Russia

[LFC]

Apr 26, 2022 16:40:30 GMT pnwguy said:

Does the Russian Orthodox church have their own version of 72 Virgins?

Yes, but it's apparently the same version used by the Catholic Church.

[LFC]

Russia is retaliating economically. That might make sense in the short-term but it seems like they're killing future markets. Poland was already withdrawing from their dependence. So was Germany. I guess Putin hopes Asia will make up for losing big contracts in Europe.

[LFC]

TPM has a few points on Putin's move to ratchet up another war with Moldova.

Vladimir Putin may yet expand his war against Ukraine, and it’s via a country you probably haven’t heard of.

It’s Transnistria, little-known in part because it barely exists.

One of the original “frozen conflicts” that emerged after the fall of communism, the statelet is an unrecognized Russian proxy republic contained entirely within Moldova. It covers a thin strip of land that borders Ukraine’s west, removed from where the bulk of fighting has taken place.

But it may be the next flashpoint in Russia’s war against Ukraine, opening up a new front in the war or, at the very minimum, ratcheting up pressure on the Ukrainian military. Below are five points on the statelet and why it matters:

2  It’s one of the first ‘frozen conflicts’ in the former USSR.

Transnistria is one of the grandaddies of so-called “frozen conflicts” in the former Soviet Union. The Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk were other examples — though they were “unfrozen” on Feb. 22, 2022.

These are regions where there’s low-level military activity by Russian proxies, aimed at defending the existence of a state that few outside of the Kremlin acknowledge as real.

Transnistria’s war began as the Soviet Union was dissolving, in November 1990. The story is familiar: separatists in the Russian-speaking region appealed to Moscow for help, claiming supposedly impending oppression by the Moldovan-speaking majority.

The result, after nearly two years of battle, was the creation of Transnistria — de facto independent and home to Russian military bases, but de jure part of Moldova.

The conflict never formally ended, and was instead “frozen,” creating a massive headache for Moldova’s development. Transnistria itself has been dominated by the kind of mafia rule that’s come to characterize the other “frozen,” unrecognized statelets that Russia has created.

[LFC]

Trump isn't the only American politician Putin has purchased. Rand Paul is also Putin's bitch.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is under fire for remarks he made Tuesday during a Senate hearing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken that are being called "propaganda" for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Saying that if Ukraine had become part of NATO, or will in the future, U.S. soldiers would be "fighting in Ukraine," Paul called it "something I very much oppose."

President Joe Biden and his administration have repeatedly stated he opposes American boots on the ground in Ukraine.

"If you look at the countries that Russia has attacked," Blinken reminded Paul, "over the last years: Georgia...Moldova, and then repeatedly in Ukraine, these are countries that were not part of NATO. It has not attacked NATO countries for probably very good reasons."

Paul defiant and argumentative, retorted in a jaw-dropping statement, "You could also argue that the countries they've attacked were part of Russia."

Stunned, Secretary Blinken struggled for words to respond, giving Paul time to amend his remarks to say, "or were part of the Soviet Union."

"I firmly disagree with that proposition," Blinken replied. "It is the fundamental right of these countries to decide their own future."

[goldenvalley]

Apr 26, 2022 20:15:01 GMT LFC said:

Trump isn't the only American politician Putin has purchased. Rand Paul is also Putin's bitch.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is under fire for remarks he made Tuesday during a Senate hearing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken that are being called "propaganda" for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Saying that if Ukraine had become part of NATO, or will in the future, U.S. soldiers would be "fighting in Ukraine," Paul called it "something I very much oppose."

President Joe Biden and his administration have repeatedly stated he opposes American boots on the ground in Ukraine.

"If you look at the countries that Russia has attacked," Blinken reminded Paul, "over the last years: Georgia...Moldova, and then repeatedly in Ukraine, these are countries that were not part of NATO. It has not attacked NATO countries for probably very good reasons."

Paul defiant and argumentative, retorted in a jaw-dropping statement, "You could also argue that the countries they've attacked were part of Russia."

Stunned, Secretary Blinken struggled for words to respond, giving Paul time to amend his remarks to say, "or were part of the Soviet Union."

"I firmly disagree with that proposition," Blinken replied. "It is the fundamental right of these countries to decide their own future."

Sign of being purchased or of simple stupidity The good Senator from Kentucky probably doesn't know that the USSR no longer exists...to him it was all Russia anyway.  The breakup happened after he finished high school and he doesn't strike me as a current events buff.

[LFC]

Germany is almost off of Russian oil and its down to just one refinery, and that one is state-owned by Russia. Natural gas really is the tougher issue.

"Today I can say that an (oil) embargo has become manageable for Germany," Habeck told journalists during a visit to Poland for talks about energy security.

Before the war in Ukraine, Russian oil accounted for about a third of Germany's supply. A month ago, Habeck said that Germany had reduced its dependence on Russian oil to 25% of its imports.

On Tuesday he said that Russian oil now accounted for only 12% of Germany's supplyand went entirely to one refinery, the PCK refinery in Schwedt near Berlin. PCK is majority-owned and operated by Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft.

"The Schwedt business model is based on buying Russian oil. That is a bone of contention, we need an alternative for Schwedt, and we will be working on it in coming days," Habeck said.

[LFC]

This is an odd mix of economic news for Russia.

The rouble is at a 2-year high against the Euro.

Russia is looking at a 17% decrease in oil production for 2022.

Russian GDP could drop 12.4%.

[LFC]

Gay bashing by Putin's gov't just got really weird.

Hackers got in a dig.

Hackers took over Bulgarian media to broadcast a meme that Russian President Vladimir Putin loathes.

He hates it so much, he made it illegal to display inside the country. The “gay Putin” graphic shows the dictator wearing makeup in front of a rainbow flag.

Hackers, activists, and social media users have launched their own campaigns aimed at disrupting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as NATO and the West respond with crippling sanctions and companies flee.

[goldenvalley]

I'm a little surprised this wasn't done earlier.

Russia’s state-controlled gas company, Gazprom, said Wednesday it had shut off the supply of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that marks a significant escalation in the economic tension between Moscow and the West over the war in Ukraine.

Gazprom said in a statement Wednesday that it had shut off the gas supply to Poland’s PGNiG gas company and Bulgaria’s Bulgargaz because they had not complied with a mandate from Russian President Vladimir Putin to pay in Russian currency. The suspension would persist from Wednesday “until the payments are made” in rubles, Gazprom said.

PGNiG confirmed the cutoff, saying that its natural gas deliveries from Gazprom “have halted completely.” It added that “at present the situation is not affecting current deliveries” to its customers, which it said were currently receiving fuel as they wished.

[LFC]

Shell is cutting off all Russian oil.

[LFC]

It sounds like Putin is amping up the rhetoric to turn his failure into an existential threat to Russia itself.

Here’s an interesting and thought provoking Twitter thread by a Rand Corporation political scientist, Mike Mazarr, on the chances of a major Russian escalation in Ukraine. It touches on some points I noted yesterday about the dangers of Russian weakness and military failure. (It builds in part off this piece from a British national security think tank, “Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion.”) On the ground in Ukraine it looks like Russia has failed miserably at its initial war aims and strategies and is now trying to grind out much more limited ambitions in the east. But within Russia and in Russian media rhetoric has escalated to make Ukraine itself almost a side issue. They portray Russia as in an existential struggle or holy war, a war that is really against NATO and the US. “Russian television has been flooded with statements urging escalation as part of an existential struggle.” A top legislative leader says: “This is a metaphysical clash between the forces of good and evil… This is truly a holy war we’re waging and we must win.”

Crazy stuff.

Mazarr references this article about infighting and blame-games within the Russia national security establishment. Some in this community have decided that Russia is really in a war with NATO and that the key error was launching into a war tied specifically to Ukraine. In other words, Russia has put itself in a bad position by putting itself on the defensive near its own territory. Why not bring the fight directly to NATO?

[jackd]

"Crazy stuff": dangerous stuff.

[LFC]

A TPM reader's thoughts about Russia discuss how disconnected their rhetoric and their actions have been, and that in itself is scary. (paywalled)

From TPM Reader PT …

I think what’s been really puzzling about the Z War this last week or so is the disconnect between Russia’s propaganda / rhetoric and its actions.

On the one hand, we’re clearly seeing an increase in the rhetorical temperature from Russia’s state media: a few days ago, Phillips O’Brien’s Twitter feed had a retweet of a Russian TV discussion in which a speaker said that Russia was going to expand the current war to the point where they could “de-nazify” the entire world! At the same time, we’re seeing discussion in western news about the prospect that the Russian military thinks it’s been in a de facto war with NATO and that they should stop holding back and move to a direct confrontation rather than a proxy conflict in Ukraine. This is the kind of rhetoric that makes one think that Russia’s leadership is delusional, suicidal, or woefully uninformed, and that they are preparing their country for a major escalation that can only end badly for everyone.

On the other hand, Russia has sacked or arrested numerous leaders from the military and intelligence services, which indicates that somebody, somewhere realizes that the war has been unfolding “not necessarily to Russia’s advantage,” as the saying goes. At the same time, the redeployment of Russian forces to Ukraine’s east shows that Russia has accepted that regime change in Ukraine is out of reach and that, rather than waste blood and treasure trying to achieve something that’s not in their power to achieve, they’re cutting their losses in northern and western Ukraine and de-scoping their war aims to something that they might be able to achieve. This is if anything a de-escalation of the conflict and shows that somebody in power has a rational and well-informed understanding of the state of the conflict and of what’s potentially achievable versus what’s hopelessly grandiose.

There are obviously lots of theories that would explain this disconnect, but all of them are at this point speculative. IMO there’s no evidence that favors one explanation over others, so I won’t go into that, but it’s undeniable that something more is going on than we currently understand.

I’m not certain what it means. And I do not think it rules out the kinds of escalation we discussed today and yesterday. But I agree with PT’s observation. There’s a big, big disconnect between Russia’s rhetoric and what it’s actually doing on the ground. My point a couple days ago is that that very disconnect creates its own kind of instability and unpredictability. But even with all that, yeah: when it comes to actions Russia’s tune is very different.

[LFC]

More on Russia's rhetoric. Putin and his allies are chest thumping wildly and making it more and more critical for them to gain a "win", whatever that means.

On a nightly talk show this week, one of the Kremlin’s top propagandists decided to quote Vladimir Putin.

“We’ll go to heaven, and they’ll simply die off,” said Vladimir Solovyov, a TV presenter known for his anti-Western polemics.

Solovyov was repeating a remark that Putin himself made in 2018, about nuclear war, in which the Russian president said that his country would go to heaven, as martyrs.

Solovyov, however, was focused on the war in Ukraine. He was responding to Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT, who framed the war’s progress as: “either we lose in Ukraine, or World War Three starts.”

“I personally think that World War Three is more realistic, because knowing us and our leader Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, the most improbable outcome – a nuclear strike – seems more likely than the other course of events,” she added.

The exchange comes as prominent Russians increasingly express frustration with the course of the war, and as some hawks call for Putin to intensify the war effort.

Though the Kremlin zealously arrests those who criticize Putin for deciding to invade Ukraine, those who argue for more aggressive approaches or who scold the Russian government for supposed weakness are largely left alone.

One Russian-language video that recently went viral featured a former Special Forces officer asking: “Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin], please decide: are we fighting a war? Or are we masturbating?” A Friday Telegram post, written by embedded Russian war correspondent Aleksandr Sladkov, sarcastically remarked on the heroism of the country’s troops, adding that “one man’s heroism is the result of another’s errors.”

Russia abandoned its effort to take Kyiv and Ukraine’s north at the end of last month, with officials saying that the country would focus on the Donbas, in Ukraine’s east. But even that effort appears to have gone far slower than expected, as relatively small gains are coupled with reports of big losses.

Instead of chastening the war’s supporters, however, these setbacks appear to have further energized them. As a result, increasingly vocal Western assessments warn Putin may soon decide to expand the scope of the war by ordering mass mobilization of Russians to augment current force levels.

[andydp]

Obviously didn’t know this little fact: they did not realize the equipment can be rendered inoperable remotely.

Russian troops steal $5 million worth of John Deere farm vehicles from Ukraine, find they've been remotely disabled

The equipment is now said to be sitting on a farm near Grozny as consultants in Moscow try to bypass the remote locks. If they are unsuccessful, the only option would be to sell the machines for spare parts.


www.techspot.com/news/94422-russian-troops-steal-5-million-worth-john-deere.html?fbclid=IwAR1ibYA00g2IJYaH-JJTA2b-yIi6vYk4aM_LU-SL-iIyEogp0OPos5pEoOA

[LFC]

I guess war crimes limited to Ukraine just weren't enough. Putin is losing it.

The French military has released videos appearing to show Russian mercenaries burying corpses near the Gossi military base in northern Mali as part of a smear campaign to falsely accuse the departing French forces of leaving behind mass graves.

Not for the first time, it appears to be a case of Russian misdirection.

The Russians want Malians to believe their ex-colonial masters are behind the death and destruction in northern Mali but Daily Beast sources say the Russians are to blame. Three witnesses say that Russia’s private military contractors have been blindfolding local villagers and forcing them to dig mass graves to hide the evidence of their atrocities.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that foreign soldiers—believed to be Russian mercenaries from the infamous Wagner Group, which is run by one of President Putin’s closest associates, and their Malian associates summarily executed an estimated 300 civilian men in the central Malian village of Moura in late March.

On April 8, just two days after the United Nations demanded that Malian authorities grant unhindered access… so that it can conduct a thorough investigation,” dozens of Russian mercenaries returned to Moura where they dragged scores of young men away from their compounds and forced them to bury corpses that were littered round the town in mass graves, three witnesses told The Daily Beast.

The Russians, according to the witnesses, divided the villagers into about six groups of between 10 to 15 individuals, blindfolded them, and then marched them to different locations where bodies were still lying on the ground.

“We walked for hours to get to an area near the sand dunes,” said 28-year-old Salif who was in a group made up of 15 villagers. “When they removed the blind fold all I could see was dead bodies littered everywhere.”

Three days after the NGO’s report was made public, the Russians returned to the scene of the crime in an attempt to hide any evidence that could prove it massacred civilians according to Daily Beast sources in the village.

[LFC]

Aaaaaaand it always comes back to the Jews. WTH?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has sparked outrage in Israel after telling the Italian television news program Zona Bianca that even Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood.”

Lavrov, largely unchecked by host Giuseppe Brindisi, went on to blame Western media for “misinterpreting” the facts of his boss Vladimir Putin’s deadly “special operation” in Ukraine. He repeated the lies that Russian forces had only hit military targets and that the Bucha massacre was a staged event.

When asked how Ukraine could be “de-nazified” when its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish, Lavrov replied: “So what if Zelensky is Jewish. The fact does not negate the Nazi elements in Ukraine. I believe that Hitler also had Jewish blood and in fact, some of the worst antisemites are Jews.”

The comment drew scorn from Dani Dayan, head of Israel’s Yad Vashem Holocaust museum, who called Lavrov’s comments “false, delusional, and dangerous, and worthy of all condemnation.” Conspiracy theorists have long pushed the lie that Hitler was in fact Jewish, but scholars have debunked the notion.

Israeli Foreign Ministry Yair Lapid summoned the Russian ambassador to Israel over the comments. “It is an unforgivable, scandalous statement, a terrible historical mistake, and we expect an apology,” Lapid told YNet news website, according to Reuters.

[andydp]

Re: “Hitler Jewish” theory

It seems Adolph’s mom was a maid for a Jewish family. There were rumors of his mom being impregnated by someone in the Shickelgruber family.

Churchill is reputed to have tried to get his parrot to say “Shickelgruber”. He wasn’t successful.

If someone here has more definitive references disproving this feel free to post it. I’m willing to bet this may have been a “psyops” attempt.

[LFC]

Mo' nuclear threats! Mo' nuclear threats! Mo' nuclear threats!

Russia has broadcast video clips simulating the destruction of the U.K. and Ireland via a massive tidal wave triggered by an underwater nuclear explosion in response to the U.K.’s support for Ukraine. The sequences showed on state channel Russia-1 Sunday night were narrated by presenter Dmitry Kiselyov, who falsely claimed Prime Minister Boris Johnson had threatened a nuclear strike on Russia. According to a translation from the BBC’s Francis Scarr, Kiselyov first said: “The island is so small that just one Sarmat missile is sufficient to sink it once and for all. Everything has been calculated already.” Kiselyov then narrated a scenario where an “underwater drone,” with “a yield of up to 100 megatons… will cause a gigantic tidal wave up to 500m high” and turn the British Isles into a “radioactive desert.” An animation showed a missile exploding off the northeast coast of the Republic of Ireland, and the ensuing tidal wave wiping out both Ireland and the U.K., although Ireland was not mentioned by name in the broadcast.

[LFC]

Dafuq? I wonder who is responsible for this one.

Anti-Ukrainian textbooks published by an educational company with ties to Vladimir Putin went up in flames early Tuesday, as a warehouse on the outskirts of Moscow became the latest site destroyed amid a spate of mysterious fires in the country.

Video released by Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry shows the warehouse for the publisher Prosveshcheniye (“Enlightenment” in English) fully engulfed in flames.

More than 100 firefighters were required to get the 8-acre blaze under control, and even then, it took them four and a half hours, according to local media reports.

“By the time firefighters arrived, the whole area was on fire,” a witness was quoted telling Russia’s TASS news agency.

[goldenvalley]

May 3, 2022 17:19:40 GMT LFC said:

Mo' nuclear threats! Mo' nuclear threats! Mo' nuclear threats!

Russia has broadcast video clips simulating the destruction of the U.K. and Ireland via a massive tidal wave triggered by an underwater nuclear explosion in response to the U.K.’s support for Ukraine. The sequences showed on state channel Russia-1 Sunday night were narrated by presenter Dmitry Kiselyov, who falsely claimed Prime Minister Boris Johnson had threatened a nuclear strike on Russia. According to a translation from the BBC’s Francis Scarr, Kiselyov first said: “The island is so small that just one Sarmat missile is sufficient to sink it once and for all. Everything has been calculated already.” Kiselyov then narrated a scenario where an “underwater drone,” with “a yield of up to 100 megatons… will cause a gigantic tidal wave up to 500m high” and turn the British Isles into a “radioactive desert.” An animation showed a missile exploding off the northeast coast of the Republic of Ireland, and the ensuing tidal wave wiping out both Ireland and the U.K., although Ireland was not mentioned by name in the broadcast.

It's like we're watching a movie. Too bad this is real and involves real war, massive death, and destruction.

[LFC]

More opinion on the continued ineffectiveness of the Russian military, how much Russia has already lost economically and in political clout, how China's president is likely distancing himself from somebody who Trump might categorize as "a loser", and how carefully the situation must be managed.

16/20 As Craig Singleton has written recently, “Chinese President Xi Jinping has been reduced to a bystander seemingly at the mercy of decisions made not in Beijing but in Washington, Brussels, and, more importantly, Moscow.”
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/26/why-xi-is-trapped-in-ukraine/

[LFC]

Putin's rattling the nuclear sabre ... again.

Russian forces held drills this week simulating nuclear-capable strikes close to European Union borders, the Russian Defense Ministry has revealed.

Members of the Baltic Fleet held war games Wednesday to “deliver mock missile strikes with the crews of Iskander operational-tactical missile systems” in Kaliningrad, the press service of the Western military district said in a statement.

The drills, held near the borders of EU-member states Poland and Lithuania, come amid increasingly unhinged attempts by Kremlin mouthpieces in Russia’s state-run media to sell the idea that a nuclear strike is inevitable.

RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan last month said it is “more probable” Russia’s war in Ukraine will end in a nuclear strike than Vladimir Putin simply backing down.

On Russia’s state-owned Channel One, Russian lawmaker Aleksei Zhuravlyov and TV host Olga Skabeyeva went even further, openly discussing the prospects of Moscow lobbing nuclear missiles at the United Kingdom, Germany and France.

Putin himself has hinted at nuclear strikes, telling lawmakers last week that Russia will unleash “lightning-fast” retaliatory strikes if anyone dares “to intervene in the ongoing events” in Ukraine.

“We have all the tools for this, things no one else can boast of having now. And we will not boast, we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know that,” he said.

This feels a bit reminiscent of North Korea's missile launches. Each is desperate for leverage and they keep ratcheting up the threat game without any Plan B of what to do if the West doesn't fold in fear. It's threat, ignored, repeat.

[jackd]

I guess we hope they keep it to threats. Not real comfortable, is it?

[andydp]

May 5, 2022 16:56:53 GMT LFC said:

Putin's rattling the nuclear sabre ... again.

This feels a bit reminiscent of North Korea's missile launches. Each is desperate for leverage and they keep ratcheting up the threat game without any Plan B of what to do if the West doesn't fold in fear. It's threat, ignored, repeat.

Agreed, its a lot of "brinksmanship". 

Random musing: could it be he sees nothing but defeat and is trying to scare people into some sort of cease fire ?  That way he can declare victory and maintain Russia's pre war status, borders and "buddies".  I have the feeling, even with a cease fire, he's already lost Russia's biggest markets for oil and gas.  China and India may make up some slack but not all of it. Regardless, once the UN gets in there to investigate, Russia will still be a pariah for its war crimes.