Russia

[andydp]

Well thought out article but with the proviso: plenty of conjecture on the "why".  Excellent and fast reading article. Plenty of info.

The curious case of Russia’s missing air force


Yet in the first two weeks of combat, Russia’s air force has played a minimal role. Air activity is difficult to track and Russian air strikes may have increased in both number and complexity in recent days. It is clear, though, that the Russian air force has held back its full capabilities. “Fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night,” notes Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London.

The BIG reason:

When hostilities began, Russia sent a volley of cruise and ballistic missiles towards Ukraine’s air bases in an attempt to ground its planes and air-defence systems, and to hobble its radars and anti-aircraft missiles. That effort failed. Ukraine had wisely dispersed its air-defence systems, making them harder to find. American defence officials say that Ukrainian air and missile defences consequently “remain effective and in use”—a claim that can be corroborated with open-source intelligence.


www.economist.com/interactive/2022/03/08/curious-case-russias-missing-air-force

[goldenvalley]

Mar 18, 2022 14:21:40 GMT andydp said:

Well thought out article but with the proviso: plenty of conjecture on the "why".  Excellent and fast reading article. Plenty of info.

The curious case of Russia’s missing air force


Yet in the first two weeks of combat, Russia’s air force has played a minimal role. Air activity is difficult to track and Russian air strikes may have increased in both number and complexity in recent days. It is clear, though, that the Russian air force has held back its full capabilities. “Fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night,” notes Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London.

The BIG reason:

When hostilities began, Russia sent a volley of cruise and ballistic missiles towards Ukraine’s air bases in an attempt to ground its planes and air-defence systems, and to hobble its radars and anti-aircraft missiles. That effort failed. Ukraine had wisely dispersed its air-defence systems, making them harder to find. American defence officials say that Ukrainian air and missile defences consequently “remain effective and in use”—a claim that can be corroborated with open-source intelligence.


www.economist.com/interactive/2022/03/08/curious-case-russias-missing-air-force

I know nothing but about any of this.  But throughout my life I was always under the impression that Soviets maintained a large modern military.  Did post Soviet Russia abandon that either intentionally or through graft and corruption?  

[indy]

Mar 18, 2022 19:38:25 GMT goldenvalley said:

Mar 18, 2022 14:21:40 GMT andydp said:

Well thought out article but with the proviso: plenty of conjecture on the "why".  Excellent and fast reading article. Plenty of info.

The curious case of Russia’s missing air force


Yet in the first two weeks of combat, Russia’s air force has played a minimal role. Air activity is difficult to track and Russian air strikes may have increased in both number and complexity in recent days. It is clear, though, that the Russian air force has held back its full capabilities. “Fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night,” notes Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London.

The BIG reason:

When hostilities began, Russia sent a volley of cruise and ballistic missiles towards Ukraine’s air bases in an attempt to ground its planes and air-defence systems, and to hobble its radars and anti-aircraft missiles. That effort failed. Ukraine had wisely dispersed its air-defence systems, making them harder to find. American defence officials say that Ukrainian air and missile defences consequently “remain effective and in use”—a claim that can be corroborated with open-source intelligence.


www.economist.com/interactive/2022/03/08/curious-case-russias-missing-air-force

I know nothing but about any of this.  But throughout my life I was always under the impression that Soviets maintained a large modern military.  Did post Soviet Russia abandon that either intentionally or through graft and corruption?  

Some of both. While the USSR was spending about 250 billion/yr (2019 dollars) in its last few years, Russia has come nowhere near that level, spending hardly anything until Putin took over and began to ramp it up. Even so, it amounts to a relatively paltry 50-60 billion/yr depending on who you ask which is still less the UK, and nowhere near the 700 billion/yr the US spends.

Corruption in the Russian military is legendary, of course, and includes stories of soldiers selling off diesel fuel along the roadside. But my own opinion is that the greatest corruption exists where it is hardest to see and account for, in 'research and development'. Money designated to 'modernize' Russia's armaments has probably been siphoned off wholesale.

[AnBr]

Mar 19, 2022 0:11:53 GMT indy said:

Some of both. While the USSR was spending about 250 billion/yr (2019 dollars) in its last few years, Russia has come nowhere near that level, spending hardly anything until Putin took over and began to ramp it up. Even so, it amounts to a relatively paltry 50-60 billion/yr depending on who you ask which is still less the UK, and nowhere near the 700 billion/yr the US spends.

Not that I want it to happen.

[indy]

Mar 19, 2022 11:11:28 GMT AnBr said:

Mar 19, 2022 0:11:53 GMT indy said:

Some of both. While the USSR was spending about 250 billion/yr (2019 dollars) in its last few years, Russia has come nowhere near that level, spending hardly anything until Putin took over and began to ramp it up. Even so, it amounts to a relatively paltry 50-60 billion/yr depending on who you ask which is still less the UK, and nowhere near the 700 billion/yr the US spends.

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Not that I want it to happen.

Well, nobody else has a chance against NATO in a conventional war. Demographically, the USSR once had legions of young people to sacrifice for its dreams of glory. As recently as 1950 the median age of Russians was 24 and it was something like 16 in the early 1900s. Now it's 42 which is even higher than the US. That's the thing that technology really buys you on the battlefield, a shift away from the importance of rank and file soldiers which is extremely important in aging populations. I wonder how many years you would have to go back in US military deaths attributable to action to equal the number of deaths the Russians have suffered in the last 3 weeks? I bet it is quite a few.

[jackd]

Of course, should it come to it, how battle ready is NATO?

[LFC]

Mar 19, 2022 15:51:58 GMT jackd said:

Of course, should it come to it, how battle ready is NATO?

Depends upon the battle. If it's simply taking territory and obliterating civilians and their homes I would be no problemo. Scorched earth is a lot easier than fighting for occupation while leaving a nation mostly intact, a lesson Putin has clearly learned.

[jackd]

Well, suppose they made a punitive strike against one of the NATO countries, other than the US, who are supplying Ukraine.

[LFC]

Mar 19, 2022 16:42:26 GMT jackd said:

Well, suppose they made a punitive strike against one of the NATO countries, other than the US, who are supplying Ukraine.

I'd be nervous to have to count on how well the NATO nations would function as a responsive unit. And since any attack would almost assuredly be by long-range missiles I don't have a clue where they'd attack for fear of setting of WWIII.

[indy]

Mar 19, 2022 15:51:58 GMT jackd said:

Of course, should it come to it, how battle ready is NATO?

Well, you never really know until you see them. One thing is for damn sure, though, and that is that Russia isn't battle ready.

[jackd]

True; I'm thinking of the recent shuttling in of troops and the problem of coordination of units from different countries who, to my knowledge, have not been in coordinated training for the potential missions here.

[andydp]

Mar 20, 2022 1:56:12 GMT jackd said:

True; I'm thinking of the recent shuttling in of troops and the problem of coordination of units from different countries who, to my knowledge, have not been in coordinated training for the potential missions here.

If you read the news today, some Marines were killed in Norway while taking part in a NATO exercise.  

That is just one of the many coordination and joint exercises NATO does throughout the year.  If its not a map exercise, its an actual boots on the ground scenario.  NATO has spent many years making sure the various countries are using the same play book.  If you get handed a "Firing Folder" (Very complex demolition plan) from a Norwegian, it will have the same format that everyone else is familiar with.   I'm familiar with Army based scenarios, but Air and Naval forces do the same joint exercises.  Command, control and coordination (C3) has been a major emphasis in the US Military solely because of the many nations involved.

Based on what is happening in the Ukraine, I can see the Russian Military may be having vast coordination problems.  Their logistical tail is constantly under attack.  Equipment is breaking down.  We mentioned the rampant corruption in the Russian Military.  Historically it was always there.  While there is universal conscription, I can guarantee the oligarch's kids don't get to play with the mujiks. 

 

[jackd]

Even in the day of our draft(when I was in), by and large the oligarch's kids didn't play with the mujiks. The use of hypersonic rockets would suggest that Russia's military isn't completely outmoded.

ETA: I meant our oligarch's kids and our mujiks.  Donald Trump comes to mind.

[indy]

It's not just the oligarch's kids that avoid conscription. It's pretty universal above slightly upper middle class.

[jackd]

Feudalism lives!

[indy]

Modern Russian conscripts are largely uneducated, rural, and ethnically diverse, including a lot of immigrants. They are paid next to nothing (something like $30/mo IIRC) and the food and housing is compared unfavorably to that of Russian prisons. Many of them are requested (i.e., forced) to sign on as contract soldiers during their conscription. Guess what jobs conscripts in the Russian army get? Mostly logistics based ones. These are the guys tasked with moving the trucks around every month so the tires don't rot.

My view of war (and it is certainly not unique) is that it is all about the logistics. If you can't move the stuff you need to where you need it when you need it, you will lose. It is complicated stuff and it requires an educated, professional, and motivated military staff to do it well. Hence, we are where we are today.

None of this is to say that Russia can't simply pound Ukraine into rubble. I think they probably can. But something will probably give before then.

[andydp]

Mar 21, 2022 12:58:44 GMT indy said:

Modern Russian conscripts are largely uneducated, rural, and ethnically diverse, including a lot of immigrants. They are paid next to nothing (something like $30/mo IIRC) and the food and housing is compared unfavorably to that of Russian prisons. Many of them are requested (i.e., forced) to sign on as contract soldiers during their conscription. Guess what jobs conscripts in the Russian army get? Mostly logistics based ones. These are the guys tasked with moving the trucks around every month so the tires don't rot.

My view of war (and it is certainly not unique) is that it is all about the logistics.  If you can't move the stuff you need to where you need it when you need it, you will lose. It is complicated stuff and it requires an educated, professional, and motivated military staff to do it well. Hence, we are where we are today.

None of this is to say that Russia can't simply pound Ukraine into rubble. I think they probably can. But something will probably give before then.

There is an old adage in the military:  "amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics".  When Napoleon said an "Army marches on its stomach", he was correct.  Prior to the massive Napoleonic armies, they would get their needs (forage) from the local area.  Then armies got too big to do that.  Canned foods were developed, use of trains became commonplace both for supplies and troops.  Its estimated for every person on the front line there are ten support troops.

[LFC]

Mar 21, 2022 15:05:18 GMT andydp said:

There is an old adage in the military:  "amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics".  When Napoleon said an "Army marches on its stomach", he was correct.  Prior to the massive Napoleonic armies, they would get their needs (forage) from the local area.  Then armies got too big to do that.  Canned foods were developed, use of trains became commonplace both for supplies and troops.  Its estimated for every person on the front line there are ten support troops.

Gen. Sherman broke that mold and went back to foraging for his famous march, and apparently they foraged pretty successfully. I remember my Civil War teacher in college saying something like Sherman brought along 5,000 head of cattle to feed his troops and by the time they were done they had "a mere 20,000 head left."

[indy]

That's why most modern armies have an entire core of PROFESSIONALS who handle it. Russia has amateurs handling it. They can't even seem to resupply the units on their own border fer Christ's sake.

[indy]

To quote Stalin "Every society is three meals away from chaos." Reportedly, here are Russians bringing the quote to life:

[goldenvalley]

Mar 21, 2022 15:35:58 GMT indy said:

To quote Stalin "Every society is three meals away from chaos." Reportedly, here are Russians bringing the quote to life:

He oughta' know and most of the deaths were in Ukraine.

[LFC]

A TPM reader from Finland (paywalled) wrote about how important Trump and the Republican Party have been to Putin as political assets. I think the assessment sounds fair. If you know that the single biggest actor who might block you is bought and paid for you can be a lot more brazen in your domination of other nations.

A Note from TPM Reader JI from Finland …

Then the very important point related to the role of the USA in the current Ukraine affairs (sorry I cannot write this rant in English in a short format). This is a point of view of a person living next door to Russia, having a long cultural experience about their behavior.

I think you folks in the USA have not even started to realise the role of your internal politics in the long game of Russia! At least you collectively behave as if you were ignorant of it.

Seen from here, Russias main CONCRETE interests are in conquering the neighbouring countries, partially or wholly, politically or physically. Such as the Ukraine and the Belorussia, perhaps also other countries in the future. Of course they also want to influence the USA otherwise, but let’s skip that now. Let’s look at the role of the USA in the direct land grabbing/neighbor-pressuring case.

In short, I see your role for the Russians as a tool, as a rebound board, or as a western backdoor to Europe.

Since Western Europe and the USA together (in the form of NATO and otherwise) has been too strong for Russia to expand, and since the USA is the greatest military backup fortress of NATO/Europe, they simply circumvented Europe and went to the core of the power using the kitchen door, the internal political structure of the USA.

I understand you would like to see your heroic country as the navel of the world and as the main focus of any operation, but I am sorry to inform that, in this case, you are only cheap tools. You had to be weakened (and Britain manipulated to Brexit etc) in order to facilitate invasions to Ukraine, Belarussia and a list of other neighboring pieces of land in Putin’s future Menu.

So, as a KGB officer would plan, they came exactly from the opposite direction than where they were expected. They professionally built an operation web among the rural redneck cowboys, evangelical christians, the NRA, the most republican of all republicans, your law enforcement, some military people, big business etc etc. They popped up to the surface from within the “core americans”, but their long dive before that was planned and had started from the Kremlin’s operation board.

They nearly succeeded with Trump/GOP in January 6th, by focusing and coordinating the heat of seemingly “spontaneus”, “random” protest movements and legal tricks and corrupt politicians like a welding flame to the same point and to the same moment. They just barely failed – for the time being!

Had Trump succeeded to keep in power, the march of Putin to various targets in the Eastern Europe would have been more like an easy summer parade. Nato would be partally paralyzed by his loyal friends in the White House (who likely would have got their personal share of the profits).

It was no coincidence that some crucial (and criminal) incidents of the Trump term had to do with the Ukraine. It was one of Putin’s main targets already then. Trump was because of Ukraine, not vice versa! GOP (short for “Girlfriends Of Putin”??) just blocked any consequences for him.

Through this lengthy backround I am finally coming to the current day and the Ukraine war. Yes, it is very good that Mr. Biden has been clear and concise about the war. It is good that he has promised weapon help to the Ukrainians. It is good that the sanctions are slowly biting. And it is good to keep an eye on China, as well. But a big BUT:

YOU ARE STILL KEEPING THE KITCHEN DOOR WIDE OPEN!!!! And now you are even securing it firmly to the open position!

Neither Trump nor any significant member of the GOP has been held accountable. After a year, your DOJ has not even STARTED TO QUESTION some main suspects of pressuring phone calls to election officials. The congress committee has, but without teeth to enforce. Are you really trying to sell the audience that a poor black pickpocket/shop burglar would be delayed even the first interrogation more than a year!!??!! Gimme a f**king break! And even on this very second the GOP is working in three shifts to make the next election even more rigged than the previous one. And you are just going to let it happen.. Tralala!

So, if you really want to do something for the Ukraine, for the Europe and to any other decent country or person, please also Do. Your. Own. Homework! Show to both your home audience and to the rest of the world that also the western flank of Putin’s army, the one located in your country, is kept accountable! No special treatment, just f**king enforce your old existing laws to ultra-rich/influential white dudes, as well! You are just tools, but you are very important tools for Putin also in the European front. Don’t let him use you.

I am bringing this letter to an end, Josh, thanks for your patience. I appreciate the journalism of your team and wish to support it concretely. But maybe you understand above why my whole interest in the US business has lagged, since by your collective inaction in your seemingly internal affairs, you let so bad things happen in the whole world.

[goldenvalley]

That was fascinating.  Thanks for posting the email from Finland.  

It's become apparent to me that Americans, especially the neocons who adventured in Iraq, were busy playing Cold War chess type games while the Russians were using the internet to create a new sort of warfare.  Were we too stupid or arrogant to recognize it, was there no intelligence agency following all that went on in Europe and the UK and here?  

[jackd]

I don't think it was Cold War chess; I think they wanted the oil.

[LFC]

More on the "Christian" Russian Orthodox Church and they're support of indiscriminate slaughter of women and children.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church has defended Russia’s actions and blamed the conflict on the West.

ss support for the invasion of a country where millions of people belong to his own church has led critics to conclude that Orthodox leadership has become little more than an arm of the state – and that this is the role it usually plays.

The reality is much more complicated. The relationship between Russian church and state has undergone profound historical transformations, not least in the past century – a focus of my work as a scholar of Eastern Orthodoxy. The church’s current support for the Kremlin is not inevitable or predestined, but a deliberate decision that needs to be understood.

A deliberate decision to obtain power, nothing more, nothing less.