Russia

[indy]

Personally, I don't think the attack on Moscow will succeed (even a little although stranger things have happened) but if Wagner holds on to the southern military district, the consequences could be major for Ukraine.

[LFC]

[LFC]

Jun 24, 2023 11:04:54 GMT indy said:

Personally, I don't think the attack on Moscow will succeed (even a little although stranger things have happened) but if Wagner holds on to the southern military district, the consequences could be major for Ukraine.

I don't think Prigozhin actually expects to attack and take Moscow, unless much of the regular military decides to come with him. (There are reports that some actually have.) I think he realized he was f***ed, that Shoigu was going to to nail him one way or the other, and made a desperate attempt for leverage. He's now got quite a bit and seems to be pushing for more.

If, however, additional Russian regular military units join him, all bets are off. What a shit show. Please pass the popcorn.

[LFC]

I mentioned Prigozhin looking for leverage. THIS is leverage.

[LFC]

[LFC]

Darth Putin is on fire.

[goldenvalley]

This sort of a popcorn event. Just sitting back to see how a mercenary army takes on regular military and destroys civilians and civilian infrastructure in the process. I wonder if Russian civilians have any idea what's going on.

[indy]

It may be that Ukraine is attempting to take advantage of the situation:

[pnwguy]

Jun 24, 2023 15:45:09 GMT LFC said:

Darth Putin is on fire.

I especially like the 4th one there and should steal it for my signature line:

The dildo of consequences seldom arrives lubed

Perhaps Dumpster will find this out in 2024.

[andydp]

Jun 24, 2023 11:02:15 GMT indy said:

Not smart.
Destroying supplies is ok if the enemy will be using it the next day. If you plan on defending and retaking the assets then you don’t want to destroy them, you’ll need them for the counterattack.
To make it hard on the enemy, you could damage the pumps and distribution systems, leaving the assets available with minimal delay.

[indy]

Well, don't know what this was all about (money in some way probably) but it appears to be over. Regardless, not a good look for Putin who now appears to be the second most dangerous mobster in Russia.

[andydp]

Jun 25, 2023 10:31:00 GMT indy said:

Well, don't know what this was all about (money in some way probably) but it appears to be over. Regardless, not a good look for Putin who now appears to be the second most dangerous mobster in Russia.

Fox has found the culprit !!!  Added fun: find the "weasel words"

JUST IN: Fox News Host Wildly Accuses US Government of — Orchestrating Attempted Coup in Russia?

Fox & Friends Saturday co-host Rachel Campos-Duffy repeatedly accused the United States of possibly orchestrating the unfolding coup in Russia.

On Friday into Saturday morning, chaos erupted in Russia as the Wagner paramilitary group headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin began to stage what is being called an armed insurrection at this point, claiming control of two Russian cities and calling into question Vladimir Putin’s control of regular Russian military forces. The Wagner forces are heading toward Moscow.

On this week’s edition of Fox & Friends Saturday, co-hosts Pete Hegseth, Rachel Campos-Duffy, and Will Cain interviewed author Rebeka Koffler, and later K.T. McFarland, about the unfolding situation. Both guests agreed with Campos-Duffy’s speculation that the U.S. could be behind the coup attempt:

www.mediaite.com/news/just-in-fox-news-host-wildly-accuses-us-government-of-orchestrating-attempted-coup-in-russia/

Not wanting to feel left out...

Marjorie Taylor Greene questions whether the US is behind 'coup …

www.rawstory.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-conspiracy-russia

Hours after a Fox News host tossed out an evidence-free conspiracy theory that perhaps the U.S., NATO, or both were behind the apparent coup unfolding in Russia, …

[pnwguy]

Of course, if there is an increase in mosquitos, or a lake fish kill, or more pollen in the air, MTG would get on the House floor to blame the Biden Crime Family Administration on it, with clips of it on her next fundraising outreach.

[goldenvalley]

Tom Nichols at The Atlantic opinion piece:

Nonetheless, this bizarre episode is not a win for Putin. The Russian dictator has been visibly wounded, and he will now bear the permanent scar of political vulnerability. Instead of looking like a decisive autocrat (or even just a mob boss in command of his crew), Putin left Moscow after issuing a short video in which he was visibly angry and off his usual self-assured game. Putin reportedly worries a great deal about being assassinated, and so perhaps he wanted to hunker down until he had more clarity about who might be in league with Prigozhin. But whatever the reason, he vowed to deal with Prigozhin decisively and then blew town, probably to his retreat at Valdai, in a move that looked weak and disorganized.

Bringing in President Aleksandr Lukashenko as a broker at first seemed an odd choice on Putin’s part, but it makes a bit more sense in light of the supposed deal. The Belarusian autocrat could personally vouch for Prigozhin’s safe passage; Lukashenko has no connections in Moscow that are more important than Putin; he does not live or work in the Kremlin and so he was a secure choice to carry out Putin’s terms; he owes Putin his continued rule and has no reason to betray him. Also, sending in Lukashenko was something of a power move: Putin is a former intelligence officer, and in that world, Prigozhin is merely a scummy convict. The two men were friendly before this, but they were not equals. It would have been a huge loss of face for the president of a great power to negotiate with his former chef in person.

Prigozhin gets to stay alive, at least for the moment, but his life as he knew it (and maybe in any sense) is over. Putin, however, is now politically weaker than ever. The once unchallengeable czar is no longer invincible. The master of the Kremlin had to make a deal with a convict—again, in Putin’s culture, among the lowest of the low—just to avert the shock and embarrassment of an armed march into the Russian capital while other Russians are fighting on the front lines in Ukraine.

Prigozhin drew blood and then walked away from a man who never, ever lets such a personal offense go unavenged. But Putin may have had no choice, which is yet another sign of his precarious situation. All of the options were terrifying: Ordering the Russian military to attack armed Russian men would have been a huge risk, especially because those men (and their hatred of the bureaucrats at the Defense Ministry) have at least some support among Russia’s officers and political elites. Killing Prigozhin outright was also a high-risk proposition; with their leader dead and the Russian military closing in, the Wagnerites might have decided to fight to the death.

This wound to Putin’s power goes deep, but how deep is difficult to gauge for now, especially because we do not know whether Shoigu or Gerasimov still have their jobs. And although the rebellion has taken Wagner off the field in Ukraine, Putin may still seek to cover this ignominious moment by escalating Russia’s brutality there. But two things appear certain. First, Putin has suffered a huge political blow, and he has survived by making deals with both Prigozhin and his own colleagues in the Kremlin who are, by any definition, a humiliation. And second, Yevgeny Prigozhin has changed the Russian political environment surrounding Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Former ambassador to Russia McFaul's views...gotta read the subsequent thread to get the full view:

[goldenvalley]

[AnBr]

Anti-Putin Forces Threaten Attack Inside Russia

The commander of the Freedom of Russia Legion says his fighters are planning another cross-border raid into Russia and are seeking to capitalize on disarray inside the Kremlin following the mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

“There will be a further surprise in the next month or so,” Caesar, a spokesperson for the anti-Putin paramilitary group, said in an interview with the Observer in Kyiv. “It will be our third operation. After that there will be a fourth, and fifth. We have ambitious plans. We want to free all our territory.”

The legion, consisting of a few hundred Russian military volunteers, carried out attacks in May and early June. It occupied border villages near the Russian city of Belgorod, skirmished with the Russian army, and took 10 Russian soldiers captive. Two members of the anti-Kremlin militia were killed, Caesar said.

He described the recent incursion near the town of Shebekino as a “local raid and reconnaissance operation”. Caesar, who moved to Ukraine when Moscow’s full-scale invasion began, said he packed his Russian passport. “The border guards ran away. There was no one to show it to,” he joked.

A former fitness coach from Sochi and St Petersburg, Caesar’s real name is Maximillian Andronnikov. Critics have ridiculed the legion as a tinpot PR project run by Ukraine’s capable military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. Russian state media has dubbed the 49-year-old Caesar an extremist and a Nazi. Prosecutors have charged him with crimes including treason to the motherland.

He acknowledged his militia could only function with Ukrainian military help but said once on Russian territory they made their own independent decisions. The legion’s armored vehicles were mostly seized from Russian stocks captured in Ukraine, he said. He added that Kremlin reports of heavy losses among his guerrillas were ridiculous and exaggerated, asserting: “They dressed up dead bodies in Ukrainian uniforms and put them on TV. Ours look different. It was all a dumb lie.”

There have been accusations that the legion and another paramilitary force operating in Ukraine, the Russian Volunteer Corps, have connections with far-right organizations. Caesar was previously a member of the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM), an ultra-nationalist group that is publicly opposed to Putin but has also fielded pro-Russian fighters in the war since 2014.

[LFC]

Time to send in NATO naval forces to protect shipping in international waters. Inspections would have to occur well outside Ukrainian territorial waters because if Russian naval vessels come too close Ukraine will blow them up.

Russia has warned of its intention to inspect all vessels passing through the Black Sea.

Source: Russian media citing Sergey Vershinin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.

Vershinin stated that the Russian Federation will consider all ships travelling through the Black Sea as containing military cargo, but before taking any measures, it will inspect the ships.

Quote: "It is about the fact that we must ensure that the ship is carrying something bad. This means an inquiry, an inspection if necessary, to make sure if it is true or not," Vershinin said on Friday at a briefing in Moscow.

"There is no maritime humanitarian corridor anymore; now there is a zone of heightened military danger," the Russian said.

Background: On 19 July, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation announced that starting on midnight on 20 July, Russia will consider all vessels travelling to Ukrainian ports as those involved in a military conflict, regardless of flag.

Russia also said that terminating the grain deal means the withdrawal of shipping safety guarantees.

In response, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine issued a statement warning that from 21 July, all vessels going to the ports of the Russian Federation or ports in occupied Ukraine can be considered as carrying military cargo.

[LFC]

[LFC]

One of the better polling Republican candidates. Putin is trying to hold out until Jan '25 with the hopes of another Republican thug sitting in the White House.

[pnwguy]

Any bets on how this private jet came to crash?

www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-23-23/index.html

[indy]

Aug 23, 2023 18:16:18 GMT pnwguy said:

Any bets on how this private jet came to crash?

www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-23-23/index.html

Did it fall out of a really big window?

[LFC]

Aug 23, 2023 18:16:18 GMT pnwguy said:

Any bets on how this private jet came to crash?

www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-23-23/index.html

Already reported as an accidental mistargeting by Russian anti-aircraft. Uh, huh.

BTW there are also rumors flying around that Prigozhin wasn't actually aboard. It's Russia so who the f*** knows?

[goldenvalley]

Aug 24, 2023 1:19:13 GMT LFC said:

Aug 23, 2023 18:16:18 GMT pnwguy said:

Any bets on how this private jet came to crash?

www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-23-23/index.html

Already reported as an accidental mistargeting by Russian anti-aircraft. Uh, huh.

BTW there are also rumors flying around that Prigozhin wasn't actually aboard. It's Russia so who the f*** knows?

It just so happens that they're showing video of a plane falling and the burning debris.  How did it happen that someone was pointing a camera upwards at just the right time?

[indy]

Aug 24, 2023 1:19:13 GMT LFC said:

Aug 23, 2023 18:16:18 GMT pnwguy said:

Any bets on how this private jet came to crash?

www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-23-23/index.html

Already reported as an accidental mistargeting by Russian anti-aircraft. Uh, huh.

BTW there are also rumors flying around that Prigozhin wasn't actually aboard. It's Russia so who the f*** knows?

Hmmmm...This is one area where Putin has exhibited competence. Though as far as I can tell it remains unconfirmed, I think he was on board.

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