Russia

[LFC]

An insider who defected says that Putin has lost his shit.

A Russian officer who worked closely with Vladimir Putin as a captain in the Federal Guard Service has fled the country and defected to the West, warning the world that the Russian leader is no longer “sane” and has become a “war criminal.”

Gleb Karakulov, who made his escape last October while on a trip with Putin to the capital of Kazakhstan, is now calling on both his former colleagues and Russian citizens to “break the silence” and help end the “criminal war” against Ukraine.

In a lengthy interview with The Dossier Center—which says it was able to verify his account of his time providing secure communications for Putin—Karakulov warns that today’s Putin is not the same man he’d first encountered back in 2009.

“Now he has shut himself off from the world with all kinds of barriers, the quarantine, the information vacuum. His take on reality has become distorted. A sane person in the twenty-first century, who looks objectively at everything happening in the world, let alone who can predict developments, at least in the medium term, would not have allowed this war to happen,” Karakulov is quoted saying.

He says that his years working inside the Russian leader’s inner circle helped him see firsthand the scale of lies being told to the country’s people: “It opened my eyes.”

“Thanks to my work in the FGS, I have seen how information is distorted… Sometime around 2014 I saw everything that fundamentally changed my perception. I flew to Crimea in March 2014. I had a chance to talk to people who live there. The referendum had already been held there, and I had the opportunity to ask people if they supported the annexation,” he said, adding that he didn’t see the unanimous support the Kremlin had boasted of.

“That’s when I had my first alarm bells ringing,” he said.

[LFC]

Putin is attacking feminists as a threat to the nation. It's a tactic that could come straight from DeStalinist.

Feminists who dislike Vladimir Putin, support the right to divorce, and choose not to have children are a threat to all of Russia, according to a Putin ally who’s pushing to recognize all feminists as “extremists.”

Oleg Matveychev, a member of Putin’s United Russia party who recently hailed the Russian president for—as he put it—turning the country into an “apex of goodness,” has drafted legislation that would recognize the fight for women’s rights as an “extremist ideology.”

In an interview with Abzats published Tuesday, the State Duma lawmaker described feminists as an enemy of the Kremlin second only to Ukrainians.

“Feminists in the West are all against Putin, against Russia, and for the war. Feminists in Ukraine have actually said that real feminism is for women to serve alongside men against the Russians. Our feminists are simply agents of the West. They are engaged in the destruction of traditional values, their activities are contrary to the president’s decree on the support of traditional values. They are for divorce, childlessness, and abortion. They are acting against the demographic policy of the Russian Federation,” Matveychev said.

He didn’t explain how Putin’s mobilization wiping out a whole generation of the country’s men was in keeping with the demographic policy of the Russian Federation.

[jackd]

No, you don't understand. Putin needs those women producing more soldiers and they're ignoring their patriotic duty.

[andydp]

Another BRILLIANT move by Vlad.  No wonder Pres Trump thinks he's a genius.  One swift move and doubled NATO's border with Mother Russia

Finland doubling NATO’s border with Russia a blow to Putin

BRUSSELS — The blue-and-white Finnish flag rises outside NATO headquarters Tuesday afternoon, making Finland a member and doubling Russia’s border with the world’s biggest security alliance.

The move is a strategic and political blow to President Vladimir Putin, who has long complained about NATO’s expansion toward Russia and partly used that as a justification for his country’s war with Ukraine.

“What we see is that President Putin went to war against Ukraine with a declared aim to get less NATO,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. “He’s getting the exact opposite.”


digital.olivesoftware.com/olive/odn/albanytimesunion/default.aspx

[goldenvalley]

Is there a hold up on Sweden?  It seems like Sweden asked for NATO membership at about the same time as Finland did.

[indy]

Mainly because Turkey (and I think Hungary but don't remember) has/have not approved the application. Every NATO nation must approve of new countries that are joining. They probably have some political beef with something Sweden said (you know, like accidently telling the truth) or did that hurt their delicate feelings.

[LFC]

Apr 5, 2023 2:10:17 GMT goldenvalley said:

Is there a hold up on Sweden?  It seems like Sweden asked for NATO membership at about the same time as Finland did.

Petty whining and butthurtedness.

WHY DOES TURKEY OBJECT TO SWEDISH AND FINNISH MEMBERSHIP?

Turkey says Sweden, in particular, harbours what Ankara says are militants from the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984.

The PKK is designated a terrorist group in Turkey, Sweden, the United States and Europe.

Turkey wants Stockholm and Helsinki to take a tougher line against the PKK and another group it blames for a 2016 coup attempt.

In Madrid, Finland and Sweden agreed to work harder to fight terrorism, including intensifying work on the extradition and deportation of suspected militants.

But Sweden's courts have blocked some expulsions.

Tensions between Sweden and Turkey have also been heightened by protests in Stockholm which Ankara says are hate crimes, but are covered by Swedish free-speech laws.

"Sweden has addressed many of Turkey's concerns and will continue to implement this trilateral memorandum ... but it is clear right now that's not enough," said Paul Levin, director at the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.


DOES TURKEY HAVE ANY OTHER GOALS IN BLOCKING ACCESSION?

Elections take place in Turkey in May. Some commentators see Erdogan's stance on NATO as an attempt to divert voters' attention from a cost-of-living crisis and to project an image as an international statesman.

Other commentators say he may want to use NATO ratification as part of a deal with the United States. Ties with Washington are strained by Turkey's conflict with Syrian Kurdish militants who have U.S. support in the fight against Islamic State.

Turkey also wants to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States, but faces objections from some members of Congress.

Diplomats, analysts and opposition politicians said Erdogan had been energised by two incidents in Sweden - the burning of a copy of the Muslim holy book, the Koran, and the stringing of an effigy of the Turkish from a lamppost.

[LFC]

Putin is bleeding away the future of the Russian economy.

The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over.

As the war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government revenue is being squeezed and its economy has shifted to a lower-growth trajectory, likely for the long term.

The country’s biggest exports, gas and oil, have lost major customers. Government finances are strained. The ruble is down over 20% since November against the dollar. The labor force has shrunk as young people are sent to the front or flee the country over fears of being drafted. Uncertainty has curbed business investment.

“Russia’s economy is entering a long-term regression,” predicted Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who left the country shortly after the invasion.

There is no sign the economic difficulties are bad enough to pose a short-term threat to Russia’s ability to wage war. But state revenue shortfalls suggest an intensifying dilemma over how to reconcile ballooning military expenditures with the subsidies and social spending that have helped President Vladimir Putin shield civilians from hardship.

Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska warned this month that Russia is running out of cash. “There will be no money next year, we need foreign investors,” the raw-materials magnate said at an economic conference.

Having largely lost its European market next door, and with other Western investors pulling out, Moscow is becoming ever more reliant on China, threatening to realize long-simmering fears in Moscow of becoming an economic colony of its dominant southern neighbor.

“Despite Russia’s resilience in the short term, the long-term picture is bleak: Moscow will be much more inward-looking and overly dependent on China,” said Maria Shagina, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank in London.

They may end up being a semi-vassal state of China. Funny how that's what they want from so many other nations and Putin may end up putting them in that position.

[andydp]

For those that don't know, just about every circuit board used in military equipment from radios to drones to ICBMs comes with a self destruct feature.  If you try to open the compartments without the proper tools or codes they'll fry and become useless.

While the Russians may get some intel from the basic outline of the circuits and wiring, they won't get the actual programming.  The drone was in salt water before being salvaged causing further degradation the circuits.

Russia gains 'key intelligence' after pulling up wreckage of US Reaper drone


Russia has pulled up wreckage of a US drone downed by and Su-27 from the depths of the Black Sea, claiming its experts have gained key intelligence, says a new report. The destruction of the hi-tech American MQ-9 Reaper on 14 March in international airspace flying off annexed Crimea caused a major diplomatic incident last month.

Fixed it !!

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gains-key-intelligence-after-salvaging-remains-of-downed-us-drone/ar-AA19xBgK#:~:text=Russia%20may%20have%20gained%20some%20key%20intelligence%20after,Crimea%20caused%20a%20major%20diplomatic%20incident%20last%20month.

[LFC]

I remember how Russian bureaucrats managed to keep the ruble propped up by pulling all manner of financial maneuvers. Now that a year has passed it appears that they may be running out of tricks.

[LFC]

Russia has pulled up wreckage of a US drone downed by and Su-27 from the depths of the Black Sea, claiming its experts have gained key intelligence, says a new report.

Sounds like it's time to send in a U.S. Naval presence to protect our nation's assets. IIRC Turkey already gave the green light. Huge bonus is keeping Ukrainian grain exports out from under Putin's control

[AnBr]

Apr 7, 2023 2:30:22 GMT andydp said:

For those that don't know, just about every circuit board used in military equipment from radios to drones to ICBMs comes with a self destruct feature.  If you try to open the compartments without the proper tools or codes they'll fry and become useless.

While the Russians may get some intel from the basic outline of the circuits and wiring, they won't get the actual programming.  The drone was in salt water before being salvaged causing further degradation the circuits.

Russia gains 'key intelligence' after pulling up wreckage of US Reaper drone


Russia has pulled up wreckage of a US drone downed by and Su-27 from the depths of the Black Sea, claiming its experts have gained key intelligence, says a new report. The destruction of the hi-tech American MQ-9 Reaper on 14 March in international airspace flying off annexed Crimea caused a major diplomatic incident last month.

I take it that you linked to the wrong Tweet.

[andydp]

Apr 8, 2023 15:00:19 GMT AnBr said:

Apr 7, 2023 2:30:22 GMT andydp said:

For those that don't know, just about every circuit board used in military equipment from radios to drones to ICBMs comes with a self destruct feature.  If you try to open the compartments without the proper tools or codes they'll fry and become useless.

While the Russians may get some intel from the basic outline of the circuits and wiring, they won't get the actual programming.  The drone was in salt water before being salvaged causing further degradation the circuits.

Russia gains 'key intelligence' after pulling up wreckage of US Reaper drone


Russia has pulled up wreckage of a US drone downed by and Su-27 from the depths of the Black Sea, claiming its experts have gained key intelligence, says a new report. The destruction of the hi-tech American MQ-9 Reaper on 14 March in international airspace flying off annexed Crimea caused a major diplomatic incident last month.

See below

Fixed it !!


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-gains-key-intelligence-after-salvaging-remains-of-downed-us-drone/ar-AA19xBgK#:~:text=Russia%20may%20have%20gained%20some%20key%20intelligence%20after,Crimea%20caused%20a%20major%20diplomatic%20incident%20last%20month.

[andydp]

We're seeing Putin "blink".  Unfortunately he's not blinking enough.  

Putin Has a Plan to Get Out Of His ‘Unwinnable’ Ukraine War

Russia is desperate to find a gimmicky definition of “victory” to end what has become a quagmire in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion expecting a quick victory, akin to his Crimea land grab in 2014. A much-hyped Russian military modernization probably fed his belief this was achievable.
 
<SNIP>  (Stop me if you've heard the following before)

So the newest idea is to simply declare victory around the current line of control — the front line between the two militaries. Ideally, this would place the moral onus of continuing the war on the Ukrainians. Russia would declare war over, its goals met. It would offer to withdraw some of its forces in return for Ukrainian recognition of its conquests.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-has-a-plan-to-get-out-of-his-unwinnable-ukraine-war/ar-AA1a3Ayc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9a09eb284e6a436aacf25b4d0282c05c&ei=52

[LFC]

Ukraine is not going to let that happen. First demand will be that Russia turn over the thousands of war criminals who murdered, raped, and assaulted so many Ukrainian civilians which puts the "moral onus" right back on Russia. It's pretty easy to take the moral high ground by just repeating "War crimes! War crimes! War crimes!" when it's overwhelmingly true.

[pnwguy]

Sounds like "Peace with honor". Putin is channeling Richard Nixon.

[andydp]

I hate to harp on the "blatant incompetence" part, but after prepping for years against the "horde's" invasion of Europe, it does me good to see they're getting flight instructions from the Three Stooges.  (I have italicized a term I'd never seen before.  Can you guess what it is ?)

A Russian warplane bombed one of Russia's own border cities, adding to the country's stack of embarrassing wartime blunders


A Russian jet accidentally bombed the Russian border city of Belgorod on Thursday evening, said Moscow's defense ministry.

Surveillance footage of the explosion was uploaded to Telegram by the Russian news outlet RBC. It shows a bright flash before a section of the street erupts in flames, and debris is thrown into the air.

"During the flight of the Su-34 aircraft of the Aerospace Forces over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred," the ministry told the state media outlet TASS.

Two women were injured in the blast, which left a 60-foot-wide crater in the city center and damaged four apartments, Vyacheslav Gladkov, Belgorod's governor, wrote on Telegram.


www.businessinsider.com/russian-warplane-bombs-russian-city-belgorod-by-mistake-2023-4

[goldenvalley]

Apr 21, 2023 11:30:49 GMT andydp said:

I hate to harp on the "blatant incompetence" part, but after prepping for years against the "horde's" invasion of Europe, it does me good to see they're getting flight instructions from the Three Stooges.  (I have italicized a term I'd never seen before.  Can you guess what it is ?)

A Russian warplane bombed one of Russia's own border cities, adding to the country's stack of embarrassing wartime blunders


A Russian jet accidentally bombed the Russian border city of Belgorod on Thursday evening, said Moscow's defense ministry.

Surveillance footage of the explosion was uploaded to Telegram by the Russian news outlet RBC. It shows a bright flash before a section of the street erupts in flames, and debris is thrown into the air.

"During the flight of the Su-34 aircraft of the Aerospace Forces over the city of Belgorod, an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition occurred," the ministry told the state media outlet TASS.

Two women were injured in the blast, which left a 60-foot-wide crater in the city center and damaged four apartments, Vyacheslav Gladkov, Belgorod's governor, wrote on Telegram.


www.businessinsider.com/russian-warplane-bombs-russian-city-belgorod-by-mistake-2023-4

If only that the earth were marked with borders like the maps are.  There wouldn't be any mistakes like this happening. 

[LFC]

It's interesting that they admit it since it would be more of an embarrassment if the bombing had been achieved by Ukraine.

[goldenvalley]

Apr 21, 2023 17:55:19 GMT LFC said:

It's interesting that they admit it since it would be more of an embarrassment if the bombing had been achieved by Ukraine.

Maybe it's a "don't worry whoever is left in that town...it's not the Ukrainians coming into your town...just a little mistake on our part".  Russia doesn't need any more refugees trying to get to Moscow or wherever refugees go there.

[andydp]

Once again, we see the Russian Army is not doing as well as Pres Putin dreamed of.  The big offensive they had planned petered out.  The current line of thought is the UKR is planning a big spring offensive once the ground solidifies after the Spring thaw.  Remember, historically the Russians kept their roads muddy and unimproved so it would bog down any attacker and limit operations to good weather months.  In this case the Russians didn't realize muddy roads won't work for them either.

There's more in the article.  I'm not a "fan" of casualty figures from one side or the other.  Equipment losses are easy to confirm, personnel lost is not.  A lot of it tends to be propaganda to bolster morale on either side. 

The latest news seems like a rerun of past reports.

Putin’s Nightmare Comes True: Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Falling Apart

The Russian campaign in Ukraine is falling apart.

In January, the Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive all across the Donbas. Their goal was to push back the Ukrainian forces and achieve an operational breakthrough. They have failed. And in the process, they have lost almost 80,000 men killed or wounded.

Over 400 days into the war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military continues to prepare for its large-scale counter-offensive. Ukrainian officials have suggested that the offensive will take place sometime in the next few weeks—likely at the end of May or the start of June.

The Russian military and Wagner Group private military company have lost a good portion of their best troops. Elite mechanized formations, Spetsnaz special operations units, marines, and VDV paratroopers have all suffered great casualties in what has become the deadliest conventional war on European soil since the end of World War Two.

Conditions on the ground are still not ideal for large-scale mechanized warfare. The ground continues to be soft after the thawing of the winter snow, and mud makes off-road driving precarious.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-nightmare-comes-true-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-is-falling-apart/ar-AA1acKXn?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=116aca653ba6484e8543f4f4e0342f1b&ei=20

[andydp]

Nothing like watching them implode.

Russian Soldiers and Wagner Mercenaries Start Fighting Each Other: Report

A shoot-out allegedly occurred between Russian soldiers and Wagner Group mercenaries over which side is to blame for Russia's failures amid the invasion of Ukraine, military authorities from Kyiv said on Sunday.

"With no significant achievements on the battlefield, the Russian Armed Forces and 'Wagner Group' PMC are increasingly attempting to find someone to blame for the defeats," the update reads. "They shift the responsibility for their own tactical miscalculations and losses suffered onto each other. As a result, a fight between Russian Armed Forces and PMC Wagner mercenaries broke out in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska (Luhansk oblast) recently."


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-and-wagner-mercenaries-start-fighting-each-other-report/ar-AA1aeKiK

[goldenvalley]

Apr 24, 2023 12:12:37 GMT andydp said:

Nothing like watching them implode.

Russian Soldiers and Wagner Mercenaries Start Fighting Each Other: Report

A shoot-out allegedly occurred between Russian soldiers and Wagner Group mercenaries over which side is to blame for Russia's failures amid the invasion of Ukraine, military authorities from Kyiv said on Sunday.

"With no significant achievements on the battlefield, the Russian Armed Forces and 'Wagner Group' PMC are increasingly attempting to find someone to blame for the defeats," the update reads. "They shift the responsibility for their own tactical miscalculations and losses suffered onto each other. As a result, a fight between Russian Armed Forces and PMC Wagner mercenaries broke out in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska (Luhansk oblast) recently."


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-and-wagner-mercenaries-start-fighting-each-other-report/ar-AA1aeKiK

The problem for Russia and the rest of the world (for different reasons) is that the Wagner mercenaries can leave Ukraine (bad for Russia) and get hired to make trouble in other parts of the world.

[andydp]

Apr 24, 2023 17:55:39 GMT goldenvalley said:

Apr 24, 2023 12:12:37 GMT andydp said:

The problem for Russia and the rest of the world (for different reasons) is that the Wagner mercenaries can leave Ukraine (bad for Russia) and get hired to make trouble in other parts of the world.

If I remember right, they're already in some parts of Africa.  To me, the military prowess of mercenaries is a big unknown.  Remember, they go to the highest bidder.  

[goldenvalley]

Apr 24, 2023 18:28:24 GMT andydp said:

Apr 24, 2023 17:55:39 GMT goldenvalley said:

The problem for Russia and the rest of the world (for different reasons) is that the Wagner mercenaries can leave Ukraine (bad for Russia) and get hired to make trouble in other parts of the world.

If I remember right, they're already in some parts of Africa.  To me, the military prowess of mercenaries is a big unknown.  Remember, they go to the highest bidder.  

Oh yeah...but even those who are bad at the military stuff still create issues for the country in which they operate and the country's allies and friends.  Mercenaries who are poor at war still shoot up people and buildings etc...