Russia

[goldenvalley]

I imagine Putin is nervous.  Nothing has gone according to what we imagine his plan was.  If he's still rational he's looking for a negotiated settlement. I just don't know if Ukraine is in a negotiating mood now. Maybe they would kindly allow him to withdraw his forces while promising not to shoot at them as they leave.

[LFC]

May 5, 2022 17:40:33 GMT andydp said:

I have the feeling, even with a cease fire, he's already lost Russia's biggest markets for oil and gas. 

Biggest and cheapest / easiest to ship to. One big pipeline project is already on hold and possibly dead, multiple countries (especially Germany) are looking to decouple, and everybody seems to be looking at alternatives. Putin may inadvertently done more to advance clean energy than anybody in the U.S.

Remember that this isn't the first time Putin has threatened to withhold energy, particularly natural gas in winter. No nation wants to have a gun to their head, literally or metaphorically, and Vlad has shown that he loves to point guns. If he loses the European natural gas market he'll have no leverage over most of Europe other than nuclear and military threats. As we've seen the great Russian military collapsed pretty quickly when put to the test but he should still expect an increase in all types of defensive systems showing up all over Russia's border, the very thing he hates.

[andydp]

[andydp]

The article takes great pains to remind people a lot of this could be propaganda aimed at Russian soldiers.  But its interesting to read.

Putin Has a Military Rebellion Problem on His Hands, Reports Say

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be seeing serious dissension in his military's ranks, if reports about officer insubordination and low troop morale in Ukraine are any indication.

On Monday, a senior official from the U.S. Defense Department said the agency had received anecdotal reports about officers in Russia's military refusing to follow orders in Ukraine. The statement came after numerous reports have surfaced since the beginning of the war about Russia's forces suffering from low morale.

The Pentagon official said the reports, which could not be independently confirmed, concerned officers in midgrade positions, including some at the battalion level. The claim about officers disobeying orders followed numerous reports like the one from a March 1 New York Times story that cited a Pentagon official who said entire Russian units had laid down their weapons rather than fight Ukraine's forces. Some Russian troops had even sabotaged their own vehicles, according to the official. More recently, the Ukrainian government said last month it had learned of Russian troops who had refused to fight.

He added, "In wartime, each side has an incentive to publicly minimize their own losses and inflate the losses of their opponent, including cases of soldiers surrendering, deserting and disobeying orders."

Northwestern University political science professor William Reno said he also feels statements from U.S. and European officials about Russia's low morale and officer dissent are being made, in part, as a strategic move.

"No doubt there are instances of insubordination," Reno said. "U.S. agencies pick up all sorts of Russian battlefield communications and observe movements on the ground, so I'd classify the Department of Defense statement as a 'not false' statement."



www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-has-a-military-rebellion-problem-on-his-hands-reports-say/ar-AAXcui7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=206c1eef3afa413f91e295c9ba57e257

[LFC]

Here's an analysis of Putin's May 9 speech. He didn't escalate, likely because it would make him look bad and be politically risky, but he also didn't back down in any way. The one part I disagree with is this:

16/17 Putin has once again provided us with an insight into his world view. It is one where the threat from fascists and Nazis was not extinguished on that first Victory Day in 1945. And Putin’s perspective is that Russia faces an existential threat from the forces of the West.

I always thought the "I'm scared of NATO!" to be mostly bullshit and a convenient excuse for playing the victim as he attacks other nations. I should clarify that I don't believe he's afraid NATO would ever attack but they will thwart his plans to grab ever more territory. Politically every former Soviet satellite that is doing better than those in Russia and still under Russia's thumb is just a constant offense. Ukraine was on its way to being a fairly successful European democracy and that's something that Putin's ego just can't handle.

[LFC]

Trapped

Biden is thinking about and asking the right question: “[Putin] is a very, very, very calculating man. And the problem I worry about now is that he doesn’t have a way out right now, and I’m trying to figure out what we do about that.”

The quote is courtesy of this piece by Friend of TPM Olivier Knox.

[andydp]

Interesting thought.  Be aware of the source.

I've always said, one of those oligarchs could go to one of the Putin inner guards, offer him $500 mil and a new identity if he "takes care" of Putin.  End of problem

Coup to remove cancer-stricken Putin underway in Russia, Ukrainian intelligence chief says


A coup is underway to oust Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is "very sick" due to cancer, according to Ukraine's head of military intelligence.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coup-to-remove-cancer-stricken-putin-underway-in-russia-ukrainian-intelligence-chief-says/ar-AAXgROK?ocid=uxbndlbing

[indy]

Yeah, that would be nice but I don't believe it yet. Putin spent a lot of his time making sure this sort of thing doesn't happen. I believe this is much of the reason his military is so incompetent. If you don't want a coup, you don't want strong or ambitious military leaders. But we can still hope.

[andydp]

Again, mostly speculation but its from a pretty high level.  Long article, good background and opinions are from various sources.

Russia's offensive 'losing momentum,' NATO official says; Finland formalizes intent to join NATO: Live Ukraine updates

“The brutal invasion (by) Russia is losing momentum,” NATO Deputy-Secretary General Mircea Geoana told reporters in Berlin. “We know that with the bravery of the Ukrainian people and army, and with our help, Ukraine can win this war.”



An intelligence update from Britain's Ministry of Defence on Sunday echoed Geoana and also said the invading army has probably lost one-third of the ground combat forces it committed at the beginning of the war.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-offensive-losing-momentum-nato-official-says-finland-formalizes-intent-to-join-nato-live-ukraine-updates/ar-AAXi04h?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=bf14e09d78da4fce84ca90b2b0fe61db

[indy]

Sweden has also announced that the ruling party now supports joining NATO as well.

Sweden will be applying to join NATO with neighboring Finland. On Saturday, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and informed him of his plans to apply to join NATO in the next few days.

www.businessinsider.com/swedens-prime-minister-says-ruling-party-supports-joining-nato-2022-5

[andydp]

A blinding flash of the obvious.  

Why 'the Russian army just isn't very good'

Books will be written about Russia's failures in Ukraine, and Ukraine's unexpectedly strong resistance in the face of an invasion by its much larger, better armed, and more powerful neighbor. Russian President Vladimir Putin's Feb. 24 lightning strike to capture Kyiv, the capital, was grounded, then retracted. And Russia's backup plan, redeploying its attrited forces to seize more territory in Ukraine's east and south, is by all accounts going haltingly and may not succeed, either.

Ukraine is humiliating the Kremlin — killing its generals, sinking its battleships, destroying its tanks and aircraft, even pushing back Russian advances — but it isn't winning. Russia has killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers, flattened major cities and small towns, caused Ukraine's economy to shrink a projected 30 percent this year, and taken a big swath of Ukraine's territory.

And Russia may yet meet some of its redefined military objectives in Ukraine. But Moscow's mighty army, previously thought to be the second-most-powerful in the world, is losing right now. What's going on?


theweek.com/briefing/1013495/why-the-russian-army-just-isnt-very-good?fbclid=IwAR0ptsAiYVwB6A7hxGGsWuvbCJ2rCEdRwJrYh7mK890kFxW_l2fQwm20JHY

[andydp]

[LFC]

Putin racks up a win as Italy bows to his demand that oil and gas be paid for in rubles. Europe in general is paying the price for placing their dependence on an unstable tyrant. Come to think of it so is America since we never did much too little to protect ourselves from Saudi control of our oil / gasoline prices.

At the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s savage war in Ukraine, the European Union put up a unified front to boycott all things Russian. Despite initial hesitancy from Italy, Germany, and Hungary “disgracing themselves” over ties to the Kremlin, pressure led to even these holdouts joining forces and seizing oligarch yachts and villas, and stopping exports of Gucci and Prada to rich Russian customers.

But as the war wears on—and energy prices skyrocket—many of Europe’s energy giants are growing weary and finding ways to keep buying Russian gas without pissing off Putin, who demanded on March 31 that payments from “unfriendly” countries must be made in the Russian currency. Reverberations were felt all across Europe last month when Russia abruptly stopped supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to pay in rubles.

Italy’s Eni company confirmed late Tuesday that it would in fact be opening a ruble account with Russian energy company Gazprom’s bank Gazprombank (which has somehow not fallen under sanctions) to meet Moscow’s demands for payments in Russian currency. To get around sanctions, Eni —which previously paid by transferring euro directly to Russian energy company Gazprom—will also open a euro account with the bank and let the bank make the transfer to ruble on their behalf.

Nearly half of the 90 percent of all gas Italy imports comes from Russia. The country does not yet have a viable backup plan if the Kremlin turns off the spigot. “There is no official pronouncement of what it means to breach sanctions,” Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said Tuesday when pressed about the payments. “Nobody has ever said anything about whether ruble payment breach sanctions.”

With many countries, including Italy, counting down to elections next year, voters’ utility bills are taking priority. Germany’s Uniper S.E. and Austria’s OMV AG are also reportedly stretching the same EU loophole that allows Italy to pay in rubles without breaking any sanctions. The EU Commission, which hardly has a reputation for being tough, is as much to blame by never laying out guidance on how countries can pay Gazprom for fuel.

On Monday, gas prices fell slightly in Europe after EU Commission spokesman Eric Mamer said that opening ruble accounts wasn’t technically against any rules. “Anything that goes beyond opening an account in the currency of the contract with Gazprombank and making a payment to that account, and then issuing a statement saying that, with that you consider you have finalized the payment, contravenes the sanctions,” he said, leaving the issue to interpretation.

On Tuesday, he backtracked and said indeed that opening bank accounts in rubles “goes beyond the recommendations and constitute a breach of sanctions.” But by then Italy’s Eni had already opened the account.

[andydp]

I put this here since it outlines many of the problems other analysts have pointed out in the RUS Army.  Remember the intel is coming from the UKR armed forces.

A bit of background: the designation "Guards" on a Russian military unit designates an elite force with modern weapons systems, roughly equivalent to a unit like the 101st Airborne. (Although at this point, the 101 would probably eat them for breakfast.) Their armor equipment still have major design flaws where one round can effectively blow the turret off a tank.

Ukraine says it captured documents revealing that an elite Russian unit lost over 130 tanks in failed attacks on Kharkiv

Another victory for Ukraine? After a three-month siege, in mid-May Ukrainian troops finally drove away the last Russian forces surrounding Kharkiv, Ukraine's second most populous city.

Since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the metropolis of 1.4 million has been under relentless bombardment, costing the lives over 600 civilians by mid-May.

With Russian forces driven back, in some cases all the way to the Ukrainian border with Russia, most Russian artillery (save for the heaviest guns and rockets) have been pushed out of range, giving Kharkiv's resilient citizens respite from unrelenting, indiscriminate attacks.

Concurrently, Ukraine's military intelligence directorate just published what is apparently a captured Russian log recording armored vehicle losses suffered by the 1st Guards Tank Army in the first three weeks of the war. This elite unit spearheaded the assault on the Kharkiv region, but was withdrawn in April, its commander dismissed after weeks of fruitless attacks.


www.businessinsider.com/captured-documents-say-elite-russian-unit-lost-tanks-kharkiv-ukraine-2022-5?fbclid=IwAR21Q1bZbA60Igs6isSg085Z_VqfvCe-nykuCAqCAB_AElzWYG4396RiNqs

[goldenvalley]

This won't change anything coming from Putin but it's interesting to see.

A veteran Russian diplomat to the U.N. Office at Geneva says he handed in his resignation before sending out a scathing letter to foreign colleagues inveighing against the “aggressive war unleashed” by President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
Boris Bondarev, 41, confirmed his resignation in a letter delivered Monday morning at the Russian diplomatic mission after a diplomatic official passed on his English-language statement to The Associated Press.

“For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on Feb. 24 of this year,” he wrote, alluding to the date of Russia’s invasion.

Reached by phone, Bondarev – a diplomatic counselor who has focused on Russia’s role in the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva after postings in places like Cambodia and Mongolia – confirmed he handed in his resignation in a letter addressed to Ambassador Gennady Gatilov.

In his English-language statement, which he said he emailed to about 40 diplomats and others, Bondarev said those who conceived the war “want only one thing — to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity.”

He railed against the growing “lies and unprofessionalism” in the Russian Foreign Ministry and took particular aim at Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who he said in“18 years, he went from a professional and educated intellectual … to a person who constantly broadcasts conflicting statements and threatens the world (that is, Russia too) with nuclear weapons!”
“Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred.”

[jackd]

He'd better be careful about who gives him food and drink.

[AnBr]

May 23, 2022 17:25:48 GMT jackd said:

He'd better be careful about who gives him food and drink.

Just what I was thinking.

[andydp]

Another Russian General killed.

Once again, caution must be taken since the info comes from UKR forces.  


Another Russian General Reported Dead in Ukraine

Retired Russian Air Force Major General Banamat Botashev, 63, has become the 13th general to die in Ukrainian territory since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, according to a tally by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. (Russia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed only two, and U.S. officials have not given a specific number). He was reportedly shot down by Ukrainian forces over the Luhansk region on Sunday, becoming the highest-ranking air force commander to be killed in the war.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/another-russian-general-reported-dead-in-ukraine/ar-AAXFBJX?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=217cc4e424844e589971240e2d41f4fd

[LFC]

Retired Russian Air Force Major General Banamat Botashev...

I'm a little confused about this one.

[AnBr]

Me too.

[LFC]

May 24, 2022 21:01:29 GMT AnBr said:

Me too.

Maybe it means he was just permanently retired?

[goldenvalley]

I am wondering 1) is it just Ukrainian propaganda to boost civilian morale and to convince the US and others to keep the aid coming, and 2) is the Russian military running out of active duty generals that are willing to be involved in this operation?

[indy]

Ukraine seems to be running a top-notch propaganda effort. Surely part of the reason it is so well-received is because most of the sympathy is already with them. Even so, the stuff I have seen on social media and elsewhere has just been really, really good.

[AnBr]

The most effective propaganda has an element of truth.

[andydp]

May 24, 2022 20:23:10 GMT LFC said:

Retired Russian Air Force Major General Banamat Botashev...

I'm a little confused about this one.

If its any help, in the US Military, Generals can be recalled after retirement.