Russia

[LFC]

It doesn't appear that all Russian officials trust Wagner. Welcome to Russia's internal power struggles.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group operations in the city. Prigozhin’s press service stated that St. Petersburg officials refused to provide a permit for the newly opened Wagner Center in St. Petersburg on a technicality.[6] The press service noted that St. Petersburg officials are deliberately refusing to issue the permit based on their "ideological” differences, given that Wagner received the permission to construct the center in July.[7] The press service added that Wagner had petitioned the court and will take the issue further if the court recognizes St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov and his government have committed any “crimes.”[8] Prigozhin also accused Beglov and other St. Petersburg “liberal” businessmen of financially supporting Ukrainian “nationalists” and betraying Russia in response to the situation.[9] Prigozhin has previously accused Beglov of failing to support the Russian war effort and demanded his resignation, likely as a result of resistance from Beglov on expanding Wagner’s presence in St. Petersburg.[10] ISW also reported that a Russian nationalist outlet Pravda.Ru, which consistently reports on Prigozhin-related news, published a defamatory piece on Beglov’s uninterest in creating volunteer battalions in August.[11] Prigozhin is increasingly weaponizing his role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine to push his business aspirations.

[LFC]

A view of Russian attitudes about themselves and other neighboring nations that explains why they can accept the atrocities they commit so glibly while feeling attacked because somebody they're beating on defends themselves. The more I learn about Russia and its leaders the more it makes sense that they are a perfect fit for the Republican Party.

The undeniably broad domestic support for Russia’s brutal attack against Ukraine has baffled and horrified people around the world. How could so many ordinary Russian people fall for Kremlin’s crude and outlandish anti-Ukrainian propaganda? A long 🧵

Trying to make sense of this has become an obsession for me. My conclusions are undoubtedly informed by my own positionality as a Central Asian. In short, the propaganda works because it taps into something that has been a crucial part of Russian identity long before Putin.

Russian society famously underwent extreme upheavals in the 20th century. Revolutions, World Wars, emergence and collapse of the USSR - the dizzying magnitude of change and disruption is hard to exaggerate. Yet, amidst all the turmoil, one part of the Russian worldview persisted.

The remarkably stable and enduring phenomenon transcending different historical periods and regime types is the self-conception of Russia as a great power that brings good to those around it and Russian people as bearers of superior culture and morality.

Deeply internalized, the idea of its own benevolence has long permeated and shaped Russian society. In this narrative, unlike the old European powers guilty of ruthless colonial conquest, Russia is a selfless bringer of culture, prosperity, and order.

The view of Russia as a big brother bestowing its blessings on the lesser people around it is ubiquitous among Russians of all political persuasions. In this narrative, Russia’s neighbors are perpetually indebted to it. The relationship is always unequal.

The word “gift“ features prominently. The gifts include Russian language, literature, music, and art. But also science and, even, modernity itself. Naturally, in this worldview, Russians are superior and those on the receiving end of Russia’s largesse are expected to be grateful.

Russia’s view of Central Asians is unabashedly and unapologetically racist, of the “we taught you how to piss standing up” variety. Russia’s long-standing view of Ukrainians is more complex but equally pernicious and condescending.

Ominously, according to Russian politicians from Putin on down, in case of #Ukraine and #Kazakhstan, the list of Russian “gifts” includes chunks of territory or even statehood itself. Sovereign nations since 1991, both 🇺🇦 and 🇰🇿 have been described by Putin as artificial states.

[LFC]

TAC provides a good view into the American, Putin-loving right-wing. It's from a writer at antiwar.com (you should check out the hackish, eye crossing website "design") but as long as he ignores the facts that Putin started the war, continues to attack civilian infrastructure, and is responsible for thousands of war crimes (over 400 discovered in Kherson already) and blames the U.S. for everything they're more than happy to publish his apologetic twaddle. First he whines on and on about how the U.S. is preventing negotiations which, of course, is just bullshit. Then this.

But instead of exploring those calls, the U.S. has continued to corner Putin.

Putin, and a line of Russian leaders preceding him, warned that Russia was being cornered by NATO’s eastern encroachment toward its border. Ukraine, they have insisted, is the red line. NATO in Ukraine, if not Ukraine in NATO, may just be the beginning.

On June 29, the U.S. announced the establishment of a permanent headquarters for U.S. forces in Poland that would be "accompanied by a field support battalion." Biden boasted that it would be “the first permanent U.S. forces on NATO’s eastern flank."

The announcement violated the promise of the NATO-Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations—that as NATO expanded east toward Russia there would be no "permanent stationing of substantial combat forces"—and further cornered Russia.

In October, the U.S. deployed the Army’s 101st Airborne Division, the “Screaming Eagles” to Romania near the border with Ukraine. The 4,700 soldier deployment, now the closest U.S. forces to Ukraine, are “closely watching” Russian forces and practicing and conducting drills that "replicate exactly what's going on" in the war.

On November 3, Russian defense chief Sergey Shoigu said that “the number of NATO forces in Eastern and Central Europe had risen by two and a half times since February.”

And it is not just NATO forces that are moving to Eastern Europe. On November 9, the State Department approved the sale of nearly half a billion dollars’ worth of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System to Lithuania: the same type of long range missile the U.S. is providing Ukraine. The State Department press release said that “This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by helping to improve the military capability of a NATO Ally that is an important force for ensuring political stability and economic progress within Eastern Europe.”

U.S. moves are not only cornering Russia from Eastern Europe. They are also coming from the north east and Russia’s 800 mile long border with Finland. Finland and Sweden who are awaiting the final two NATO member nations’ approval to ascend to NATO have not ruled out hosting NATO bases or nuclear weapons. Asked at a press conference if Finland would allow nuclear weapons on its territory, Prime Minister Sanna Marin responded that Finland won’t “close any doors” or set “any preconditions to its NATO membership.” Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson seconded that position saying that “Finland and Sweden should draw exactly the same conclusions,” and “embrace” all of NATO’s capabilities.

Whether or not Finland and Sweden host NATO bases or nuclear weapons, on November 2, the State Department approved the potential sale of guided multiple launch rocket systems to Finland to bolster “the land and air defense capabilities in Europe's northern flank.” In May, Putin said that Finland and Sweden joining NATO posed no threat to Russia but warned that “the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response.”

Finland and Sweden’s embrace of all NATO’s capabilities is not the only nuclear news that is further cornering Russia. On October 26, the U.S. announced that they are pushing forward delivery of upgraded B61-12 air-dropped gravity nuclear bombs to NATO bases in Europe. The upgraded bombs are not only more accurate but, more provocatively for Russia, are designed so that all U.S. and allied bomber planes and fighter aircraft can carry them. Russia has complained that the accelerated upgrade turns the weapons into tactical battlefield weapons and that it is a lowering of the “nuclear threshold” that they “cannot ignore.”

Let me repeat a piece of that.

U.S. moves are not only cornering Russia from Eastern Europe. They are also coming from the north east and Russia’s 800 mile long border with Finland. Finland and Sweden who are awaiting the final two NATO member nations’ approval to ascend to NATO have not ruled out hosting NATO bases or nuclear weapons.

Got that? Putin has become so clearly aggressive that Finland and Sweden, OF THEIR OWN ACCORD, asked to join NATO to safeguard their people and that's a "U.S. move" that's "cornering Russia." Putin has literally slaughtered hundreds of thousands and produced a level of war crimes not seen on the continent since WWII but not a word. Not ... one ... word.

[LFC]

Here's the kind of thing the Putin puffers can so callously ignore. Look at my post about the TAC article just above. What kinds of soulless, moral free, inhuman piece of garbage must you be to spend paragraph after paragraph whining about how it's not nice to corner Putin and ignore the fact that he is literally a monster? Must be a good paying gig.

What is already apparent, however, is that the Russians here operated a detention system on a scale not seen in any of the dozens of other cities, towns and villages liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks.

An outline of mass incarceration was already appearing on Saturday and Sunday, when a dozen people told The Post that they had either been detained themselves or were searching for someone who had been taken. Many approached reporters on the street, asking for help in finding their loved ones.

Some Kherson residents were arrested because they were accused of being freedom fighters. Others said locals were locked up because they had Ukrainian tattoos, wore traditional clothing, took selfies standing near Russian troops, or simply dared to say, “Slava Ukraini” — “Glory to Ukraine.”

A mother was arrested in front of her teenage son and held for two months on a suspicion of helping Ukrainian forces.

A 64-year-old man was detained and beaten with a hammer for fighting — eight years ago.

A priest was arrested and sent to Crimea, according to a congregant. Even the mayor was arrested. Still, no one knows where he is.

“We’re talking about thousands of people,” said Oleksandr Samoylenko, head of the regional council of Kherson. “On any given day, the Russians had 600 people in their torture chambers.”

Samoylenko said it would take time to figure out how many people were detained, how many remain missing, and if mass graves, like those found in other liberated areas, would also be discovered here.

“A lot of people have disappeared,” Samoylenko said, adding that he feared the city’s name would soon join the ranks of cities such as Bucha, Irpin and Izyum, which are now synonymous with Russian atrocities.

“It was a nightmare,” he said.

[LFC]

TPM explains why the loss of Kherson was particularly tough for Putin politically and personally.

Putin Lost More Than Just Kherson This Week

There’s a big piece of Russia’s latest defeat in Ukraine this week that’s getting missed.

It goes straight to the heart of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated justification for starting the war: the idea that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are historically united, and that the regions of Ukraine that Russia is attempting to seize are themselves “historically Russian.”

Putin himself has said this a few times since ordering the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, at one point casting himself as an heir to Peter the Great. Speaking of what he described as a military campaign that Peter the Great undertook to return “historically Russian lands,” Putin said that the leader, like himself in Ukraine, was focused on “returning and fortifying.”

There’s nowhere more “historically Russian,” in this mythical view of history, than the region from which Russia began to withdraw last week, leaving behind the city of Kherson and its only foothold along the entire west bank of the Dnipro River.

During the 18th and 19th centuries, Russia built cities along the Black Sea coast, and sent its people there. Known as Novorossiya (New Russia), the region encompassed what’s now Ukraine’s south.

The cities that Tsarist Russia built back then include Odesa and Kherson.

Both were founded under Catherine the Great, as Russia sought to consolidate its territorial gains after annexing the region. A statue of Catherine the Great still stands in the center of Odesa, though Ukrainians are debating removing it. Russian troops reportedly removed the body of Grigory Potemkin, Catherine the Great’s lover, before retreating from Kherson.

Ukraine’s south contains the first land grab that Putin undertook in Ukraine — the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

After Russia seized Crimea in 2014, it tried to foment pro-Russian uprisings across the region, including in Kherson and Odesa. Those attempts failed, but not before Russian-backed insurgents created a fake Novorossiya parliament, meant to represent the region. That effort went nowhere, with the parliament quietly disappearing.

Days before the February 2022 invasion, Putin referenced Odesa specifically, saying that Russia would “punish” those who, he claimed, suppressed pro-Russian protests in the city.

The point of this miniature history lesson is to say that the region plays a big role in the emotional imagination of Russian nationalists, constituting both an outpost of Russian imperialism and an example of its bygone greatness from hundreds of years ago.

Kherson, but not Odesa, was the site of Russia’s most successful advance in the early days of the war. Moscow’s troops managed to secure bridgeheads at the southern end of the huge Dnipro River, which bisects Ukraine from north to south.

As Ukrainian forces managed to stabilize the frontline, Russia wound up with a sizeable bridgehead on the western side of the Dnipro, in Kherson. It was a a large foothold for the Kremlin in a territory which formed an integral part of Putin’s mythical view of Russia’s place in Ukraine.

And, given the region’s geography, the placement of Russian forces on the western side of the Dnipro River gave them a bridgehead from which they might, at some point in the future, launch attacks along the coast to take Odesa.

Now, with the withdrawal amid a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, that task will be much more difficult. The Dnipro River is an obstacle again, and the movement of Russian forces is no longer towards these lands that they claim as historic, but away from them.

The defeat isn’t only the loss of square feet of land. It’s both a symbolic cessation, and a tactical one. It’ll be far harder now for the Russian army to realize the kind of land grab that exists in the Kremlin’s mythical imagination a reality.

[LFC]

F***.

NATO and global leaders will meet on Wednesday after a Russian-made rocket fell on NATO member Poland and killed two people, raising concerns that the Ukraine conflict could spill over its borders.

Russia denied it was responsible. The Polish foreign ministry said the rocket fell on Tuesday at 3:40 p.m. on Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland about 6 kilometres (3-1/2 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

[jackd]

Biden said it was unlikely the rocket came from Russia.

[LFC]

I heard this AM that it may be a wayward missile that Ukrainian fired from a missile defense system.

[goldenvalley]

Poland's view:

Polish President Andrzej Duda said there was no indication that the missile that hit a Polish village near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday was an attack on his country, describing it as “most likely … an accident.”

Oleksiy Danilov, a Ukrainian security official, said on Wednesday that Kyiv is calling for a “joint examination” into the incident
after President Volodymyr Zelensky made stronger assertions that Russia was behind Tuesday’s explosion.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that the explosion in Poland on Tuesday that claimed two lives was probably caused by a Ukrainian missile defending against Russian strikes.

“This is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears the ultimate responsibility,” Stoltenberg said of the Russian-made missile that hit Polish territory. Polish President Andrzej Duda also said there was no indication of an intentional attack, while a Ukrainian defense official said Kyiv was seeking details from its partners that led to the NATO conclusion and called for a joint probe.

[LFC]

Buh-bye.

A colonel serving as the deputy head of one of the Russian navy’s top colleges has been found dead in mysterious circumstances, according to local reports.

Vadim Boyko is said to have been responsible for working with troops recently called up under Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization order” for the war against Ukraine.

He reportedly showed up to work early Wednesday at the Makarov Pacific Higher Naval School in Vladivostok—and then was found with at least one gunshot wound.

Several local media reports were quick to deem his death a suicide, with the Far Eastern Gazette reporting that he “fired a bullet in his temple.” The news outlet said Boyko’s suicide had been confirmed with sources within the Pacific Fleet via a local TV station.

“Yes, Colonel Boyko committed suicide within the walls of the [naval college],” the unnamed sources were quoted saying.

"Committed suicide." Uh, huh.

[LFC]

The maneuvering continues.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian businessman and Putin ally who shot from obscure notoriety to center stage in Russia’s war against Ukraine thanks to his ruthless tactics and deranged prison inmate-recruitment scheme, reportedly has plans to build his own political party.

Sources cited by Meduza on Tuesday—and said to be close to both the Kremlin and Prigozhin—say the notorious Wagner overlord is weighing plans to establish a “conservative movement” that could later be turned into its own party.

The movement, which reportedly plans to take aim at Russia’s elite, is said to have drawn inspiration from none other than Alexei Navalny’s team of anti-corruption campaigners who regularly release investigations targeting Putin’s closest associates.

But in addition to modeling itself as an “anti-elite” movement, Meduza reports, Prigozhin also hopes to shape the movement out of a thirst for revenge over Russia’s losses in Ukraine.

“He will cultivate a thirst for vengeance, for the military defeats — since, in the end, we’ll win all the same. Who is to blame if we didn’t make it to Kyiv, if we surrendered Kherson? Once again, the elites,” one source was quoted saying of Prigozhin’s vision.

[LFC]

Putin understands that his ROI on Trump is just about done. DeSantist is the new Russian investment.

[LFC]

That messes with their propaganda. This is what happens when you have a sane, steady hand as president. Compare and contrast to Trump and W Bush/Cheney.

[goldenvalley]

Nov 17, 2022 16:26:39 GMT LFC said:

That messes with their propaganda. This is what happens when you have a sane, steady hand as president. Compare and contrast to Trump and W Bush/Cheney.

Not Trump!  He said on Tuesday that he is so steady there was no war for "many decades" while he was president!?!  

[LFC]

Putin is making good use of his purchase.

[LFC]

Poland wants to ensure that other European nations have no illusions about Russia.

This was a nice dig.

[LFC]

NATO stands up to the horror that Russia has unleashed.

Robert van der Noordaa
@g900ap

Breaking: NATO Parliamentary Assembly now recognizes Russia as terrorist state. All 30 #NATO countries #supported the proposals of the delegation. NATO call for setting up a special tribunal for Russian warcrimes.

[LFC]

I'm not sure I buy all of this about Russia collapsing into a civil war but there's no doubt that Putin is facing some level of political risk and tension.

Leaked emails from a whistleblower at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveal a civil war among President Vladimir Putin's closest allies as his invasion of Ukraine continues to falter.

The agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, writes regular dispatches to Russian dissident exile Vladimir Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the FSB over the war that began when Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

Dated November, the agent's latest emails detail inner turmoil and conflict within the Kremlin, predicting an "inevitable" civil war, and that Russia will soon "descend into the abyss of terror" as people grow increasingly tired of the war.

The whistleblower focuses on Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Putin ally and founder of the mercenary outfit the Wagner Group, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

Both Prigozhin and Kadyrov have continued to criticize how Putin's war against Ukraine is being handled, appearing to be siding with each other in rare displays of dissent, suggesting that rifts may be emerging inside the Kremlin.

U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also assessed in late October that Prigozhin and his military group could "pose a threat to Putin's rule."

The FSB agent, however, said that "there is no model of 'just changing power'" in Russia.

"There is no way to 'change everything' in Russia so that the country as a whole will function and does not descend into the abyss of terror," the email said, laying out how a civil war would play out in the country.

"In the beginning we may get a haphazard riot, with only looting and chaotic skirmishes between everyone. Let me try to explain: the struggle of security agencies against Prigozhin's structures, a real war against each other, is bad, but generally inevitable," they wrote.

"Or there will be battles of the regions for the division of resources. Or a scramble of various forces for control over regions or chunks of the country (Russia)."

But the country could collapse into total chaos, the agent said.

[LFC]

TAC published a meltdown over the missiles that fell in Poland. The author screeches that the source being Russia was the first assumption. He screeches that Zelensky blamed it on Russia who, of course, does actually bear the blame. (How DARE Ukraine try to defend itself!) Now read this damning passage and be sure to cue ominous music.

After the meeting, President Biden was asked if the missile was of Russian origin. “There is preliminary information that contests that. I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate. But it is unlikely, in the minds of the trajectory, that it was fired from Russia,” Biden said, though he did not elaborate on where the missile might have come from.

But Biden’s silence said what needed to be said. Typically, when only two countries are firing missiles at one another, and it seems likely that one of the two countries is not responsible, the other one probably is.

a) Let's compare Biden's response to the right-wing on ... well, just about anything. In less than two minutes after any incident they picked up and ran with they'd have the entire thing defined and repeated in a thousand places, even though they'd make up 99% of it.

b) Big "WHOA THERE, CHAMP!" for the author. "Two countries firing missiles at one another?" That's a flat out lie. Not a slip-up, not clumsy wording, but a flat out lie. Russia fired missiles AT UKRAINE. Ukraine fired missiles AT RUSSIAN MISSILES. If you can't tell the difference then you should STFU and never, ever, ever write about politics again, not even on a napkin.

c) The aggressor is at fault. NOBODY is saying Russia isn't at fault for setting up this murderous situation other than you and the rest of the Putin puffers.

EDIT: IIRC if you start a gunfight and somebody is killed by a round fired by a police officer or person legally defending themselves, you're charged with murder and receive 100% of the blame rather than the person who fired in self-defense.

[LFC]

Poland continues to keep pushing back at Russia.

Polish officials have been accused of disinviting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov from a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Lodz, Poland, next week, just days after questions arose over whether Russia’s war in Ukraine is spilling over into neighboring Poland.

Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, accused Poland, the current OSCE chair, of railroading European national security by barring Lavrov from leading a Russian delegation at the 29th Ministerial Council.

“Nowadays, the Polish chairmanship is practically demolishing this negotiating venue when they physically prevent a delegation from taking part and speaking,” Zakharova said, according to TASS.

The Polish Foreign Ministry notified the Kremlin about Lavrov not being welcome via diplomatic note, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry said. Poland has also blocked Russian legislators from joining in on the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting this week in Warsaw, according to local Polish news outlet, TVP World.

Lavrov is not allowed to attend because he is sanctioned, according to Poland.

“Delegations should be adjusted to the current EU regulations and not include persons that are sanctioned by the European Union,” the Polish OSCE chairmanship said.

Gee, why would the OSCE chair disinvite Russia? My actual question is why were they invited in the first place. Here are the stated goals of the OSCE. Putin has pretty much blown up all of them.

With 57 participating States in North America, Europe and Asia, the OSCE – the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe – is the world’s largest regional security organization. The OSCE works for stability, peace and democracy for more than a billion people, through political dialogue about shared values and through practical work that aims to make a lasting difference.

The OSCE is a forum for political dialogue on a wide range of security issues and a platform for joint action to improve the lives of individuals and communities. The organization uses a comprehensive approach to security that encompasses the politico-military, economic and environmental, and human dimensions. Through this approach, and with its inclusive membership, the OSCE helps bridge differences and build trust between states by co-operating on conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict rehabilitation.

With its Institutions, expert units and network of field operations, the OSCE addresses issues that have an impact on our common security, including arms control, terrorism, good governance, energy security, human trafficking, democratization, media freedom and national minorities.

[LFC]

The European Parliament is also pushing back on Russa, though there are some interesting bedfellows who support Putin.

[andydp]

As we have seen, logistics drives the war wagon.  Russia has shown they don't do well at head to head battles so they're using artillery to maintain the momentum.  BUT... Russia is running out of ammo for their artillery.  The other factor (shown during Vietnam) is you can't just pound an objective, you need to occupy it.

Russia Is Running Out Of Ammo: How Much Longer Can It Keep Fighting?

On Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told journalists that Russians "have struggled with logistics from the very beginning" of the war and "are still struggling with logistics" now. He added that they are "experiencing significant shortages of artillery munitions and reaching out to Iran and North Korea to get help from them."


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-running-out-of-ammo-how-much-longer-can-it-keep-fighting/ar-AA14yjVZ

[LFC]

To be fair we don't know the actual cause of death, and may never know, but this is what happens to the insufficiently loyal or useful subjects of Tsar Vlad.

[LFC]

I know Garry Kasparov has a pretty brutal view of Putin in general but I've read a lot of opinions that agree with him on Merkel's role in enabling him and putting Europe, especially Germany, at risk through natural gas dependence. He also swings at Obama and Biden.

I would say Merkel is trying to rewrite history, but really it's that she refuses to apologize or admit error for years of empowering Putin, up to and including this war. 1/7

Dr. Liana Fix
@lianafix
This long Merkel portrait is worth your time and says a lot about the legacy she will be remembered for. Here are some interesting, concerning, and surprising points 🧵👇(1/14)

Merkel championed engagement with Putin, pulling Europe along. The idea that Russia would be liberalized, would be too interconnected for Putin to attack, etc. It was proved wrong in 2014 and still she doubled-down, pushing ahead with Nord Stream 2, etc. 2/7

Even Steinmeier, Putin's apologist for years, has apologized! But Merkel babbles about her legacy, as if anything could prove her right at this point. A disgrace. She and Obama helped create this monster with their complacency. They should speak. 3/7

[LFC]

Russia's economy continues to decline. Some of the comments note that Ukraine is taking a much worse economic beating. Of course Russia is dependent on a functional economy to continue arming its troops. Ukraine is more politically dependent on nations with humming economies to supply it. The constraint isn't financial.