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Post by LFC on Jun 29, 2021 18:34:01 GMT
True, they are not going to call the loan, but it does potentially give them an opening to renegotiate the terms and squeeze a little. I guess it also depends upon whether or not a loan is secured with a property and which property it is. If the golf course in Bedford is collateral then right now, and probably for the foreseeable future, it would be an absolute cherry of an acquisition. Subdividing it for homes would be worth a fortune. I bet Mar-a-Lago and Doral are worth acquiring and subdividing as well. Buildings like Trump Tower? Probably not so much. |
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Post by Bact PhD on Jun 29, 2021 18:59:51 GMT
True, they are not going to call the loan, but it does potentially give them an opening to renegotiate the terms and squeeze a little. I guess it also depends upon whether or not a loan is secured with a property and which property it is. If the golf course in Bedford is collateral then right now, and probably for the foreseeable future, it would be an absolute cherry of an acquisition. Subdividing it for homes would be worth a fortune. I bet Mar-a-Lago and Doral are worth acquiring and subdividing as well.
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RichTBikkies
Grad Student
Trainee Basil Fawlty. Practising Victor Meldrew.
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Post by RichTBikkies on Jun 29, 2021 20:14:30 GMT
That may be true but then again... True, they are not going to call the loan, but it does potentially give them an opening to renegotiate the terms and squeeze a little. Getty? That's so long ago it needs index-linking to deal with inflation. "If you owe the bank ten million you've got a problem. If you owe the bank ten billion the bank's got a problem". |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2021 14:28:27 GMT
After all the fanfare and multiyear fight in the courts to obtain Trump Org.'s tax documents (and Trump's personal ones too), the relatively minor indictments would be a significant climbdown. No insurance fraud, no bank fraud, just charges on state tax avoidance. Trump goes scott-free once again. MSNBC is now going to hang their hat on the pale promise of continuing investigations from the Manhattan DA or probably hype up the NY State AG's investigation. And, so on and on it goes.
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Post by Traveler on Jun 30, 2021 23:15:31 GMT
Seems like pretty pale pablum at first blusk. But I wouldn't fold my tent yet. This is all a prelude to breaking Wesselbach. All the real charges have long been teed up, just needs good corroboration.
Be patient, my pretty.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2021 0:29:15 GMT
Seems like pretty pale pablum at first blusk. But I wouldn't fold my tent yet. This is all a prelude to breaking Wesselbach. All the real charges have long been teed up, just needs good corroboration. Be patient, my pretty. The charges against Weissel-weasel are also meager. They don't carry hefty penalties. It's unlikely he would be sentenced to prison when the sentencing formula works out its magic. According to Daniel Goldman (counsel for the House during the impeachment trial #1) the likely penalties aren't painful enough for Weissel to flip. We will see. |
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Post by indy on Jul 1, 2021 11:05:16 GMT
We haven't seen the specific charges yet, so we don't know exactly how serious they are. I'm a bit more interested in the non criminal aspects to the charges against the Trump Org. Banks, in general, don't do business with indicted companies. They, of course, happily handle the money of criminals so long as they stay off law enforcement radar, so the ethical dilemma isn't really a factor but they definitely don't like the scrutiny criminal prosecutions bring.
The profitability of real estate rests almost entirely on the ability to leverage. The more trouble Trump has in obtaining the leverage, the more desperate he will become. The more desperate he is, the more likely he is to venture into even more criminal behavior. Eventually it will collapse.
The charges do have the potential to bring down the Trump Org even if the criminal penalties here aren't that severe.
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Post by LFC on Jul 1, 2021 15:37:47 GMT
The profitability of real estate rests almost entirely on the ability to leverage. The more trouble Trump has in obtaining the leverage, the more desperate he will become. The more desperate he is, the more likely he is to venture into even more criminal behavior. Eventually it will collapse.
He can always get money from Putin. Oh, wait. He no longer has much political value to Putin and his business dealings will be under a microscope so not a great place to launder money. Maybe his Saudi friends will continue to buy condos they never use. |
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pnwguy
Associate Professor
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Post by pnwguy on Jul 1, 2021 16:02:38 GMT
The profitability of real estate rests almost entirely on the ability to leverage. The more trouble Trump has in obtaining the leverage, the more desperate he will become. The more desperate he is, the more likely he is to venture into even more criminal behavior. Eventually it will collapse.
He can always get money from Putin. Oh, wait. He no longer has much political value to Putin and his business dealings will be under a microscope so not a great place to launder money. Maybe his Saudi friends will continue to buy condos they never use. Oh, he'll continue to be VERY useful to Putin, who has always been buying chaos and political incompetence. Dumpster continues to purge the GOP of any competence, aside from power grabbing. The Trump Organization is no longer connected to any appreciable Real Goods. It's a MAGAt Marketing organization that works to vacuum Internet dollars from rubes, corrupt businesses, and PACs. It can succeed indefinitely, even in the unlikely event its founder ever is convicted of a crime. He would just become a Jesus-like martyr to his faithful. Pass the collection plate. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2021 16:18:59 GMT
The charges do have the potential to bring down the Trump Org even if the criminal penalties here aren't that severe.
Out of court settlement. (1) Penalties that bite and itch a little (2) A few execs (and probably board members - if they've a governing board) relieved of their positions (3) No admission of wrong doing. In the court of public opinion - Selling loose cigs is so much a worse offense. Remember not too many corporations are indicted for tax avoidance. Let alone convicted. [Note: I can speculate to my heart's content till the indictments are unsealed at 2pm ET.] |
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jackd
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Post by jackd on Jul 1, 2021 17:57:49 GMT
Tax law is how they got Capone back in the day.
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Post by LFC on Jul 1, 2021 19:08:45 GMT
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Post by Traveler on Jul 1, 2021 19:18:43 GMT
Enough to make him flip? I doubt it.
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Post by indy on Jul 1, 2021 20:13:28 GMT
Not much to hang a hat on. Grand larceny in the second degree is like a class C felony. First time offender, white collar crime. At least it's not federal, so he will end up in a 'real' jail probably.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2021 20:50:19 GMT
After all these years of investigations and court cases costing millions of dollars they got his underling avoiding less than a million dollar worth of taxes. Don't they know how to do ROI calculations in the prosecutorial profession?
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Post by andydp on Jul 1, 2021 21:09:05 GMT
After all these years of investigations and court cases costing millions of dollars they got his underling avoiding less than a million dollar worth of taxes. Don't they know how to do ROI calculations in the prosecutorial profession? The repercussions from a criminal charge against an organization can kill it really fast: Criminal charges can result in loss of liquor licenses on Trump properties. Banks don't like to lend to criminally charged people/organizations. Making the highly leveraged Trump Organization ripe for plucking by lenders. Plenty of ways to destroy Individual #1. |
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Post by LFC on Jul 1, 2021 21:42:05 GMT
After all these years of investigations and court cases costing millions of dollars they got his underling avoiding less than a million dollar worth of taxes. Don't they know how to do ROI calculations in the prosecutorial profession? What I don't understand is where are the bank fraud charges? We saw ample stories on how the Trump Organization submitted different property valuations and incomes for tax purposes vs. loans. Yes, the tax fraud charges stemming from undervaluation are obviously one side of that coin but what about the loan fraud charges from overvaluation? IIRC they did both though perhaps not. |
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pg
Grad Student
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Post by pg on Jul 1, 2021 21:53:12 GMT
After all these years of investigations and court cases costing millions of dollars they got his underling avoiding less than a million dollar worth of taxes. Don't they know how to do ROI calculations in the prosecutorial profession? What I don't understand is where are the bank fraud charges? We saw ample stories on how the Trump Organization submitted different property valuations and incomes for tax purposes vs. loans. Yes, the tax fraud charges stemming from undervaluation are obviously one side of that coin but what about the loan fraud charges from overvaluation? IIRC they did both though perhaps not. I've wondered that, as well. I wonder how many people- high up, all the way down- are complicit. Maybe this is one of those times that, rather than mess with the big fish (blown up story) it would be better to squeeze the small fish. IDK... |
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Post by indy on Jul 2, 2021 0:39:53 GMT
I think the bank fraud charges are going to be an uphill climb without inside testimony from somebody confirming that the misstatements were done knowingly. These charges, on the other hand, look pretty easy to prove given the description of the documentation. Inside records clearly show it was considered compensation. That compensation was not reported externally. At least from the description of the evidence I've read, it looks like a pretty solid case.
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Post by indy on Jul 2, 2021 11:06:21 GMT
What is really confusing to me is why somebody who is as rich as Trump claims to be would agree to these Micky Mouse schemes? Forbes claims he is worth 2.5 billion but he is willing to become part of tax scheme that is about 1 million / 15 years = 66K a year? That's just really, really insane.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Post by andydp on Jul 2, 2021 11:46:26 GMT
What is really confusing to me is why somebody who is as rich as Trump claims to be would agree to these Micky Mouse schemes? Forbes claims he is worth 2.5 billion but he is willing to become part of tax scheme that is about 1 million / 15 years = 66K a year? That's just really, really insane. Its the thrill of "sticking it" to Uncle Sam and the rest of the "great unwashed" |
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Post by goldenvalley on Jul 2, 2021 14:46:09 GMT
What is really confusing to me is why somebody who is as rich as Trump claims to be would agree to these Micky Mouse schemes? Forbes claims he is worth 2.5 billion but he is willing to become part of tax scheme that is about 1 million / 15 years = 66K a year? That's just really, really insane. Its the thrill of "sticking it" to Uncle Sam and the rest of the "great unwashed" Chiseling...the same reason he stiffed contractors. Because he could. I suspect his loyalists will say all businessmen do that and get away with it but poor Trump is picked on by the Deep State. I say, when you elevate your profile as he always did, someone in law enforcement is going to start paying attention. |
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jackd
Assistant Professor
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Post by jackd on Jul 2, 2021 14:57:58 GMT
It's also not true that all businessmen do it. Given the publicity Trump's behavior has gotten, it may be that more businessmen/women behave badly than otherwise would.
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Post by LFC on Jul 2, 2021 15:11:59 GMT
What is really confusing to me is why somebody who is as rich as Trump claims to be would agree to these Micky Mouse schemes? Forbes claims he is worth 2.5 billion but he is willing to become part of tax scheme that is about 1 million / 15 years = 66K a year? That's just really, really insane. But we know he's insane. This is a guy who would weasel out of $20 debt if he could. It's all about entitlement. Every little bit he can steal makes him feel better about himself. |
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Post by Traveler on Jul 2, 2021 15:36:48 GMT
I think the bank fraud charges are going to be an uphill climb without inside testimony from somebody confirming that the misstatements were done knowingly. These charges, on the other hand, look pretty easy to prove given the description of the documentation. Inside records clearly show it was considered compensation. That compensation was not reported externally. At least from the description of the evidence I've read, it looks like a pretty solid case. From what I read yesterday, they have a bunch more charges teed up. This is all about flipping Wesselberg, nothing more. Be interesting to see if he caves. Realize that he will be on the hook on the bank fraud charges as well. I think there are going to be a very interesting conversations over the next few weeks. |
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