Russia

[LFC]

Putin is chest thumping and waving his dick nukes around as his non-military losses mount. He's losing it over Sweden and Finland appearing very much interested in joining NATO. For most it would be a pretty obvious that it's not a great move trying to threaten two nations into not joining an alliance that your threats already scared them towards. So much for carrots and sticks. All Putin has is sticks, sort of a twist on "when the only tool you have is a hammer then every problem is viewed as a nail."

Russia has threatened to build up nuclear forces in the Baltic Sea region if Sweden and Finland join NATO. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, published a lengthy Telegram post on Thursday outlining the Kremlin’s response. Promising that Moscow would respond “without emotion, with a cool head,” he said the additional two countries joining NATO would mean Moscow “officially has more opponents.” Russia will be forced to “seriously strengthen the grouping of ground forces and air defense, and deploy significant naval forces in the waters of the Gulf of Finland,” he said. “There can be no more talk of any nuclear-free status for the Baltic, the balance must be restored,” Medvedev wrote. “Until today, Russia has not taken such measures and was not going to.” In response to the veiled threat, Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas pointed out that it was “quite strange” Russia was threatening a nuclear buildup when it already has nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, on the Baltic Sea.

[LFC]

This article makes two major points. First, Putin manages everything in a "stovepipe" so assumptions and messaging from those supposedly in lines of command who are trying to figure out what is going on are making a lot of assumptions. Second, this is the first major war Putin has waged with real-time social media documenting everything. His propaganda machine can't remotely keep up and so in terms of messaging Russia is always on its heels.

But this isn’t a function of a war dragging on and messaging getting lost in the fog. The list of mishaps and communications not going according to plan goes back months. In mid-March, Kadyrov claimed he and Chechen forces were near Kyiv—a claim Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov flat-out denied. And during a now notorious meeting with Russia’s Presidential Security Council in February, Putin lashed out at the chief of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, when Naryshkin spoke about Russia’s policy towards eastern Ukraine in a way that apparently irked Putin. Naryshkin hesitated and stammered his way through his words, molding them to Putin’s will as they went—and as Putin continually interrupted him.

The trouble might be self-inflicted, at least in part. Putin has isolated himself from his advisers while waging a war that is, unlike any war in Europe before, being documented in real time on social media. All eyes are on Putin and his cronies’ every move. And for Putin’s Russia, which isn’t built for transparency or message coordination and rollout, the fumbles are glaringly obvious.

“The Russians don’t practice this. It’s not an open society, they don’t talk to the press—they don’t even attempt to be transparent. Undoubtedly because it’s such a stovepiped system and they don’t have much experience or use in talking to the press it’s inevitable they’d be working at cross-purposes,” Douglas London, a former CIA chief of station, told The Daily Beast. “Putin is very much a stovepiped decision-maker in terms of how he delegates power and authority.”

Examining what Putin wants to do next in the war is like a game of Russian roulette—and many, even in Putin’s inner circle, are just throwing out ideas they think might stick, or that might align with what Putin wants, even if they have no clue what he’s thinking, according to Anton Barbashin, a Russian political analyst.

This part sounds a lot like Trump who also demands loyalty and obsequiousness above reality and truth.

An increasingly isolated and rage-filled Putin has found himself surrounded by advisers too scared to tell him things were not going well on the battlefield, though, leading him to have an inaccurate picture of the war, which may also contribute to bad messaging, according to top Biden administration officials.

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions, because his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth,” White House Communications Director Kate Bedingfield told reporters in a briefing last month.

Putin has cordoned himself off so much in recent months that it’s not clear anyone knows what Moscow’s next move will be.

[LFC]

Putin's war and the West's reactions to it continue to crush Russia's economy. I wonder if he even knows how bad it is in the streets since he sequesters himself away from that and has cut free advisers who might tell him. If he knew would he even care?

Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 17.49% as of April 8, its highest since February 2002 and up from 16.70% a week earlier, the economy ministry said on Wednesday, as the volatile rouble sent prices soaring amid unprecedented Western sanctions.

Prices on nearly everything from vegetables and sugar to clothes and smartphones have risen sharply in recent weeks after Russia on Feb. 24 began what it calls "a special military operation" in Ukraine.

The central bank warned on Wednesday that consumer inflation in Russia will keep on accelerating in annual terms due to base effects, saying that rouble volatility will lead to upside inflationary pressure.

[AnBr]

[andydp]

Apr 15, 2022 16:17:35 GMT LFC said:

Putin's war and the West's reactions to it continue to crush Russia's economy. I wonder if he even knows how bad it is in the streets since he sequesters himself away from that and has cut free advisers who might tell him. If he knew would he even care?

Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 17.49% as of April 8, its highest since February 2002 and up from 16.70% a week earlier, the economy ministry said on Wednesday, as the volatile rouble sent prices soaring amid unprecedented Western sanctions.

Prices on nearly everything from vegetables and sugar to clothes and smartphones have risen sharply in recent weeks after Russia on Feb. 24 began what it calls "a special military operation" in Ukraine.

The central bank warned on Wednesday that consumer inflation in Russia will keep on accelerating in annual terms due to base effects, saying that rouble volatility will lead to upside inflationary pressure.

Vlad has a problem whether he likes it or not...

Russia's debt default will be one of the hardest in history to resolve and could see the US seize the central bank's assets, economist says

The impending Russian debt default is likely to be one of the most difficult in history to resolve, Oxford Economics has said.

It could even result in the US seizing the Russian central bank's frozen assets, the consultancy's Tatiana Orlova said.

Russia still has a grace period in which to make dollar payments on its foreign bonds, but analysts say a default is likely.

The impending Russian debt default is likely to be one of the most difficult in history to resolve, and could even lead the US to permanently seize assets from the country's central bank, according to a report from the consultancy Oxford Economics.

Russia is facing its first default on its foreign-currency debt since the aftermath of the Bolshevik revolution in 1918.

news.yahoo.com/russias-debt-default-one-hardest-080000031.html

Question for the economists here:  How would that affect Pres Trump's debt to the Russians (and Deutche Bank) ?

[AnBr]

Apr 16, 2022 20:38:44 GMT andydp said:

How would that affect Pres Trump's debt to the Russians (and Deutche Bank) ?

Trump no longer being indebted to Putin, but to American banks? Hmm...

[LFC]

It's not just American "Christian" leaders who are driving people away from their religions. It's amazing how mass murder of innocent civilians on a massive scale can open up some, but of course not all, people's eyes.

The Russian Orthodox Church and its leader have played a huge role in garnering public support for Putin’s war in Ukraine, where about 10 million Orthodox believers still pray in Moscow Patriarchate-affiliated churches. Ukrainian Orthodox Christians whose lives have been upended by the war are left to grapple with the fact that the leader has all but condoned the murder of thousands of innocent civilians.

Now, the cracks are starting to show: More than 400 Ukrainian priests have spoken out against Patriarch Kirill for his support of the war, demanding he be put on trial by the Council of Eastern Patriarchs. Adding to that, scores of Orthodox parishes in Ukraine that have long been loyal to the Moscow Patriarchate have begun to withdraw from the UOC-MP, changing their jurisdictional affiliations to join the independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church instead.

“Kirill has committed a crime: he blessed murders of innocent people,” Metropolitan Oleksandr, one of the most senior clerics of the independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Kyiv, told The Daily Beast. He was on his way to a parish that recently declared its independence from the UOC-MP.

“I understand their decision, the criminal Russian army killed thousands of innocent women, children, men in Ukrainian, my own relatives are in the occupied Mariupol, I don’t know if my godfather is alive. Last I heard he and his family were making food on fire outside their ruined house.” His voice cracked when he spoke about his family members.

One Ukrainian priest and his wife, who belonged to a church in the separatist region of Luhansk that follows the Moscow Patriarchate, told The Daily Beast that the church’s guidelines were so jarring that they made the decision to leave it altogether.

“We were allowed to pray for Ukraine for eight years, while Luhansk was a breakaway republic but in February, when the war began, we were told we could not pray for Ukraine any longer, which was just against our beliefs,” the priest’s wife told The Daily Beast while on a bus to Lviv. “The Russian Orthodox Church made us make the decision to run away with our three children. There are more and more priests who disagree with the Moscow Orthodox Church in Ukraine.”

It makes you wonder if much of Christianity around the world is going to take the same path as the American evangelicalism and the Republican Party, attracting only the immoral dregs who worship power rather than Jesus. Looking at the history of it going back to Constantine it wouldn't be a departure. Actually it would be interesting to see how many years since it was wielded as a political force used to persecute the "non-faithful." My guess is a pretty high percentage of the time.

[LFC]

Beau spoke to some people he relies on for economic info and interpretations about the sanctions and the economy in Russia. The upshot is that there isn't a lot of agreement because the situation in Russia doesn't really have precedence but it does sound like there's a bit of agreement that there's been quite a bit of damage done already and it's being covered up by creative bookkeeping, something that can't last forever. The big disagreement is around what happens when Russia's hard debt default date comes. It's an interesting watch.

[LFC]

This series of tweets explains the Russian cultural elites' (not just Putin) attitude towards Ukraine. It discusses their poets, some of the most highly regarded artists in Russian culture. Ukraine is apparently not real, Ukrainians are really Russians or inferior, it's run by Nazis, and on and on. And this war didn't arise over the past few month, it's been on it's way for years.

You may want to stop this war ASAP, but it's not up to you to decide. It's up to Russia which invaded Ukraine for a reason. And this reason remains irrespective of Putin or Zelensky, CSTO or NATO, Siloviki or Mail. It's not a war of regimes. It's a war of memes

The motivation behind Z-war is not "security", "alliances" or even political affiliation. It's the need to extinguish wrong cultural memes and impose correct ones. That's why Z-war has such a wide popular support and why Russians so easily agreed for a total war against Ukraine

Arrogant it may sound, I think that in order to understand cultural context, you need to consume content in a language of the country. Those analysts who consume content in Russian typically view Z-war as inevitable. They saw it coming. But those who don't, are usually surprised

Z-war happened because Russia never accepted existence of Ukraine in the first place. And by "Russia" I mean not only the state, but also the people, especially the cultural elites. It was the so much glorified cultural elite that prepared this war rather than ignorant masses

They argued or implied that Ukraine is a fake nation with fake/inferior culture and history. In other words, the real problem is that Ukrainians stick to inferior memes. Worst of all, they could have upgraded and accepted superior, Russian memes, but they refuse to

Russian invasion of Ukraine can be understood only in cultural context. Kremlin didn't plan for a war, it planned to "liberate" Ukraine, save it by imposing the correct memes. But it turned out that Ukrainians didn't want to be saved. That's how Special Operation turned into war

Initial Kremlin's assumption was that Ukraine isn't irredeemable. It's a country of somewhat inferior Russians controlled by the "Nazis" who brainwashed the rest into submission. But what Ukrainians secretly want is to drop the farce of "Ukraine" and become normal (=Russian)

The "reasoning" is eerily reminiscent of the angry white males rising up here in America. Whites and white culture are superior and those who don't accept this are Nazis libruls bent on the destruction of the nation.

[goldenvalley]

Apr 19, 2022 18:46:35 GMT LFC said:

This series of tweets explains the Russian cultural elites' (not just Putin) attitude towards Ukraine. It discusses their poets, some of the most highly regarded artists in Russian culture. Ukraine is apparently not real, Ukrainians are really Russians or inferior, it's run by Nazis, and on and on. And this war didn't arise over the past few month, it's been on it's way for years.

You may want to stop this war ASAP, but it's not up to you to decide. It's up to Russia which invaded Ukraine for a reason. And this reason remains irrespective of Putin or Zelensky, CSTO or NATO, Siloviki or Mail. It's not a war of regimes. It's a war of memes

The motivation behind Z-war is not "security", "alliances" or even political affiliation. It's the need to extinguish wrong cultural memes and impose correct ones. That's why Z-war has such a wide popular support and why Russians so easily agreed for a total war against Ukraine

Arrogant it may sound, I think that in order to understand cultural context, you need to consume content in a language of the country. Those analysts who consume content in Russian typically view Z-war as inevitable. They saw it coming. But those who don't, are usually surprised

Z-war happened because Russia never accepted existence of Ukraine in the first place. And by "Russia" I mean not only the state, but also the people, especially the cultural elites. It was the so much glorified cultural elite that prepared this war rather than ignorant masses

They argued or implied that Ukraine is a fake nation with fake/inferior culture and history. In other words, the real problem is that Ukrainians stick to inferior memes. Worst of all, they could have upgraded and accepted superior, Russian memes, but they refuse to

Russian invasion of Ukraine can be understood only in cultural context. Kremlin didn't plan for a war, it planned to "liberate" Ukraine, save it by imposing the correct memes. But it turned out that Ukrainians didn't want to be saved. That's how Special Operation turned into war

Initial Kremlin's assumption was that Ukraine isn't irredeemable. It's a country of somewhat inferior Russians controlled by the "Nazis" who brainwashed the rest into submission. But what Ukrainians secretly want is to drop the farce of "Ukraine" and become normal (=Russian)

The "reasoning" is eerily reminiscent of the angry white males rising up here in America. Whites and white culture are superior and those who don't accept this are Nazis libruls bent on the destruction of the nation.

Not surprising...true Russians superior, glorious past, corrupted by evil inferior people.  Just change the national identity...German, American, Japanese... 

[LFC]

I'll go out on a stout limb and assume the West's answer will effectively be, "f*** you."

The head of the Russian parliament wants compensation from Europe because of Western sanctions prompted by Russia's war on Ukraine.

Vyacheslav Volodin said the sanctions against Russia were illegal.

"We will come back to the issue and calculate the damage you have caused to our economy. You will have to pay for it in any case," he threatened on his Telegram channel on Wednesday. He made his demands in connection with Moscow's demand to switch gas payments to the Russian national currency, the rouble.

Volodin criticized European countries as unreliable partners. "You are constantly robbing gas supplies and thus in effect stealing money from our budget and thus from our citizens," he accused the West. The Duma chief said that the Europeans' search for new suppliers was in any case throwing long-standing cooperation in the energy sector out of kilter.

Russia was ready to redirect its energy supplies and had already adapted to the new situation with the sanctions, he said. "But whether your states, which are used to living carelessly at Russia's expense, are ready, only time will tell," Volodin wrote.

The 58-year-old is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's confidants and is considered by critics of the Kremlin to be one of the most corrupt figures in Russia's power apparatus.

[LFC]

Russia is scaring off one of their biggest customers. They may be doing more to drive renewables forward than they realized when they decided to take Ukraine. I wonder if Saudi Arabia will continue to do the same to aid their investment in Jared and the Trumps.

Germany will stop importing oil from Russia by the end of the year, said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock after a meeting with her Baltic counterparts on Wednesday.

"I therefore say here clearly and unequivocally yes, Germany is also completely phasing out Russian energy imports," said Baerbock.

"We will halve oil by the summer and will be at 0 by the end of the year, and then gas will follow, in a joint European roadmap, because our joint exit, the complete exit of the European Union, is our common strength."

[AnBr]

Four separate instances of Kremlin-connected, extremely wealthy Russians with ties to the oil industry who have died by suicide since Russia's war in Ukraine began.

[goldenvalley]

Interesting interview in New Yorker with a retired Army colonel and former U.S. special envoy for Syria, who is now a fellow at New America, a think tank in Washington, D.C.  This guy identifies all sorts of military shortcomings.  Sadly, they aren't severe enough to prevent massive damage to Ukraine.

[andydp]

Like Alice said: Curiouser and curiouser.

2 Russian oligarchs and their families found dead: Details here


In a shocking development, two Russian oligarchs—Vladislav Avayev and Sergei Protosenya—and their families were found dead in Russia and Spain, respectively, within a span of 24 hours last week. The police are investigating whether these were a case of murder or murder-suicide. The close timing of their deaths raised several questions; cops are probing if Avayev and Protosenya were in contact before their demise.

MORE:

Top executives of Russian energy giant Gazprom—Leonid Shulman and Alexander Tyulyakov—were found dead under mysterious circumstances in January and on February 25, respectively.

On February 28, millionaire Mikhail Watford, who built his fortune in oil and gas, was found dead in his residence in Surrey, England.

On March 24, billionaire Vasily Melnikov—associated with medical firm MedStom—and his family were found dead in Nizhny Novgorod.

www.newsbytesapp.com/news/world/2-russian-oligarchs-their-families-found-dead/story

[AnBr]

Apr 25, 2022 10:59:19 GMT andydp said:

Like Alice said: Curiouser and curiouser.

2 Russian oligarchs and their families found dead: Details here


In a shocking development, two Russian oligarchs—Vladislav Avayev and Sergei Protosenya—and their families were found dead in Russia and Spain, respectively, within a span of 24 hours last week. The police are investigating whether these were a case of murder or murder-suicide. The close timing of their deaths raised several questions; cops are probing if Avayev and Protosenya were in contact before their demise.

MORE:

Top executives of Russian energy giant Gazprom—Leonid Shulman and Alexander Tyulyakov—were found dead under mysterious circumstances in January and on February 25, respectively.

On February 28, millionaire Mikhail Watford, who built his fortune in oil and gas, was found dead in his residence in Surrey, England.

On March 24, billionaire Vasily Melnikov—associated with medical firm MedStom—and his family were found dead in Nizhny Novgorod.

www.newsbytesapp.com/news/world/2-russian-oligarchs-their-families-found-dead/story

See my link above.

[LFC]

Oligarchs "committing suicide" and others dying suddenly? I guess Putin needs their wealth to fund the war effort and they likely wouldn't be ready to sign over billions of dollars out of patriotism. I suspect that the oligarchs who have supported him and are still alive are doing some serious recalculation of their own personal risk.

[LFC]

Well that ups the ante.

Lloyd Austin III, the secretary of defense, has said that a key U.S. goal in supporting Ukraine is “to see Russia weakened to the degree it can not do the kind of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” Austin, speaking bluntly Monday after a tour of Kyiv on Sunday, said Russia had “already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, quite frankly, and we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability.” Austin was accompanied by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on his trip, which was shrouded in secrecy until President Volodymyr Zelensky blurted out the secret at a Saturday afternoon news conference. They are the highest-level American officials to go to Ukraine since the invasion began, and they are believed to have discussed a ramping up of U.S. military aid to Ukraine. “The first step in winning is believing that you can win,” Austin told reporters. “They believe that we can win, we believe that they can win if they have the right equipment, the right support. We’re going to do everything we can—continue to do everything we can to ensure that gets to them.”

Putin is really racking up the "wins" at every level.

[LFC]

Rebels in the Transnistria region of Moldova (yeah, I had to look it up) have apparently now made several attacks on Russian troops. They see Putin's weakness and are taking advantage. I have no idea what kind of forces they have but the last thing Russia wants is to have to send support to another front.

Authorities in the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova reported an attack on a military unit Tuesday, hours after a pair of antennas broadcasting Russian radio were blown up, the latest violence reported in the Moscow-backed enclave in recent days.

Moldova’s President Maia Sandu called a meeting of the Supreme Defense Council in Chisinau Tuesday to discuss the incidents. Self-declared Transnistria also called a meeting of its Security Council, Russia’s Tass news service reported.

The enclave’s president said three attacks had been reported in recent days: blasts that destroyed the radio towers, another unspecified episode at a military unit and Monday’s strike in which unknown attackers fired several rounds from a grenade launcher at the state security headquarters in Transnistria’s capital, Tiraspol.

There were no injuries reported in any of the attacks. The Moldovan government said in a statement Monday that those explosions were aimed at “creating pretexts for straining the security situation” in the enclave bordering Ukraine, and called for calm.

Leonid Kalashnikov, a senior Russian legislator, said the violence was “a provocation aimed at drawing Russia deeper into military action in the region,” the Interfax news service reported.

As Moscow has gathered its troops for a new offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, it has sought to maintain threats in other parts of the country to prevent Kyiv from concentrating its defending forces in the area.

Russia has kept about 1,500 troops in Transnistria since a brief war there in the early 1990s. Last week, a Russian general suggested that Moscow may continue its military advance across southern Ukraine to reach Transnistria, though no other officials have publicly endorsed that goal.

With Russia's military performance so far and the flood of arms coming to Ukraine I don't see them holding 400+ miles of coastline to reach Transnistria.

[LFC]

Russia is sabre rattling about nukes, WW III, and may be opening up a new front in Moldova. I guess this is what it sounds like when you're failing to meet your objectives.

Russia’s foreign minister has warned Western powers not to underestimate the “real” risk of nuclear conflict if they continue to funnel weapons to Ukraine in what he says is an undeclared proxy war.

Within hours of his remarks, explosions were heard inside the sovereign borders of Moldova. Ukrainian officials believe Russia is launching “false flag” operations in the pro-Russian rebel-controlled enclave of Transnistria in order to justify widening their imperial assault into a second nation.

The warning from Sergei Lavrov, in a state TV interview late on Monday night, represents a dramatic rhetorical escalation from the Kremlin in the face of an increasingly assertive international response to the Ukraine crisis.

His comments drew a sharp reply from Lavrov's counterpart in Kyiv, Dmytro Kuleba, who said Russia had lost its “last hope to to scare the world off supporting Ukraine... This only means Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine.”

Lavrov, the stony-faced veteran of Russian diplomacy, was asked in the interview about the risks of the Ukraine crisis spiralling into nuclear conflict as so nearly happened with the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

“The risks now are considerable,” he said. “I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it,” Lavrov said.

“NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war.”

I don't think anybody saw this much support coming for Ukraine, especially Putin, but he's now raised a lot of fears and security concerns. I guess everybody just wants to shut this shit down in Ukraine and keep it from cropping up closer to them in another 5-20 years.

On Tuesday, Austin was scheduled to host a meeting of 40 allied defence ministers at the Ramstein air base in Germany to coordinate the international response to the Russian aggression and guarantee a steady supply of heavy weaponry, air defense systems, and ammunition to the Ukrainian army. In a significant move, Germany, which has so far refused to supply heavy weaponry to Kyiv, is expected to confirm that it will send 50 anti-aircraft tanks.

Russia really has a serious mess on their hands and no good options other than the obvious one which Putin will never agree to. What a cluster-f***.

[goldenvalley]

If Putin becomes desperate will he unleash the nukes?  Given the reports of poor maintenance on equipment who knows if he can actually launch anything. 

[jackd]

Probably not a good idea to assume that he can't. It may just be sword rattling but there's no denying that it's a sword.

[pnwguy]

Apr 26, 2022 15:18:30 GMT goldenvalley said:

If Putin becomes desperate will he unleash the nukes?  Given the reports of poor maintenance on equipment who knows if he can actually launch anything. 

There have been reports of Putin having an oncologist in his midst.  If you want to go out in a blaze of glory, as the most significant human in history, what better way than ENDING human history.

[LFC]

Apr 26, 2022 16:21:02 GMT pnwguy said:

There have been reports of Putin having an oncologist in his midst.  If you want to go out in a blaze of glory, as the most significant human in history, what better way than ENDING human history.

So "If I can't stick around then nobody can?" Sounds like the ancient Egyptian pharaohs though they limited themselves to some finite number of animals, slaves, and maybe a few family members.

[pnwguy]

Apr 26, 2022 16:32:09 GMT LFC said:

Apr 26, 2022 16:21:02 GMT pnwguy said:

There have been reports of Putin having an oncologist in his midst.  If you want to go out in a blaze of glory, as the most significant human in history, what better way than ENDING human history.

So "If I can't stick around then nobody can?" Sounds like the ancient Egyptian pharaohs though they limited themselves to some finite number of animals, slaves, and maybe a few family members.

Does the Russian Orthodox church have their own version of 72 Virgins?