andydp
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Post by andydp on Apr 25, 2023 16:05:25 GMT
I know we like to make fun of Vlad's problems, But Vlad isn't feeling any of this. His troops are. As a Soldier I feel sorry for them stuck with inferior everything from helmets to leaders. Russian Troops Too 'Exhausted' to Defend Front Line: ISWAn assessment released Sunday from a prominent United States-based think tank (ISW: Institute for the Study of War) described Russian troops in Ukraine as too "disorganized" and "exhausted" to maintain crucial front line positions. Russian troops are currently operating in seven areas, according to the think tank: Avdiivka-Donetsk; Bakhmut; Kupiansk; Kherson Oblast; Luhansk region; the western part of Donetsk Oblast/eastern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast; and the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region. "The generally exhausted condition of troops and the apparently disorganized and fragmented deployment pattern in some areas will likely pose significant obstacles to Russia's prospects for defending critical sectors of the front line," the ISW said. The ISW also noted that it does not assume any Russian units or formations are currently at full capacity. "I t is highly likely that the majority of Russian elements throughout Ukraine are substantially below full strength due to losses taken during previous phases of the war," the ISW said.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-too-exhausted-to-defend-front-line-isw/ar-AA1ahlWf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fac451b8a19142db917c4d1c07a36ede&ei=12
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Russia
May 1, 2023 12:16:29 GMT
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Post by andydp on May 1, 2023 12:16:29 GMT
In the world of competent military, this is called "defense in depth". Russia is building defenses deep inside its own territory, fearing a sweeping Ukrainian counterattack: UK intelRussia is building defenses hundreds of miles away from its borders with Ukraine, fearing a counteroffensive so sweeping it could push into Russian territory, according to British intelligence. The UK Ministry of Defence posted an update on Twitter Monday morning, noting the presence of trench networks "well inside internationally recognised Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions." sports.yahoo.com/russia-building-defenses-deep-inside-100621371.htmlPure conjecture part: The fact they're being allowed to build fortifications in Russian territory indicates an acceptance of reality at the highest level (Putin). The Russian advance isn't going to happen.
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Russia
May 1, 2023 14:41:47 GMT
Post by goldenvalley on May 1, 2023 14:41:47 GMT
In the world of competent military, this is called "defense in depth". Russia is building defenses deep inside its own territory, fearing a sweeping Ukrainian counterattack: UK intelRussia is building defenses hundreds of miles away from its borders with Ukraine, fearing a counteroffensive so sweeping it could push into Russian territory, according to British intelligence. The UK Ministry of Defence posted an update on Twitter Monday morning, noting the presence of trench networks "well inside internationally recognised Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions." sports.yahoo.com/russia-building-defenses-deep-inside-100621371.htmlPure conjecture part: The fact they're being allowed to build fortifications in Russian territory indicates an acceptance of reality at the highest level (Putin). The Russian advance isn't going to happen. If Putin thinks there will be an attack within Russia why doesn't he pull out of Ukraine? That's cheaper than building fortifications and would quite probably end the need to spend men and munitions in Ukraine. I am assuming that Ukraine just wants Russia out of the country and would turn to rebuilding rather than pursuing the Russians into Russia. They don't have enough of anything to pursue retribution effectively and I doubt NATO and the Western countries will contribute anything towards such a mission.
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Russia
May 1, 2023 14:42:32 GMT
Post by indy on May 1, 2023 14:42:32 GMT
Somebody once quipped that the only thing the Russian army can do well is dig trenches.
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Russia
May 1, 2023 14:45:03 GMT
Post by indy on May 1, 2023 14:45:03 GMT
In the world of competent military, this is called "defense in depth". Russia is building defenses deep inside its own territory, fearing a sweeping Ukrainian counterattack: UK intelRussia is building defenses hundreds of miles away from its borders with Ukraine, fearing a counteroffensive so sweeping it could push into Russian territory, according to British intelligence. The UK Ministry of Defence posted an update on Twitter Monday morning, noting the presence of trench networks "well inside internationally recognised Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions." sports.yahoo.com/russia-building-defenses-deep-inside-100621371.htmlPure conjecture part: The fact they're being allowed to build fortifications in Russian territory indicates an acceptance of reality at the highest level (Putin). The Russian advance isn't going to happen. If Putin thinks there will be an attack within Russia why doesn't he pull out of Ukraine? That's cheaper than building fortifications and would quite probably end the need to spend men and munitions in Ukraine. I am assuming that Ukraine just wants Russia out of the country and would turn to rebuilding rather than pursuing the Russians into Russia. They don't have enough of anything to pursue retribution effectively and I doubt NATO and the Western countries will contribute anything towards such a mission.
Because pulling out of Ukraine would be a quick death for Putin or at least I think so. Perhaps Putin thinks so as well.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Russia
May 2, 2023 21:01:37 GMT
Post by andydp on May 2, 2023 21:01:37 GMT
Putin is spinning stuff faster than Rumpelstiltskin. Putin Grooms Russians for Defeat in Leaked Crisis ‘Manual’After spending the last year reassuring Russians that victory is inevitable in the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin is now frantically working to lower expectations—and rolling out a contingency plan to lessen the impact of a humiliating defeat. A new manual prepared by Russia’s presidential administration and distributed to the Kremlin’s army of propagandists contains some surprising instructions: Do not “underestimate” Ukraine’s impending counter-offensive and do not spread the idea that Kyiv is somehow “not ready” for it. <SNIP> But perhaps more importantly, the sources explained, if the Ukrainian military manages to take back territories and claim battlefield victories “with the help of weapons from the U.S. and Europe,” Russia’s losses will be understandable—after all, they were up against the “entire West.”<BIG SNIP> The Kremlin’s new guidelines are a stunning reversal from just a year ago, when propagandists were still pushing the idea that Russia would soon be reborn as a mighty superpower taking control of huge swathes of Ukraine. www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-grooms-russians-for-defeat-in-leaked-crisis-manual/ar-AA1aDCv8?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=00277ea5e998495f83654ad4b16d3b1b&ei=75
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andydp
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Russia
May 3, 2023 11:09:02 GMT
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Post by andydp on May 3, 2023 11:09:02 GMT
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Russia
May 3, 2023 18:10:13 GMT
Post by LFC on May 3, 2023 18:10:13 GMT
A few days ago this was revealed. This is a specialized submarine rescue vessel equipped with a mini-sub, so the perfect craft for accessing an underwater target.
Despite the fact-free and inane babblings of one Seymour Hersh, the evidence is mounting that Russia blew the pipelines, likely to stop sending gas without technically (or at least obviously) violating their contract. Their motive? Well official Russian propaganda announced many times how Europe would freeze without their gas so they needed to stay out of Ukraine. It was likely either a pressure campaign or a punishment.
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Russia
May 3, 2023 19:57:37 GMT
Post by goldenvalley on May 3, 2023 19:57:37 GMT
A few days ago this was revealed. This is a specialized submarine rescue vessel equipped with a mini-sub, so the perfect craft for accessing an underwater target.
Despite the fact-free and inane babblings of one Seymour Hersh, the evidence is mounting that Russia blew the pipelines, likely to stop sending gas without technically (or at least obviously) violating their contract. Their motive? Well official Russian propaganda announced many times how Europe would freeze without their gas so they needed to stay out of Ukraine. It was likely either a pressure campaign or a punishment.
We're not experts but I suspect we at TRS thought the Russians were probably behind this. Who had the most to gain in terms of forcing the prices up and propaganda to discourage the Western democracies from supporting Ukraine?
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andydp
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Russia
May 4, 2023 13:57:06 GMT
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Post by andydp on May 4, 2023 13:57:06 GMT
In reference to pipeline sabotage: are there figures how the Western Europe fared in the winter with the loss of Russian Gas ?
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Russia
May 5, 2023 11:14:34 GMT
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Post by indy on May 5, 2023 11:14:34 GMT
They have diversified away from Russian gas. At the start of the conflict the EU imported roughly 50% of their natural gas from Russia. Today it is roughly 10%. I think Norway and the US are the big winners, particularly Norway which now supplies around 25% of the EU usage. The EU paid for it, as prices were pretty high for a while, but have now dropped significantly. You can see price action here: ycharts.com/indicators/europe_natural_gas_price
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andydp
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Russia
May 5, 2023 12:15:34 GMT
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Post by andydp on May 5, 2023 12:15:34 GMT
They have diversified away from Russian gas. At the start of the conflict the EU imported roughly 50% of their natural gas from Russia. Today it is roughly 10%. I think Norway and the US are the big winners, particularly Norway which now supplies around 25% of the EU usage. The EU paid for it, as prices were pretty high for a while, but have now dropped significantly. You can see price action here: ycharts.com/indicators/europe_natural_gas_priceThis is what ”genius” looks like
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AnBr
Associate Professor
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Russia
May 5, 2023 13:54:08 GMT
Post by AnBr on May 5, 2023 13:54:08 GMT
This is what”genius” looks like Hey Vlad! Do ya hear that flushing sound?
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Post by LFC on May 5, 2023 17:42:46 GMT
This is what ”genius” looks like There's a spoof Twitter account called Darth Putin. They often report on some awful outcome for Vlad, like Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and finish off with "I remain a stable genius."
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andydp
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Russia
May 5, 2023 17:50:47 GMT
Post by andydp on May 5, 2023 17:50:47 GMT
This is what ”genius” looks like There's a spoof Twitter account called Darth Putin. They often report on some awful outcome for Vlad, like Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and finish off with "I remain a stable genius." I've seen the stuff before.
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Russia
May 5, 2023 18:03:10 GMT
Post by goldenvalley on May 5, 2023 18:03:10 GMT
NYT has an interesting story about the Wagner (mercenary) Group. The boss seems unhappy with the Russian military. Lots of nuance and skullduggery probably going on. The date of threatened withdrawal is the day after the May 9 Victory Day celebrations.
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Russia
May 11, 2023 14:28:55 GMT
Post by LFC on May 11, 2023 14:28:55 GMT
Lord God Putin, leading his nation into poverty.
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pnwguy
Associate Professor
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Post by pnwguy on May 11, 2023 15:53:54 GMT
Lord God Putin, leading his nation into poverty. The solution will be as it has for a century. Pass the vodka. That's the Russian production system that matters most. Too bad our own DrDredel has been silent for so long. I'd love to have his perspective on the war and the hollowing out of his former homeland.
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andydp
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Russia
May 15, 2023 15:20:10 GMT
Post by andydp on May 15, 2023 15:20:10 GMT
It's almost like the entire world saw this coming except... Russia retreats from Bakhmut: Wagner chief accuses army of ‘giving up’Russia has admitted it was forced to retreat from parts of Bakhmut with mercenary group Wagner accusing troops of 'giving up' territory. Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said the Ukrainians had seized high ground overlooking the town and opened the main highway leading in from the west. 'The loss of the Berkhivka reservoir - the loss of this territory they gave up - that's 5 sq km, just today,' he said on Friday. Responding to Moscow's claim that troops had changed their position for strategic reasons, Prigozhin stressed that the move had been a retreat 'and not a regrouping'. metro.co.uk/2023/05/13/russia-admits-retreat-in-bakhmut-as-wagner-accuses-army-of-giving-up-18777571/
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Russia
May 15, 2023 15:27:27 GMT
Post by goldenvalley on May 15, 2023 15:27:27 GMT
It's almost like the entire world saw this coming except... Russia retreats from Bakhmut: Wagner chief accuses army of ‘giving up’Russia has admitted it was forced to retreat from parts of Bakhmut with mercenary group Wagner accusing troops of 'giving up' territory. Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said the Ukrainians had seized high ground overlooking the town and opened the main highway leading in from the west. 'The loss of the Berkhivka reservoir - the loss of this territory they gave up - that's 5 sq km, just today,' he said on Friday. Responding to Moscow's claim that troops had changed their position for strategic reasons, Prigozhin stressed that the move had been a retreat 'and not a regrouping'. metro.co.uk/2023/05/13/russia-admits-retreat-in-bakhmut-as-wagner-accuses-army-of-giving-up-18777571/I'm no military person but a retreat is strategic isn't it? To keep from getting further slaughtered on the field?
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andydp
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Russia
May 15, 2023 16:17:10 GMT
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Post by andydp on May 15, 2023 16:17:10 GMT
It’s heavily dependent on the situation.
If you leave during an attack you would need to set up a rear guard action to keep the attackers back. Then you move to your new pre built defensive positions. A tactical move made with units providing supporting fires. You need the rearguard actions so your reposition does not turn into a rout.
Moving back to a better position during a lull is a strategic move. The article says the UKR has occupied higher ground. In that case you need to GTFO.** Also: the RUS army has not shown the capability to coordinate anything as complex.
** Get The F Out.
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Post by goldenvalley on May 15, 2023 16:47:44 GMT
Didn't know that was a military phrase...but I have a 20 something son so I think it's just part of the language now. Thanks for the lesson on retreats...hadn't thought about them in that way.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Russia
May 15, 2023 19:41:20 GMT
Post by andydp on May 15, 2023 19:41:20 GMT
Didn't know that was a military phrase...but I have a 20 something son so I think it's just part of the language now. Thanks for the lesson on retreats...hadn't thought about them in that way. "Get outta Dodge" is a favorite. One I heard in College ROTC, but never in the field: "FUJIMO" "FU Jack, I'm moving on." No idea what the new phrases are. I'm willing to bet they won't be much different.
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jackd
Assistant Professor
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Post by jackd on May 15, 2023 21:44:34 GMT
In Monty Python and the Holy Grail, it was "Run away!... run away!"
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
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Post by andydp on May 15, 2023 22:40:43 GMT
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