Russia

[jackd]

The question is how long the west will continue to supply Ukraine.

[LFC]

Nov 27, 2022 22:13:09 GMT jackd said:

The question is how long the west will continue to supply Ukraine.

The fascists are certainly sympathetic to Putin. The Republican Party is Exhibit A.

[LFC]

Sadly from the polls and statements being made on multiple forums this represents quite a bit of core Russia, i.e. ethnic Russians near the big cities rather than other ethnicities further out. There really is a belief in their overall superiority, much like American white nationalism, simply based on who they are and their history but not on what they are today.

[LFC]

Guns or butter.

With so many educated people having now fled Russia before and during conscription and now education funding being cut even further, Putin really is driving the country into Third World status.

[LFC]

Look who Russia bought! He's clearly been delivering.

The cousin and cash handler for one of Russia’s most notorious oligarchs poured tens of thousands of dollars into electing a newly minted congressman-elect who called Ukraine’s government “a totalitarian regime.”

Republican George Devolder-Santos vanquished Democrat Robert Zimmerman this month in the race for a House seat covering parts of Long Island and the New York City borough of Queens—riding a red wave that swept the Empire State this cycle, and washing away two decades of Democratic dominance in the district.

Devolder-Santos had long courted conservative media attention by presenting himself as a “walking, living, breathing contradiction”—a gay Latino millennial born in New York City, who is also a fervent devotee of ex-President Donald Trump.

For much of his professional career, which included a stint as regional director at an alleged Ponzi scheme, the Republican used the name George Devolder. However, as he ventured further into the world of politics, he began to increasingly use the name George Devolder-Santos or simply George Santos.

He stood out to the Washington Post earlier this year for his remarks in the aftermath of Russia’s bloody, unprovoked assault on Ukraine.

“It’s not like Ukraine is a great democracy. It’s a totalitarian regime. They’re not a great bastion of freedom,” the congressman-to-be told the paper.

He has insisted that Ukraine “welcomed the Russians into their provinces”—an apparent reference to President Vladimir Putin’s 2014 invasion to prop up rogue separatist parties—and that Ukrainians in the east “feel more Russian than Ukrainian,” even though every single Ukrainian province overwhelmingly voted for independence in 1991.

It was not the first time Devolder-Santos had parroted Kremlin talking points. In the weeks before Putin’s brutal, blundering attack upon his western neighbor, the candidate repeatedly took to Twitter to accuse President Joe Biden of plotting to “start a war” with Russia and deploy American troops to Ukraine.

But unreported until now is that by the time Devolder-Santos made these statements, his congressional ambitions had already received a $32,800 boost from a controversial figure linked to the uppermost echelons of the Russian regime—and that support would more than double in size during the months ahead.

The cash came from Andrew Intrater and his wife, who variously listed her occupation as “homemaker” and “analyst” for Falcon AI, one of her husband’s subsidiary firms.

Intrater’s main venture is today called Sparrow Capital, but it previously used the name Columbus Nova—and its primary function has long been to manage the investments of Intrater’s cousin, Viktor Vekselberg, one of Putin’s wealthiest and most influential courtiers.

Seems like this guy too. I suspect his son as well.

On March 12, 2007, an obscure congressman from Texas announced his run for the Presidency of the United States. He was a fringe candidate running on the Republican ticket with little hope of winning a primary, let alone the nomination.

Then—suddenly—Ron Paul was everywhere.

Within a few months, Paul landed a spot on Real Time with Bill Maher, thanks to unprecedented online momentum that would capture the attention of the mainstream press.

Wired magazine detailed how Paul was taking over the web. The Washington Post ran the numbers, noting he was more popular on Facebook than his GOP primary rival John McCain, had more friends on MySpace than Mitt Romney, and garnered almost as many views on YouTube as Barack Obama (while also noting Paul’s low polling numbers.) Other outlets also highlighted the mismatch between real world and online popularity—such as the NBC News story, “An also-ran in GOP polls, Paul is huge on Web.”

When it came to online polls, however, Paul would win consistently and by a large margin—something that came to be known as the “Ron Paul Effect.”

CNN’s Jack Cafferty observed Paul’s followers “at any given moment can almost overpower the internet,” something that had a Pavlovian effect on editors, who’d try to include his name wherever possible because it guaranteed a flood of traffic. The momentum continued through 2007, driving record online fundraising and eventually leading to Time magazine giving him the moniker “Candidate 2.0.”

The narrative that grew around Paul’s candidacy was that he was the product of the internet and Web 2.0—a presidential hopeful free from the clutches of establishment media gatekeepers.

Some, however, had doubts about the authenticity of Paul’s momentum.

Users of Reddit and Digg complained that bot activity was pushing Ron Paul stories to the front page, while downvoting anti-Paul comments and submissions (such as reports on his racist newsletters).

A number of editors grew tired of the “Ron Paul Effect,” which they saw as obvious online manipulation. One CNBC editor wrote an open letter to Ron Paul supporters explaining why he was forced to take down an online poll that was being overwhelmed by votes for Paul. Henry Blodget of Business Insider also complained of being flooded with bot activity. And RedState.com instituted a ban on Ron Paul supporters creating new accounts outright, for similar reasons.

The recent news that Jesse Benton [Ron Paul's campaign manager] has been convicted of funneling Russian money to support Donald Trump (who pardoned him for his involvement in nefarious campaign activities during Ron Paul’s 2012 campaign) has presented an opportunity to take a second look at the “Ron Paul Revolution”—and a number of unreported and under-reported facts.

The botnet which sent the spam would later be linked to Russia, after first being traced to Ukraine. When it was taken offline in 2008, The Washington Post reported “unknown individuals in Russia eventually gained control over the botnet,” citing security research firm FireEye, who also noted one of its SMTP servers was found pointing to a Russian state-owned bank.

It turns out not only were Ron Paul’s online fundraisers bolstered by promotional spam emails, they were juiced with foreign donations from numerous stolen credit cards—something that received limited coverage at the time. Benton dismissed this development as merely credit card thieves testing cards—a common tactic—and once again, offering plausible deniability.

[LFC]

About friggin' time. We have to get the U.S. and the rest of Europe on board. It's not like this is an edge case.

France has become the first major western state to publicly back the creation of a special tribunal to try senior Russian officials – potentially including Vladimir Putin – for the crime of aggression in Ukraine.

The French foreign ministry said on Wednesday that it was working with its European partners on the proposal. The statement came after the European Union and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, lent support for the tribunal in a speech on the bloc’s plans for Ukraine.

The defendants at such a tribunal would be those with decision-making power involved in committing the crime of aggression, meaning the transgression of Ukraine’s borders by the Russian military. This would very probably mean just a handful of figures, including Putin as well as other figures such as the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu.

If they were convicted, even in absentia, the sentence would set in stone current relations with Russia by labelling Putin and his team international criminals and make sitting down at the negotiating table nearly impossible.

France’s announcement is a strong indicator that the west is becoming disillusioned with the prospect of negotiations with Russia.

The EU wants a specialised court because Russia has not signed the international criminal court (ICC) treaty, leaving the court in The Hague without jurisdiction over “crimes of aggression” committed by the Russian government. The ICC can judge specific war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine, although Putin and his top ministers retain immunity from prosecution while in office.

Ukraine started campaigning for the creation of a special tribunal in April but faced pushback from its western allies. For months, it secured support only from eastern European states such as Poland and the Baltic countries.

[andydp]

Must a new way to attract recruits.

African former rebels recruited as mercenaries by the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group have been abandoned in Ukraine, a report says

Kremlin-linked Wagner Group recruited mercenaries from the Central African Republic to fight in Ukraine.  Sources told The Daily Beast that the African fighters were left without money, food, or ammunition.  The abandoned fighters are allegedly desperate and have to "steal from civilians" to survive.  Former rebels from the Central African Republic who were recruited by Wagner Group to fight in Ukraine have been left without money, food, or ammunition, according to a report by The Daily Beast.

Around 100 former rebels from the Central African Republic, also known as CAR, were recruited by the shadowy Kremlin-linked private military contractor and sent to the front lines in the Donbas region of Ukraine eight months ago alongside Russian soldiers. They since have now lost contact with their Russian counterparts, two sources told the outlet.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/african-former-rebels-recruited-as-mercenaries-by-the-kremlin-linked-wagner-group-have-been-abandoned-in-ukraine-a-report-says/ar-AA14RbON?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e88ece424bed4b809c3b32ba30457541

Just had a thought:  What if the UKR Army got these guys, fed them, took care of them, refitted them and sent them back to the front against their former employers ?  

[LFC]

Belarus may be getting strong-armed into joining the war. I've read a lot of commentary that Lukashenka is walking a fine line. On the one side the population of Belarus isn't interested in this war and he's already a relatively unpopular leader. On the other he's Putin's poodle and if his leash gets yanked hard enough he'll come to heel.

One interesting viewpoint is that being dragged into the war with Ukraine could end Lukashenka's reign. If he gets tossed, and Putin's military is kept busy in Ukraine, he could potentially lose his last European puppet state. If 20 years or so from now Belarus joined the EU and NATO it would wall Russia off from all of Europe. Looking at Russia's history, and not just Putin's, that seems like a pretty good outcome.

[andydp]

Poor Vlad: the Iranian drones don't work in cold weather and it seems the RuAF isn't doing much better either.  I wouldn't call it decimation, I'd call it getting your face clocked.  

Putin forced to 'significantly reduce' air attacks as Ukraine decimates Russian Air Force

Vladimir Putin has been forced to "significantly reduce" air combat missions due to the "continued high threat from Ukrainian air defences", the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has reported, in what is yet another blow for the Russian autocrat and his forces. Struggling with poor supply routes into Ukraine from Crimea and to the southeast, as well as a force stretched too thinly across the front line, the latest setback for Russia comes at an inopportune time ahead of planned attacks from Ukraine. The Ministry of Defence reported that Russia has now "lost over 60 fixed-wing aircraft" since invading Ukraine on February 24, including two state-of-the-art fight bombers last week. Ukraine's 138th anti-aircraft brigade also took down a Russian Ka-52 elite attack helicopter using the Soviet-developed Buk air defence system on Sunday.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-forced-to-significantly-reduce-air-attacks-as-ukraine-decimates-russian-air-force/ar-AA14V2hV?cvid=f8d4358bebb04e81bd027907a7029f7e&ocid=winp2fptaskbarmouseenter

[andydp]

I'm putting this here, hoping this event may show Russia "blinked".  I doubt it shows a major shift, but you never know.

Brittney Griner Released From Russian Penal Colony in Prisoner Release Deal

WASHINGTON—Women’s basketball star Brittney Griner has been released by Russia from a penal colony in a negotiated prisoner release deal, U.S. officials said, capping months of negotiations between two superpowers whose relations are at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/brittney-griner-released-from-russian-penal-colony-in-prisoner-release-deal/ar-AA1539IL?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d6ef46feb3e34961a62011dffc21a928

[LFC]

It doesn't shock me that an ex-spy has a bailout plan. I wonder how many billions he and his cronies have stashed and where.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and his cronies already have a plan in place to flee the country once things go sideways, a former aide to the Russian president has claimed.

Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, made the astounding claim on Telegram early Wednesday, citing an unnamed source that he said had “insider” information on the whole affair.

The evacuation plan, according to Gallyamov, got underway back in the spring, when it was unofficially dubbed “Noah’s Ark.”

“As the name implies, it’s about a search for new land to go to in case it becomes completely uncomfortable in the homeland. The leader’s entourage has not ruled out that he will lose the war, be stripped of power, and have to urgently evacuate somewhere,” Gallyamov wrote.

Putin’s inner circle first considered a plan to evacuate to China, Gallyamov said, but later thought better of it, fearing the chances of “cooperation” from the Chinese were slim, especially since they despise “losers.” Now, he said, the focus has shifted to either Argentina or Venezuela, with Putin ally Igor Sechin currently overseeing an evacuation plan for the latter country.

The plan is so far along, Gallyamov said, that Sechin’s “right-hand man” at Rosneft “formally resigned” from the oil giant to handle “on-site work.”

Citing two sources close to the presidential administration and a source in Rosneft, the Telegram channel Mozhem Obyasnit also reports that high-ranking officials have already begun buying up real estate and working on getting residency rights in Venezuela. Those lower-ranking in the presidential administration and Russian government are seeking residency in Ecuador, Paraguay, and Argentina, according to that report.

In particular, a source was quoted saying, Russian officials have snatched up property on Venezuela’s Margarita Island, where they are confident they’ll be safe from extradition.

“The island of Margarita in Venezuela is their local Courchevel,” the source was quoted saying, comparing the would-be Kremlin hideout to the famous French Alps ski resort.

Conceding that he had no further details, Gallyamov said the sheer fact of an evacuation plan “is enough to understand” that “when they say ‘everything is going according to plan,’ it’s worth asking which one. They seem to have many more than one plan.”

[LFC]

Erdogan is taking advantage of Russia's f***-ups. He understands that the money to be made locally and as a member of the EU, not being beholden to an unstable nation that's at war with Europe.

[andydp]

This estimate is from the UK Defense Department.  I would tend to believe its fairly accurate.  Note they also estimate UKR losses.

The UK defense chief read out the numbers on Russia's war losses, and they're bleak

After nearly 10 months of war in Ukraine, the UK's defense chief revealed this week a bleak set of figures on Russian military losses.

"We can say that we estimate over 100,000 Russians are either dead, injured, or have deserted," UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Monday as he delivered updates on the war to London's House of Commons.

This figure reflects a similar estimate from top US Gen. Mark Milley, who said in early November that over 100,000 Russian soldiers had been "killed and wounded" since Moscow launched its large-scale invasion on February 24. At the time, he noted that Ukraine's military has "probably" seen similar casualties.

Additionally, Wallace noted Russia has lost 4,500 armored vehicles, 63 fixed-wing aircraft, 70 helicopters, 150 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), 12 naval vessels, and over 600 artillery systems. He did not specify the make and model of each of these weapons systems.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-uk-defense-chief-read-out-the-numbers-on-russia-s-war-losses-and-they-re-bleak/ar-AA15eNnt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=511e53e6a7ed4c87b8b6a7650921fbf0

Tucker's statement about Russia "winning" isn't aging well.

[andydp]

Moving along with the Eistein's Theory of Stupid:

Putin’s Military Nightmare Has Come True

Putin Has Ensured His Neighbors Are Arming Up Thanks to His Ukraine War:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has famously described the dissolution of the Soviet Union as one of the great tragedies of the 20th century, and he has essentially sought to become a modern-day Tsar Peter the Great or Empress Catherine the Great – no doubt hoping history would remember him as Vladimir the Great.

Of course, given how the war is going, that’s not going to happen –  (IRONY ALERT !) not to mention the fact, there already was a Vladimir the Great, who happened to be from Kiev. In fact, instead of rebuilding the Russian Empire, Putin has successfully set his nation on a course to ruin. More importantly, he’s convinced his neighbors of the need to rearm and ensure that they don’t fall under his sphere of influence. The Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have supported Ukraine, while each has sought to acquire new military hardware, including the U.S.-made HIMARS missile systems. Likewise, Poland is on course to become NATO’s largest operator of main battle tanks (MBTs) after the United States. Warsaw has recently concluded deals with Washington to acquire the M1 Abrams and with Seoul to purchase the South Korean-made K2 Black Panther.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-military-nightmare-has-come-true/ar-AA15o8fQ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=01490a74b5fa4567b59d6a95714fc5cf

Ed Comment:  Vlad made the mistake of thinking the west had gotten complacent about his activities.  He speculated he could come over, occupy a soft target and no one would react except with diplomatic "anger".  When Japan attacked the US, Admiral Yamamoto is quoted as saying:  "We have awakened a sleeping giant."  Thanks to Pres Putin, Europe has realized Russia's true intentions.  On an added bonus: Turkey is selling gas direct to Europe thus eliminating (or reducing) that leverage.

[LFC]

An informed opinion on negotiating with Russia.

[andydp]

I wonder how much Pres Trump would LOVE to do this.  Face it: this is why he loves Vlad.

Full List of Russians Who Fell to Their Deaths This Year

Sausage tycoon Pavel Antov was found dead at a hotel in India on Christmas Day, adding to a long list of rich Russians who have died since the war in Ukraine began.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/full-list-of-russians-who-fell-to-their-deaths-this-year/ar-AA15Kalg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9a27b9ab7d224f8fabf7f293f2714291

[andydp]

Based on everything we've been reading we already knew this.  Note these are UKR figures of losses but they're certainly withing range of the UK and other estimates.

Putin’s Got Ukraine Drama: His Military Is ‘Bleeding’ to Death

Ukraine War Update: The new year is approaching fast, but the war in Ukraine looks like it will go on for many more months. On the 308th day of the conflict, the Russian military is focusing on its defense in the east, where a key logistical hub is in the crosshairs of the Ukrainian military.
Meanwhile, the Russian military continues to suffer extremely heavy casualties on the ground. It is the infantry that is suffering the heaviest losses, with an average of around 500 men killed every day, according to the official Ukrainian figures.


Indeed, in the last week alone, the Russian forces have lost approximately 4,000 men—which is the equivalent of almost an entire U.S. Brigade Combat Team.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-got-ukraine-drama-his-military-is-bleeding-to-death/ar-AA15Kt2O?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f66493edbf3843ba9227ae31d48bb707

[andydp]

Sadly, this is bringing the war closer to the Russian people.  Before we go decrying putting a lost of troops in one location, the US lost a unit from one town in PA from a SCUD strike during Desert Storm.  

Russian official: Attack in Donetsk a ‘massive blow’

Ukrainian forces used U.S.-supplied guided rockets to hit a building housing Russian soldiers in an occupied eastern city early on New Year’s Day, both sides said, in one of the deadliest strikes on Moscow’s forces in the 10-month-old war.

The deaths of at least 60 soldiers, and possibly many more, drew immediate and harsh criticism in Russia from supporters of the war, who said that the military was making repeated and costly mistakes, including housing soldiers in dense numbers within striking distance of Ukrainian weapons.

The Russian Defense Ministry said Monday that 63 service members had been killed in the strike in the city, Makiivka, which is in the Donetsk region. Ukraine claimed that “about 400” Russian soldiers had died. Neither figure could be independently verified.



digital.olivesoftware.com/olive/odn/albanytimesunion/default.aspx

[LFC]

Whoa.

This warm weather isn't helping Putin as oil and gas prices remain reasonable and Europe isn't running out of oil and natural gas. So much for his ploy off freezing out Europe to get them to bend to his will. Ditto Ukraine where his missile strikes don't seem to be working as well as he wants. He's now managed to scare the ever lovin' shit out of his biggest customers and driven them towards other energy sources and types. Good job, Vlad. You wanted to leave a clear legacy in Russia? Well mission accomplished, dipshit.

It appears that he got away with an awful lot for a long, long time using threats. Now that he's actually swinging his punches have proven to be less devastating than he believed they'd be.

[andydp]

It appears that he got away with an awful lot for a long, long time using threats. Now that he's actually swinging his punches have proven to be less devastating than he believed they'd be.

Maybe Mao was right: (The USSR) is a paper tiger.

[LFC]

Pootie is unhappy with those who say mean things about him. You know. Like the truth.

Russian authorities on Monday announced parallel criminal probes against a famous actor critical of the war in Ukraine and a philanthropist who supports the Russian opposition, the latest in a months-long, sweeping crackdown on dissent.

Russia’s Investigative Committee said in a statement that its chief Alexander Bastrykin ordered the launch of a criminal case against Artur Smolyaninov, a prominent Russian film and theater actor who left the country after Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine and repeatedly spoke out against the war.

According to the statement, Smolyaninov “made a series of statements directed against Russia in an interview to a Western media outlet.” The Investigative Committee didn’t clarify which of Smolyaninov’s actions constituted a criminal offense and what charges it would bring against him.

Smolyaninov’s most recent interview last week sparked outrage among Kremlin supporters. The actor told the Novaya Gazeta Europe that if he had to fight in the war, he would fight “on the side of Ukraine.” “For me, it is on the side of my brothers who were attacked by my other brothers,” Smolyaninov said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday welcomed a probe against Smolyaninov, noting that it is “important that our relevant (law enforcement) bodies think about these remarks.”

[andydp]

Jan 9, 2023 17:29:20 GMT LFC said:

Pootie is unhappy with those who say mean things about him. You know. Like the truth.

Russian authorities on Monday announced parallel criminal probes against a famous actor critical of the war in Ukraine and a philanthropist who supports the Russian opposition, the latest in a months-long, sweeping crackdown on dissent.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday welcomed a probe against Smolyaninov, noting that it is “important that our relevant (law enforcement) bodies think about these remarks.”

Here's someone else that needs to stay away from tall buildings, staircases, subways and streets.

[LFC]

This is a good explanation of why Russia cannot be allowed to hold Crimea. If they do the West can simply expect to deal with one crisis or another that Russia spins up North Korea style to gain attention and try to get money.

[indy]

This is pretty amazing.

[andydp]

Towards the end of WWII, "You Know Who" appointed Himmler as commander of the Eastern Front.  It was at a time when the German soldier had had enough.  Massive Russian attacks were a daily occurrence, the Soldiers started deserting/retreating despite the "hold at all costs" orders.  Himmler's solution: shoot deserters and hang the bodies along the roads.

This move by Putin is pure desperation.  He's losing and he knows it.

Russia Accused Of 'Killing Its Own Troops' In Effort To 'Maintain Discipline' As Vladimir Putin's Forces Flee Frontlines Of Ukraine War

Russia is reportedly killing its own troops to prevent soldiers from fleeing Ukraine or turning their back on Vladimir Putin’s ongoing “special military operation,” RadarOnline.com has learned.

Comment: I would place some doubt on the accuracy of this article. I haven't found any independent confirmation.  

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-accused-of-killing-its-own-troops-in-effort-to-maintain-discipline-as-vladimir-putin-s-forces-flee-frontlines-of-ukraine-war/ar-AA169ouF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4658bc11d14643979abf4e27bfbf6ba6