually I am god.
Believer:Prove it.
Atheist: No, no. You have to prove I'm not. That's how it works apparently. Your rules, dude. I'll wait.

I first started questioning some of the stuff I was hearing in my Presbyterian church, in my teens, was when I realised that most of the "proofs" of the existence of God, and of some other stuff, were flawed by confirmation bias.

Before psychological research on confirmation bias, the phenomenon had been observed throughout history. Beginning with the Greek historian Thucydides (c. 460 BC – c. 395 BC), who wrote of misguided reason in The Peloponnesian War; "... for it is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not fancy". Italian poet Dante Alighieri (1265–1321) noted it in the Divine Comedy, in which St. Thomas Aquinas cautions Dante upon meeting in Paradise, "opinion—hasty—often can incline to the wrong side, and then affection for one's own opinion binds, confines the mind".  Ibn Khaldun noticed the same effect in his Muqaddimah:

Untruth naturally afflicts historical information. There are various reasons that make this unavoidable. One of them is partisanship for opinions and schools. [...] if the soul is infected with partisanship for a particular opinion or sect, it accepts without a moment's hesitation the information that is agreeable to it. Prejudice and partisanship obscure the critical faculty and preclude critical investigation. The result is that falsehoods are accepted and transmitted.

In the Novum Organum, English philosopher and scientist Francis Bacon (1561–1626)[47] noted that biased assessment of evidence drove "all superstitions, whether in astrology, dreams, omens, divine judgments or the like".[48] He wrote:[48]

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects or despises, or else by some distinction sets aside or rejects[.]

In the second volume of his The World as Will and Representation (1844), German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer observed that "An adopted hypothesis gives us lynx-eyes for everything that confirms it and makes us blind to everything that contradicts it."[49] In his essay (1897) "What Is Art?", Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy wrote:[50]

I know that most men—not only those considered clever, but even those who are very clever, and capable of understanding most difficult scientific, mathematical, or philosophic problems—can very seldom discern even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as to oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions they have formed, perhaps with much difficulty—conclusions of which they are proud, which they have taught to others, and on which they have built their lives.

The OED's first citation of the phrase "confirmation bias" is as recent as 1977. You have just seen that the concept was known in ancient times.

[Deleted]

Jul 24, 2021 13:54:21 GMT LFC said:

I saw a good one on proof of the existence of god.

Believer:There is a god.
Atheist: Okay. Prove it.
Believer: No. You prove there isn't.
Atheist: Really? Is that how you think it works? Okay then. Well, actually I am god.
Believer:Prove it.
Atheist: No, no. You have to prove I'm not. That's how it works apparently. Your rules, dude. I'll wait.

But you're not mentioned in some crusty old book or in a folklore. Make up a story. Make it sexy. Make it gory. Get some other gullible people to believe you first. Tell them they are the persecuted lot. Get them to become earnest and strident. Get them to wear some nice colorful team kits. Create some convoluted rituals. Get them to demand some special privileges. Don't forget special holidays. Then perhaps I'll believe you. 

Disproof: Universe can be explained, to the extent it can be, without taking recourse to the God hypothesis. Nothing can be explained with the God hypothesis that does not end in infinite recursion/self-reference. The "no need" model.

[LFC]

I have no problem with people who have beliefs and faith, as long as they're not forcing it on anybody or using it as an excuse to harm people. That's the essence of religion and I'm sure it's a comfort to a good many people. It's those whose faith is so weak that they are constantly looking for "proof" or those who abuse the word "belief" to equate things backed by scientific evidence with things backed by none.

[AnBr]

Jul 25, 2021 1:04:06 GMT LFC said:

I have no problem with people who have beliefs and faith, as long as they're not forcing it on anybody or using it as an excuse to harm people. That's the essence of religion and I'm sure it's a comfort to a good many people. It's those whose faith is so weak that they are constantly looking for "proof" or those who abuse the word "belief" to equate things backed by scientific evidence with things backed by none.

Attachments:

[LFC]

[goldenvalley]

This describes me perfectly:

[Deleted]

I have an additional state of mind, especially Saturday mid-morning that would appear as the third panel: There's evening and then there's Sunday morning - sure I can postpone work just a while longer.


(Monday to Friday is no longer the work week, hasn't been for a long time. Monday to Friday is just the portion of the work week when others can impose on one's calendar.)

[goldenvalley]

Was this last week a "Great Sign Everyone out of Subscribed Website Weekend?"  All morning I've been logging back into newspaper and magazine websites, Facebook, and others that I normally log into once and don't have to re log in for months on end.   And multiple times for the same site.  Has every site disremembered my laptop suddenly or is this a more universal happening?  Didn't happen with phone apps of the same sites.

[Bact PhD]

Jul 26, 2021 16:47:58 GMT goldenvalley said:

Was this last week a "Great Sign Everyone out of Subscribed Website Weekend?"  All morning I've been logging back into newspaper and magazine websites, Facebook, and others that I normally log into once and don't have to re log in for months on end.   And multiple times for the same site.  Has every site disremembered my laptop suddenly or is this a more universal happening?  Didn't happen with phone apps of the same sites.

Nothing here that struck me.
Did your laptop or browser undergo a major update? I’ve noticed when that happens I have to do two-factor authentication in sites that I normally just sign in straightaway.
Or did all your browser cookies get deleted?

[AnBr]

Sounds like you deleted all of your cookies. Did you use some kind of system cleaner that scrubbed your cookies too?

[goldenvalley]

There was a "security update" to my browser over a week ago, but the log outs didn't show up until yesterday. But there must be something about the update. It's the only change. I didn't clean the system at all.  Thanks for the info!

[andydp]

Wild and wonderful weekend:

Saturday was pretty quiet. Attended grandson's 10th (!!!!) birthday.  Sunday, we left early to get to Sylvan Beach, NY on the shore of Oneida Lake for a Corvette Car Show.  Drove through some major rain storms but it cleared up as we approached the venue.  Beautiful for the rest of the day.  About 500 Corvettes attended.  We were lucky enough to win a bourbon basket containing:

750ml bottle of Isaac Bowman (92 proof) Finish aged in Port wine barrels. Interesting taste with a slight hint of Port

375ml bottle of Knob Creek (100 proof)

375ml bottle of Elijah Craig (94 proof)

375ml bottle of Basil Hayden's  (80 proof) 

I began study of the Isaac Bowman last evening.  This may take a while, "not that there's anything wrong with that".

On Monday morning we went to a Corvette dealer and got our names on the list for a new C8 ZO6.  (Artist's rendering below)

[Bact PhD]

In stark contrast to andydp’s uplifting preceding post, this is damn depressing:

www.cbsnews.com/news/online-education-cheating-business/?ftag=CNM-00-10aac3a#app

Nairobi — The growth of online college degrees has created more opportunities for American students to outsource their schoolwork, resulting in a booming billion-dollar cheating industry centered in the East African country of Kenya.

[snip]

William pays U.S. websites for accounts to connect with American students and then subcontracts the cheating work out to other Kenyan writers. He makes over $2,000 a month but says he's ashamed of working in the "essays-for-hire" industry.

"It's not really something you should be proud about, telling people that you help others cheat," he said.

How does it work?

Reputable U.S. websites with names like "Essay JedII" offer legitimate services like academic assistance, tutoring or research. Some American students, however, use these sites to connect with writers in Kenya who they hire to do their schoolwork for them, from one-off essays to completing entire college degrees.

There’s more, but you get the idea.

Like I said, depressing.

[andydp]

August 2:

Errands done, Bourbon varietals assembled for Bourbon prize basket: done.  (Including a Zinfandel aged in Bourbon Barrels)

Come home after stop at Farmer's Market, town is doing water main work so water pressure is low.  Citizens asked to conserve water.  My solution:  Beer.  In particular, Paradox Brewing's "Get Off My Lawn" American ale and a candidate to be named later.

Just doing my civic duty.

[andydp]

In an effort to show I have both erudition and dullness I present for your edification an essay on unusual units of measurement. See you in a jiffy !!

www.mentalfloss.com/longform/618408/unusual-units-measurement?utm_source=Facebook&ut