|
|
Post by Rue Bella on Aug 7, 2024 0:28:06 GMT
Some funny stuff out there now.
Even though I haven't watched one in years, I'm planning on watching the upcoming Dem convention. Well, some of it.
|
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 7, 2024 17:35:19 GMT
So what the heck is going on here? Trump has ONE event scheduled this week...in Montana. I just read they are expecting more than 50 thousand at the Detroit rally for Harris. The Trump campaign is going idle while article after article and airtime of coverage is given to large Democratic rallies, followed by the convention? Seems pretty suspicious.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rue Bella on Aug 7, 2024 20:50:10 GMT
To some extent, wouldn't the difference between their schedules be a matter of logistics? To have a rally, venues have to be booked, permits gotten, police and fire codes met, barricades rented, vendors of food and campaign stuff, porta-potties, and advance advertising to get thousands of people to show up. How long does it take to get a series of large rallies together? Weeks?
After the first debate, with polls going his way, Trump thought he had it in the bag. He's a lazy guy, and he is almost 80. Perhaps he thought right before the dem convention would be a good time to relax and play some golf.
Then everything changed overnight, and it was too late for Trump to do much more than smaller interviews like the YouTube chair-sniffer streamer who gave him the Rolex, 'twitter' rants, and calling into Fox. Maybe they just got caught flat-footed.
On the other hand, there has been speculation that before Biden passed the baton, the dems were working behind the scenes to get things together for the roll-out of their new candidate. That could have included scheduling rallies. And they hit the ground running, what we are seeing now.
|
|
AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
|
Post by AnBr on Aug 7, 2024 21:08:41 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 8, 2024 13:43:26 GMT
Yeah, I obviously don't know what is going on with the Trump campaign. Very few field offices, virtually no events, basically just MIA with less than 3 months to go. JD Vance has been following Harris/Walz around and holding 'events' with like 50 people. Seems just bizarre.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rue Bella on Aug 8, 2024 16:43:36 GMT
Trump is not cancelling rallies - he just doesn't seem to have planned larger in-person events. He just does not want to be there anymore. Maybe a nice quiet jail cell with a practice green in the courtyard is sounding good. It would not be a total surprise if Trump dropped out closer to November. After, of course, he and Lara have finished cleaning out the GOP coffers. Although Steve Schmidt helped launch Ms. Palin, I enjoy some of his rants. From today: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkJ4kigOZZo |
|
|
|
Post by goldenvalley on Aug 8, 2024 20:23:03 GMT
I suspect the professional campaign team Trump has decided to keep him out of the public eye for anything but the occasional rally and interview with a friendly network. He reverts to his tried and true grievance list with the occasional death by shark v. death by electrocution or Hannibal Lector riffs in any setting they put him in. The team will just have to get him elected without having him around much. And then, of course, the outside the campaign plans to prevent certification of results so that the election will get thrown into the House of Representatives.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rue Bella on Aug 9, 2024 1:37:57 GMT
|
|
AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
|
Post by AnBr on Aug 9, 2024 14:58:33 GMT
Remember that even though he and Nicolle Wallace pulled Palin out of the woodwork, after working with her long enough Palin is the reason that neither could bring themselves to vote for McCain. While they still believed in McCain, they could not vote for her to be placed one heartbeat from the Presidency. |
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 9, 2024 15:59:41 GMT
And as I suspected Keri Lake will likely help Dems hold the Senate.
ETA: I am completely unfamiliar with this pollster and 538 has a rating (like a C grade) for a "HighGround Inc." which is probably the same one. However, this is the second recent poll out of AZ that has Harris up by around 2 so ?.
|
|
andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,012
|
Post by andydp on Aug 9, 2024 18:22:00 GMT
On the other hand, there has been speculation that before Biden passed the baton, the dems were working behind the scenes to get things together for the roll-out of their new candidate. That could have included scheduling rallies. And they hit the ground running, what we are seeing now. I may have said this here already, but the Pelosi Touch is very evident: Keep the GOP going on the Sleepy Joe route while you get the VP ready to go. They let the GOP go down a garden path thinking Biden was going to be the standard bearer and soft target. Then, after the GOP gets their strategy set: Surprise !! "We changed our mind. Here's new candidate, have fun with that." Maybe this is the "October Surprise". |
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 10, 2024 13:25:31 GMT
Well, it appears that Trump doesn't have another event scheduled for at least 2 weeks. This is not normal for any campaign, ever. Of course, Trump is his own kind of unconventional so normal isn't really something to lean on, but what the heck?
|
|
|
|
Post by Rue Bella on Aug 10, 2024 17:54:52 GMT
Well, it appears that Trump doesn't have another event scheduled for at least 2 weeks. This is not normal for any campaign, ever. Of course, Trump is his own kind of unconventional so normal isn't really something to lean on, but what the heck? I know these events are standard, but does holding large, public events really matter? Do they move the needle even in swing states? Do they reach/influence as many people as Trump calling into Fox, or Truth Social tirades, or having a less expensive, faster, easier network-covered 'press conference', or talking with Elon on Twitter? Maybe large in-person rallies have become an out-dated, inefficient political tool, especially for what seems a sinking campaign. Maybe he should offer chicken nuggets in every pot. I wasn't following it, but didn't Trump get this current nomination by doing very little campaigning? Maybe he thought he could slide through the Biden campaign, doing the same thing? Trump has had a talent for successfully exposing himself to the public. (so to speak) And then 3 weeks after the Biden debate, things changed... |
|
|
|
Post by goldenvalley on Aug 10, 2024 19:31:02 GMT
Well, it appears that Trump doesn't have another event scheduled for at least 2 weeks. This is not normal for any campaign, ever. Of course, Trump is his own kind of unconventional so normal isn't really something to lean on, but what the heck? I know these events are standard, but does holding large, public events really matter? *** Rallies matter to Trump. He clearly enjoyed the energy of a large crowd cheering for him in 2016. In 2020 they again mattered to Trump and his followers. Post 1/6 I heard a number of people interviewed who were sure Trump won the election because "look at all the people at his rallies, Biden didn't have any." So they think rallies are some sort of sign too. In regular campaigns...there are lots of speaking engagements with donor groups and small groups of all sorts in the various states. Staying home and playing golf is not something presidential candidates do. |
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 10, 2024 20:16:29 GMT
Politico is reporting that someone has sent them Trump's internal campaign documents.
This should be interesting.
|
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 10, 2024 20:19:01 GMT
Well, it appears that Trump doesn't have another event scheduled for at least 2 weeks. This is not normal for any campaign, ever. Of course, Trump is his own kind of unconventional so normal isn't really something to lean on, but what the heck? I know these events are standard, but does holding large, public events really matter? Do they move the needle even in swing states? Do they reach/influence as many people as Trump calling into Fox, or Truth Social tirades, or having a less expensive, faster, easier network-covered 'press conference', or talking with Elon on Twitter? Maybe large in-person rallies have become an out-dated, inefficient political tool, especially for what seems a sinking campaign. Maybe he should offer chicken nuggets in every pot.
Well, that might true but then why was he doing them three weeks ago but now he's not? My theory? Three weeks ago he was shot at.
|
|
|
|
Post by goldenvalley on Aug 11, 2024 1:32:11 GMT
I know these events are standard, but does holding large, public events really matter? Do they move the needle even in swing states? Do they reach/influence as many people as Trump calling into Fox, or Truth Social tirades, or having a less expensive, faster, easier network-covered 'press conference', or talking with Elon on Twitter? Maybe large in-person rallies have become an out-dated, inefficient political tool, especially for what seems a sinking campaign. Maybe he should offer chicken nuggets in every pot.
Well, that might true but then why was he doing them three weeks ago but now he's not? My theory? Three weeks ago he was shot at.
Maybe, but I think his more professional campaign staff realized in the Republican Convention that he won't stay on script. And then with Biden dropping out and Harris dropping in they realized all the more that he is not looking good in those rallies...the crowds are very big anymore. He screwed up the Black Journalists interviews big time. It's all one big grievance fest with him. I think they just want to keep him quiet. |
|
AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
|
Post by AnBr on Aug 11, 2024 8:55:21 GMT
Now: The campaign blamed “foreign sources hostile to the United States”
Then: “Russia Iran, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to...”
|
|
AnBr
Associate Professor
Posts: 1,819
|
Post by AnBr on Aug 11, 2024 9:03:29 GMT
Well, that might true but then why was he doing them three weeks ago but now he's not? My theory? Three weeks ago he was shot at.
Maybe, but I think his more professional campaign staff realized in the Republican Convention that he won't stay on script. And then with Biden dropping out and Harris dropping in they realized all the more that he is not looking good in those rallies...the crowds are very big anymore. He screwed up the Black Journalists interviews big time. It's all one big grievance fest with him. I think they just want to keep him quiet. These are not mutually exclusive. His staff might be keeping him under wraps because he won't stay on script AND he allows them because he is a chicken shit and is scared to be out in the open. |
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 11, 2024 13:40:19 GMT
It's obviously all speculation, but given Trump's reported love of these things and the fact that he hasn't seemed very controllable in the past when it comes to indulging himself, I'm not sure his staff could keep him in check if he wanted to do them. Maybe his reaction to the attempt and what the staff wanted happened to dovetail nicely in this particular instance? Trump seems pretty prone to conspiracy theories so maybe someone convinced him the secret service can't be trusted.
Personally, I kind of like the respite from the nonstop images/news of him.
I don't think rolling the campaign into a fetal position and hoping for the best is a good strategy for a party that has lost the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections but \_(ツ)_/¯. |
|
|
|
Post by Rue Bella on Aug 11, 2024 14:18:22 GMT
Trump is not easy to control even in steep mental decline. Perhaps encouraging him to lay low in his current state is better than having him babbling away in full display in arenas. What exposure does get out via his daily rabid Tweets, the interview with the black reporters, and his home-made news conference is bad enough. Even the story of his campaign being hacked by Iran, in June. How much of that is actually true?
I try to avoid listening to or watching Mr Trump. I didn't even know he'd been shot at for a day or two. I can't avoid it all however, and when comparing videos of him from a few years ago, and now, his continued physical and mental decline are significant. If 'they' can, maybe keeping him out of sight is a better strategy than campaigning as usual. Set free, what else would they get? - more fictional stories about helicopters and Willie Brown?
As someone recently said, if he were your elderly relative, it would be time to take away the car keys.
|
|
|
|
Post by goldenvalley on Aug 11, 2024 18:02:30 GMT
As someone recently said, if he were your elderly relative, it would be time to take away the car keys. LOL at this sentence because this is the line those who wanted Biden out used. I remember long ago reading an Australian reporter's comments on Trump who said reading Trump's words were one thing, but seeing him saying them (the whole spiel) was to really get an understanding of what he was. That's even more true now. I see video clips of the things he has said, but I don't think they are nearly as useful as seeing the full thing. That's where you see how he moves from grievance to grievance, riffing further if he gets an audience response, and how seamlessly he moves from outrageousness to outrageousness. |
|
|
|
Post by indy on Aug 12, 2024 22:58:56 GMT
The 20,000 foot look at shifts in the polling averages in the last 4 weeks: National D+5.8 States WI D+5.4 MI D+8.3 GA D+10.3 AZ D+11.2
ETA: Usual polling caveats here and polling is still pretty thin but there definitely looks to be movement.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rue Bella on Aug 13, 2024 13:21:16 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by goldenvalley on Aug 13, 2024 19:51:39 GMT
I'm more concerned about his henchmen and opportunists who are seeding the ground for election fraud charges, getting sympathetic state legislators and governors to declare a pro Trump list of electors and sending the election into the House for resolution. In short, it may not matter if cultists stay home if all those things happen. That's bad for democracy and it will take generations to recover from it. I feel badly for young voters who think politics and presidential elections are always this way. |
|
